The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

The stacking forecast, which is an adjusted score, shows the following:

Saskatchewan wins with 39 points to Hamilton’s 17 points.

There is a 27-27 tie between Edmonton and Toronto with Toronto getting about a translated half point moneyline edge.

Calgary wins with 36 or 37 points to British Columbia’s 16 or 17 points.

Ottawa wins with 30 points to Montreal’s 22 points. There is a just slight less then equal probability that Montreal gets 20 points as well as 22. This is close, but for the thread we’ll stick with Montreal predicted to score 22 points.

Let’s see what they hang for lines this week, the do some comparing.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast is not subject to change. It is what it is.

The stacking forecast and public gauge are subject to change, pending any new information.

I doubt they change much, if at all.

[KVB]

KVB, for kicks, post your numbers for the upcoming games.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Saskatchewan wins with 40 or more points to Hamilton’s 23 points.

Toronto wins with 24 or 25 points to Edmonton’s 20 points.

Calgary wins with 24 points to British Columbia’s 13 points.

Ottawa win with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 8 points.

Is this the sharp Forecast's fair lines?

Saskatchewan -17

Toronto -4; -5

Calgary -11

Ottawa -32

[KVB]

The Non predictive public gauge as of now, but this could change slightly...

Sascatchewan 31, Hamilton 24

Edmonton 27, Toronto 25

Calgary 33, BC 20

Ottawa 25, Montreal 22

I think openers could be near these numbers, including the totals. For sides and totals, I think more will be in line with openers than not...

Public gauge: Saskatchewan -7, 55.
Opener: Saskatchewan -5.5, Total 56. (Stacking forecast has 56 total points).

Public gauge: Edmonton -2, 52.
Opener: Pick, moved to Edmonton -2.5, Total 51.5. (Stacking forecast shows a pick ‘em).

Public gauge: Calgary -13, Total 53.
Opener: Calgary -10, Total 53. (Stacking forecast shows a 52-54 point total).

Public gauge: Ottawa -3, Total 47.
Opener: Ottawa -3, Total 49.

I base these on early Vegas openers and, as usual, some houses picked up the lines after some movement.

I think openers could be near these numbers, including the totals. For sides and totals, I think more will be in line with openers than not...

Pretty close, for the most part.

[KVB]

Is this the sharp Forecast's fair lines?

Saskatchewan -17

Toronto -4; -5

Calgary -11

Ottawa -32

Yes, those are the sharp forecast spread and moneyline predictions.

This forecast has done very well since week 4 and last week was it's worst week against the spread so far this year.

All four lines have moved away from the sharp forecast, some only slightly, so far this week.

Perhaps we are in for a correction, but I suspect it will be another mix of wins and losses. The sharp forecast predicts an upset in one game, and I suspect Toronto could be in trouble there.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

When you say "the non-predictive public gauge," do you mean to say "openers?"

[KVB]

When you say "the non-predictive public gauge," do you mean to say "openers?"

The public gauge is meant to give as an idea of what the public is perceiving, whether that public uses numbers or not.

I've noticed over time that the openers are often close to the stacking forecast and public gauge. Where they open isn't always dictated by those numbers. I notice the stacking forecast can be closer to Totals, but the public gauge is often very close on both.

The public gauge isn't designed to figure the opener, but it often comes close. All the forecasts are ratings based. They come up with a rating for each team before being massaged into the prediction. The public gauge uses ratings that are general in the public place and gives me a sense of what the basic public is thinking. It’s based on basic information, just used with certain weightings. The gauge does not adjust for more realistic scores or key numbers, it’s a raw score. After all what does the public know about that…lol.

Over time it has become pretty good in terms of what it's for and I suppose it's proximity to the lines and sometimes the stacking and sharp forecast can be a testament to that.

The books want to split that public, usually and for the most part, so it makes sense that the public gauge is often close. Sometimes I think the gauge is most useful when it differs, especially along the moneyline, from the other numbers.

If I were trying to come up with openers, I would use the gauge, but then fine tune the number with further analysis. The sharp positions have to be considered. Then there’s the question of whether our goal is to split money or steer and stack it.

It can be a fun thing to try and predict moneyflow and I’ve used parlays for that in the past..

That posts explains a little why the gauge is sometimes close to openers. For this week's lines I predicted that the public gauge would be close to the openers, but I don't have that prediction every week.

Sometimes I have the openers being close to the stacking forecast, it just depend on where we are in the cycle of give and take.

[KVB]

Since we're talking forecasts, here's something on the stacking forecast...

The “stacking percentages” forecast, as I call it, is basically determining a bunch of small edges, small percentages, and stacking them on top of each other to create a traditional black box type model. It’s fairly simplistic but accumulates a lot of relevant factors to achieve its results. Remember, I make many lines and some are made from pieces of the stacking forecast to gauge where the market is with certain factors in play.

