KVB's Week 5 Forecasts...

[KVB]

With the exceptions of Tampa Bay and Miami we’ve had four weeks of games played. Below is the sharp forecast for each game of Week 5. Normally, confidence is pretty high for the forecast as it is designed to compete against the money entering the market this week. For example, over the last three years the sharp forecast has been wrong against the Week 5 moneyline just 5 times.

This year has a different feel. The sharp forecast predicts 6 moneyline upsets this week; that’s a lot. The last two weeks of NFL brought mostly upsets and now the sharp forecast is in agreement with some public upsets out there. Further, as I’ve discussed before, I would expect only about 1/3 or just two of those upset predictions to come to fruition. Due to the success of the early season sharp forecast against the upset moneyline, it’s possible we see none of those upsets pay. Against the open, there are 12 spread bets triggered out of 14 games; action is sought from the openers and that’s likely to lead to a mixed bag of results against the spread.

Regardless of the reasons I think things will fail, I’m putting the forecast out there for Week 5. It will be interesting to see how the lines move in relation the sharp forecast this week. Also, in two games, NE/TB and Jax/Pitt, a tie is predicted. Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh each get a slight moneyline edge in the raw score in those games. For now, there is no analysis here just the forecast.

I will post the stacking percentages forecast as well, and we’ll see how it stacks up against the Week 5 lines.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
NE	31	Buy on TB to +3.5	No ML prediction
TB	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5	TB has 3 games played
LA Char	23	Buy on LAC to +1.5	ML upset prediction
NY Gia	21	Buy on OVER to 37.5 or UNDER to 47.5	Total in line with Market
Buf	17	Buy to Buf -3.5	ML upset prediction
Cinci	10	Buy on UNDER to 33.5
Jets	27	Buy on Jets to -9.5	ML upset prediction
Cle	14	Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 45.5	Total in line with Market
Jax	17	Buy on Jax to +3.5	No ML prediction
Pitt	17	Buy on Under to 38.5
Tenn	24	Buy on Tenn to -5.5	Miami has 3 games played
Mia	16	Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 44.5	No Total offered
SF	28	Buy on SF to -9.5	Moved to ML upset prediction
Indy	16	Buy on OVER 37.5 or UNDER 47.5	Total in line with the Market
Zona	21	Buy on Zona +11.5 or Philly -3.5	Spread in line with the Market
Philly	28	Buy on OVER to 46.5
Car	14	Buy on Det to -3.5
Det	21	Buy On Under to 38.5
Sea	28	Buy on Rams to +1.5	ML upset prediction
Rams	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Balt	13	Buy on Balt +6.5 or Oak +1.5	Spread in line with the Market
Oak	16	Buy on UNDER to 33.5
GB	31	Buy on GB to -5.5	ML upset prediction
Dal	23	Buy on OVER 47.5	Total in line with the Market
KC	28	Buy on KC to -2.5
Hou	23	Buy on OVER to 46.5
Minn	24	Buy on Minn to -5.5
Chi	14	Buy on OVER 32.5 or UNDER 44.5	No Total offered

[CrapsMyWay]

Thanks for posting. I enjoyed reading that information. Good luck!

[hotcross]

Couple questions -

You refer to this "Sharp Forecast" repeatedly as if we are familiar with it. Who generates it? What calculations go into making it?

In other words I cannot tell if this is something you created, or it comes from elsewhere?

Secondarily, well this really is not a question but a comment about the Tie Games forecast. Week 5 forecast you've posted includes 2 games resulting in a tie. Moreover in Week 3, I noticed a post by you regarding the Monday Night game Dallas at Arizona had the potential to end in a tie.

For the years I've followed NFL, tie games actually happen once, maybe twice per year, if at all.
2016 = 2 ties
2015 = 0 ties
2014 = 1 tie
2013 = 1 tie
2012 = 1 tie
2011 = 0 ties
could keep going....

My thought is, a forecast used as a tool in comparing projected scores, etc. is useful. However, and this is just my interpretation - as someone WHO IS NOT FAMILIAR WITH THIS METHOD (not meaning to bust your balls), it seems a forecast showing potential tie games occurring every week serves to discredit the accuracy of the entire forecast.

