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Just woke up to another SPY scalp trade this morning. The SPY opened right at 462 which is support. Now as It goes up, I'm keeping a hair trigger on the exit button.Comment -
Next stop for the SPY is $454. Probably not today, hell there usually isn't anything happening on this day, and it closes too soon anyway, but watch out for Monday's open and don't be surprised if you see another opportunity like this morning staring you in da face with the SPY hanging out near the $454 level in the pre-market.Comment -
VIX pumping, DXY is sitting exactly where it was during March 2020...this could get interesting fast...Dark pools are buying the dip but they might just be getting started, too much fukkery in this market for my taste
i am just looking to add to my bags of uranium and a new position in copper...building an overweight position in CPNG...
I really don’t have much to say about the new mutant, the virus is gonna be around until infinity so I really doubt any sustainable lockdown happens in the USA unless having prior Covid infection or vaccines are useless and our hospital resources get hammered hard, haven’t seen any evidence of it yet...Comment -
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Most governments and media are suddenly, today, all at the same time - going full-court press on a new variant with 4 known cases in South Africa.<br><br>Must be a coincidence.</p>— Catturd ™ (@catturd2) <a href="https://twitter.com/catturd2/status/1464388642042957825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >November 27, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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OK I'm back from a day of being outside playing with chainsaws and after my 6th beer I thought it may be a good tim eto sit down and get a handle on just what the f is going on in the markets. The Covid thing is just the catalyst as I always say, the underlying market stuff has been telling me to get ready for a pull back. I think next week maybe for the next 2 to 3 weeks if things hit just right, we will be looking for some downside movement. Bond Yields will be moving up and that means I'll be taking short positions in the QQQs.
Since the close on Tuesday, I've been nailing the inflection points in the SPY with (mostly) pin point accuracy like a stud horse on Cialis. Let's review, I told you Tuesday evening to buy SPY calls when the SPY got to $465 and to sell in the range from $469.75 to $471 before the close on Wednesday.
On Wednesday the price couldn't make it all the way to $469.75, but I'll try to do better and just accept the $469.57 as a close enough and book that big ass profit off of the short term call options.
Then today I woke up still hung over and celebrating the Bills beat down of the Saints with that Christmas Cash I was getting ready to go shopping with and discovered that overnight, the bottom fell out and there was another significant trade on the board this morning right off the open. Yet another trade I told you about last Tuesday when I stated that the markets hair would be on fire if the SPY got down to $462. The market opened and bounced to $463.80ish, doesn't sound like much, but when you buy calls at $2 and those go to $3 in about 6 minutes, I don't know many people who wouldn't say yeah give me some of that.
Then as a Bone Us, I told you the next stop was $454. That's your cue to buy puts for next Friday. Well maybe not the next Friday, but at least Monday as I said it probably wouldn't get there today which it didn't, but it will be there soon enough. As it stands now from the $463.80 level that SPY closed today at $459. I contend that the selling isn't done yet, but expect a bounce at $454. I'll buy some same day calls at that level for another scalp trade knowing that the rest of the week is going lower. That will most likely happen on Monday after the Fauci gets everyone who still listens to him all skerred on Meet the Depressed and Deface the Nation on Sunday morning.
And now for the next prediction straight from my sweaty crystal ballz. After the bounce off of $454 for the SPY and at the same time $388.50 for the QQQs (funny how they seem to hit support and resistance about the same time allot of the time). Wait for the bounce, and buy PUTS that expire in late December, at what ever the strike price is nearest to the current price for the QQQs. Those things are going to go down like my 1st wife on any garage band member who know how to pound a couple of drums.
Yet another Christmas cash from the Slurry Pumper, I don't want to hear any excuses about how you got wiped out with those TSLA, AAPL, AMAT, NFLX, or other tech stonks because you were buying the dip. This dip aint over yet son, it has a few weeks in my opinion.Comment -
Well the futures worked their way down after the close on Friday to get close to $454, and now about 1/2 hour before game time we have the pre-market already producing a significant bounce. It has a way to go, but they are in the gap from Friday and working their way up. Its still got some work to do to get to 470ish. I don't think they get there either today or tomorrow, or maybe they do, maybe they will fill the gap from Friday, it still looks like a selling spot for me to hit the QQQ's. I'm still holding onto my Puts I got on Friday. No doubt being fueled by earlier profits, I can take the pain up towards $470.