For these forecasts a rating is generated for each team and then a predicted score calculated. Regressions are used and the goal is to get a low line error. The goal is try to get a more realistic score than the bookmaker can put out. One test of the stacking forecast is to compare its difference from the final score to the difference between opening and closing lines and the final score.

Say the stacking forecast predicts Pittsburgh to win by 7 points and the market is showing Pittsburgh -3. If Pittsburgh wins by 10 points the market was off of reality by 7 points. The forecast was off by 3 points. In this case, the forecast was closer to reality than the line. In my opinion, crossing key numbers can affect this error so the difference between 7 and 10 is relatively smaller than 3 points when compared to the line crossing through 4, 6, and 7 in its error. In that case the book ends up being off by more than 7 points, relatively speaking. Does that make sense?

The goal of the stacking forecast is to match or beat the market error at any given time. Having a lower line error is not necessary to beat the market. Remember, when I track the stacking forecast in threads, I use as little as half a point discrepancy against the lines. I track every play, not just triggered plays (like the sharp forecast in the NFL).

But we don’t bet every game and a subset of games is usually looked at, not every game. I am tough on myself when tracking at SBR, in the CFL thread the sharp forecast is also put up against a half point discrepancy. You can test the line error at any interval or margin predicted, not just a half point difference. This is where I mentioned in the past that a larger margin doesn’t always equal a better win rate. There’s a cap and it represents a danger to teams whose ratings are pushing highs for the season...

[Jayvegas420]

If I'm reading this correctly (which im probably not), this is a very good spot to take Saskatchewan if you expect the line to move to 6 or at least 5.5?.......like I do.

[KVB]

I'm not so sure Jay. There will be pressure on Hamilton and they could get a third win in a row. I'm hesitant because we should have had the last Hamilton win, making this first game a likely pass.

I don't always expect the line to move towards the sharp forecast and this week all movements are questionable. For this first game, that line seems awfully low and you are right to expect it to tick upward, especially given the numbers.

I’m holding off because I think the line may not budge, paving the way for a Hamilton cover. Let’s see what the books do with this line. If it does move, say to -6, there really isn’t too much value lost and I would likely pass anyway.

I’ll probably write more by tomorrow.

[SharpAngles]

Who has information on Kevin Glenn tonight??? Still don't know if he's starting and haven't heard about status of his hand either.

All my reliable sources are in the dark and I don't want to be stuck holding a bad -5 with the backup playing.

[KVB]

Glenn is looking to be a game time decision with a bruised hand. That's likely all the information we'll get.

I wouldn't worry too much about his status, everyone else on the field will get whatever job done that they need.

This information only partially explains the movement onto 4, but it does imply Glenn may be sitting.

A better explanation has to do with sharp forecasters expecting a correction in their already solid performance this season.

It's going to be a strange week in the CFL.

[Jayvegas420]

Even if he is playing, the move to 4 might be a result of the public's reaction to him playing at 70%-75%.
Going with the backup might a better option .

[Hngkng]

Bridge confirmed starting tonight

[KVB]

..the long term sharp forecasts…

Saskatchewan wins with 40 or more points to Hamilton’s 23 points...

The stacking forecast, which is an adjusted score, shows the following:

Saskatchewan wins with 39 points to Hamilton’s 17 points...

The Non predictive public gauge as of now, but this could change slightly...
Sascatchewan 31, Hamilton 24...

The forecasts and gauge have not changed since being posted earlier in the week. This is not true for all the games this week.

I'm not so sure Jay. There will be pressure on Hamilton and they could get a third win in a row. I'm hesitant because we should have had the last Hamilton win, making this first game a likely pass.

I don't always expect the line to move towards the sharp forecast and this week all movements are questionable. For this first game, that line seems awfully low and you are right to expect it to tick upward, especially given the numbers.

I’m holding off because I think the line may not budge, paving the way for a Hamilton cover. Let’s see what the books do with this line. If it does move, say to -6, there really isn’t too much value lost and I would likely pass anyway...

The line is pressing down and while the quarterback situation is an obvious answer I also feel, without considering the quarterbacks, that the line movement is suspect this week. I feel this first game is selling the upset. Does that mean it’s the favorite? Sometimes, but not necessarily every time.

The CFL as a whole is entering that stage, which happens almost every year, where the quarterbacks are becoming questionable across the league. Lulay and Harris are out, and now Glenn is an issue. This affects three of the four games this week and it just so happens to be a week where we are looking for a continued correction in the sharp forecast.

To be blunt, there is some design in this and I could question whether there is a hand issue or not. Regardless, the combination of books moving through BS numbers and now showing pressure on more key numbers with a game that simply won’t bring that kind of volume has me suspicious.

