KVB's Week 5 Forecasts...

[Kiddpokerr]

Buy to KC -12.5 ouch, love your insights KV but what is this, some kinda LT prediction model or somethong else?
Ive seen a few different places predicting 28-13, just wondering...

[KVB]

For Week 7, the stacking forecast predicts just one moneyline upset. Again it’s in the Denver versus LA Chargers game and, like the sharp forecast, is only against the opener. That line has moved towards both forecasts to a pick em.

Here is the stacking percentages forecast, the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line, and notes:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
KC	23	Oak Spread, KC ML
Oak	21	UNDER
Tenn	24	Cle Spread, Tenn ML
Cle	20	UNDER
Jax	24	Jax Spread, Jax ML
Indy	17	UNDER	Push on Total at Open
Cinci	13	Pitt Spread, Pitt ML
Pitt	24	UNDER
Balt	13	Minn Spread, Minn ML
Minn	28	OVER
Jets	16	Mia Spread, Mia ML
Mia	24	OVER
TB	16	Buf Spread, Buf ML	Based on early line
Buf	28		No Total offered
Car	20	Chi Spread	No ML prediction
Chi	20	UNDER
NO	24	GB Spread, NO ML
GB	21	UNDER
Zona	16	Rams Spread, Rams ML
Rams	31		Total between Open & offered
Dal	31	Dal spread, Dal ML
SF	17	OVER
Sea	21	Gia Spread, Sea ML
Gia	20	OVER
Den	20	LA Char Spread, LA Char ML	ML upset prediction at Open
LA Char	21		Total between Open & offered
Atl	24	NE Spead, NE ML
NE	28	UNDER
Wash	17	Philly Spread, Philly ML
Philly	28	UNDER

[KVB]

Buy to KC -12.5 ouch, love your insights KV but what is this, some kinda LT prediction model or somethong else?
Ive seen a few different places predicting 28-13, just wondering...

That's right, indications would allow us to capture 13 and 14 as margins of victory. It's safer to stop at -10.5 or -11, but a buy is triggered on KC tonight regardless.

The stacking percentages forecast shows a much closer game and the non predictive public gauge shows KC winning by 7 points. The line is between them and the sharp forecast is what it is. Is it sniffing out an inefficiency in the market?

Some money is split here but the sharp forecast agrees with the public for the most part.

I'm not analyzing the market as much in this thread but I think the favorite covers tonight, in line with the public and the sharp forecast.

[hotcross]

KVB, the concepts you're presenting are interesting. However with all due respect, as I've followed along you have not offered any crumb or tidbit about what calculations go into the forecast. I asked that question in post 2 of your thread here. Perhaps you do not wish to unveil that type of information, and that's your right. All the talk about markets and trading levels has no context (to me) without an explanation of how the predicted scores are derived.

[funnyb25]

[KVB]

...Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
TB	17	Buy on TB to +7.5 or Buf to -2.5	No Spread offered
Buf	28	Bu on OVER to 40.5 or UNDER to 48.5	No Total offered

This is a mistake. This obviously doesn't make sense. With Buffalo predicted to win by 11, the Buy would be on Tampa Bay to +14.5 or Buffalo to -6.5.

There was no line at the time but I'm not sure what I was looking at when this was typed. The Total signals are correct.

[KVB]

Here the results so far this week.

For triggered plays, the sharp forecast is 4-5-1 against the opening spread, 4-5-2 against closers. It is 8-4 against the moneyline. It is 6-1 when predicting favorites as we are seeing the rebound I mentioned last week. When predicting upsets against the moneyline it is 2-3 and I had the expectation of 2 out of the 6 being successful. The sharp forecast predicts Washington as an upset in the Monday night game. For Totals, the sharp forecast is 1-8 against the opening Totals, and 0-8 against the close.

Comparing it to the whole market with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the line, the stacking percentages forecast is 9-3-1 against the opening spread and 9-2-2 against the close. It is 11-1 against the moneyline. It is 9-3-1 against the opening Totals and 7-5-1 against the close.

