Miami Dolphins in for letdown in 2009
Miami Dolphins in for letdown in 2009
They were the Cinderella story last season after the Dolphins posted an 11-5 mark to earn a postseason berth just a year removed from a 1-15 record. Head coach Tony Sparano, now entering his second season on the sidelines, knows it will be much tougher in the coming campaign, and with Miami being dealt the toughest schedule for 2009, there's a good chance they may not even reach eight wins.
On the other side of the NFL offseason betting odds fence from division, conference, and Super Bowl outright odds are season win totals. Often overlooked as futures plays, season win totals present tons of value for football bettors – as long as you know what you’re doing.
The first thing you need to do is examine each team’s strength of schedule. Simply defined, strength of schedule is determined by combining the wins and losses (based on last season’s records) of the opponents in the upcoming season of a given team. Take this season’s Washington Redskins, who come into the year with the 16th-ranked strength of schedule (.492). Last season, the teams they’re set to play went 125-129-2, for an aggregate winning percentage of .492.
You probably noticed there’s one fundamental flaw to the idea of strength of schedule. The number is based on last season’s performance. What the statistic can’t tell you is Tom Brady is back under center in New England, Terrell Owens is catching passes in Buffalo, and Shawne Merriman is healthy in San Diego. In assessing season win totals, make sure to balance a team’s strength of schedule with your own take on how they’re going to fare this season.
Five toughest schedules this season:
Miami Dolphins .594
Carolina Panthers .592
New England Patriots .590
Atlanta Falcons .588
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .580
You can see the AFC East and NFC South got the shaft from the league office this season. The Dolphins, Panthers, and Falcons all made the playoffs last year, but they could be in trouble this time around. Generally speaking, teams that improve gradually from season to season tend to be more resilient to changes to the difficulty of their schedule than teams that make an abrupt jump in the standings.
Sorry Miami backers, the Fish are prime examples of this reality. The Dolphins played one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2008, especially after Brady went down for the season. The AFC East drew both the AFC West and NFC West last season, plus Miami went 1-15 SU the year before. With a cupcake schedule, the Dolphins went 11-5 and won the division.
This year, Miami has to play the much tougher AFC South and NFC South, the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, the San Diego Chargers, and Brady and the Patriots (twice). The Fish have to play just as well to stay at .500, let alone get back to the postseason. Chad Pennington had a career year last season, and the Dolphins led the league in turnover ratio. Those two things won’t happen again.
Chance’s pick: Miami under 8.0 wins
Pegging a team to play over their season win total seems a little easier, not that I’m unsure about the Dolphins.
Five easiest schedules this season:
Chicago Bears .414
Minnesota Vikings .420
Green Bay Packers .428
Pittsburgh Steelers .434
Baltimore Ravens .438
The AFC North and NFC North are the big winners, and both of my picks to play over their season win totals are from those divisions. With the Bears, I honestly don’t know what the books are thinking setting their season total at nine wins. Chicago went 9-7 last season without Jay Cutler, so my guess is he’ll help the Bears to at least 10 victories. Running back Matt Forte is a special talent in the backfield, and the defense is set to bounce back from a lackluster season.
Over in the AFC North, oddsmakers have the Steelers set at over/under 11 victories. Pittsburgh managed to go 12-4 last season with – literally – the most difficult strength of schedule (.598) in three decades. The Steelers won the Super Bowl. They have one of the most ferocious defenses in the NFL history, and an excellent head coach in Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger is coming into his own, and there’s no way Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall both miss significant time from injury again. This season? The fourth-easiest schedule means Pittsburgh is primed to at least repeat its 12-win showing of a year ago.
Chance’s pick: Chicago over 9.0 wins & Pittsburgh over 11.0 wins
They were the Cinderella story last season after the Dolphins posted an 11-5 mark to earn a postseason berth just a year removed from a 1-15 record. Head coach Tony Sparano, now entering his second season on the sidelines, knows it will be much tougher in the coming campaign, and with Miami being dealt the toughest schedule for 2009, there's a good chance they may not even reach eight wins.
On the other side of the NFL offseason betting odds fence from division, conference, and Super Bowl outright odds are season win totals. Often overlooked as futures plays, season win totals present tons of value for football bettors – as long as you know what you’re doing.
The first thing you need to do is examine each team’s strength of schedule. Simply defined, strength of schedule is determined by combining the wins and losses (based on last season’s records) of the opponents in the upcoming season of a given team. Take this season’s Washington Redskins, who come into the year with the 16th-ranked strength of schedule (.492). Last season, the teams they’re set to play went 125-129-2, for an aggregate winning percentage of .492.
You probably noticed there’s one fundamental flaw to the idea of strength of schedule. The number is based on last season’s performance. What the statistic can’t tell you is Tom Brady is back under center in New England, Terrell Owens is catching passes in Buffalo, and Shawne Merriman is healthy in San Diego. In assessing season win totals, make sure to balance a team’s strength of schedule with your own take on how they’re going to fare this season.
Five toughest schedules this season:
Miami Dolphins .594
Carolina Panthers .592
New England Patriots .590
Atlanta Falcons .588
Tampa Bay Buccaneers .580
You can see the AFC East and NFC South got the shaft from the league office this season. The Dolphins, Panthers, and Falcons all made the playoffs last year, but they could be in trouble this time around. Generally speaking, teams that improve gradually from season to season tend to be more resilient to changes to the difficulty of their schedule than teams that make an abrupt jump in the standings.
Sorry Miami backers, the Fish are prime examples of this reality. The Dolphins played one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2008, especially after Brady went down for the season. The AFC East drew both the AFC West and NFC West last season, plus Miami went 1-15 SU the year before. With a cupcake schedule, the Dolphins went 11-5 and won the division.
This year, Miami has to play the much tougher AFC South and NFC South, the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, the San Diego Chargers, and Brady and the Patriots (twice). The Fish have to play just as well to stay at .500, let alone get back to the postseason. Chad Pennington had a career year last season, and the Dolphins led the league in turnover ratio. Those two things won’t happen again.
Chance’s pick: Miami under 8.0 wins
Pegging a team to play over their season win total seems a little easier, not that I’m unsure about the Dolphins.
Five easiest schedules this season:
Chicago Bears .414
Minnesota Vikings .420
Green Bay Packers .428
Pittsburgh Steelers .434
Baltimore Ravens .438
The AFC North and NFC North are the big winners, and both of my picks to play over their season win totals are from those divisions. With the Bears, I honestly don’t know what the books are thinking setting their season total at nine wins. Chicago went 9-7 last season without Jay Cutler, so my guess is he’ll help the Bears to at least 10 victories. Running back Matt Forte is a special talent in the backfield, and the defense is set to bounce back from a lackluster season.
Over in the AFC North, oddsmakers have the Steelers set at over/under 11 victories. Pittsburgh managed to go 12-4 last season with – literally – the most difficult strength of schedule (.598) in three decades. The Steelers won the Super Bowl. They have one of the most ferocious defenses in the NFL history, and an excellent head coach in Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger is coming into his own, and there’s no way Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall both miss significant time from injury again. This season? The fourth-easiest schedule means Pittsburgh is primed to at least repeat its 12-win showing of a year ago.
Chance’s pick: Chicago over 9.0 wins & Pittsburgh over 11.0 wins