The Official 2017 CFL Thread

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-24-17, 06:02 PM

I'm on Winnipeg and a little on the over Live if I can get it at what I determine to be value.

**KVB** · 08-24-17, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...Montreal was under a lot pf pressure at the end of last week and ended up folding to a 38-6 loss. Because of the circumstances last week, bettors want that back money back and are taking the Montreal position while the Winnipeg gets hit by the public and as well as other decision makers representing methods like the stacking forecast.

Outside of some market analyst money hitting Montreal many metrics are split here and bets on the side or moneyline are a sure gamble.

It’s not that the market is tight, because the line has prevented some major traders from entering....

Here comes that market moving Montreal money. The CFL markets have been taking down this kind of money for the last couple of weeks, including the last Montreal game.

There's room for some give and take here, but there's not enough to get to a Montreal bet out of it.

**KVB** · 08-24-17, 06:24 PM

Still seeing some 54.5 lines out there and we've had Pinny holding an Even money Over at 55.

It seems like parts of the market want Over bets and some parts have already adjusted to the Over action.

**Hngkng** · 08-24-17, 09:34 PM

I can't believe my luck. Wow

Nice bet for you Jayvegas420

**KVB** · 08-24-17, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

I'm on over 55.5

Nice hit Jay.

**KVB** · 08-24-17, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

I can't believe my luck. Wow

Nice bet for you Jayvegas420

So much crazy scoring down the stretch in the CFL. This time points at the end of the game and then 19 OT points.

Montreal failed again but I think the story was about the Total tonight.

**Hngkng** · 08-25-17, 12:33 PM

I was hoping that the line would move up to Saskatchewan +7.0 tonight, but it went the other way.

I am liking the under 53.5 tonight.

**Jayvegas420** · 08-25-17, 01:22 PM

I was dead without OT!
Any thoughts on tonight men?

**KVB** · 08-25-17, 01:51 PM

The Over was the bet last night, it was a good move Jay.

I'm working on tonight but let me just say, looking forward, that I think we are looking at Toronto taking down Calgary in game two Saturday.

I'll get to it later, but I see many indications that Calgary will fail and the moneyflow may play into those metrics. Tomorrow there are two games again, and we know how that's been working out. It may be time for some give, after all the take.

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-25-17, 02:01 PM

Although I haven't been posting too many CFL picks on my own picks thread, I think Edmonton covers tonight (-5.5) and the total goes over and it won't take overtime to get this.

**KVB** · 08-25-17, 05:52 PM

The sharp forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 39 points to Edmonton’s 33 or 34 points.

The stacking forecast shows Edmonton winning with 30 or 31 points to Saskatchewan’s 24 or 25 points. Some unsophisticated basic methods actually get down to a tie game and hit that 54 Total while the public gauge has Edmonton winning 29-23.

The line opened early with Edmonton -7 and has moved toward the sharp forecast. The line is basically at the public gauge and sharp forecast. The Total is just below those numbers and once again the sharp forecast is significantly higher than the offered Total.

The public likes their Overs and tonight so do those numbers, even if by only little. There’s a reason the line is 53.5 coming off of 54 and the books are likely taking a small position on the Under by attracting those over bettors. It doesn’t seem to be much of a position, with some bettors passing so be careful, but the Under does seem a little attractive. An early score by Saskatchewan may lead to a LIVE play on the Under.

So once again the sharp forecast is predicting a high score and a Saskatchewan upset that disagrees with the market and other numbers. This is the third time Saskatchewan has been in this position this season. In Week 5 they were 10 point dogs to Calgary and predicted to win by nearly 20 points. In Week 7 Saskatchewan was a 6.5 dog to BC and predicted to win by a TD. Both of those predictions failed and in the Week 8 rematch Saskatchewan was a 4 point dog to BC but the upset was not predicted by the forecast. Saskatchewan won that game in a settlement fashion at the end of the week. That was a successful bold play in this thread.

Saskatchewan took a week off and now here we are, predicted to upset in “disagreement” with the other numbers and offered line. The third time could be the charm here but some metrics show we shouldn’t trust it. Having the outlier type forecast might lead us to think there is a mistake in the handicapping process with Saskatchewan but that’s not the case here. This is by design and should lead to a Saskatchewan settlement somewhere down the road. This week marks the halfway point and that settlement could be stretched in the next half of the season.

