The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

The sharp forecast:

Calgary wins with 27 or 28 points to Saskatchewan’s 23 points...

...The updated stacking percentages forecast for all games are:

Calgary wins with 30 points to Saskatchewan’s 23 points...

…The non-predictive public gauge, which is subject to change, shows:

Calgary 28, Saskatchewan 23…This is the same as the sharp forecast, even though this is not an adjusted score, it is a raw score...

There is a change to the public gauge here. The updated public gauge has Calgary winning 28-24.

Well, they’ve been put in so many situations in recent weeks where the market thought they would fall, and now Calgary is in that situation again.

This time, however, it seems like the word is out. The sharp forecast calls for the Underdog (by 1 point) against the spread and the public gauge is inside the number as well. The stacking forecast is also close to the line, predicting a 7 point game. There are bets on Saskatchewan and I can see pressure from many angles seeking settlement.

Never before has Calgary been in this heavy of a situation to fail. I mentioned yesterday that this week was broken into two settlements: Friday’s two games and then next two games. There was underdog pressure on Ottawa, and we knew it wouldn’t hold. I felt the market was hiding an upset, and immediately Hamilton gives us a 13 point upset.

Then we get Montreal, with much pressure to perform, failing miserably. Now the market seeks that underdog settlement. Further, other metrics look for settlement in relation to the strong underdog pressure of the first game of the week.

To get that same settlement that we just saw on Friday seems tough. In general when we see it happen, like I keep saying, word gets out. It sure feels like word has gotten out about Calgary failing but this time the metrics are too strong.

I have picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +6 (-105) +200 over Calgary Stampeders.

Calgary may keep rolling through these bookmaking techniques and a loss here will most certainly generate a future play, even if it is not involved in Calgary. We’ve seen money get steered towards the likes of Ottawa and Montreal, only to get taken down by the game.

I managed to pass on those losing plays and now I believe it would be a mistake to pass this time.

At least, while Calgary has been burning bold trades, I haven’t been giving them up to teams like Montreal.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I also picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +6 (-107) +195 over Calgary Stampeders.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I terms of the Total, the line is slightly higher than the numbers.

I can see slight pressure on Under from a couple of sources seeking settlement and the book hasn't traded the line much.

If Saskatchewan does cover this spread, I can see the game going Over the 54.5.

The reasoning here is that if the great settlement is reached with the spread, and especially the moneyline, then there won't likely be the settlement those groups seek with the Total.

Edit: I do not have an expectation on the Total in the face of an upset or Underdog cover. I made a mistake in one of the metrics and feel the money is more split than originally thought.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I terms of the Total, the line is slightly higher than the numbers.

I can see slight pressure on Under from a couple of sources seeking settlement and the book hasn't traded the line much.

If Saskatchewan does cover this spread, I can see the game going Over the 54.5.

The reasoning here is that if the great settlement is reached with the spread, and especially the moneyline, then there won't likely be the settlement those groups seek with the Total.

What do you mean by a couple of sources seeking settlement?

[Hngkng]

I also picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +6 (-107) +195 over Calgary Stampeders.

Good Luck.

Love it

[KVB]

What do you mean by a couple of sources seeking settlement?

It goes back to one of the first posts I made in the old CFL thread. There are many ways to view the market, and one is that there are two types of bettors, streak riders and streak breakers.

In terms of the give and take, you can see what's happened to streak riding and streak breaking bettors over the last two weeks, especially when looking at the recent ATS records.

I said all that, but I just realized I made a mistake in the book. Actually, pressure from the above thinking would lead to Over bets, not Under bets.

Other pressure on the Under comes from that idea of the mini settlement I’ve been talking about. In the first two games, there were two Unders, that second game Over never came. There was settlement on the spread and moneyline, but not on the Total.

Yesterday we saw on Over and now there is some pressure to settle with an Under today. This pressure is increased as it tries to counter the lack of settlement on Friday. Combine that with the numbers and we get bets on the Under.

Because of the mistake, I must admit and emphasize that some pressure I said was on the Under won’t be, and will, if anything, offset some of that other Under pressure.

I made a mistake, specifically, in the metrics I was treating game two on Friday as having been an Over. It was an Under.

Thanks for the question, it cleared up an error that could have been a problem down the road.

In fact, if Saskatchewan covers or wins, I do not carry an expectation for the Total that is different from the sharp forecast. The money is split more than I had realized.

I hate making mistakes, especially with such a delicate subject.

[KVB]

I just picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +2.5 (-110) 2^nd HALF over Calgary Stampeders.


Good Luck.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

GL

[KVB]

It's not going to be easy, Calgary has been running through these situations all season.

This time even the lines are telling. I can't imagine this success lasting much longer for Calgary.

[KVB]

Calgary bleeding Saskatchewan out.

That's exactly the kind of game that would be played if it's not Saskatchewan.

It doesn't feel like Saskatchewan and it looks like, once again, the market has steered money and looks to take it down using Calgary.

[Ra77er]

Sounds like full force of paramedics after that catch in the end zone. Good luck SSK

[KVB]

They have a saying..."In the CFL, no lead is safe."

