KVB's Week 5 Forecasts...

[KVB]

Find your threads on this incredibly interesting. Even tho know nothing of CFL I always find myself reading them. Appreciate reading the Nice work!!

Yeah I guess we never know what we are going to get with some of that analysis. We never know what kind of examples will pop up as the story unfolds. I think I've gotten a little lazy and repetitious with some of it when there's probably been some better points to make.

It would be a lot to cover in this thread but let's see if anything interesting pops up.

[KVB]

Week 9 Forecasts

For week 9, with the current line movement, the sharp forecast has five moneyline upset predictions, including both night games. It will be interesting to see what type of market we see throughout the day as we lead into the Sunday night game as the stacking forecast also predicts Miami to win.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and a few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Buf	31	Buy on Buf to -10.5
Jets	17	Buy on Over to 44.5
Den	10	Buy on Philly to -13.5
Philly	31	Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 45.5	Total in line with Market
Rams	31	Buy on Rams to -6.5
Gia	20	Buy on OVER to 46.5
TB	16	Buy on NO to -6.5 or TB +14.5	Spread in line with Market
NO	27	Buy on UNDER to 45.5
Cinci	17	Buy on Jax to -2.5	Buy on Jax -2 open
Jax	23	Buy on OVER to 36.5 or Under to 44.5	Total in line with Market
Atl	17	Buy on Car to -.5	No Buy on Car -1.5 open
Car	21	Buy on OVER to 32.5 or UNDER to 44.5	Total in line with Market
Indy	31	Buy on Hou to -5.5 or Indy +13.5	Spread in line with Market
Hou	41	Buy on OVER to 47.5	No Buy at 48 open
Balt	27	Buy on Balt to -9.5	Upset ML prediction
Tenn	14	Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 45.5	Total in line with Market
Zona	21	Buy on SF to -3.5	Upset ML prediction
SF	28	Buy on OVER to 46.5
Wash	16	Buy on Sea to -13.5
Sea	41	Buy on OVER to 47.5
KC	31	Buy on KC to +3.5 or Dal to +3.5	Spread in line with Market
Dal	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Oak	20	Buy on Mia to -5.5	Upset ML prediction
Mia	28	Buy on OVER to 44.5
Det	24	Buy on GB to -.5	Moved to ML upset prediction
GB	28	Buy on OVER to 47.5

[KVB]

The stacking forecast has done well the past two weeks, especially against the moneyline and has two upset moneyline predictions for Week 9. Like the sharp forecast, it predicts both Carolina and Miami to win.

Here is the stacking percentages forecast, the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line, and notes:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Buf	23	Buf ML	Buy on Jets at open of +3.5
Jets	20	OVER
Den	10	Philly Spread, Philly ML
Philly	31	UNDER
Rams	24	Rams Spread, Rams ML
Gia	17	UNDER
TB	13	NO Spread, NO ML
NO	31	UNDER
Cinci	13	JAX Spread, JAX ML
Jax	27	OVER
Atl	17	Car Spread, Car ML	Moved to ML upset prediction
Car	24	UNDER
Indy	10	Hou Spread, Hou ML
Hou	41	OVER
Balt	13	Tenn Spread, Tenn ML
Tenn	28	UNDER
Zona	24	SF Spread, Zona ML
SF	23	OVER
Wash	17	Sea Spread, Sea ML
Sea	28		Total in line with Market
KC	17	Dal Spread, Dal ML
Dal	31	UNDER
Oak	16	Mia Spread, Mia ML	ML Upset prediction
Mia	21	UNDER
Det	21	GB Spread, Det ML	Det spread bet at Pick open
GB	20	UNDER

[KVB]

Week 10 Forecast

Last week (week 9), for triggered plays, the sharp forecast was 4-5 against the opening spread and 3-4-2 against the close. It was 5-6 against the moneyline going 4-3 when predicting favorites and 1-4 when predicting upsets, all against the close. The sharp forecast was 5-2 against the opening Totals and 5-3 against the close.