On the other hand, the Saskatchewan failures as upset predictions could be leading to a win over Edmonton tonight, but I could see Edmonton stealing that win.

With Saskatchewan settling two weeks ago, the close of the first half of the season looming, and the two game set up for tomorrow waiting, I considered passing tonight on countering the forecast for both the moneyline and the Total.

Instead, I am reducing the risk in hopes of increasing the reward by picking up the two pick parlay of Edmonton -230 and Under 54 (-114) for Saskatchewan vs. Edmonton. This parlay pays 1.69 units.

In terms of how the game plays out, or they bring it, I mentioned that we may see an Under opportunity should Saskatchewan score first early.

I’ll be looking for that signal.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 08-25-17, 06:05 PM

Remember, a two pick parlay is only helpful if you go 2-0 or 0-2. A result of 1-1 would be better fort individual plays.

Also, always risk the same unit even on parlays. Many players will bet less on a parlay than they would on a normal play. This is a mistake. The two pick parlay is used to increase the reward while lowering the risk. For two plays, I am risking one unit, instead of two...less risk.

But the reward is more than either of the single plays individually...increased reward.

Because of the odds being paid on the two pick parlay it can be very useful anytime you want to decrease the risk. For example, on a typical Saturday of NCAAF or NCAAB an advantage player with a lot of plays might put them into two picks to lessen the risk. If the edge is real, or at least active, then over time the player should do just fine, losing a few two picks, but winning some as well.

This thread had some decent discussion…

The Two-Pick Parlay - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/2940105-two-pick-parlay.html

The SBR Lobby: Sports Talk, Gambling and Bettors Chat

**Hngkng** · 08-25-17, 06:15 PM

Thanks KVB. My reasoning for the under is Riders usually are flat on the road, and they are off a bye. Teams off a bye start slower than usual.

Edmonton is getting a few players back, but they are still very injured on offense.

**KVB** · 08-25-17, 06:17 PM

I think there may be a better number for the Total or at least a better price on the UNDER 54 by game time, but by then the price of Edmonton to win will also likely have ticked upwards.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-25-17, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Thanks KVB. My reasoning for the under is Riders usually are flat on the road, and they are off a bye. Teams off a bye start slower than usual.

Edmonton is getting a few players back, but they are still very injured on offense.

Someone is still betting anti-EDM, b/c of injury news. Healthy line should be higher than -5.5.

**jjgold** · 08-25-17, 06:37 PM

Lotta good information in this thread keep it up

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-26-17, 09:56 AM

It's an absolutely gorgeous day here in Ottawa for the Lions vs Red Blacks game. Not a cloud in the sky and just a light breeze. The sun may play a factor but the temperature and conditions are perfect.

**Hngkng** · 08-26-17, 10:10 AM

If anything I was thinking of BC money line

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-26-17, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by Hngkng

If anything I was thinking of BC money line

Me too. And I'm a Red Black supporter. Even money is value IMO.

**KVB** · 08-26-17, 01:31 PM

Fuk.

I made a mistake with the sharp forecasts in both of the first two games this week, and I think it would have mattered.

I'm not making the correction now but will put out two good forecasts for the games today.

There will likely be no analysis as I've been trying to pass one or more kidney stones since writing yesterday.

I haven't gone to the hospital and that was probably a mistake.

**KVB** · 08-26-17, 01:39 PM

Sharp: BC 23 Ottawa 30

Stacking: BC 27 or 28 Ottawa 27

Public gauge BC 26 Ottawa 27

**KVB** · 08-26-17, 01:49 PM

Sharp: Toronto 13 Calgary 36 or 37

Stacking: Toronto 13-14 Calgary 24or 36

MAS Toronto 14 Calgary 34

I think Toronto upsets Calgary tonight

**KVB** · 08-26-17, 01:59 PM

Toronto Argonauts +355 and +10 (-102) over Calgary Stampeders.

Unless McGregor lands that one punch to drop McFloyd, I think this CFL upset is good.

**Hngkng** · 08-26-17, 02:23 PM

Im on BC moneyline.