Its a sell the rip scene in my view until they can get to and above 470 on the SPY, and then the break out rally would need to gain speed for me to get out of the shorting positions. If that happens, the short covering would be massive from myself and all the other short players and would likely make the 475 - 480 range come into play and the QQQs would really take off as well, the trend would be intact with the holiday rally and everyone would be in euphoric mode.Comment -
Alrighty the bottom fell out just as Powell came out and said the new China Virus variant is going to be a problem. Yeah, that and a few other things he's not telling you about. I know I said 454, but this is the second time hanging around just above that level, and that usually means that level isn't the level we are looking for. So how about some fresh numbers. $451.50, $450, and $448.50. Of course lately the market has been coming up short of my numbers and giving me the feeling of being left behind, but at least I didn't just buy the highs yesterday like a schmuck. I hope you didn't either, because I warned you not to do that. Anything under 454 and I'm cashing out those puts I bought last Friday however, and I may do it anyway if there is another gap up tomorrow and the gap isn't above $459. I need to get out of these things by Friday and it maybe just time to get what I can and start a new position to short the QQQs at some other high point with a longer time span into the end of the December time frame to give it some room and time to fall apart properly.Comment -
Well everyday, I just give out the winning stock look ahead for the next day. Today we had a gap up over $459 in the SPY, so I held onto my PUTS and then the the QQQs got to a great even $400 which is both recent support and resistance. A perfect spot to load up on the PUTS that expire at the end of the month. I also bought some PUTS for the SPY with the same expiration which is also at a good level of resistance $465 (actually 464.50). Then as if on que, the bottom fell out and just as I had thought, $454 on the SPY was not any support. Yeah the tape stopped there for about 20 minutes, but it continued down and then around the $452 level, I sold the some of the PUTS I just bought with a 10 dollar swing in a few hours, sold the old SPY PUTS from Friday, and then started to make a position for the CALLS. When I put up 3 numbers for knife catching like that, I usually do 16.6%, 33.3%, then 50 percent as the numbers are reach to make a single position. That way if it comes up a little short at least I have a small stake in the game, and if it gets to the final number before the turn, I don't feel too bad about a loss if the price continues to cut through the numbers. So tomorrow, I'll pick up more calls if and when the SPY gets to $450ish, then the rest of the wad at 484.50. Then if the market is just pounding the downside, I'm out at $447.25. The QQQs for that matter should get a reaction at the $383 level.
Lets see what happens, today was a harsh day to buy the dip for people and I know that several people got their asses handed to them. Tomorrow just may be a continuation of today with another bear pounding. If so where on the SPY is another spot where we can expect another bounce. Lets try $435, and if it gets there by Monday or Tuesday next week we will be in full on WTF mode. Of course I'll be looking for a new house at that point. hell just the last week is paying for my annual 10 ounce gold chunk purchase that I make every year for my degenerate kids.Comment -
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Josher if we had more data on OMICRON then I would agree with you but until we gather more data about how transmissible it is and more importantly how deadly it is compared to prior variants, I think the market will continue to be very shaky and the sellers will be ready to pull the trigger at the tiniest bits of "scary news".Comment -
with Jpow saying taper will be faster, a quicker rate hike is getting priced in...have to assume the santa rally they keep peddling on cnbc ain't happening and there's gonna be some sad robinhood kids for XmasComment -
I think they are gonna have to delay the rake hike because of this new Omicron variant. So I am expecting stocks to rebound.Comment -
Yeah idk, we had a similar setup going into late 2018 and got nuked hard, market does not care about our feelings once the fed takes toys away, we ate like fattys last year... once you heard those fed chairs were selling their positions for “moral” reasons it was borrowed time.
Jpow got renominated and in less than a week turns hawkish... coincidence I’m sure.
Also tax hikes expected so greater than usual selling of profitable winners to avoid even larger taxes if Dems raise gains tax.
Even Elon who never did anything but collect his options salary ended up selling.Comment -
Mixed market this morning with the Nasdaq pointing down and the S&P pointing up. Looks like those 3 areas I targeted might be the bounce opportunity I was talking about. I already bought at 452 on the SPY, if the SPY gets caught in a range just below $455 for say more than 3 hourly candle closes and can't get going, then those 450 and 448 numbers I sited are off the table when it comes back down. One of these days we are going to get a rip you a new one rally, and that rally will stick going into the close of the day. Of course just how high the rally goes will determine if we keep climbing or if there is a decline for the next day.
Its the roller coaster high volatility market. Traders dream actually although it doesn't do anyone else any good.Comment -
I almost forgot, the QQQs are setting up for a bouncey spot here around the $383ish level. Given the volatile high movement market, I'm doing the 16.6% thing at $384, 33.3% at $383, and the last 50% at $382. I really don't think it makes it to 382 but those are my own rules of the knife catching road so I will follow them.Comment -
Vix is having and inside day and you’d think omicron was next holacaust...also Biden coming out with winter Covid plan...I am loading on UVXY hereComment -
Didn't quite make it to $450 on the SPY today so the bounce took off with me only having a 16.6% position. Where are they going to, how an old favorite spot 462?, then maybe even 465ish. It will all depend on how those phony jobs numbers are tomorrow. If I have to bet and lets face it I do, I would guess they goose it so that 462 to 465 would be on the table. How about those who took the QQQs, it didn't happen for me but if you happen to be long the QQQs, I would be looking at 396, and even maybe another run at 400 if things get going well enough.