Saskatchewan now covering the 2nd half spread, pushing the game spread, and have the ball.

[KVB]

I talked a couple of weeks ago about signs indicating changing and turning markets and I think one example had to do with the second half line. First it was about the spread, then the next day the same example with the Total. In those cases, those signs were predictive.

Take note that Calgary, while pushing the closer, did not cover the -2.5 second half line, which was pushed down to 2.

Some houses were hanging -6.5 early on and in those cases, the Calgary failed to cover.

Things could be changing for Calgary.

I’m not surprised given this was a part two of a settlement this weekend, that we have a push on the closing line of the final game. The market backed out of the play.

[Hngkng]

Boy that was a boring game to watch. Happened to land exactly at 6 points.

[KVB]

Making a Case for the Tie

I have the Raiders tonight.

The sharp forecast has Washington winning 24-21.

The stacking percentages forecast has the Raiders winning 21-20.

The non predictive, non adjusted public gauge show Oakland winning 28-26...

Fawk, burned again trying counter the sharp forecast early season.

There was a little more written above, but in the end the books did a good job of splitting the money between the heavy Raider public and those using long term metrics seeking the Underdog. Naturally, those long term metrics won tonight.

So did the sharp forecast and I'm surprised the upset moneyline prediction paid tonight. It was also successful against the Total.

Two things about the upset moneyline I want to mention. First, the sharp forecast predicted Minnesota to win and my books will have that, after movement, as an upset prediction against the close. I had Minnesota, but for other reasons mentioned when I posted it. It also predicted Seattle and Cincinnati to win today as underdogs.

I took Tennessee and hit the Green Bay moneyline heavy live when they were down and started to come back. At that point, upset moneyline predictions against the close were 1-2. I’ve posted before about the sharp forecast predicting upsets about 33% of the time and that does not vary much over time.

I gave some back trying to counter the upset prediction with Oakland in the night game but did not fall for accumulating a live comeback moneyline. That happened with Green Bay already. This is not past posting; I posted all of those above plays in the Forum.

The second thing about the moneyline upset is that the sharp forecast also had Washington beating the Rams last week, which closed with Washington the underdog. It is not often that a team, early season or not, will get consecutive moneyline upsets as predicted by the sharp forecast. That’s part of the surprise of upsets. I can tell you this, if Washington keeps up this habit, they will be sure to disappoint down the stretch or in the playoffs.

Curiously, the sharp forecast for the swing game also predicts a moneyline upset. Again, we've only had two weeks of data and we really need 4 weeks to get rolling. At that time, the money in the market will sharpen and the sharp forecast is designed to beat it. I might post every game week 5, and then we can see how it stacks up.

The early season sharp forecast says Arizona wins with 41 points to Dallas' 20 points.

The early season stacking forecast shows Dallas winning 21-20.

The public gauge shows Dallas winning 24-23.

Think about the Sunday forecasts and gauge and then look at the numbers for Monday. Notice any similarities?

We see the same thing we saw Sunday night with the sharp forecast predicting an upset, the stacking forecast being identical, and the public gauge showing a result inside the low line with the favorite still winning.

After what happened in the game Sunday night, does Arizona have a chance to win that game? Remember, it’s not what they bring, it’s how they bring it.

Let’s talk give and take. Last week, favorites covered 6 of the 8 morning games with no upsets while the underdogs covered 4 of the 5 afternoon games with 3 upsets against the close. The Sunday night game was the favorite while Monday brought the upset.

This week was the exact opposite. Underdogs covered 9 out 10 morning games against the closer with 7 upsets while the favorites covered 2 out of 3 afternoon games with no upsets. The Sunday night game was the upset, what will the Monday night game bring?

By the way, the only favorite to cover in the morning today was Atlanta. Did you see how that game ended? It’s not what they bring…

So again, does Arizona have a chance to win this game? My metrics strongly suggest that they don’t but look at the Sunday night game. When metrics have the analyst jumping from the upset forecast, and joining the public, it’s the recipe for an upset.

Also, for the first three weeks of the season, when predicting moneyline upsets against the close, the sharp forecast is 3 wins and 4 losses. Remember the tendency to perform around 33% is strong with little variance, regardless of sample size.

I see two scenarios. I think the line could push, on the 3, just like it did for the final game of week 1. Maybe we’ll see some -2.5’s out there, giving Dallas a cover. The pressure on Dallas is mounting though, even if the line drops. Bettors who have been successful may seek the favorite, along with the public, and now I’m talking about Zona not winning, contrary to the forecast.

Or, perhaps as way to settle the week, the market could consider the moneylines already settled whereby we would see a tie on the moneyline with the underdog covering the spread. Imagine that, a tie. The need for it not to be Arizona could be so strong that taking the Dallas moneyline won’t pay either; and neither will the favorite spread. We’ve seen this before, under different circumstances. It’s also a different case for seeing a -2.5 line, so bettors take the spread, instead of the moneyline. There aren’t usually easy ways out like that in the NFL and even the -2.5 could prove costly.