The underdog has been sold, and even Hamilton now has managed to be sellable. Sure, the early notion I wrote above about pressure on Hamilton has little to do with Hamilton and more to do with the spot they are in tonight. It is market moving money for sure, but now it’s combined with the public.

The underdog could pay, like I said volume isn’t very significant, but in fact a market call here would imply to fade that public move and pick up Saskatchewan at the low levels. The Hamilton underdog is no longer ripe; it has spoiled, in my opinion.

This is true even with the quarterback issue in Saskatchewan, which is causing some groups of other real market moving money to pass, money that would be on Saskatchewan.

I would not be surprised if Saskatchewan won this game and took the spread; I stick by the forecasts, but won’t press the sharp forecast with a bold play. We are still looking for a correction in the sharp forecast, but it is more likely to be seen tomorrow, with a Toronto loss, than tonight.

Tonight is a good game to pass on, in my opinion.

[KVB]

Bridge confirmed starting tonight

The line tanking, I can actually get Saskatchewan -3 at this point.

It's tempting, but it's a bit of a gamble. The Saskatchewan moneyline is becoming well priced at -145.

The books are seeking action, and moving the line accordingly, in my opinion, as opposed to just getting action and being forced to move.

It's always dangerous when the books are making moves that get a bettor enticed.

[KVB]

I may pick up Saskatchewan live if the number is low enough.

I'm thinking -2.5 and a close moneyline.

[KVB]

...I would not be surprised if Saskatchewan won this game and took the spread; I stick by the forecasts, but won’t press the sharp forecast with a bold play. We are still looking for a correction in the sharp forecast, but it is more likely to be seen tomorrow, with a Toronto loss, than tonight...

Overall there was some excellent analysis on what was happening with the market in the face of the movement and quarterback injury.

The Total in this first game tanked as well, moving from 56 to 48.5. In a give and take effort, that game stayed Under, against the sharp forecast.

[Hngkng]

What is the play today?
Edmonton -2.5 is my play.

Oops, line is at -4.0 right now, didn't notice it moved.

[KVB]

...the long term sharp forecasts…

Toronto wins with 24 or 25 points to Edmonton’s 20 points...

The stacking forecast, which is an adjusted score, shows the following:

There is a 27-27 tie between Edmonton and Toronto with Toronto getting about a translated half point moneyline edge...

This stacking forecast has changed. The updated stacking forecast has Toronto winning with 28 points to Edmonton’s 24 points.

The Non predictive public gauge as of now, but this could change slightly...
Edmonton 27, Toronto 25...

This line opened early at pick ‘em and quickly moved toward Edmonton, away from the sharp forecast, and most houses picked it up as high as Edmonton -2.5.

I mentioned early that line moves would be suspect this week as well as a correction in the sharp forecast to continue from last week. While the line moves away from the sharp and stacking forecast, I can identify sharp analyst pressure on Edmonton…

...the early notion I wrote above about pressure on Hamilton has little to do with Hamilton and more to do with the spot they are in tonight. It is market moving money for sure, but now it’s combined with the public...

This pressure is similar to the losing pressure on Hamilton last night in that it has less to do with the team and more about the spot they are in today. The difference here is that the money is more split. This Edmonton pressure could pay this time.

I think Edmonton -2.5 and the accompanying moneyline were a good play but we’ve seen some more movement on Edmonton. Now that the line has reached -4 the late Edmonton money is at real risk.

Because of the situation indicating a correction and because it is easy to counter the now upset moneyline sharp forecast, pressure is building on Edmonton. It is very possible that may see a result against the sharp forecast that has been rare.

We could see the sharp forecast fail against the moneyline but succeed against the spread. In other words, Toronto could lose yet still cover the spread.

There have been two instances where the sharp forecast has differed with the moneyline and spread. In both instances, the predicted favorite won the game, but didn’t cover the spread. In one of those games, in week 5, predicted Edmonton pushed the opener of -3 and didn’t cover the closing -3.5. The other game was in week 6, when forecasted Winnipeg won by 1 point, not covering the spread.

This first game could be the first time the sharp forecast predicts an upset against the closer, fails on the moneyline, but succeeds on the spread.

Why do I write all this? I write it because I have mentioned all week that this is a suspicious week of movement. This is the type of week and the type of game where we see this type of result.

The first game sent the line in what became the wrong direction, as predicted. Now, I am suggesting an Edmonton win and not cover. I’m passing on any bold plays as the line has moved into true long term value for Toronto against the spread and I see no need to press it in this market.

Once again some specific analysis for the game, let’s see if it works out as well as yesterday.

[KVB]

What is the play today?
Edmonton -2.5 is my play.

Oops, line is at -4.0 right now, didn't notice it moved.