You might say, "Just wait because Ties are NOT forecast every week." -well among two weeks (didn't see anything about Week 4) the sharp forecast includes 3 Tie games.

DAL@ARIZ final score 28-17 although close game most the way, the 4th quarter played out 14-3 Dallas and didn't come close to ending in a tie, let alone reaching overtime.

Now for Week 5, hard to imagine either game *really* producing a tie result.

New England at Tampa Bay: 31-31 Final.....really with the Pats defense alone, plus their offensive prowess, how would one team not score if the game did make overtime???

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: 17-17 Final....ok this one is the more reasonable of the two games, but its difficult to make a tie!

You might say I'm focusing too much on these forecasted tie scores, but partly the reason I am doing that is because you - yourself made specific comments about the potential tie results. Just find it hard to "buy-in" when the forecast is supposedly nailing down tie result predictions.

To wrap-up, its true you prefaced posting the entire forecast by saying that you doubt the forecast will be accurate this week, once the game results are known.

I AM NOT saying you should stop posting the info. No, in fact I want to see more of it, and the "Stacking percentages forecast" you mentioned. But I need more background and context to fully understand.

Thank you

[RangeFinder]

Thanks K!

However I'm still on my self imposed boycott of the NFL

Hopefully they stand this week especially in honor for the victims of Las Vegas

[Fidel_CashFlow]

this guy isnt banned yet ???

[RangeFinder]

Couple questions -

You refer to this "Sharp Forecast" repeatedly as if we are familiar with it. Who generates it? What calculations go into making it?

In other words I cannot tell if this is something you created, or it comes from elsewhere?

Secondarily, well this really is not a question but a comment about the Tie Games forecast. Week 5 forecast you've posted includes 2 games resulting in a tie. Moreover in Week 3, I noticed a post by you regarding the Monday Night game Dallas at Arizona had the potential to end in a tie.

For the years I've followed NFL, tie games actually happen once, maybe twice per year, if at all.
2016 = 2 ties
2015 = 0 ties
2014 = 1 tie
2013 = 1 tie
2012 = 1 tie
2011 = 0 ties
could keep going....

My thought is, a forecast used as a tool in comparing projected scores, etc. is useful. However, and this is just my interpretation - as someone WHO IS NOT FAMILIAR WITH THIS METHOD (not meaning to bust your balls), it seems a forecast showing potential tie games occurring every week serves to discredit the accuracy of the entire forecast.

You might say, "Just wait because Ties are NOT forecast every week." -well among two weeks (didn't see anything about Week 4) the sharp forecast includes 3 Tie games.

DAL@ARIZ final score 28-17 although close game most the way, the 4th quarter played out 14-3 Dallas and didn't come close to ending in a tie, let alone reaching overtime.

Now for Week 5, hard to imagine either game *really* producing a tie result.

New England at Tampa Bay: 31-31 Final.....really with the Pats defense alone, plus their offensive prowess, how would one team not score if the game did make overtime???

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: 17-17 Final....ok this one is the more reasonable of the two games, but its difficult to make a tie!

You might say I'm focusing too much on these forecasted tie scores, but partly the reason I am doing that is because you - yourself made specific comments about the potential tie results. Just find it hard to "buy-in" when the forecast is supposedly nailing down tie result predictions.

To wrap-up, its true you prefaced posting the entire forecast by saying that you doubt the forecast will be accurate this week, once the game results are known.

I AM NOT saying you should stop posting the info. No, in fact I want to see more of it, and the "Stacking percentages forecast" you mentioned. But I need more background and context to fully understand.

Thank you

I think what you forgot to ask yourself is how many times have games gone to OT since 2011?

[hotcross]

I think you should stick to picking your winners, because that comment about OT helps not. Anyway obviously we know OT occurs barely more than tie end results.

[asiagambler]

How would someone go about making a sharp forecast?

[KVB]

The sharp forecast is created by me. With almost every play I post, I mention the forecasts. I used the smaller CFL market and things like full NCAA Tourney or NFL playoffs to post three useful forecasts and trade around them. Trading is sometimes good and sometimes bad, but the forecasts hold their own.

