The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

...Live bets are tough to tell and will likely be tallied in a separate record. The vigorish is high, but I wanted to show what I was playing...

That was supposes to say "tail" with my point being it's much tougher to see a live play and then try to pick up the same numbers.

I post the numbers I get, but I also try to get widely available numbers at the time, and not some number that can't be played when posted.

Sometimes, I see lines move just after I buy and post, I hope that doesn't hurt anyone. Truthfully, it may only make a difference a couple of times if at all throughout the season.

Live plays just aren't as easy to work with in posting, live trading is tough and sometimes it's a Will Hill play that I simply can't get confirmed in time to realistically post.

I try.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

CFL (in general) a very weird league b/c of the scoring.

This year, even more so. I'm trying to figure out if there's any subtle rule change making an impact. Teams can challenge any play, and the Interference is seemingly called often.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Teams seemingly score at will. One KEY rule that people don't know about:

* 1-yard buffer for neutral zone. So, 3rd down rushes USUALLY work. Hard to close the gap quickly.

[Art Vandelay]

Ott just killed me tonight! It's August and the defending champs have 1 win - you'd expect a bit of urgency after 11 days off and playing at home. Nicholls outplayed Harris down the stretch; Powell runs for a 52 yard score and doesn't return; Maher with a horrendous punt; and then they somehow give up a single up 4 late - just ridiculous! Could not get a single stop in crunch time the last 2+ mins - Just a pathetic effort!

[KVB]

CFL (in general) a very weird league b/c of the scoring.

This year, even more so. I'm trying to figure out if there's any subtle rule change making an impact. Teams can challenge any play, and the Interference is seemingly called often.

Actually, a rule was changed mid season here so that coaches only get 1 challenge. Some of this ability to challenge even non-calls is relatively new and they are trying to adjust to the subtleties. Last year they made a rule mid season for the timeout penalty for failed challenges.

They were trying to limit the challenges and review time. This season it's one challenge and a limited amount of time for the refs to review.

Not sure if it's made any impact, outside of higher scoring because of the ability to review uncalled PI's; the CFL has always had built in late game drama.

[KVB]

Good Live numbers still available for both Hamilton and the UNDER.

[KVB]

Final live play tonight is Hamilton Tiger-Cats +380 LIVE over Edmonton Eskimos.

Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The Unders have me spooked in this league. Scoring everywhere.

People don't realize how many different ways to score. Goal-posts on goal-line, so all kicks much easier.

Key play in that Winn/Ott game was Medlock kicking Single on a late Kickoff! Made the margin 3, instead of 4. How many people knew u could score a point on a Kickoff?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Try being a Def Coordinator in this league:

* 12 offensive players.
* Field is 20% wider than NFL (and much longer).
* Multiple offensive players can go in-motion and they can run TOWARD the line of scrimmage.

Good luck.

[KVB]

There have been 27 games in the CFL so far this year. There are 15 OVERS to 12 UNDERS.

But...we have seen 6 straight OVERS and 7 out of the last 9 games have gone OVER.

Tonight's game is going to stay UNDER.

If not, it's one hell of a shake out, in many different ways. The live line is rising, up to 64.5.

I just don't think it's going Over.

I could understand a push on the 10 point line, but an OVER in game two tonight would be really stretching things.

[KVB]

Ok, I bit one more time with UNDER 64.5 (-119) LIVE for Hamilton versus Edmonton.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ok, I bit one more time with UNDER 64.5 (-119) LIVE for Hamilton versus Edmonton.

Sort of like it, but HAM defense needs to grow a set of balls.

[KVB]

I'm no longer worried about tracking these live plays separately. The numbers I picked up have been widely available most of this half. I can put all my losses together...lol.

And yeah, Hamilton's going to need to grow a pair on defense, at least it's a game of halves.

[KVB]

Some pressure on that 2nd half Under, the 28 opener is seeing 27.5.

Win or lose, the 2nd half Under sure looks like the play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

That picture...LOL.

Wow, guess I have nothing to complain about. Suffering a bad-beat or two...pales in comparison to carrying around 2 testes that size.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Balls the size of Jupiter.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I thought EDM might take Int Safety there. Think I would have to flip the field-position.

[KVB]

Oh, it's going to be a game alright.

lol...

[KVB]

...I wish I had time for more Total speak and should have talked about them yesterday...

...Tonight's game is going to stay UNDER.

If not, it's one hell of a shake out, in many different ways. The live line is rising, up to 64.5.

I just don't think it's going Over.

I could understand a push on the 10 point line, but an OVER in game two tonight would be really stretching things..

Make no mistake, while the majority of the live lines out there were over 62.5 at the least during most of the game, and it only dipped below 61.5 in the early going, the game still went over the pre-game opener and closer. That’s what I’m referring to above.