We are seeing some expected improvement already in this 3^rd quarter for the Total results as they were off a bit in the 2^nd quarter of the season. A 0-8 day and 0-7 day in the 2^nd and 1^st quarters, respectively, have kept the performance against the Totals down a bit. The Totals, by season’s end, are usually a softer market.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast for tonight’s game, the levels a buy would be triggered, and a note:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Sea	31	Buy on Seattle to -13.5
Zona	7	Buy on OVER to 32.5 or UNDER to 44.5	Total in line with Market

[KVB]

For week 9 the stacking forecast was 8-5 against the opening spread and 7-4-2 against the close. It was 9-4 against the moneyline going 2-0 when predicting upsets against the close. It was 4-8-1 against the opening Totals and 4-9 against the close.

We should see that Total performance improve before this 3^rd quarter is over, but perhaps not before the sharp forecast results get its improvement against the Totals. Since week 5, with just a ½ point discrepancy against the spread, the stacking forecast is 58.21% against the open and 56.92% against the close.

The give and take markets ring true once again as this spread performance has been offset by a mere 49.23% success rate against the opening Totals and 44.78% against the close.

Here are the stacking percentages forecast for tonight’s game and the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Sea	24	Zona Spread, Sea ML
Zona	21	OVER

[KVB]

For Week 10 the sharp forecast predicts one upset against the moneyline with Dallas over Atlanta. San Francisco opened early as a 1 point favorite but is now the dog as the forecast predicts the Giants.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and a few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Sea	31	Buy on Seattle to -13.5
Zona	7	Buy on OVER to 32.5 or UNDER to 44.5	Total in line with Market
Minn	31	Buy on Minn to -10.5
Wash	17	Buy on OVER to 44.5
GB	17	Buy on Chi to -3.5
Chi	24	Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 45.5	Total in line with Market
Pitt	24	Buy on Pitt to -5.5 or Indy +11.5	Spread in line with Market
Indy	16	Buy on UNDER to 44.5	No Buy on UNDER 43 open
LA Char	7	Buy on Jax to -12.5
Jax	23	Buy on UNDER to 37.5
Jets	31	Buy on Jets to -4.5
TB	23	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Cinci	16	Buy on Tenn to -2.5 or Cinci +7.5	Spread in line with Market
Tenn	21	Buy on OVER to 29.5 or UNDER to 41.5	Total in line with Market
NO	31	Buy on NO to -6.5
Buf	20	Buy on OVER to 46.5 or No Buy on UNDER	Total in line with Market
CLE	17	Buy on Det to -10.5	Buy on Det -9.5 Open
Det	31	Buy on OVER to 44.5
Hou	31	Buy on Rams to -5.5 or Hou to +13.5	Spread in line with Market
Rams	41	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Dal	31	Buy on Dal to -12.5
Atl	16	Buy on OVER to 43.5 or UNDER to 51.5	Buy on UNDER 53 Open
Gia	28	Buy on Gia to -9.5
SF	16	Buy on OVER to 37.5 or UNDER to 47.5	Total in line with Market
NE	28	Buy on NE to -13.5
Den	7	Buy on UNDER to 39.5
Mia	20	Buy on Car to -3.5 or Mia to +11.5	Spread in line with Market
Car	27	Buy on OVER to 43.5

[KVB]

Like the sharp forecast, for week 10, the stacking forecast also has Dallas over Atlanta as the only upset prediction.

Over the last 3 weeks the stacking forecast has succeeded against both the opening and closing spread at a rate of 70%. We should see that slow down a bit and come closer to the performance of the last 5 weeks, closer to 58%. While we could see a poor week this week against the spread with the stacking forecast, there is another situation we may see. The stacking forecast performance against the spread, before correcting, may show us one more sign of money stacking, or a run. Perhaps we’ve seen it already, with last week’s early games, but should we see one more streak in its performance, we can be certain of a correction on the horizon.