...I think Edmonton -2.5 and the accompanying moneyline were a good play but we’ve seen some more movement on Edmonton. Now that the line has reached -4 the late Edmonton money is at real risk...

It seems the word is out on Edmonton. It's tough to take them at -4 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a late move toward -3.5 before game time.

The line has moved that much.

[KVB]

Also, this is the first game of two today and let's see what happens to try to determine the money flow. There should be a tendency for a favorite and underdog, as well as give and take in the Totals markets, and this could put Calgary in jeopardy tonight.

[KVB]

It seems the word is out on Edmonton. It's tough to take them at -4 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a late move toward -3.5 before game time.

The line has moved that much...

Toronto saw pressure and the line went back to -3.5.

[KVB]

I tried to find a live line for Edmonton when they were down, but the NCAAF markets are overtaking the live offers.

[packerd_00]

Edmonton is collapsing before are very eyes.

[KVB]

I picked up Edmonton Eskimos -3 (+102) 2nd Half over Toronto Argonauts.

I'm countering the pressure on the second half line and betting consistent with a deceiving first game tonight.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

...the long term sharp forecasts…

Calgary wins with 24 points to British Columbia’s 13 points...

The stacking forecast, which is an adjusted score, shows the following:

Calgary wins with 36 or 37 points to British Columbia’s 16 or 17 points...

There is a change with this forecast. The updated stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 39 points to British Columbia’s 13 or 14 points.

The Non predictive public gauge as of now, but this could change slightly...

Calgary 33, BC 20...

The line opened with Calgary -10 and has moved away from the sharp and stacking forecasts to -9.

Despite the injury to the BC quarterback, the line has slightly moved in the direction of BC. Again we have line movement that I said would be suspicious and despite the underdog winning in the first game today, we aren’t seeing the pressure on the favorite that we normally see.

The line movement is important this week and if this first game today holds, the lines of the first two games have gone against the sharp forecast, but the sharp forecast has succeeded against the spread in both games. We are not seeing the correction of the sharp forecast success continue from last week. Overall, this is a good sign for the sharp forecast.

But the first game is not Over yet, and we still have some time to decide a play for game two. As of now, I am looking at BC to cover the spread and possibly win the game.

The sharp forecast shows Calgary winning and covering but current metrics indicate that prediction should fail. With the current game showing the underdog the natural tendency to buy the favorite may be a bit of a trap and the line sitting below 10, at -9 is indicative of this situation.

I did not get the Hamilton double digit upset last week for this thread and it should have been in here. It would have offset the previous double digit upset bets and would make me wary of another double digit upset this week.

I think we have enough evidence to make a solid case for a Calgary loss. There has been a lot of patience waiting for a Calgary loss and last week’s game showed a close one. Expecting Calgary to bounce back could be a mistake.

The first game is prone to deception and we have a bit more time to see how the first game plays out and to pick up the underdog at these levels.

[KVB]

I have picked up British Columbia Lions +9 (-105) and +345 over Calgary Stampeders.

I didn’t discuss much on the Total and am taking a bold pay risk by pressing the sharp forecast with UNDER 54.5 (-108) for British Columbia Lions versus Calgary Stampeders.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I picked up Edmonton Eskimos -3 (+102) 2nd Half over Toronto Argonauts.

I'm countering the pressure on the second half line and betting consistent with a deceiving first game tonight.

Good Luck...

They won by 2 and were threatening to tie late.

[KVB]

...betting consistent with a deceiving first game tonight...

...But the first game is not Over yet, and we still have some time to decide a play for game two...

...The first game is prone to deception...

The game stayed with the Underdog but definitely threatened the favorite to comeback and tie. There’s a lot of talk and drama about the officials and the uncalled hit on the Edmonton QB.

It’s all a part of how they bring it.

I still like the underdog and the UNDER in game two. The sharp forecast for this week is perfect on the spreads and moneylines, but is 0-2 against the Totals. To be fair, I did warn against pressing the sharp forecast Totals a few weeks back.

For tonight’s game the forecast calls for Calgary to cover and the Under. I am pressing that Under play for this game.

It looks like we may have a live line for the game as well.

[KVB]

An early interception return was called back and led to a punt.

The early turnover was meaningless, except the lost clock.

[KVB]

I picked up British Columbia +12.5 (-119) LIVE over Calgary.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I picked up British Columbia +14.5 (-119) LIVE over Calgary.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Calgary on quite a run and the sharp forecast has been perfect this week against the spread and moneyline while it's gone 1-2 against the Totals.

Once again bold plays fading Calgary have been losing, and Calgary is on quite a run.

There's always that issue, the Patriots, Tiger Woods, in this case Calgary, that defy the give and take. There is usually one on the losing scale as well.

I've written about this before in more depth, probably around Super Bowl time.