The Official 2017 CFL Thread

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 01:53 PM

The sharp forecast calls for a strong Under on game 2. Again, I'm hesitant to press the sharp forecast Totals with bold trades, but there could be something to the Game 2 Under.

We have time and there's more info yet to be gained here. We've already seen pressure on the line as it's moved down to 52 at a lot of houses.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 02:19 PM

Calgary getting down there and only getting a filed goal then followed by a 3rd down conversion for Hamilton. These are good early signs for the underdog, despite the ensuing turnover.

The early game could be misleading.

This moneyline will not be easy to cash.

**Hngkng** · 09-04-17, 03:10 PM

Oh boy, every time Calgary touches the ball, they score.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 03:13 PM

Oh boy is right, at least it's a game of halves.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...Will Calgary fall, or Hamilton get their first win? I don't see it being both...

Anyway we have two games today and there should be pressure for one dog and one favorite against the spread. A condition who's failure has thrown analysts for a loop all season long, but money has been driven and taken down each time as well. In this give an take world Calgary needs to fail, and likewise Hamilton needs to win...both on the moneyline...

Originally posted by KVB

...I think a Calgary blowout will lead to Hamilton's first win...

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 04:21 PM

The line is moving in accordance with the pressures I laid out earlier so I picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +4.5 (-105) and +170 over Toronto Argonauts.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 04:23 PM

In a second trade, I also picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +155 over Toronto Argonauts.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 04:32 PM

The sharp forecast is on a bit of a successful moneyline and spread run right now. Calgary, while hot, facing a still declining Edmonton team looks like they may do it. If a Calgary failure here isn't the cause for the forecast run, then perhaps it's the inevitable Hamilton victory. Money has been stacked, it's time for a settlement. Because Edmonton could still cover, buying game two early is the risk taken to get a better number on Hamilton.

Further, we're in the second half of the season right now, and it's a season of halves. What was true before, won't be now.

It's very similar to the turnover margins in NFL, it's becomes a season of halves. Most will think it's random, but many were creating sharp lines with turnover and mistake stats only. Eventually, those stats, like most others, succumbed to the give and take world of the markets.

Without the necessary adjustments, they were getting priced out of the market.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...buying game two early is the risk taken to get a better number on Hamilton...

The line has already moved. I don't think 4.5 is anywhere anymore, and good luck finding better than +155.

This pressure was predicted, and offers one way to beat the closer. That is other than a sharp pre-game forecast.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The sharp forecast calls for a strong Under on game 2. Again, I'm hesitant to press the sharp forecast Totals with bold trades, but there could be something to the Game 2 Under.

We have time and there's more info yet to be gained here. We've already seen pressure on the line as it's moved down to 52 at a lot of houses...

Along with strong pressure on the underdog, the second game continues to see pressure on the Under, now falling past the 51 mark in some houses.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 04:45 PM

As mentioned, game 1 has a high chance of being misleading and not only has it not gone Over yet, but Edmonton is 8 points away from covering the spread.

As usual, and as discussed in the past, we have ambiguity in the first game as game two's kickoff nears.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-04-17, 04:46 PM

Feel like the Total move is somewhat related to the QB change. Collaros viewed as a wide-open player. Can produce good plays + bad plays. Masoli viewed as more of a grinder, imho.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Feel like the Total move is somewhat related to the QB change. Collaros viewed as a wide-open player. Can produce good plays + bad plays. Masoli viewed as more of a grinder, imho.

I tend to disagree. This information was built into the line.

The sharp forecast for game 1, the score of game 1 when the line is moving, and the low sharp forecast for game 2 is all you need to know for the reason the Toronto vs Hamilton line opened where it opened and will likely close where it closes.

It's a game of two's, and there are two games today. The market seeks to counter both the favorite and the Over in game two. It's the nature of the beast.

We've seen money move like this many times this year, and it has nearly all been taken down.

As we are in the 2nd half of the season, today we may see some settlement.

That said, I'm still not pressing the forecast with a bold play when it comes to Totals.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 05:02 PM

As the first half Over is confirmed, the line on the second half Total is falling now onto 50, and may go lower.

