JayRow's World Famous Hockey Picks

[JayRow]

Yesterday: 1-2; -3.2 units
YTD: 33-27; +8.47 units

Maple Leafs -109
Blue Jackets +155
Blackhawks +155
Ducks +152
Hurricanes/Senators UNDER 5 +105
Blue Jackets/Panthers UNDER 5.5 -140
Devils/Penguins UNDER 5 +105
Wild/Blues UNDER 5 -120

All 1 unit plays

On the road today and enjoy the weekend. Good luck today.

[Jayvegas420]

National very chalky.
I like it
GL

[JayRow]

National very chalky.
I like it
GL

Thanks. Don't want to harp on yesterday, just want to move on because days like that happen. Appreciate the support.

[JayRow]

Yesterday: 4-4; +0.31 units
YTD: 37-31; +8.78 units

Well that was a shame last night. Nothing went our way. We lost a shootout, an overtime period, and two empty net goals by the attacking team (~10% probability) on our way to our four losses. Shame. These are the nights that frustrate me because the potential for the big night was there, and just didn't go our way.

Today's Plays:
Hurricanes/Panthers OVER 5 -130 - PUSH
Flyers/Flames OVER 5.5 +130 - WIN
Jets +109 - WIN
Jets/Preds UNDER 5.5 -135 - WIN

Going to the Texans/Chargers game today. Have a great day.

[Jayvegas420]

Typo...
"Not very chalky"

Chargers cover?

[JayRow]

Typo...
"Not very chalky"

Chargers cover?

they did although i did not bet on the game

[JayRow]

Today's Results: 3-0-1, +3.39 units
YTD: 40-31; +12.17 units

The old zero goal 3rd period to prevent us from 4-0. I'll take 3-0-1 though!

[JayRow]

No plays today. Hope my gang wakes up... quiet in here past few days.

[Flea Hotel]

you got potential kid.

No plays today. Hope my gang wakes up... quiet in here past few days.

[crackerjack]

No plays today. Hope my gang wakes up... quiet in here past few days.

Nice day yesterday. So busy betting football, I forgot to check your thread this weekend.

You don't like Islanders Over? I think that game is going to be high scoring... will be betting the over and several props.

[JayRow]

Nice day yesterday. So busy betting football, I forgot to check your thread this weekend.

You don't like Islanders Over? I think that game is going to be high scoring... will be betting the over and several props.

Don't have an opinion via my calculations, but there are unlimited combinations of ways to project games so I'm not saying it's impossible to find an edge for this situation.

What makes you think it will be high scoring?

[crackerjack]

Don't have an opinion via my calculations, but there are unlimited combinations of ways to project games so I'm not saying it's impossible to find an edge for this situation.

What makes you think it will be high scoring?

I could be wrong, but the over 5 -130 seems like a gift. Lots of factors, including the goalie match up. Elliott is getting the nod for Calgary and he's really bad. Greiss is good for a few goals as well. Also sprinkling a little on there to be a score in first 10. Only other one I like tonight is period 3 over 1 in the Blues game.

[JayRow]

I could be wrong, but the over 5 -130 seems like a gift. Lots of factors, including the goalie match up. Elliott is getting the nod for Calgary and he's really bad. Greiss is good for a few goals as well. Also sprinkling a little on there to be a score in first 10. Only other one I like tonight is period 3 over 1 in the Blues game.

I will say this. I always handicap team sports as team sports, with team stats. One reason I don't use goalie stats.. a lot goes into defense other than goalie skill

[crackerjack]

I will say this. I always handicap team sports as team sports, with team stats. One reason I don't use goalie stats.. a lot goes into defense other than goalie skill

Yeah I was way off. At least one of the goals was in the first 10 minutes and I still have a live bet in the Blues game.

[agendaman]

jay row i have been doing ok lately betting under 1.5 goals in 1st. period any thoughts on this kind of play

[JayRow]

jay row i have been doing ok lately betting under 1.5 goals in 1st. period any thoughts on this kind of play

Shucks I don't know man. I've generally never been a huge fan of these bets.. it's just a philosophy of mine.

When I analyze statistics, they are representative of of full games. Not halfs, quarters, periods, whatever. If I can find that a team will outperform the line by a certain amount, I bet them. Or if combined, I bet the total.