Here is the stacking percentages forecast, the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line, and notes:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Sea	24	Zona Spread, Sea ML
Zona	21	OVER
Minn	21	Wash Spread	No ML prediction
Wash	21		Total between Open & offered
GB	10	Chi Spread, Chi ML
Chi	31	OVER	No play on 41 Open
Pitt	31	Pitt Spread, Pitt ML
Indy	13		Total between Open & offered
LA Char	10	Jax Spread, Jax ML
Jax	31		Total in line with Market
Jets	23	Jets Spread, Jets ML
TB	21	OVER
Cinci	16	Tenn Spread, Tenn ML
Tenn	24	UNDER
NO	28	NO Spread, NO ML
Buf	17	UNDER
CLE	14	Det Spread, Det ML
Det	31	OVER
Hou	10	Rams Spread, Rams ML
Rams	31	UNDER
Dal	24	Dal Spread, Dal ML	Upset ML prediction
Atl	23	UNDER
Gia	23	SF Spread, SF ML	No spread on SF -1 open
SF	24	OVER	Moved to upset ML prediction
NE	24	Den Spread, NE ML
Den	21		Total between Open & offered
Mia	7	Car Spread, Car ML
Car	31	UNDER

[Shute]

Good luck with your forecasts KVB

[jtoler]

Were you jesuit schooled KVB?

[KVB]

In Week 10, against triggered plays, the sharp forecast went 5-5 against the opening spread and 4-4-1 against the close. The story was the bounce back in the moneyline performance, particularly when predicting the favorite as it went 10-2 against the close there. The sharp forecast has gone 10-5 against the open and 10-6 against the closing Totals over the last two weeks to bring the record since week 5 against the Totals to 24-23 against the open and 24-25 against the close.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast for tonight’s game, the levels a buy would be triggered, and a note:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Tenn	17	Buy on Tenn to +6.5
Pitt	20	Buy on UNDER to 41.5

[KVB]

...Over the last 3 weeks the stacking forecast has succeeded against both the opening and closing spread at a rate of 70%. We should see that slow down a bit and come closer to the performance of the last 5 weeks, closer to 58%. While we could see a poor week this week against the spread with the stacking forecast, there is another situation we may see. The stacking forecast performance against the spread, before correcting, may show us one more sign of money stacking, or a run. Perhaps we’ve seen it already, with last week’s early games, but should we see one more streak in its performance, we can be certain of a correction on the horizon...

Last week the stacking percentages forecast, with a ½ point discrepancy against the market, was 5-9 against the opening spread and 6-7-1 against the close. I think we’ve already seen, to some extent, the correction mentioned above. Like the sharp forecast, the stacking forecast also did well against the moneyline last week, going 10-3. Also last week, the stacking forecast was 5-7 against the opening and 6-7-1 against the closing Totals. In a counter to the spread results, the stacking forecast continues to have a low performance against the Totals at about 46% over 79 games.

Like the recent spread results, this too could change drastically as it catches the market swinging through its methodology.

Here are the stacking percentages forecast for tonight’s game and the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Tenn	10	Pitt Spread, Pitt ML
Pitt	31	UNDER

[KVB]

With the recent forecast success against the moneyline, we can see the market is preparing for another upset, perhaps a high value and volume game and it easily could be a night game. The NFL requires a special patience when trying to read the market in this fashion and there are inherent risks, I’ve talked about before, with the first game of the week. That said, I think the story may be more about the moneyline patience, instead of the spread, and I’ve pressed the sharp forecast with the Tennessee spread.

I have also pressed the sharp forecast’s Under prediction, probably sending those trades to a 1-1 record.

I know that’s a bit out of the scope of this thread, but posting the information should hopefully tell a story, and I’ve touched on some of the anticipated directions of results, maybe we can get a little more as this quarter moves forward.

[KVB]

I didn’t post the forecasts in the thread this morning, for a few reasons. It’s too difficult to add analysis given the other sports going on so I may stop putting it out until playoffs. This morning I had a computer problem and didn’t get them to the thread in time.

So I didn’t post it for Sunday but since Thursday the sharp forecast is 6-3 against the opening and 5-3-1 against the closing spread. It is 4-4 against the opening and 5-4 against the closing Totals. A tie was predicted between Tampa and Miami. There were two predicted upsets: Rams and Cinci. The sharp forecast is 9-2 against the moneyline and was wrong with the Rams and Kansas City.

For tonight’s game, the sharp forecast shows a 31-31 tie between Philly and Dallas with Dallas getting a slight edge in the moneyline score. The line moved into a buy on Dallas.

For the Monday night game the sharp forecast has Seattle winning with 23 points to Atlanta’s 17 points. A buy is triggered on Seattle to -2.5.

I’m passing on Dallas +6 in this spot, but even in their situation, the +6 is a lot of points.

