With the exceptions of Tampa Bay and Miami we’ve had four weeks of games played. Below is the sharp forecast for each game of Week 5. Normally, confidence is pretty high for the forecast as it is designed to compete against the money entering the market this week. For example, over the last three years the sharp forecast has been wrong against the Week 5 moneyline just 5 times.
This year has a different feel. The sharp forecast predicts 6 moneyline upsets this week; that’s a lot. The last two weeks of NFL brought mostly upsets and now the sharp forecast is in agreement with some public upsets out there. Further, as I’ve discussed before, I would expect only about 1/3 or just two of those upset predictions to come to fruition. Due to the success of the early season sharp forecast against the upset moneyline, it’s possible we see none of those upsets pay. Against the open, there are 12 spread bets triggered out of 14 games; action is sought from the openers and that’s likely to lead to a mixed bag of results against the spread.
Regardless of the reasons I think things will fail, I’m putting the forecast out there for Week 5. It will be interesting to see how the lines move in relation the sharp forecast this week. Also, in two games, NE/TB and Jax/Pitt, a tie is predicted. Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh each get a slight moneyline edge in the raw score in those games. For now, there is no analysis here just the forecast.
I will post the stacking percentages forecast as well, and we’ll see how it stacks up against the Week 5 lines.
Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:
This year has a different feel. The sharp forecast predicts 6 moneyline upsets this week; that’s a lot. The last two weeks of NFL brought mostly upsets and now the sharp forecast is in agreement with some public upsets out there. Further, as I’ve discussed before, I would expect only about 1/3 or just two of those upset predictions to come to fruition. Due to the success of the early season sharp forecast against the upset moneyline, it’s possible we see none of those upsets pay. Against the open, there are 12 spread bets triggered out of 14 games; action is sought from the openers and that’s likely to lead to a mixed bag of results against the spread.
Regardless of the reasons I think things will fail, I’m putting the forecast out there for Week 5. It will be interesting to see how the lines move in relation the sharp forecast this week. Also, in two games, NE/TB and Jax/Pitt, a tie is predicted. Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh each get a slight moneyline edge in the raw score in those games. For now, there is no analysis here just the forecast.
I will post the stacking percentages forecast as well, and we’ll see how it stacks up against the Week 5 lines.
Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:
| Team | Score | Triggers Levels: | Notes |
| NE | 31 | Buy on TB to +3.5 | No ML prediction |
| TB | 31 | Buy on OVER to 47.5 | TB has 3 games played |
| LA Char | 23 | Buy on LAC to +1.5 | ML upset prediction |
| NY Gia | 21 | Buy on OVER to 37.5 or UNDER to 47.5 | Total in line with Market |
| Buf | 17 | Buy to Buf -3.5 | ML upset prediction |
| Cinci | 10 | Buy on UNDER to 33.5 | |
| Jets | 27 | Buy on Jets to -9.5 | ML upset prediction |
| Cle | 14 | Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 45.5 | Total in line with Market |
| Jax | 17 | Buy on Jax to +3.5 | No ML prediction |
| Pitt | 17 | Buy on Under to 38.5 | |
| Tenn | 24 | Buy on Tenn to -5.5 | Miami has 3 games played |
| Mia | 16 | Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 44.5 | No Total offered |
| SF | 28 | Buy on SF to -9.5 | Moved to ML upset prediction |
| Indy | 16 | Buy on OVER 37.5 or UNDER 47.5 | Total in line with the Market |
| Zona | 21 | Buy on Zona +11.5 or Philly -3.5 | Spread in line with the Market |
| Philly | 28 | Buy on OVER to 46.5 | |
| Car | 14 | Buy on Det to -3.5 | |
| Det | 21 | Buy On Under to 38.5 | |
| Sea | 28 | Buy on Rams to +1.5 | ML upset prediction |
| Rams | 31 | Buy on OVER to 47.5 | |
| Balt | 13 | Buy on Balt +6.5 or Oak +1.5 | Spread in line with the Market |
| Oak | 16 | Buy on UNDER to 33.5 | |
| GB | 31 | Buy on GB to -5.5 | ML upset prediction |
| Dal | 23 | Buy on OVER 47.5 | Total in line with the Market |
| KC | 28 | Buy on KC to -2.5 | |
| Hou | 23 | Buy on OVER to 46.5 | |
| Minn | 24 | Buy on Minn to -5.5 | |
| Chi | 14 | Buy on OVER 32.5 or UNDER 44.5 | No Total offered |