For week 7 the sharp forecast predicts 6 upsets against the moneyline at the open...I have an expectation of 2 of those 6 being correct against the moneyline. I would expect the moneyline favorite predictions to fare well this week; they are running at a fairly low clip.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Atl	28	Buy on Atl to +7.5 or on NE to -1/2	Spread in line with Market
NE	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5, No Buy on Under	Total line with Market
Wash	31	Buy on Wash to +3.5	ML Upset prediction
Philly	28	Buy on OVER to 47.5

...

For Week 7, the stacking forecast predicts just one moneyline upset. Again it’s in the Denver versus LA Chargers game...

...Here is the stacking percentages forecast, the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line, and notes:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Atl	24	NE Spead, NE ML
NE	28	UNDER
Wash	17	Philly Spread, Philly ML
Philly	28	UNDER

...

In my opinion the money is fairly split here making it a tough call. The public likes the OVER and has driven the line towards the sharp forecast and the pressure on the Atlanta moneyline has driven the line down from the stacking forecast through the sharp forecast. I’m sure there will be emboldened money on NE -2.5 to bring the line back to 3.

The only thing I want to mention, which would be a sort of teaching point in the nature of the market if we keep going this season, is that the money is beginning to stack on one side. We’ve seen this before in things like the playoffs and we can see it happening here midseason. The obvious are the sharp forecast Totals and the take from those bettors. The next is in the stacking forecast spread and moneyline performance.

Perhaps we see some immediate settlement with an Atlanta upset.

[KVB]

KVB, the concepts you're presenting are interesting. However with all due respect, as I've followed along you have not offered any crumb or tidbit about what calculations go into the forecast. I asked that question in post 2 of your thread here. Perhaps you do not wish to unveil that type of information, and that's your right. All the talk about markets and trading levels has no context (to me) without an explanation of how the predicted scores are derived.

I completely get what you are saying here. I think some of the market principles I try to show are best taught by example. I've posted the forecasts for NFL playoffs, the bowl games, march madness, entire CFL seasons, etc. and offered some teachings in those examples.

This thread wasn't meant so much to analyze the market or teach by too many examples, but that depended a bit on what happens through the season. After three weeks we are starting to see some money stack, the problem is just how much it would take to analyze the entire NFL market and write about it.

Some of that analysis has been meant for different levels of gamblers as well. Some is meant for sharp gamblers who are beating the market as well as to help newer gamblers with basic principles.

I've talked a bit about relevant factors that go into the forecasts, but haven't led into just what makes some of them up.

I have stressed the need to account for recent performance of a team as well as some past stats. Also, I've talked about when comparing teams to compare them relative to the league. I've talked about static forecasts that just rely on data but don't take into account the current market environment and its tendencies, something dynamic forecasts would do.

Some has been subtle, some has been obvious and some things I've talked about have self destructed (been deleted).

The CFL thread is winding down and there is this thread, but I'm not sure exactly where into the forecasting this will lead. I'm not sure what I'll put out next but the best I can tell you is to read along if I do, and just kind of pick up where I do.

But I agree, there isn't much context in these numbers unless you've seen me use the forecasts in other threads and watched the money swing back and forth, or even watched the market situations play out on the field.

For example, tonight, had Atlanta scored first, I would have likely bought New England in the LIVE market. I think the Atlanta moneyline was sold tonight and that New England will get it. Now that New England has scored first, there is still question. If you've read along in the past, you may understand a little more about what I mean there than if you just started reading.

I'll try to work harder at getting a little more insight into this thread. When it comes to market analysis, here's a good thread to give you an idea of where I'm coming from....

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3050399-equal-action-right-action-lol-didnt-read.html

[KVB]

...Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Wash	31	Buy on Wash to +3.5	ML Upset prediction
Philly	28	Buy on OVER to 47.5

There is another error here; a typo. With Washington predicted to win by 3 points, a Buy on Washington is triggered to +1.5, not +3.5. It makes no difference as the line is at +4.5.

I am willing to capture the one point win on either side of the the pick as enough spread to trigger the Buy. There has been no buy on the Total, the line is too high.