I also think Atlanta is a decent upset opportunity given the recent success of the sharp forecast against the moneyline.

This is probably my last post in this thread. I know it would have been nice to see the sharp forecast come back around as it has today but this thread was meant almost solely to be informational, with little analysis.

I’ve decided to focus more on analysis and use of the forecasts, in an attempt to bring fresh teaching points, and may wait until playoffs to get back to the NFL on a regular basis.

The CFL thread gives an example of the some of the market info and techniques I’ve tried to illustrate when using these forecasts. Hopefully we can get into a higher volume setting to exploit the markets and watch them unfold.

Good Luck.

[RangeFinder]

I didn’t post the forecasts in the thread this morning, for a few reasons. It’s too difficult to add analysis given the other sports going on so I may stop putting it out until playoffs. This morning I had a computer problem and didn’t get them to the thread in time.

So I didn’t post it for Sunday but since Thursday the sharp forecast is 6-3 against the opening and 5-3-1 against the closing spread. It is 4-4 against the opening and 5-4 against the closing Totals. A tie was predicted between Tampa and Miami. There were two predicted upsets: Rams and Cinci. The sharp forecast is 9-2 against the moneyline and was wrong with the Rams and Kansas City.

For tonight’s game, the sharp forecast shows a 31-31 tie between Philly and Dallas with Dallas getting a slight edge in the moneyline score. The line moved into a buy on Dallas.

For the Monday night game the sharp forecast has Seattle winning with 23 points to Atlanta’s 17 points. A buy is triggered on Seattle to -2.5.

I’m passing on Dallas +6 in this spot, but even in their situation, the +6 is a lot of points.

I also think Atlanta is a decent upset opportunity given the recent success of the sharp forecast against the moneyline.

This is probably my last post in this thread. I know it would have been nice to see the sharp forecast come back around as it has today but this thread was meant almost solely to be informational, with little analysis.

I’ve decided to focus more on analysis and use of the forecasts, in an attempt to bring fresh teaching points, and may wait until playoffs to get back to the NFL on a regular basis.

The CFL thread gives an example of the some of the market info and techniques I’ve tried to illustrate when using these forecasts. Hopefully we can get into a higher volume setting to exploit the markets and watch them unfold.

Good Luck.

Special thanks for your efforts KB even though I still have my personal boycott of the NFL going on

And no I still haven't fixed my comma and period button on my laptop and I hate my desktop

[KVB]

Thanks Range.

One issue here is the gap of this Sunday. Without having posted today's forecasts, the record moving forward is a bit pointless.

Look for a basketball thread from me and I plan to do the same with the Bowl Games and NFL Playoffs as I did last year. I posted the forecasts and plays of every March Madness game earlier this year, in a total blitz of power posting, and I'll probably do it again this season.

[RangeFinder]

Thanks Range.

One issue here is the gap of this Sunday. Without having posted today's forecasts, the record moving forward is a bit pointless.

Look for a basketball thread from me and I plan to do the same with the Bowl Games and NFL Playoffs as I did last year. I posted the forecasts and plays of every March Madness game earlier this year, in a total blitz of power posting, and I'll probably do it again this season.

Very cool

[hotcross]

KVB, we might get a 0-0 tie in Buffalo today by the looks of how it started with the weather.

Curious what your forecasts had for this week.

[RudyRuetigger]

Curious what your forecasts had for this week.

check weatherchannel

they use radar

[RudyRuetigger]

Thanks Range.

One issue here is the gap of this Sunday. Without having posted today's forecasts, the record moving forward is a bit pointless.

Look for a basketball thread from me and I plan to do the same with the Bowl Games and NFL Playoffs as I did last year. I posted the forecasts and plays of every March Madness game earlier this year, in a total blitz of power posting, and I'll probably do it again this season.

we can go on and on with these type of threads

like i said, you can bump any thread you want of mine, but i admit to losing

whereas you try to act sharp until the thread loses

you have now started to incorporate your plays into someone elses thread so you can hide when you become a loser so it is not as easy to find

dont worry, i can find those too

[KVB]

[KVB]

There Rudy, you got two pieces of attention from me.

Bumping a thread with a planned and explained exit.

Could cry any more for attention?