Good luck all!

**Jayvegas420** · 08-27-17, 08:51 AM

Redblacks still suck but they were due to for a break out game.

**KVB** · 08-31-17, 02:52 PM

Sharp: Ottawa 40 or more points, Montreal 24 or 25 points

Stacking: Ottawa 27 or 28 points, Montreal 27 or 28 points. An EXACT tie in the raw score.

Public gauge: Ottawa 24, Montreal 24

**Hngkng** · 08-31-17, 04:02 PM

Red blacks tonight?

**KVB** · 09-03-17, 01:18 PM

Sharp: Winnipeg 36 points, Saskatchewan 40 or more points. (Raw score is actually a 5 or 6 point win for Saskatchewan).

Stacking: Winnipeg 27 or 28 points, Saskatchewan 30 points.

Public Gauge: Winnipeg 32, Saskatchewan 33.

I can't provide much in analysis with completed metrics. I have been busy catching up from the down time and have a mountain of work ahead.

Like I mentioned, there were two errors last week and I need to make sure they are corrected both in the thread and my books before moving forward. I'll get there.

**Jayvegas420** · 09-03-17, 11:50 PM

I am on the under in the early game today.

Jeremiah Masoli will get his first start of the season after Zach Collaros struggled once again in the 37-18 setback to the Ottawa Redblacks on Aug. 18. "Change is good sometimes and Zach's been through a lot at the end of last year and this year," Jones told reporters. "I expect him to be ready to play but we're going to start Jeremiah." Hamilton revealed that it held a workout for former Texas A&M star Johnny Manziel, who was selected 22nd overall by the Cleveland Browns in the 2014 NFL draft and was released a year later for his off-the-field issues, but opted against offering him a roster spot for the time being.

Hamilton has lost 13 of its last 14 regular-season games dating back to last year.

Toronto leads the CFL in sacks with 32.

**Hngkng** · 09-04-17, 11:43 AM

Hey all, sorry I did not post yesterday for the Bombers/Riders game.

Jayvegas420 when you say the early game you mean Calgary/Edmonton? Because they play before the East matchup.

Right now, I am leaning on Edmonton +10.0, and Toronto -4.5.

**jjgold** · 09-04-17, 11:47 AM

Tailing a lot of guys know what they are doing here

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 01:39 PM

Honestly not quite where I want to be with the CFL market. Will Calgary fall, or Hamilton get their first win? I don't see it being both. The forecast has been stellar and I still have two mistakes from last week, one of which worked for the forecast. I don't like this and of course it will another asterisk on the record, but the records must remain accurate.

Anyway we have two games today and there should be pressure for one dog and one favorite against the spread. A condition who's failure has thrown analysts for a loop all season long, but money has been driven and taken down each time as well. In this give an take world Calgary needs to fail, and likewise Hamilton needs to win...both on the moneyline.

It could be Edmonton this morning but here's the numbers, without much analysis...

Sharp forecast: Edmonton 16 or 17 points, Calgary 36 points.

Stacking forecast: Edmonton 17 or 19 points, Calgary 34 or 36 points.

Public Gauge: Edmonton 20, Calgary 34.

A lot of agreement on Calgary and I have countered that agreement with Edmonton Eskimos +10.5 (-105) and +390 over Calgary Stampeders.

Good Luck.

**Hngkng** · 09-04-17, 01:46 PM

Ahh like it, KVB, already was on Edmonton +10.5; but love when you confirm!

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 01:47 PM

For game two here are the numbers...

Sharp forecast: Toronto 28 points, Hamilton 10 points.

Stacking forecast: Toronto 36 points, Hamilton 16 or 17 points.

Public gauge: Toronto 28, Hamilton 23

**KVB** · 09-04-17, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Ahh like it, KVB, already was on Edmonton +10.5; but love when you confirm!

Let's get this.

As far as how it's played I think a Calgary blowout will lead to Hamilton's first win. This first game could be misleading, as money is ready to move.

It should be interesting down the stretch.

The forecast Totals got a few wins back recently but the line for game 1 is too close and the sharp forecast barely calls the Under. The excitement could lead to an Over.

It's a pass on the total for me for game 1.