Of all the weeks to place a bet that long shot of the tie, this looks like a good one.

[KVB]

...Or, perhaps as way to settle the week, the market could consider the moneylines already settled whereby we would see a tie on the moneyline with the underdog covering the spread...

At halftime, the game is tied 7-7. The first half moneyline pushed and the first half underdog spread paid.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. Let's see if it's indicative of the final result.

[Hngkng]

Just some notes for you all.
Lindley took first team reps for Ottawa at practice. Confirmed starting on Thursday.
Drew Willy will start in place of Durant for Montreal.

September 28, 2017: Messam out for Calgary

[Hngkng]

I have bet Saskatchewan -3.0 for Friday.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Thanks for the insight. Where is KVB?

[Hngkng]

Anyone here today?

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 20 or 22 points to Saskatchewan’s 20 points.

The stacking forecast shows Saskatchewan winning with 30 points to Ottawa’s 20 or 22 points. I can make less sophisticated predictions with Totals ranging from the low 50’s with Saskatchewan winning by as little as 1 to the high 50’s with Saskatchewan winning by as much as touchdown. The non-predictive public gauge has Ottawa 26-24.

The sharp forecast, in one instance is in agreement with public gauge and predicts the upset here but it also has no moneyline prediction. Last week Ottawa failed predictably and while this week there could be redemption, metrics are once again mixed. Also remember the end of week 13 where Ottawa beat Montreal in the face of heavy pressure on Montreal. In a sense, Ottawa has settled from heavy action. This is the first game and nearly everything shows a gamble. I’m passing on any bold trades for this first game.

While the sharp forecast is below the line I can see pressure on the Over that helps split the money. That Over pressure is sharp as well and with the stacking forecast sidelining may model bettors, the Over appears to have the shot here.

But it’s the second half of the season and I wouldn’t be surprised if tonight’s first game actually stayed Under. I’m passing on trading the Total as it is the first game of the week and I think it could be impatient to counter the forecast with an Over Trade. If it does stay Under, it gives as an idea of moneyflow. If it goes Over, then the early bird got the worm and patience wasn’t necessary.

Has far as how they bring it, it’s the first game tonight and the second game starts well before the first should finish. Look for there to ambiguity regarding the spread in game one as game two kicks off. After the kickoff, look for game one to show its cards.

[KVB]

I have bet Saskatchewan -3.0 for Friday.

I think the sharp forecast should be countered here and it's tough to counter the stacking forecast, that leads to Saskatchewan. My only issue is that if Saskatchewan commands the game, then it puts undue pressure on Montreal, again.

I think Ottawa could take the early lead and Saskatchewan could push the spread late here.

Regardless, I wouldn't take Ottawa and think Saskatchewan or pass.

Good Luck.

[Booya711]

I have to ride Montreal to cover the 17......fukk

[KVB]

When I started typing we were seeing Saskatchewan -3.5 in places. I thought that was a particularly bad number. Now, we are seeing pressure on Ottawa, towards the forecast.

Saskatchewan -2.5 is not a bad play here. Further, if indeed Ottawa does take the lead early, there could be live opportunity on Saskatchewan.

[Booya711]

When I started typing we were seeing Saskatchewan -3.5 in places. I thought that was a particularly bad number. Now, we are seeing pressure on Ottawa, towards the forecast.

Saskatchewan -2.5 is not a bad play here. Further, if indeed Ottawa does take the lead early, there could be live opportunity on Saskatchewan.

i have a small play on SAS -2.5

[KVB]

I have to ride Montreal to cover the 17......fukk

How can you not? I think I'll have it too.

[KVB]

I have picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders -2.5 (-106) over Ottawa Redblacks.

Good Luck.

[Coolcanuck79]

Miserable weather here in Ottawa tonight. Cold and rainy. I'm going with the Under 50.

[KVB]

Alright then, it looks like everyone likes Saskatchewan.

Let's get this.

[KVB]

Miserable weather here in Ottawa tonight. Cold and rainy. I'm going with the Under 50.

I hope so too. The sharp forecast is on the Under and I'd like to see one more Under out of these guys.

...it’s the second half of the season and I wouldn’t be surprised if tonight’s first game actually stayed Under. I’m passing on trading the Total as it is the first game of the week and I think it could be impatient to counter the forecast with an Over Trade. If it does stay Under, it gives as an idea of moneyflow. If it goes Over, then the early bird got the worm and patience wasn’t necessary...

[Hngkng]

Miserable weather here in Ottawa tonight. Cold and rainy. I'm going with the Under 50.

With Lindley at QB, definitely the right call on the under in my mind.

[Hngkng]

I have to ride Montreal to cover the 17......fukk

Is -17 full game or half time? :P

[Booya711]

Is -17 full game or half time? :P

[KVB]

...I think Ottawa could take the early lead and Saskatchewan could push the spread late...

Ottawa out to the early lead.

[Hngkng]

A bad interception after a 7 min drive by the Riders.
2nd down stop by the Riders, but they get called for PI when the DB does not touch the WR, leads to a TD.

Story so far unfortunately.