[RudyRuetigger]

well i can bump more threads if you like

including your great 5k post with my post associated with it

your choice bro

you are a clown trying to act sharp which i do not like

[juicername]

I'm confused. Is this worse than saying you're leaving the forum forever only to come back a couple of days later as a yearly routine?

[KVB]

I'm confused. Is this worse than saying you're leaving the forum forever only to come back a couple of days later as a yearly routine?

Not sure juicer, but apparently this post must have been terrible, maybe I should leave for good.

This is the 5000 post he references above..

For my 5000^th post I would like to start a series of threads known as Words of Wisdom. While I considered offering something I’ve already posted or recent words of money management, I decided on something new.

I’ve often mentioned that it’s not that gamblers don’t know; it’s that so much they know is wrong. In the CFL thread poster Ra77er asked a question that offers a teachable moment.



Remember, this is indeed a game of numbers if you want to succeed and many bettors, when comparing stats between teams, often use means instead of medians. Doing so will cause errors in your work.

The first lesson is in conclusions and behavior. I’ve mentioned in the past that there are as many ways to handicap as there are handicappers and bettors, when comparing teams, use all kinds of stats. When bettors use means when comparing teams, get false evidence, then fail, they often conclude that the statistics used were the wrong ones.

They move on to other angles, other stats, and then continue to use means and continue to fail. What they don’t realize is that it’s often not the stats used that is the problem, it’s the use of means. This cycle can go on for as long as a bettor lets it.

The mean and the median can be different numbers but are often close. First let’s address the problems with averaging stats.

Let’s keep it simple and, simply put, using means when comparing stats between teams will cause errors whenever both teams are above or below the mean. It fools the player because you can, at times produce a valid result, as when medians are used, but that is coincidental.

Let’s use an example. Let’s compare the Eagles to Falcons using yardage stats. Let’s say, for simplicity, that the average yards per game in the NFL come to 160 yards. We know it is closer to twice that but let’s keep it simple. In our scaled down example, let’s say the Eagles gain an average of 200 yards per game and the Falcons give up 200 yards per game.

To project the Eagles total yards gained against the Falcons, the natural tendency for the bettor is to take the average of the two: yards gained by Eagles plus yards allowed by Falcons divided by two, which would produce a prediction of 200 yards per game.

Does that sound right to you? Think about it. Using means, we are saying a better than league average Eagles team that’s “worth” 200 yards a game is going to be held to its “normal” 200 yards per game by a less than average poor Falcons defense?

That’s a mistake and it will show. Instead of trying another stat and again averaging the two, try this…

Add the yardage gained to the opponent’s yardage allowed and then subtract the league average.

Now we get 400 – 160 = 240. Let’s think about it again. Now we’re saying the Eagles good offense should get more yards against the poor Falcon defense than they would usually get against their average opponents.

That makes a little better sense. Now let’s talk about the advantage of medians. Ra77er brought up anomaly type situations and how the mean would take it into consideration. While this is true, is that what we want?

Let’s say, in our scaled down example that the wheels come off in a game and those pesky Falcons give up 400 yards. They are way behind, injuries, send in the backups, etc. and don’t give a shit. In the next three games let’s say they give up 180, 220, and 200 yards per game. If you average these four games you’ll come to 250 yards per game while the median is 210.

In a sport like the NFL teams tend to revert to a norm, whatever their specific norm is. By using medians, you can better remove those outlier results that aren’t exactly indicative of a team’s normal performances.

Winning gamblers have learned to compare what is relevant to staying ahead of the marketplace and often times those outlier results are more of an influence on perception than reality. This too should be taken into account.

One more note about means and medians. I mentioned that means can fool players because often times they can produce a valid figure, but it’s a mere coincidence.

Let’s say the Eagles gain 200 yards per game and the Falcons give up 120 yards per game. Averaging the two will yield the same result as adding them together and subtracting 160.

And that is why bettors can be fooled. When one team is above average and one team below average, you can get close to a valid figure, and this happens often. Eventually averaging between teams will produce errors while the method described above will avoid these errors.

Like I’ve said before, track your bets and why you made them folks; this can become the most valuable piece of information you can process. Not even the most advanced syndicates and bettors have that information.

That is, until we make you. But that’s for another thread.

May these words of wisdom put you onto some winners or take you off of some losers...

[jjgold]

Twitter hurt me today