I hate mistakes and am sorry to anyone reading.

[Da Manster!]

didn't realize this thread was ongoing......I need to start paying more attention......so this will be the forecast thread for pigskin action 2017?

[KVB]

I didn't realize it was going to be ongoing either but for now I'm sticking the forecasts here.

[hotcross]

thanks for all the info, and for addressing my question.

Subscribed

[KVB]

For week 7 the sharp forecast predicts 6 upsets against the moneyline at the open…

...I have an expectation of 2 of those 6 being correct against the moneyline. I would expect the moneyline favorite predictions to fare well this week; they are running at a fairly low clip....

For week 7, two of the six upset predictions were successful, as anticipated and the sharp forecast finished 7-1 against the moneyline when predicting favorites; also in line with expectations.

[KVB]

Week 8 Forecasts

For Week 8 the sharp forecast predicts two upsets against the moneyline, including the Thursday night game. There are 6 teams off this week.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Mia	23	Buy on Mia to -2.5	ML upset prediction
Balt	17	Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 44.5	Total in line with Market
Minn	24	Buy on Minn to -10.5
Cle	7	Buy on UNDER to 37.5
Chi	13	Buy on NO to -13.5
NO	31	Buy on UNDER to 47.5
Atl	20	Buy on Jets to +1.5	ML upset prediction
Jets	23	Buy on UNDER to 45.5
Car	31	Buy on Car to +3.5 or TB to +3.5	Spread in line with market
TB	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5	No ML prediction
SF	23	Buy on SF to +11.5	No Buy on +10.5 open
Philly	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5	No Buy on 49 open
Oak	16	Buy on Buf to -9.5
Buf	28	Buy on OVER to 37.5 and UNDER to 47.5	Total in line with Market
Indy	21	Buy on Cinci to -5.5 or Indy +13.5	Spread in line with Market
Cinc	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5
LA Char	17	Buy on NE to -2.5 or LA Char to +10.5	Spread in line with Market
NE	23	Buy on UNDER to 44.5
Hou	27	Buy on Sea to -.5 or Hou to +7.5	Spread in line with Market
Sea	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Dal	31	Buy on Dal to +3.5 or Wash to +3.5	Spread in line with Market
Wash	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5	No ML prediction
Pitt	31	Buy on Pitt to -10.5
Det	17	Buy on OVER to 44.5	Buy at 44.5 open
Den	17	Buy on KC to -10.5
KC	31	Buy on OVER to 44.5

[RudyRuetigger]

can you give us a running total or need to see how to shade them in your favor first???

[KVB]

Last week, the stacking percentages forecast finished 11-2-2 against the closing spread.

For tonight’s game, here are the stacking percentages forecast, the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line, and notes:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Mia	17	Balt Spread, Balt ML
Balt	21		Total in line with market

[Da Manster!]

KVB,
so which is a more accurate barometer of success?...what I mean to say is which of the forecasts (sharp or stacking) has a higher win % in the long run and which one should I use or which one do you recommend?

[KVB]

Last week, week 7, the stacking percentages forecast was 11-3-1 against the opening spread and 11-2-2 against the close. It was 10-4-1 against the opening Total and 8-6-1 against the close. The stacking forecast was 13-1 against the moneyline.

For week 8, here is the stacking percentages forecast, the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line, and notes:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Mia	17	Balt Spread, Balt ML
Balt	21		Total in line with market
Minn	27	Minn Spread, Minn ML
Cle	14	OVER
Chi	16	NO Spread, NO ML
NO	27	UNDER
Atl	24	Jets Spread, Atl ML
Jets	21	UNDER
Car	21	TB Spread, TB ML
TB	24		Total between Open & offered
SF	7	Philly Spread, Philly ML
Philly	41		Total between Open & offered
Oak	14	Buf Spread, Buf ML
Buf	28	UNDER
Indy	10	Cinci Spread, Cinci ML
Cinc	31	UNDER	Push on 41 open
LA Char	20	NE Spread, NE ML
NE	31	OVER
Hou	16	Sea Spread, Sea ML
Sea	27	UNDER	Push on 43 open
Dal	21	Wash Spread, Wash ML	Moved to ML upset prediction
Wash	24	UNDER
Pitt	27	Pitt Spread, Pitt ML
Det	14	UNDER
Den	17	KC Spread, KC ML
KC	27		Total between Open & offered

[Ra77er]

KVB I’m considering the Cleveland Browns this week.