The CFL thread has some explanations and the Fly Me thread has seen plenty of action. I saw your PM Cross, I’ll send some links when I get a chance so you get an idea of where I’m coming from. Otherwise, just dive in as I’m really teaching some things by example when I can. I don’t know what this thread will lead to, perhaps construction of lines or predictions.

Let me quickly hit on ties. The goal of the forecast is to produce a game result that is closer to reality that the books are able to, or want to hang in the market.

Let’s look at last week. I posted that there were two ties predicted by the sharp forecast: Carolina vs New England and Rams vs. Dallas. Carolina and New England opened with NE -8.5 and closed -9.5. With Carolina winning the game by 3 points the market was 12.5 points off of reality. The sharp forecast was 3 points off of reality. The sharp forecast was closer; it had less line error for that particular game.

Dallas opened at -8 and closed at -5.5 and when the Rams won by 5, the sharp forecast was once again closer to reality. One line moved toward the forecast significantly and one slightly, as pushing through 9 isn’t very significant compared to pushing through 7 and 6.

What I am not including here, but sometimes address, is the value in the actual moneyline in regards to the forecast. If the odds are right, like pick ‘em forecasts at a +9 spread, then it might be worth the bet on the moneyline. I’m really showing spread results and whether or not the forecast show a ML upset. I’ll use this info to track bets and follow the money.

Anyway, so think of ties like any other margin of victory and know that rarely, but it does happen, does any game fall exactly on the forecast; whether it’s a tie or not.

[KVB]

...I noticed a post by you regarding the Monday Night game Dallas at Arizona had the potential to end in a tie....

A tie was not forecast in that Monday night game, an upset was.

That tie prediction was offering a situation, similar to one's in the past that have resulted in a tie, of where the market may have settled for a tie. The real takeaway from the writing was that there was little chance of there being an upset. Because there was so little chance, and the spread so low, it seemed too easy to get the Dallas moneyline. I suggested a tie as a form of settlement for the week.

A lot that relates to what I mentioned above in regards following the money and trading around the forecasts. That's why it was posted in the CFL thread.

[KVB]

I have one more thought regarding ties. The sharp forecast reveals two predictions about the game: the margin of victory and a Total. Sometimes you’ll hear a handicapper conclude that a game is a toss-up, or a pick ‘em. Then, if the odds are right, they’ll take the dog.

I’m essentially saying that the line between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville should be a pick ‘em. If that’s where it had opened, then the forecast would be in line with the market. Did the sharp forecast reveal some sort of inefficiency in the market? Efficient market theorists will say that it’s too wide and a bad prediction, and likely a bad forecast. Experience has shown otherwise and so did last week. Next will be a cry that the sample is small, and I will agree with that.

That said, from a market perspective, it doesn’t seem like Jacksonville winning this moneyline will pay. I think when you think of overall average line error as a mentioned above, that the books get a little back from the sharp forecast on this game. The sharp forecast has that kind of variance and the money is a bit split here but that gets into analysis I might not want too much of in this thread. It requires the big picture and could prove overwhelming to readers.

But look at another example, where the sharp forecast has the Jets beating Cleveland by 13. That game opened with Cleveland -1.5 and has moved to a pick ‘em, toward the forecast. The forecast, at this point, no longer predicts the upset. This is a condition, with this game, that was intentionally created by the opening market.

That’s a bit beyond the scope of this thread but I have already bet the Jets in that game.

[KVB]

Currently, two of the sharp forecast moneyline upset predictions have traded out of moneyline upsets as the market has moved toward the forecasts. Both the Jets and Rams are now at a pick 'm and in some houses showing to be favored by a point.

We are still far from kickoff and the lines could possibly bounce back.

[KVB]

Here are are the stacking percentages forecast for each game of Week 5. Like the sharp forecast, this is an adjusted score. Unlike the sharp forecast, this forecast is subject to change.

Instead of having a certain discrepancy between the stacking forecast and the market to trigger a bet, let’s track it with as little as a ½ point discrepancy. It’s possible that the stacking forecast may pick one team or Total against the opener, and the other against the closer, if lines are tight enough. In some cases, the lines are very close to the stacking forecast.

