Laying horses - Starting from Feb-12-2018

[Gaze73]

This thread is headed to disaster. You're chasing fool's gold. I've been laying for a long time and the only horses I can lay profitably are favorites. Every year a couple of 1000/1 long shots win, what makes you think your 200/1s are different? And it's not even about luck, I've seen such ultra long shots win by 10-15 lengths. My prediction is you'll go to +3500 and then 2 big winners will put you down to -500 and you'll see it's pointless.

[arie1985]

surprised u lasted this long.


on side note i read an book on vacation the other week the hyperion legacy u might like it

easy read about horses and murder mystery......some uk author

Any chance for a summary what does the book say?

[arie1985]

This thread is headed to disaster. You're chasing fool's gold. I've been laying for a long time and the only horses I can lay profitably are favorites. Every year a couple of 1000/1 long shots win, what makes you think your 200/1s are different? And it's not even about luck, I've seen such ultra long shots win by 10-15 lengths. My prediction is you'll go to +3500 and then 2 big winners will put you down to -500 and you'll see it's pointless.

You joined SBR in 2014, I joined in 2008.
Do you trust me that I have some experience in this?

Should I tell you I'm going to beat the market? No, of course not.
Do I know how long this train will ride? I don't know.

But I've been trying your method, it's not worth it unless you dedicate hours of studies into this, which I don't have the time for.

[arie1985]

Race 3 in Te Kupenga:



Good Luck!

[arie1985]

Sorry for posting these late, I had no chance to post them earlier:



And this:



Also I had very small amounts matched on the past few races, didn't bother uploading them.

So far about 1,284 EUR (32% ROI with a continuous risk of losing the capital).

[arie1985]

Race 6 in Collie (Harness):



Good Luck!

[Gaze73]

You joined SBR in 2014, I joined in 2008.
Do you trust me that I have some experience in this?

Should I tell you I'm going to beat the market? No, of course not.
Do I know how long this train will ride? I don't know.

But I've been trying your method, it's not worth it unless you dedicate hours of studies into this, which I don't have the time for.

So you're saying that after 10 years of laying random ultra longshots you're in profit? Even my grandma could lay a 400/1 shot to win 20 bucks, but if the horse's true value is 370/1 you'll eventually go busto.

[arie1985]

1st Race in Greyville, South Africa today:



Good Luck!
(As I posted it I heard the announcer saying "Rashid in the last two").

[arie1985]

So you're saying that after 10 years of laying random ultra longshots you're in profit? Even my grandma could lay a 400/1 shot to win 20 bucks, but if the horse's true value is 370/1 you'll eventually go busto.

No, that's not what I'm saying, and I completely disagree with your theory.

If you lay 18,000 races @ 500/1 you would still be in profit and won't go bust... of course that if you just take a bad price each race you are screwing yourself, but that's not the point.

The point is your goal ... if you are going to lay the favorites - what's your goal? Do you invest 4,000 to try and win 15,000 and then you're going to stop for good? What happens afterwards?

I would have risked 4,000 on odds of 1.25 to win 1,000 and made it - would I be in a better position than "collecting" the 1,000 step by step?

If you bring the gambling psychology into this (e.g. people who win the jackpot in the lottery) - what comes so fast would get lost too fast, so if you don't dedicate time, patience and discipline you'd better not invest in the first place (that's what my 10 year experience tells me).

Does it mean this type of investment is worth it? It's hard to tell ... but there are many good indicators on bad horses with very large price, if you see the market dumping them (e.g. 110 to 1 in live Television in South Africa) should tell you that horse is completely **** and that's why you can feel free to lay it without even worry about the race itself.

The point is to constantly find these bad horses, as you can appreciate I don't jump on every single race that is given to me ...

[arie1985]

I managed to lay (=sell) this one before the sharks came to raise the price.



The race starts in about 1 hour, you cannot sell it for less than 500 now.
Interbet has it for 301 and it was 101 just about 10-20 minutes ago so it shows the market is dumping it.

Also this horse has made 40 runs so far and placed only once (1 time) among all these 40 races so it shows why there is lack of faith in this one and that's my reason to sell it earlier than later, because I can imagine this selling price as high as 1000 and then it won't be sell-able unless done in live betting.

That's the only reason I sold it so soon, the UK races attract tons of sharks into these markets and they are happy to risk $10,000 just to get $10 in return.

[arie1985]

Here's more info on this one:

[Gaze73]

Here's my lay stats. What I'm saying is that long term it's easier to hit 8 out of 10 than 399/400. But hey, do what you will, I'll be waiting for that inevitable 200/1 winner.

Avg. Price	3,68
Lost	434
Won	109
Total	543
Hit Rate	80%
Stake	43 150,00 €
Profit	7570,58
ROI	17,54%

[arie1985]

Here's my lay stats. What I'm saying is that long term it's easier to hit 8 out of 10 than 399/400. But hey, do what you will, I'll be waiting for that inevitable 200/1 winner.

Avg. Price	3,68
Lost	434
Won	109
Total	543
Hit Rate	80%
Stake	43 150,00 €
Profit	7570,58
ROI	17,54%

Your total profit is 7.5k EUR? How long did it take you to get there? (that also comes without submitting daily proofs like I do here).