Both forecasts are calling for a double digit Viking win.

Any thoughts about them possibly pulling the upset considering overseas?

Thank you for continued efforts!

[KVB]

KVB,
so which is a more accurate barometer of success?...what I mean to say is which of the forecasts (sharp or stacking) has a higher win % in the long run and which one should I use or which one do you recommend?

I didn't see this post Manster, sorry it took so long to get back.

The sharp forecast is a long term effort and has a pretty even keel. It may vary game by game and have what looks like extreme results with some games but week in and week out it will center on a certain edge. It can stretch out a few weeks but make its way back to that edge. The sharp forecast can have down years but still comes back. It is dynamic, adjusting as the season moves forward. For the most part, the sharp forecast doesn’t care who the players are, it is based on more general metrics that work year to year. It is predictable in some ways, like predicting upsets successfully at a 30% clip, with little variance. It’s been that way for decades. Consider it a backbone of the reality of sports.

If you are comparing the sharp forecast to your own work, you’ll notice some games are best pulled out. Teams that just lost their QB’s are good to avoid, and they have been losing, like this Thursday and games with GB. Take those out, and the record is that much better. It takes a few weeks for a team with a new QB or major contributor to adjust into the sharp forecast and while that can better the performance, I am not mentioning it in the triggers. This is because it is a long term forecast and those losses, while they can be avoided short term, also end up being noise from a long term perspective.

You really can’t go wrong following the sharp forecast but it’s best to compare it to your own work and then track.

The stacking forecast does care who is at the helm and other positions as well. We’ve already seen key injuries delay the stacking forecast while the sharp forecast just moves forward. There’s a link early in this thread that leads to a small explanation of the stacking forecast and how it’s designed to lower the average line error.

For the most part, when I’ve been posting it, the stacking forecast has been outperforming the sharp forecast but has been streakier when doing it. One example is last year’s NFL playoffs. The stacking forecast nailed nearly every game, while the sharp forecast was closer to 50-50.

The sharp forecast is the main one to look at and you may find that the stacking forecast looks more like your own work.

There are many ways to handicap but these forecasts represent certain types of market moving money, especially at certain times. They can help us watch money flow back and forth in the markets. I have been using these forecasts, along with the public gauge, most often to explain why the line has opened where it has opened and moves to where it moves to or closes. We’ve seen some examples and this week a couple of Totals moved from the open and stopped at some limits in my triggers, some of those lines have now pushed through though.

I’ve always said you can just follow the sharp forecast and if you had done that with the CFL this year, you would have done well. I don’t think the NFL will perform quite as well but I’ve been caught trying to counter the sharp forecast a few times this year, only to fail.

[KVB]

KVB I’m considering the Cleveland Browns this week.

Both forecasts are calling for a double digit Viking win.

Any thoughts about them possibly pulling the upset considering overseas?

Thank you for continued efforts!

..Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Minn	24	Buy on Minn to -10.5
Cle	7	Buy on UNDER to 37.5

...

Again, I’m sorry it’s such late reply. I kind of set the NFL forecast and stepped away not seeing you and Manster.

Anyway, I was about to mention how this is an example of the line moving according to the triggers, with the line moving to 10.5 but actually that’s a typo. With a 17 point margin of victory prediction, the sharp forecast will tolerate a Buy on Minny to -12.5.

That -10.5 is a typo but it does realistically take quite a bit to move that line onto and through 11. At that point it would stop at -12.5, just shy of -13.

This has been an upset friendly league of late and once we’ve seen -10.5, there’s no surprise Cleveland gets some action. At the very least, it curbs the Minnesota appetite, for now. Minnesota bettors may be less apt to pull the trigger but that effect could still wear off by Sunday morning.