For the Total, the sharp forecast is prevailing here.

Originally posted by KVB

For game two here are the numbers...

Sharp forecast: Toronto 28 points, Hamilton 10 points.

Stacking forecast: Toronto 36 points, Hamilton 16 or 17 points.

Public gauge: Toronto 28, Hamilton 23...

It's a good sign long term, but that doesn't mean it will win today.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 05:08 PM

Regardless, money has been moving, as predicted earlier, and now it's set to either finally pay or once again get taken down.

The underdog and the Under is likely not the winning two pick.

So what is?

Readers, have you ever bought a spread and Total two pick and then wished you never touched the Total? You wouldn't be alone.

It's the nature of the markets.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-04-17, 05:10 PM

Played some OVER 50.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Played some OVER 50.

Now you're talkin'.

It's never bad to counter the frenzy, especially on the Holiday, but now the line has totally crashed.

Both lines crumbling downward.

At this point, it's ridiculous.

Good Luck Chucky, let's both cash.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 05:21 PM

In regards to both the spread and Total, this has the makings of a dirty one, especially if it's Hamilton's night to win a game.

The market wants its settlement and my constantly changing screen is showing it all too well.

**Booya711** · 09-04-17, 05:30 PM

Toronto -3

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by Booya711

Toronto -3

Good Luck Booya, my bold play is on the other side, back at +4.5.

Nothing wrong with countering these moves at this level. Same with the Total.

Maybe we see a 4 point game here, it would be sad for Hamilton, to not get a win here. This is one of the best chances their going to get.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 05:44 PM

Hamilton opening drive:

1) Delay of game on first play of game....

2) Masoli overthrows the back on the side flank...

3) Masoli throws a pick as he gets tackled...

Also, the weather is terrible, further justifying the market steam on the Under.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 06:27 PM

I picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +5.5 (-119) LIVE over Toronto Argonauts.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 06:35 PM

In a second strike, with a different price, I picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +5.5 (-109) LIVE over Toronto Argonauts.

The game is in a delay, fuk.

Good Luck.

**Jayvegas420** · 09-04-17, 07:09 PM

Probably postponed. Weather isnt likly to let up.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 07:27 PM

Fuk Jay, was hoping to get some resolution this game.

I'm listening to TSN 1050 Toronto online. Just waiting for word. If enough time passes, it will become the post game show.

TSN scoreboard shows the score as a "Final."
Win or lose, I'd like to settle these bets, not get them returned.

Ti-Cats staying loose throwing the ball on the cement. Radio talking as if the game still may continue, but not soon.

Just need the lightning to pass.

**Booya711** · 09-04-17, 07:29 PM

What the fukk is going on in Hamilton???????

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 07:34 PM

Lightning delay, they emptied the stadium, but it sounds like they still hope to resume.

Toronto leads 6-0 about halfway through the 2nd.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 08:02 PM

Lightning struck Tim Horton's field and knocked out the feed to Toronto radio...

One of many tech difficulties, but all talk is that they plan to resume.

Actually just said a 9:30 start time.

Game set to resume in 30 minutes.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 08:21 PM

Teams will warm up now then start to play.

There are about 9 minutes left in the 2nd quarter but they will not take a break at halftime. The halftime break will be like a quarter break, no more.

Field said to be slick but it's not raining and wind has died down.

Could be some better football for the rest of the game.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-04-17, 09:07 PM

Right into 2h. God-damn, what's worse? This game, or my pick?

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 09:11 PM

I tried to get Hamilton +199 live but couldn't confirm, so I didn't post it.

Now a flurry of TD's from Hamilton. I doubt we see that moneyline again.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 10:00 PM

Well, Hamilton +199 was available again. I missed it again and it's back to +175.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 10:25 PM

I picked up Hamilton Tiger Cats -206 LIVE over Toronto Argonauts.

Because they let me.

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 10:26 PM

Remember, that's one unit on the bet, no more.

**Hngkng** · 09-04-17, 10:34 PM

Congrats on the Ticats win!