For a little more on the stacking percentages forecast see this link:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1720.html#post27204879

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
NE	27	TB Spread, TB ML	Upset ML prediction
TB	28	Push on Total	OVER on early opener
LA Char	20	Gia Spread, Gia ML
NY Gia	27	OVER
Buf	13	Cinci Spread, Cinci ML
Cinci	23	UNDER
Jets	17	Cle Spread, Cle ML
Cle	21	UNDER
Jax	16	Pitt Spread, Pitt ML
Pitt	27	UNDER
Tenn	21	Mia Spread	No ML pediction
Mia	21		No Total offered
SF	16	Indy Spread, Indy ML	Total moved to UNDER prediction
Indy	27	UNDER	from push opener of 43.
Zona	13	Philly Spread, Philly ML
Philly	31	UNDER
Car	21	Car Spread	No ML prediction
Det	21	UNDER
Sea	17	Rams Spread, Rams ML	Upset prediction against opener
Rams	27	UNDER
Balt	17	Oak Spread, Oak ML	Balt Spread on early opener
Oak	21	UNDER
GB	14	Dal Spread, Dal ML
Dal	28	UNDER
KC	20	Hou Spread, Hou ML
Hou	24	UNDER
Minn	21	Chi Spread	No ML prediction
Chi	21		No Total offered

[Fidel_CashFlow]

mods ?

seriously ....

1 year ban would make him stop trolling with these paragraphs full of words

[lakerboy]

mods ?

seriously ....

1 year ban would make him stop trolling with these paragraphs full of words

What's going on Fidel? Did something happen? These riddles are hard to solve.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

lol as usual , just giving one of my favorite people a hard time ribbing emmm

K.V.B is awesome

[KVB]

[Renegades]

Good luck with the jets. They are nice and square regardless of; forecasts, stacking percentages, odds of tieing etc

[Renegades]

Ask 10 mushes who they like in that game and 8 out of 10 will pick the jets

[Memojr13]

KVB do you have a NFL record for your sharp forecast for this year?

[Da Manster!]

KVB,
you know I respect your knowledge and capping abilities but I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum in regards to Jax/Pittsburgh...Steerlers win this game easily...probably by at least double digits....remember, this is Jacksonville's 3rd straight road game!...very seldom do you see that for an NFL team...besides, can you really trust Blake Bortles on the road in a hostile environment?!...I see a 27 - 13 type of Steelers win.

[KVB]

Good luck with the jets. They are nice and square regardless of; forecasts, stacking percentages, odds of tieing etc

Ask 10 mushes who they like in that game and 8 out of 10 will pick the jets

I agree with you here...

...This year has a different feel. The sharp forecast predicts 6 moneyline upsets this week; that’s a lot. The last two weeks of NFL brought mostly upsets and now the sharp forecast is in agreement with some public upsets out there. Further, as I’ve discussed before, I would expect only about 1/3 or just two of those upset predictions to come to fruition. Due to the success of the early season sharp forecast against the upset moneyline, it’s possible we see none of those upsets pay...

But this is a market of give and take and I think the public has a chance to get back from some of the last two weeks' drama.

In the long haul, it won't hurt to go with the forecast and, being a contrarian in trading around the forecast, I've seen a lot of recent failure countering the forecast for those reasons we both mention.

Maybe the public gets one back with the Jets, maybe.

[KVB]

KVB,
you know I respect your knowledge and capping abilities but I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum in regards to Jax/Pittsburgh...Steerlers win this game easily...probably by at least double digits....remember, this is Jacksonville's 3rd straight road game!...very seldom do you see that for an NFL team...besides, can you really trust Blake Bortles on the road in a hostile environment?!...I see a 27 - 13 type of Steelers win.

I also agree with you Manster...

...That said, from a market perspective, it doesn’t seem like Jacksonville winning this moneyline will pay. I think when you think of overall average line error as a mentioned above, that the books get a little back from the sharp forecast on this game. The sharp forecast has that kind of variance and the money is a bit split here but that gets into analysis I might not want too much of in this thread. It requires the big picture and could prove overwhelming to readers...

