The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

21 pages on a CFL thread?

Jeez Gimmie 2 hours and a translator,

Gotta read this degenerate shit...

Eh?

Quick summary:

Sharp forecast is doing very well. The analysis on play also pretty good.

Bold plays countering the sharp forecast are a disaster, for the most part.

I continue to expect the sharp forecast to slide however.

[KVB]

I was rushed for time during both posts and couldn't write much on today's game. I was gone most of the day. Essentially I seek to counter the natural state we'e seen when two games are played and also have metrics in line with that counter.

Regardless, I am back now and have pressed the sharp forecast with Ottawa Redblacks +4.5 (-108) and +170 over British Columbia Lions.

Good Luck

[Hngkng]

1-0 today. With Ottawa +4.5 tonight

[KVB]

...This is the first game of two today and last week we saw a perfect settlement in both instances where two games were played. This first game should show some deception or perhaps just the upset outright.

Toronto could be in trouble here...

Well there you go. Game one was not only deceptive but the upset did win outright.

If BC beats Ottawa tonight then that will be 3 moneyline losses this week for the sharp forecast.

That has never happened this season.

I took Ottawa but we're bound to get a 3 loss week on the ML before the season is over.

[KVB]

1-0 today. With Ottawa +4.5 tonight

[KVB]

I'm trying to get the OVER LIVE but can't see a line.

[KVB]

I picked up OVER 50.5 (-119) LIVE for Ottawa vs BC.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

..I continue to expect the sharp forecast to slide however...

That said I pressed the forecast with Ottawa and am now losing.

[KVB]

Ottawa taking the lead and bringing the OVER.



The sharp forecast not ready to give up that moneyline easily.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 31 points to Montreal’s 19 or 20 points.

The stacking forecast shows Edmonton winning with 30 or 31 points to Montreal’s 23 or 24 points. Most unsophisticated methods show about the same numbers as above while the public gauge has Edmonton winning 28-24.

This game isn’t until Monday but I wanted to get the numbers out there. The spread opened between the forecasts and the gauge. The Total opened at the public gauge and between the forecast with the sharp forecast on the lower end.

In terms of the numbers and splitting the obvious groups, the books have a sharp line here. Remember, a line is considered sharp if it serves the books purpose, whatever that may be. Now that Montreal is back in the swing game they are getting pressure but we’re not seeing it in the market yet.

I’ll address this game again on Monday but even if Ottawa holds on as a forecasted upset win over BC, an Edmonton loss to Montreal would bring 3 moneyline losses this week.

The forecast has so far proven very resilient in these situations (as game two tonight is showing) and Montreal has a strong history of failing not just in this situation, but in many others as well.

That said, the forecast is overdue for a correction and there are some signs that it is upon us.

[KVB]

1-0 today. With Ottawa +4.5 tonight

Hngkng wins again!

[Hngkng]

Hngkng wins again!

So did you!

[KVB]

21 pages on a CFL thread?...

Quick summary:

Sharp forecast is doing very well. The analysis on play also pretty good.

Bold plays countering the sharp forecast are a disaster, for the most part...

Today the analysis was spot on and the bold plays were winners:

...I’m not countering the forecast with either the side or Total for a bold play but wouldn’t be surprised here if Toronto were to fail, even against the moneyline...

...This first game should show some deception or perhaps just the upset outright.

Toronto could be in trouble here...

...in game one see Toronto take the lead, lose the lead and momentum, and now the result is completely ambiguous...

...I suspect Toronto is in fact in trouble and that could open the door for the Ottawa upset...

...pressed the sharp forecast with Ottawa Redblacks +4.5 (-108) and +170 over British Columbia Lions...

I picked up OVER 50.5 (-119) LIVE for Ottawa vs BC...

[Hngkng]

There is a CFL today, and I am on Edmonton -7.5 over Montreal.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 31 points to Montreal’s 19 or 20 points.

The stacking forecast shows Edmonton winning with 30 or 31 points to Montreal’s 23 or 24 points. Most unsophisticated methods show about the same numbers as above while the public gauge has Edmonton winning 28-24...

After seeing the largest favorite of the season being covered last week the market will get bold and there will be over exuberance on Calgary, as I’ve tried to counter several times. But Calgary is off this week.

The other side of that coin is Montreal. Last week, Calgary, as the 17 point favorite, beat Montreal 59-11. That’s the second biggest blowout this season. The first was in week 6 when Calgary beat Hamilton 60-1. By the way, Hamilton covered as the double digit underdog the following week.

This is the Thanksgiving Holiday and the contrarian in me sees metrics ticking fairly high here for the underdog. One metric that will ring a contrarian tone is the natural give and take of the market. We have seen in this second half of the season every instance of two games being played on the same day result in perfect settlement on the closing spread, with one push. This is the exact opposite of the first half of the season.