Once again I was wrong, the game went OVER. But…

If you've been following the story I've been telling you may be able to tell there are shakeouts occurring in the market place. There also have been signs that the market has bottomed and we are seeing a turn...

Similar to the late 2nd half cover with Toronto last night being a sign the market is changing direction (the very next game in the rotation was an upset and the game after that the underdog), we saw the same mechanism at work with the Total tonight.

Some pressure on that 2nd half Under, the 28 opener is seeing 27.5.

Win or lose, the 2nd half Under sure looks like the play...

The 2^nd half line was 28 down to 27.5 in some places and there were 27 points scored. In the live markets they hung 61.5 and above while the game ended with 61 points and oh so much potential for both the upset and the Over in the “lagging” live markets.

Once again, while it may have been pushed into the live markets tonight, and that was my focus, we have seen another indicator the shakeout Total market has hit a bottom. If you’ve been tracking Team Total, quarterly and halftime lines, you may know where to look next for a potential play.

A bettor must first accept what they bring, and then he can truly appreciate how they bring it.

I’m really trying to show something by example, and honestly, there have been good examples. Can you pick up what I’m putting down?

[tradeout]

thanks for the insights KVB

[Jayvegas420]

We all whiffed on the late game.
Ti Cats late score, was a useless ending to what should have been an Edmonton cover.

[crackerjack]

We all whiffed on the late game.
Ti Cats late score, was a useless ending to what should have been an Edmonton cover.

Late turnover was very costly.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Late turnover was very costly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ac34Khe-fc

Welcome u to Crackerbox Palace.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 40 or more points to British Columbia’s 34 or 36 points.

The stacking forecast has BC scoring 33 or 34 points to Saskatchewan’s 20 or 22 points. While most mildly encouraging less sophisticated early season methods (lol) are in generally getting caught up to by the market, some do show a closer game down to BC winning by about 3 points. The public gauge shows BC winning 31-23.

Once again we have a moneyline split, similar to the Winnipeg game yesterday, where the sharp forecast prevailed.

But first I want to address the public gauge and the Total. At the end of last week, I ran these numbers. Often times, things don’t change much through the week. But with the public gauge, the early numbers came to a 57 point total and slightly over the posted Total. After the latest information and today’s final numbers, the public gauge has dropped to 54 points; which is below the posted Total.

Given the signs of a market turn mentioned before I thought I’d bring this up about the public gauge. While the public appears to be taking BC and the OVER, there are conflicting metrics that indicate perhaps tonight’s game won’t reflect the market turn. One is the small drop of the gauge, across the offered and hardly moving line. Remember, however, that the public gauge itself is non-predictive and I mention it to be just that, a public gauge of the teams.

What we saw with the spread and the obvious, immediate turnaround Saturday was highly revealing. Often, when mechanics like this jump from spread to Total with such clarity we need to have patience. There is without a doubt, going to be a turn in the Total results markets, I can see it, but that doesn’t mean it is today.

There are conflicting reasons why the forecast could go either way with the Total, but the number shows no conflict when predicting over 70 points. From a market analyst perspective, I would much rather have seen this number lower, putting the sharp forecast on the sidelines.

The stacking forecast has been predicting, albeit with a small margin, an UNDER all week, and failing. The sharp forecast has been successful 2 out of 3 games against the Total, both on Saturday. I’m not trying to read too much into this but I feel the books have managed to split money here and there are indications that the edges different handicapping techniques can uncover here are not what they should be.

Perhaps that’s just the confusion the market wants to bring that opens the door for some settlement to the recent Totals shakeout. I could see this game being a ridiculously low scoring game, or a real bad beat for the UNDER bettors.

I’m passing on countering the sharp forecast here, possibly with regret of always looking over my shoulder, in hopes that we do see one more OVER. If so, the market will probably show more clarity in the next couple of games. Sure, I could bet the UNDER now and say if it loses just double up when things are clearer, but we can’t foretell that situation where things become clearer at this moment and that would be a temptation to faulty money management when it comes to assessing risk and reward.

This is especially true during a market shakeout.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 40 or more points to British Columbia’s 34 or 36 points.

The stacking forecast has BC scoring 33 or 34 points to Saskatchewan’s 20 or 22 points. While most mildly encouraging less sophisticated early season methods (lol) are in generally getting caught up to by the market, some do show a closer game down to BC winning by about 3 points. The public gauge shows BC winning 31-23.

Once again we have a moneyline split, similar to the Winnipeg game yesterday, where the sharp forecast prevailed...

If you track the sharp forecast since week 5 you’ll see that the forecast has been successful against the moneyline when predicting the market favorite to win in all 8 games it made that prediction.

