In Defense of Nate Silver

[gojetsgomoxies]

not a massive Nate fan like some others.. but i do like his work.

Nate was going off all kinds of polls, the most reputable ones showing Hilary comfortably ahead.

he i think had Trump at 30% right before election vs. market odds of 14% (i could stand corrected as to where the final pre-election odds settled)....

he was one of the more prominent professional commentators on the possibility that the polls weren't accurately capturing the picture...

obviously, nate and many others including myself needed to consider the possibilty that the polls didn't accurately reflect the voting outlook. and it disappoints me that after the election result his website seem to tabulate all kinds of recent "election vs. polling" surprises in the last couple of years.

two last things,

the media is inherent liberal and politically correct. people are "sick and tired" of political correctness.

i think the analysis that needed to be done was the following: assuming voter turnout is usually 60% in a presidential election, we needed an analysis of those 40% non-voters. their demographic and regional breakdown and why they don't vote.

that's my rant... i remain a big fan of Nate Silver

[gojetsgomoxies]

i would also note Nate got in a big dispute with someone at Huffington Post in the last week over that person thinking Nate made too many adjustments in Trump's favour to basic polling data...

i will add that i think all of Nate's adjustments have an objective basis but there may be so many of them that you can argue the final output is ultimately subjective i.e. Nate's subjective assessment of what objective changes to make..

[jjgold]

Where is Cuban now?

[lolz_69]

His job is to predict. he sucks at it. period. kill urself \*\*\*\*\*\*

[gojetsgomoxies]

what did Cuban do exactly? supported Trump and then pulled his support?

i have seen his name associated alot with election but i don't click-thru as i really don't care about one person's opinion - and i don't expect others to care about mine.

[gojetsgomoxies]

one thing i will say about nate's 50 for 50 states perfect record in 2012. he was a bit bullish on obama and that's how it came down.

this year, consensus or very very slight trump bull got 47 of 50 states right. i think only 3 states flipped - 2 quite unexpectedly. i think trump was consensus ohio, NC and florida. but Penn was a "bridge too far"

unfortunately for hilary they were big states and they actually turned out to quite close once 100% of votes were counted. fyi, wisconsin narrowed like crazy in the last 20% of votes reported.