Now we have a whole week of upsets and the settlement bettors, seeking the favorite come out bolstered a bit, wallets fat. I’m countering the public pressure, the analyst pressure, and the sharp forecast with Montreal Alouettes +8 (-105) over Edmonton Eskimos.

Could we see a fourth upset today? I’ve mentioned factors like holidays in the past and how we often see settlement on them. But today there are a couple of settlements facing off, with the need for Montreal to cover the spread being one of them. The market creating the need for the favorite to settle the week may be just enough to allow Montreal to get the cover.

It’s these types of splits that lead to settlements and force bettors into decisions that may get them to pass. If Montreal is going to pay the contrarian, they may pay when some are passing or sidelined by the numbers. Notice the stacking forecast in relation to the market.

Back to the Calgary side of the coin, after covering as the largest favorite of the year in such style, expect them to enter cruise control before the playoffs while the market, and forecasts, over estimate them.

Good Luck

[KVB]

There is a CFL today, and I am on Edmonton -7.5 over Montreal.

Today we differ. This thread gets a winner no matter what.

[Coolcanuck79]

I'm taking the under on this one.

[KVB]

I've done well to avoid falling into the Montreal trap and even pointed out several times that the pressure was too much for them to handle.

This time there is some relief of the the pressure and I'm not giving the same type of warnings.

Also, this week the sharp forecast is 2-1 against the spread, 2-1 against the Total, and 1-2 against the moneyline.

There hasn't been a week with three moneyline failures of the sharp forecast yet this year.

Today the sharp forecast predicts Edmonton to win and cover in an Under play. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Edmonton win, Montreal cover, and the game go Over the spread.

[KVB]

I'm taking the under on this one.

Good Luck canuck, that line is moving upward a bit but I'm passing. I think the Over in Ottawa vs. BC was the good Total play of the week, and hitting this next game feels risky.

[Coolcanuck79]

Good Luck canuck, that line is moving upward a bit but I'm passing. I think the Over in Ottawa vs. BC was the good Total play of the week, and hitting this next game feels risky.

I'm sure the weather in MTL is just as bad as it is here in Ottawa so I'm hoping there is a lot more running and time consuming drives that result in FG's and not TD's. My luck, it will be a 33-30 type score. BOL on your MTL +8.

[Hngkng]

Dang, never like going head to head with KVB, but all the best!

[Hngkng]

I'm taking the under on this one.

Rain like crazy in Montreal right now, I have a small bet on Under too

[Coolcanuck79]

Rain like crazy in Montreal right now, I have a small bet on Under too

It just cleared up in Ottawa so I expect the same in MTL by the 2nd half. The 2h over might be a consideration so we'll see.

[KVB]

...We have seen in this second half of the season every instance of two games being played on the same day result in perfect settlement on the closing spread, with one push. This is the exact opposite of the first half of the season...

This is with the exception of this week. On Saturday we saw two upsets but I still maintain that the increased pressure on the favorite as settlement offers enough split for the anticipated Montreal cover to be in play.



But now that Montreal scored first...

[Hngkng]

This is ridiculous. Fumble returned for TD, blocked punt & TD in the first 4 mins

[KVB]

Edmonton tried to fumble away the ball but they recovered. The next play they fumbled again.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[Hngkng]

Edmonton tried to fumble away the ball but they recovered. The next play they fumbled again.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

4 offensive plays, 2 drops, 1 fumble haha

[KVB]

Edmonton is still -1.5 live.

I almost took Montreal +300 but passed. I hope I don't regret not getting the Montreal moneyline today.

I'm going to stay away as Edmonton tries to play comeback here.

[Hngkng]

It just looks like one of those days where everything will go wrong for Edmonton.

[Coolcanuck79]

It just looks like one of those days where everything will go wrong for Edmonton.

Yup!

[KVB]

It just looks like one of those days where everything will go wrong for Edmonton.

And go right for Montreal.

It's not what they bring...

[Hngkng]

Edmonton: Montreal we will give you the win today!

Montreal: giving it right back!

[KVB]

...But now that Montreal scored first...

...I hope I don't regret not getting the Montreal moneyline today.

I'm going to stay away as Edmonton tries to play comeback here.

Let's see if Montreal can still cover the spread, but the moneyline is probably coming right back to Edmonton. There was no love LIVE for Montreal, as if the market knows what's going to happen.

But with no love for Montreal, it sure gives them a chance.

[Hngkng]

This game will be tight in the 2nd half.

[KVB]

This game will be tight in the 2nd half.

I agree, the line is Edmonton -5 for the second half and it could push.



Happy Thanksgiving HngKng and Coolcanuck, if you feasted yesterday, I hope you get a second feast today.