Even this situation has been overplayed to the success of the early season sharp forecast already.

The stacking percentages forecast, which tends to fall close to your thoughts (at least it has in previous discussions) shows Pittsburgh winning 27-16.

I tend to agree with you on it this week and in light of last week's success am avoiding Jacksonville. While for the thread I am tracking the stacking forecast with no discrepancy, it's too close to the line to trigger a Pittsburgh play, for now.

Good stuff Manster. Compare your predictions to the stacking forecast above, we may be close on a number of games.

[KVB]

this guy isnt banned yet ???

I totally missed this first post Cash.

[funnyb25]

KVB means business this weekend

BOL

[jjgold]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9k6ZRfLv4bCVFA2WGRyNjlkWDg/view

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B19-UyCRF9e5Wmhaa1VxUHRpTmM/view

[KVB]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9k...RyNjlkWDg/view


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B19...VxUHRpTmM/view

[RudyRuetigger]

who is that guy on therx that made these horrible fukkin threads

I guess kvb is taking that over here

its clear the guy has a freshman college math class under his belt so most will learn from him

good thread

[KVB]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9k...RyNjlkWDg/view


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B19...VxUHRpTmM/view

[jayc88]

a sharp forecast with a 10 point value range between o/u for NFL BETTING . Just when you think you've seen it all ....

[KVB]

KVB do you have a NFL record for your sharp forecast for this year?

I haven't posted the sharp forecast for every game so far but when I have posted I have mentioned that we really need 4 games played under our belts to get really be able to compare teams relative to the league. The early season sometimes does well, but it often starts slower for the sharp forecast.

Here are the early season results when the sharp forecast is applied:

Triggered bets Against the Spread:

Open: 19-19, 50%
Close: 16-21, 43.24%

Moneyline predictions:

Overall: 32-21, 60.38%:

Predicting favorites:

Against the Open: 30-14, 68.18% (This includes games where the line crossed zero moving away from the forecast and the opening favorite changed to a dog by close).
Against the Close: 28-15, 65.12% (This includes games where the line crossed zero moving toward the forecast and the opening dog changed to a favorite by close).

Predicting upsets:

Open: 2-7, 22.22% (Including games that opened as a dog then closed as a favorite).
Close: 4-6, 40% (Including games that opened a favorite and closed as a dog).

Interestingly, it did a little better when predicting favorites when the line moved away from the forecast while the opposite occurred when predicting upsets.

Triggered bets against Totals:

Open: 16-18, 47.06%
Close: 11-19, 36.67%

Line movement when bets are triggered through 4 weeks of play:

The market Spread moved toward the forecast 24 times and away 16 times, moving toward it 60% of the time.

The Total moved toward the spread 16 times and away from the spread 17 times, moving toward the spread 48.48% of the time.

In week 2 the Total line moved away from the forecast in all 8 triggered plays and the forecast went 0-7-1 against the closing Totals.


That's an honest assessment of the sharp forecast results when applied to the 1st 4 weeks of the season.

[KVB]

a sharp forecast with a 10 point value range between o/u for NFL BETTING . Just when you think you've seen it all ....

I think you're talking about those ranges that are in games where the forecast is in line with the market. It shows where the line would have to move to trigger a buy, using some key numbers. There likely wouldn't be triggered plays in those games as the forecast agrees with the market.

[RangeFinder]

K,

I like your style. Others will always disagree no matter what. The bottom line is, at least you know where you stand in relation to the markets, which is key to winning long term. Very nice job and keep up the good work and don't be afraid to make adjustments.

[Ra77er]

You just post the winners and everything will work out. If you get heat you back off otherwise keep the pedal to the medal. I like the bengals this week.

[KVB]

...Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
NE	31	Buy on TB to +3.5	No ML prediction
TB	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5	TB has 3 games played

We are seeing the market move toward the forecast and rest at least for now, at the 3.5 point line, as indicated above. Tampa Bay is being bought TO +3.5

The Total is triggered so low because the forecast is not quite ready for bets triggered in the 50's. In my opinion, they key numbers are not quite worked out for these purposes.

There is no triggered play on tonight's Total.