It’s a tough one Ra77er. Cleveland is not a very good team and could go a while before getting their first win. They may not have to go too long, but teams in this situation don’t tend to settle in week 8. Week 8 is still the first half of the season, and it’s a season of halves. I don’t see the upset coming in this one and have no metric indicating the sharp forecast will fail.

That could be good news for Cleveland. Also, when Cleveland was last a dog this big, it was against Houston and the line dropped, moving the other way. Houston covered the spread and from a give and take perspective it could be Cleveland’s turn against the spread.

Of course, given the situation and time of year, it could also be another round of analyst or even contrarian reasons to buy Cleveland and I’m sure the market will exhaust many more before finally paying that moneyline.

As far as what they bring I do think that the NFL owes England a good game, but anything can happen regarding the spread in the end.

[KVB]

Since Thursday, for triggered plays the sharp forecast is 4-1 against the opening spread and 3-3 against the closing spread. It is 7-2 against the moneyline; 0-2 when predicting upsets and 7-0 when predicting the favorite to win. For triggered plays the sharp forecast is 5-2 against the open Totals and 4-4 against the close.

Two weeks ago I posted repeatedly that the rate at which the sharp forecast was predicting the favorite to win was low and expected a rebound. Over weeks 7 and 8, when predicting the favorite to win the sharp forecast is 14-1 against the moneyline. Notice over the weeks there has been, for favorites and upsets a certain amount of predictability with the sharp forecast and the moneyline.

We are seeing a rebound from the upsets of a couple of weeks ago and it shows in where the money falls.

[KVB]

Also since Thursday, the stacking forecast, with a ½ point discrepancy against the line, is 7-4 against the opening spread and 6-5 against the close. It is 9-2 against the moneyline. It is 4-6 against the opening Totals and 3-7 against the close.

Like the sharp forecast, the stacking forecast is also predicting the moneyline at a high rate. Over the last two weeks it is 22-3 against the moneyline. Sure, we’re coming off a period of rampant upsets and this is a rebound, but things are perpetual, something I mentioned in the CFL thread and we are going to be leading to an upset.

Here are the forecasts for the next two games. Both forecasts call for Pittsburgh tonight and Kansas City tomorrow night. I would be surprised to see both favorites win. After all, that happened last Sunday and Monday.

Tonight’s Total opened as an Over prediction for the sharp forecast, but has since traded toward the forecast, out of range. In an effort to balance the over performance last week by the sharp forecast, I think we see the Over tonight.

...Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Pitt	31	Buy on Pitt to -10.5
Det	17	Buy on OVER to 44.5	Buy at 44.5 open
Den	17	Buy on KC to -10.5
KC	31	Buy on OVER to 44.5

...For week 8, here is the stacking percentages forecast, the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line, and notes:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Pitt	27	Pitt Spread, Pitt ML
Det	14	UNDER
Den	17	KC Spread, KC ML
KC	27		Total between Open & offered

[KVB]

Here are the Favorite/Underdog results in the NFL so far this year against the close. The Underdogs are covering at a fairly high clip and those that win outright are doing it at a high clip as well…

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push
1	15	7	7	5	1
2	16	8	8	4
3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
5	14	7	7	6
6	13	2	11	9
Totals	90	35	54	39	1
%		38.89%	60.00%	43.33%	1.11%
			% of Dogs:	72.22%
	Note: One Game left for week 6

Now let’s take out the 1^st two weeks and see what’s happened in the last four weeks…

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push
3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
5	14	7	7	6
6	13	2	11	9
Totals	59	20	39	30	0
%		33.90%	66.10%	50.85%	0.00%
			% of Dogs:	76.92%
	Note: One Game left for week 6

From a market perspective the upsets are running very high and this Underdog success rate will pull back. We should see it return towards the levels of the first quarter of the season…

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push
1	15	7	7	5	1
2	16	8	8	4
3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
Totals	63	26	36	24	1
%		41.27%	57.14%	38.10%	1.59%
			% of Dogs:	66.67%
	Note: One Game left for week 6

If they don’t return to at least these levels by the end of week 8, then expect the opposite results over the second half of the season. It’s the nature of the give and take of the markets...