In the remaining 4 games, the sharp forecast predicted a moneyline upset and failed 3 times until it was successful with Winnipeg yesterday.

As discussed, that Winnipeg game was a major market turn and the sharp forecast being on the right as opposed to the others gives that result a little more weight when wondering whether we’ve seen settlement.

Sure, we could still see another upset, the market was stretched, but another successful upset for the sharp forecast is another story. In the last two weeks, the sharp forecast has had one failure against the moneyline, when predicting BC to beat Edmonton in week 6.

The sharp forecast also failed when predicting a Saskatchewan blowout when they were double digit dogs on July 22nd (note, the line dropped toward the forecast in that game, breaking through the 10 point line).

So when it comes to the sharp forecast, in a give and take world, we could see a potential successful moneyline play here. In this instance however, that won’t outweigh the need for the sharp forecast to fail against the moneyline.

This gives a little insight into my thinking. For trading, these types of results have been quantified, with information including the current market environment and context, to help in making rational decisions about edges and market prices.

Unfortunately, I don’t have indications that BC is an advantage at these moneyline levels in any term, short, or long…as shown by the forecast. I think the result is that it’s more about it not being the Saskatchewan winner, but the market numbers don’t get us to a play.

If you like to lay chalk indiscriminately then a BC moneyline winner could be the play for you.

For the purposes of this thread, barring any other indications, I simply don’t have enough to counter the sharp forecast with a BC moneyline bet.

[RangeFinder]

K,

Is the sharp forecast derived from saber numbers and the public forecast from regular common stats? Just wondering how the numbers are created.

[KVB]

K,

Is the sharp forecast derived from saber numbers and the public forecast from regular common stats? Just wondering how the numbers are created.

Simple...

[KVB]

All the forecasts are based on stats that are pretty much regularly available using different levels of handicapping. All three forecasts can be created before the line comes out.

Sometimes, I use some of those market metrics and adjust a forecast, like during the NCAAF bowl games. That was enhancing the stacking forecast with further market info because there was no sharp forecast. I always say when I do this.

The sharp forecast actually uses less stats than one would think but is, over the long term, successful. It doesn’t go around the block to get next door. Instead of stacking edge after edge, it’s really more about using solid, proven handicapping techniques then tweaking out the common mistakes. It’s more about how you use the info, rather than the info. The sharp forecast is dynamic, adjusting as the season progresses and not just relying on static historical stats to make the call.

The stacking forecast is much more like stacking little edges, based on performance and is more akin to most modeling techniques. It usually represents a successful formula and we’ve seen runs in other sports, but it is very good about being at the market and indicative of those sharper modelers closing in on the efficient market.

The public gauge not only uses common numbers to come to a well sounding game score (which is far from predictive), but it also takes into account a more current public perception. That perception had a small weight that adjusted the gauge this week.

I usually make several lines along these dimensions, ranging from predictability to just being a gauge of different levels of handicapping. I’ve been sticking to the same three for most of my posting. I’m consistent with the type of method I post so that the tracked results have meaning.

When it comes to the market analysis, there are also numbers and predictions. I talk about those, and talk about advantages or not when looking at the market, but to keep it simple I don’t post those numbers.

In a sense, all three predictions are gauges and the idea here is to trade around the sharp forecast using the other market metrics. The goal is to identify a few more winners and hopefully take us off of the losers.

[KVB]

Sometimes the market runs us in circles.

As far as me passing on the UNDER today, it's mostly because of this type of situation leading us to no play...

[Jayvegas420]

This could be the defensive game everyone has been waiting for. Both sides will need to step up defensively.
I particularly like the 1st half under!

[RangeFinder]

K,

It would be awesome to do this kind of analysis with horse racing. Though, you would go crazy.

[KVB]

This could be the defensive game everyone has been waiting for. Both sides will need to step up defensively.
I particularly like the 1st half under!

Let's just say the streak breaking bettors and streak breaking mentality sure does deserve an Under tonight, on multiple levels.

Look at the forecasts, recent Total results for the teams, and you already see money stacking. This is one Under I'm willing to pass up but a 1-0 first half wouldn't surprise me.

[KVB]

K,

It would be awesome to do this kind of analysis with horse racing. Though, you would go crazy.

So true, but once we we're underway, it would be non stop. One race after the next. You start the day with a game plan, then all hell breaks loose.

Crazy.

[RangeFinder]

So true, but once we we're underway, it would be non stop. One race after the next. You start the day with a game plan, then all hell breaks loose.

Crazy.

Example, next race at Del Mar. Market is not sufficient. #1 way over played, leaving the next two betting choices at great odds.

Ah nevermind, I don't want to make you crazy, lol.

[Hngkng]

Im on over 55.5 in the BC/SK game today.