What about if they kill the jobs numbers and the SPY comes back down? Well things were left at the alter this morning around $450 on the SPY but they have been there before so I think they may spike it and plunge down to 448-447 area before thinking about bouncing.Comment -
Okay I got an AI signal for a likely pull back on the VIX...
Transports are holding up so I don't think this is the real mccoy
I have been eyeballing btc miners and exchanges very closely...I am adding more HUT & MSTR calls hereComment -
Closed the UVXY, watch for another inside day on Monday. If we don’t get a large bearish engulfing pullback reloading...
taking a shot on a leveraged IWM FD, TNA 78c Dec 10Comment -
Well the jobs numbers came out and the market pulled right on back to just above the 448 buying spot, with a jam it into the close effect to almost 454. Not looking for that follow through on Monday however.Comment -
Man I wish the TVIX was still listed...this week would have been one to remember...hope you are doing well bud...don’t be afraid to shoot me some NFL winners
still bullish Uranium, UUUU around $7 is calling me.
Oil looks poised for rebound now as well
they are obviously using Fed/Jpow to threaten rate hikes to lower the froth in market...this in hand gets build back better deal done because a threat of recession makes being against a job creating bill more bipartisan. Also this could happen into mid terms. There is still a ton of money sitting in banks and speculative markets they are trying to draw out...the volatility this week was great...hope it continuesComment -
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Slurry and TRobber, you guys have the tech analysis down and you are smart as a whip, but you've gotta dumb it down for us masses LOL
so my buddy is a medical director and Aetna and is following the pandemic closely.
he says that while Fauci and other leading epidemiologists say we will know much more within a few weeks, the true numbers on hospitalizations and deaths on the Omicron variant, should be looked at very closely the last week of the year right as the Santa Claus rally is hopefully taking effect.Comment -
Market I think will keep bleeding out into options expiration dec 15 then your one week of soft rally to make everyone feel better into Xmas, then more pain,
to me we already know the virus is more mild than original covid19 and delta variant...this is literally just a coordinator media narrative created to take the money they were gonna take anyway. It’s basically a scapegoat story to not focus on Fed policy shift.
the threat of raising rates is getting priced in, because if rates increase, risk assets like stocks trading at absurd P/E will get even more pummeled.
also, I believe the bond market is telling you if they raise rates too soon we could go into a really bad recession.
my advise would be to have a more balanced portfolio with some high dividend stocks versus continuing to pile into high growth, as they could be limping down or sideways for next year or two.
if trading, and you are buying on a Green Day or two bc you think we are going into Up only again, you are doing it backwards.Comment -
Financial Astrologer says weakness after Christmas with Big Down Day December 30th.
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Bullish on medical treatment tents for Covid vaccinated sufferers
True story...I legit had a patient who came in for routine visit...she asked me if I could refer her for Botox injections...minutes later I asked bc I saw she hadn’t had her Covid shot...she is 65y/o...she goes on and on for 5 minutes about evil Covid shots...but minutes ago was asking me to get her in for a known paralytic toxin to be injected into her face...unrealComment -
Most people I talk to are more concerned over the government Omicron reaction than the Omicron variant.
I think the Omicron is just the catalyst or excuse. This market is at a point of being very toppy. The FED is in a box and has nothing but words to use. Add that to the FED no longer being independent and you have a full court press of politics regarding the Built Back Broke routine.
They are going to pass something, but whatever that is, it will be inflationary. Our march through the retroactive path of the 70s continues with stagflation next year. The build back busted money isn't going to come into play for regular people and until we find a way to get off of the cheap stuff we buy from the rest of the world things will be in bad shape.
Next week I actually think things bounce up a little. I fully expect the SPY to visit the $448ish level again on Monday, but I will be loading up and switching my short positions for a expected choppy but gradual move up into the end of the year.Comment -
Like Bal / Pit und 44.5 today.
Got S.F earlier this week at -2, its my big investment of the week, but think -3.5 is OK even though I would try to get off the hook.
Miami was on my list but that number is up around a td now so that is off for me.
Phi -5.5 is on my list as well.Comment -
FvKK the NFL, Boys!
looking forward to seeing the stock futures in about 6 hrs from now.Comment