We have already seen those levels pull back, even through, the first quarter of the season numbers with the percentage of dogs winning being pretty high still...

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push
1	15	7	7	5	1
2	16	8	8	4
3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
5	14	7	7	6
6	14	3	11	9
7	15	9	4	3	2
8	12	7	5	1
Totals	118	52	63	43	3
%		44.07%	53.39%	36.44%	2.54%
			% of Dogs:	68.25%
	Note: One Game left for week 8

Here's the last two weeks...

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push
7	15	9	4	3	2
8	12	7	5	1
Totals	27	16	9	4	2
%		59.26%	33.33%	14.81%	7.41%
			% of Dogs:	44.44%
	Note: One Game left for week 8

Here is the second quarter of the season, the last four weeks. The percent of dogs winning is again running high and we may see this drop as we get into the second half of the season.

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push
5	14	7	7	6
6	14	3	11	9
7	15	9	4	3	2
8	12	7	5	1
Totals	55	26	27	19	2
%		47.27%	49.09%	34.55%	3.64%
			% of Dogs:	70.37%
	Note: One Game left for week 8

It doesn't take long for an extreme market to right itself. So they pulled back by week 8, now what can we expect?

I would look for, and history shows, a healthy mix of a few more favorites than underdogs in week 9 and a less percentage of underdogs that cover winning straight up over the next two weeks.

Likewise, it doesn't take long for the sharp forecast to "right itself" back towards that even keel backbone I mentioned before. So short term, with Pittsburgh winning tonight, Denver beating KC seems like a natural settlement for Monday night. Indeed, from a general perspective, KC could be in trouble. But there's a more local picture to look at as well.

No matter how you handicap, this is where you take a piece of paper and split it in half, writing the pros for each team the respective side. Then you put the cons of each team in the other teams column. I've gone over this exercise in the past.

If the side for the upset or dog begins to outweigh the case for the favorite, then perhaps the market will force patience as it gets the action it needs on the underdog and KC will get the win after all.

If Denver takes the early lead, I would be a bit suspicious; they may get the cover, but that moneyline will be hard keep to the end.

[asiagambler]

KC so overrated

[KVB]

KC so overrated

I'm not sure if you meant that from a general public perspective but it looks like the forecasts had KC rated just about right...

...Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Den	17	Buy on KC to -10.5
KC	31	Buy on OVER to 44.5

...For week 8, here is the stacking percentages forecast, the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line, and notes:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Den	17	KC Spread, KC ML
KC	27		Total between Open & offered

The final score was KC 29, Den 19.

Both forecasts also correctly predicted the OVER in the Total. The stacking forecast had the ten point margin of victory but I must admit it's difficult to adjust individual scores to 29 or 19.

[KVB]

KVB I’m considering the Cleveland Browns this week.

Both forecasts are calling for a double digit Viking win...

The Vikings won by 17 points, the margin predicted by the sharp forecast. But the the sharp forecast failed against the Total, the game was higher scoring than expected.

[KVB]

2nd Quarter Results

I’ve posted the sharp forecast for the 2^nd quarter of the season (weeks 5-8) and here are the results. The percentages do not include pushes.

Triggered bets Against the Spread:

Open: 19-17, 52.78%
Close: 21-20, 51.22%

Moneyline predictions:

Overall: 30-21, 58.82%

Predicting favorites:

Against the Open: 23-11, 67.65% (Including games where the line crossed zero moving away from the forecast and the opening favorite changed to a dog by close).

Against the Close: 24-11, 68.57% (Including games where the line crossed zero moving toward the forecast and the opening dog changed to a favorite by close).

Predicting upsets:

Open: 7-10, 41.18% (Including games that opened as a dog then closed as a favorite).
Close: 6-10, 37.50% (Including games that opened a favorite and closed as a dog).

Triggered bets against Totals:

Open: 14-18, 43.75%
Close: 14-19, 42.42%

These are the results of the posted sharp forecast of Weeks 5,6, 7, and 8. Considering the cycle of upset dominance over two of those four weeks, the sharp forecast fared alright and demonstrated that even keel I to which I was referring.