[littlekona]

Here's my lay stats. What I'm saying is that long term it's easier to hit 8 out of 10 than 399/400. But hey, do what you will, I'll be waiting for that inevitable 200/1 winner.

Avg. Price	3,68
Lost	434
Won	109
Total	543
Hit Rate	80%
Stake	43 150,00 €
Profit	7570,58
ROI	17,54%

Gaze is right....there are many many really bad lowered price horse that are 3-1 when true odds should be 15-1....those are the ones to target and lay..It requires discipline which many times i do not have LOL plus some study....

[Ph q all]

Arie1985 sounds a lot like maxdalury.

[arie1985]

Last race today in Greville, South Africa:



Good Luck!

[arie1985]

"Greyville (typo)

[JBEX]

Here's my lay stats. What I'm saying is that long term it's easier to hit 8 out of 10 than 399/400. But hey, do what you will, I'll be waiting for that inevitable 200/1 winner.

Avg. Price	3,68
Lost	434
Won	109
Total	543
Hit Rate	80%
Stake	43 150,00 €
Profit	7570,58
ROI	17,54%

very impressive..over what period of time is this if you don't mind me asking

[arie1985]

Next race @ Fontwell



You guys realize people risk over 6000 just to get 10 in return?
If you are so much against this method why so many people use it? (Hint: notice the matched amount of bets when it was over 15 mins away from the race).

Also - I'd try to get this one in live betting

[arie1985]

Got it in live:



Good luck!

[arie1985]

Sorry for posting it late:

[littlekona]

Next race @ Fontwell



You guys realize people risk over 6000 just to get 10 in return?
If you are so much against this method why so many people use it? (Hint: notice the matched amount of bets when it was over 15 mins away from the race).

Also - I'd try to get this one in live betting

the pro matchmakers use as they don't care who wins they have everything covered at odds that make them a profit guaranteed ...for others it a losing strategy long run....better off with spot play lays of drifters at lower odds IMO many horrible low priced horses...focus on horses that are 2-1 that should be true odds 10-1 and you will win ROI

[littlekona]

This thread is headed to disaster. You're chasing fool's gold. I've been laying for a long time and the only horses I can lay profitably are favorites. Every year a couple of 1000/1 long shots win, what makes you think your 200/1s are different? And it's not even about luck, I've seen such ultra long shots win by 10-15 lengths. My prediction is you'll go to +3500 and then 2 big winners will put you down to -500 and you'll see it's pointless.

gaze, what sites do u use ??? I am looking for more USA Tracks that betfair does not take like California tracks, gulfstreem and fairgrounds

[Underdog5229]

arie what is the end goal with this? if you get up 10k will you stop or will you continue upping the stakes til a longshot comes in?

[Gaze73]

very impressive..over what period of time is this if you don't mind me asking

6 months. I do only UK and Ireland meetings, there's plenty of races every day.

[arie1985]

Kapunda, Australia - Race 3 (Harness):



Good Luck!

[arie1985]

arie what is the end goal with this? if you get up 10k will you stop or will you continue upping the stakes til a longshot comes in?

This type of investment has a very clear path, it's a "one off" investment, you don't know how long it will continue but you do your best to keep going as far as possible.

It doesn't cause you to chase losses or bet big, I'm not intending of changing the stakes or depositing more, the only thing I do from time to time is withdrawing the net profit and keep the balance back on 4k EUR. It's as simple as that.

[arie1985]

very impressive..over what period of time is this if you don't mind me asking

I can also create a table and put some numbers into it .... the "Stake" = 43 150,00 € - looks like a made up number.

Here is my total P&L for Feb 2018, it's a genuine screenshot and not some numbers I'm choosing to put in here:



So true, if I lose the next race I would lose 2,600 EUR.
But also if I haven't made that 1,000 EUR bet in the beginning of the thread this would be up by 2,400 EUR now.
These are all hypothetical scenarios I'm describing - in practice we don't know how it will end, but we do know it has made a nice progress so far.

I don't want to name anyone here but someone who has contacted me in private messaging told me he managed to do a very nice amount of around $1,500 from laying favorite horses but he lost it all in a NCAA Basketball bet....

Part of my approach as I mentioned several times here is to take away the gambling aspect from this - so you are heavily relying on odds, market movements and other aspects such as quick horse history (aka Form) and other stats.

If I would have bet against every single possible longshot this investment would have died by now (i.e. there were some several longshot winners in races that I just chose to avoid touching, and by longshot I mean 60-1 or 50-1). It's not as 'super easy' as some people here try to portray and as I mentioned before - if you would make $5,000 and lose it all in 1 bet then probably what you do is wrong ... is what I'm doing wrong as well? Only time will tell.

[jjgold]

Let’s keep it going

[arie1985]

Kapunda, Australia - Race 6 (Harness):



Good Luck!

[arie1985]

Let’s keep it going

[Gaze73]

Why is your account in PTE which doesn't exist since 2002?

[arie1985]

Why is your account in PTE which doesn't exist since 2002?

What do you mean?

[arie1985]

Flamingo Park, South Africa - Race 2:



Good Luck!

[arie1985]

Flamingo Park, South Africa - Race 2:



Good Luck!

Oh no, 2 good horses in this race are "late scratching" - that's not good, odds dropped on Toonani from 200 to 100, and there are less competitors now... race is also delayed to start in 1 or 2 minutes or so.