Knowing WHEN or in what portion of a game the numbers will occur is a challenge I choose to not partake it.

Not saying it's impossible. I once knew a guy that went by "showtime" all he did was first period, and very well at it.

Why don't you tail along and see how my picks do for you?

[agendaman]

ok i will tail for awhile

[JayRow]

We're going to have a lot of action today. Plays coming in 2-3 hours.

[agendaman]

allow me a dog pk JR leafs pl ml over

[JayRow]

YTD: 40-31; +12.17 units

A day off is always nice! What did I do in my spare time? Cash in on the Chiefs SNF and Packers MNF.

Today we have a lot of action.

Lightning +115 1 UNIT

Sabres +130 2 UNITS *MAY ADD 1 MORE UNIT LATER IN THE DAY*
Sabres +115 1 UNIT *THE LINE MOVED, I ADDED MY UNIT AT +115, TOTAL 3 UNIT PLAY*

Avalanche +125 1 UNIT

Sabres/Senators UNDER 5 -109 1 UNIT

Stars/Red Wings UNDER 5.5 -134 1 UNIT

Devils/Jets UNDER 5 -104 1 UNIT

Panthers/Blackhawks UNDER 5 +101 1 UNIT

Wild/Canucks UNDER 5 -114 1 UNIT

Canadiens/Ducks UNDER 5 -109 1 UNIT

[Notorious_Donk]

Big card today man. Good luck

[beavis13]

Liking the unders Jay. BOL!

[JayRow]

Thanks! This is a bit much of action for my appetite but when the models dictate plays, I play them.

I just added on my third unit to the Sabres play. The line moved in our favor, not quite as much + money on the third unit. Should have bet it earlier!

[JayRow]

Sabres off to a strong start...

[JayRow]

Ho hum another big night.

[crackerjack]

Ho hum another big night.

Good win on Buffalo. The rest of the card was ho hum...

[JayRow]

Good win on Buffalo. The rest of the card was ho hum...

That's fine but any day +2.47 units is a great day

[TechnicalTrader]

That's fine but any day +2.47 units is a great day

This man knows his sh!t.

[crackerjack]

That's fine but any day +2.47 units is a great day

I'm not knocking it. Any plus day is a great day. But without that hit on a 3 unit play, you were negative. You have to admit your card as a whole was ho him... I tailed that Buffalo play and made money, so not trying to look a gift horse in the mouth.

[JayRow]

I'm not knocking it. Any plus day is a great day. But without that hit on a 3 unit play, you were negative. You have to admit your card as a whole was ho him... I tailed that Buffalo play and made money, so not trying to look a gift horse in the mouth.

I'm glad you made money.

We have a philosophical difference in looking at things and that's fine. I look at the card as a whole and on the whole it was a great day and a good contribution to a 75+ unit season.

[JayRow]

This man knows his sh!t.

Thanks. You're bright as well and look forward to collaborating with you in the future.

I've been doing this a long time. At the end of the day, and week, and month, ALL I care about is consistently growing my bankroll. Yesterday was a successful day in doing so. A monster? No, but great by all my standards. My unit size is large because my plays are about 80% 1 unit, 15% 2 unit, and 5% max 3 unit.

[Flea Hotel]

Anyone hating on you when you had a positive unit night is a troll that should be dismissed. Keep up the good work. been tailing and winning.

Thanks. You're bright as well and look forward to collaborating with you in the future.

I've been doing this a long time. At the end of the day, and week, and month, ALL I care about is consistently growing my bankroll. Yesterday was a successful day in doing so. A monster? No, but great by all my standards. My unit size is large because my plays are about 80% 1 unit, 15% 2 unit, and 5% max 3 unit.

[JayRow]

Thanks although I had a good first impression of my Friend crackerjack and will give him the benefit of the doubt.

NO PLAYS TODAY!

[agendaman]

JR with no plays today i presume no games fit the system 2 for me leafs over and sharks plus 1.5

[Flea Hotel]

agendaman why don't you start your own thread? i'd follow it.

JR with no plays today i presume no games fit the system 2 for me leafs over and sharks plus 1.5