Also remember, that I am strict in this tracking and am conservative to the point that it dampens the record. For example, the Week 5 Thursday night result shows a Push against the open of 5 points and a failure against the close. In reality however, TB traded at +5.5 for much of the time and any bets at that number would have been successful.

Season to date, the sharp forecast, when predicting upsets, is 34.62% against the open and 38.46% against the close. When you remove lines that crossed the pick in movement, the result is 33.33% success when predicating upsets. These numbers remain in line with that low variance expectation of 33% when predicting ML upsets. Readers form other posting runs will remember this low variance consistency.

[RudyRuetigger]

Who cares what percentage it is when you don't include the odds

[KVB]

2nd Quarter Results: Stacking Percentages Forecast

Here are the results for the stacking percentages forecast results for the weeks 5-8 from this thread:

Note there is no threshold in this tracking. All plays are considered triggered a with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the spread. The percentages do not include pushes:

Against the Spread:

Open: 31-23, 57.41%
Close: 30-24, 55.56%

Moneyline predictions:

Overall: 32-18, 64%:

Predicting favorites:

Against the Open: 30-15, 66.67% (Including games where the line crossed zero moving away from the forecast and the opening favorite changed to a dog by close).

Against the Close: 30-14, 68.18% (Including games where the line crossed zero moving toward the forecast and the opening dog changed to a favorite by close).

Predicting upsets:

Open: 2-3, 40% (Including games that opened as a dog then closed as a favorite).
Close: 2-4, 33.33% (Including games that opened a favorite and closed as a dog).

Against the Totals:

Open: 28-25, 52.83%
Close: 26-28, 48.15%

Consistent with the past, and some readers will know this, the stacking forecast has performed better that he sharp forecast during periods where I’ve posted them both.

[KVB]

There is one thing to note with the results of the moneylines. For the sharp forecast I have been showing plays triggered with a tolerance of -110 odds even though many are found cheaper.

I have not been showing the math behind the tolerance for the moneylines. Because of that, I have not included opening and closing moneyline results. The main reason I’m including the moneyline results as a percentage is to show the consistency with the sharp forecast when it comes to the general results. There is low variance and while we could break up the subsets of moneyline and the results, or even break them down by the triggered levels; that could be a whole thread by itself.

For this thread, seeing an extreme general result may be all the guidance I will need for any analysis, similar to what we saw with moneyline upsets and the expected rebound. If it becomes relevant to include specific subsets or notes of triggered moneyline levels in any explanation, I’ll mention them.

I may post a more detailed breakdown week by week and we can see some of those P&L numbers there. There isn't much striking, except to say that the when predicting the market favorite to win, the sharp forecast has been successful 16 consecutive times and it's last loss was Thursday night of week 7 when Oakland upset Kansas City.

In that context, the Profit and Loss has meaning, just like Volume of betting, but again it's usefulness may be meant for another day. The record itself may be enough for our purposes.

[KVB]

Here are the two forecasts for tonight’s game. I’ve been over the moneyline streak for the sharp forecast and will just throw a couple of more relevant recent results.

Both forecasts have Buffalo to win the game but the stacking forecast is in line with both the sides and Total. This may have been expected as over the last two weeks the stacking percentages forecast is 20-7-1 against the opening spread and 19-7-2 against the close. It is 24-3 against the moneyline during the last two weeks.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and a few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Buf	31	Buy on Buf to -10.5
Jets	17	Buy on Over to 44.5

Here is the stacking percentages forecast, the indication with as little as ½ point discrepancy against the offered line, and notes:

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Buf	23	Buf ML	Buy on Jets at open of +3.5
Jets	20	OVER

[Louisvillekid1]

hey buddy,

just checking in

hope all is well

[2daBank]

Find your threads on this incredibly interesting. Even tho know nothing of CFL I always find myself reading them. Appreciate reading the Nice work!!

[KVB]

hey buddy,

just checking in

hope all is well

Right on kid I hope you're well too.