JayRow's World Famous Hockey Picks

**GordoBombay** · 12-04-16, 02:46 PM

Habs haven't been playing well but let's hope the past two games have been a wake up call. Always confident with Price in net. GL!

**JayRow** · 12-04-16, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by GordoBombay

Habs haven't been playing well but let's hope the past two games have been a wake up call. Always confident with Price in net. GL!

Gordo, it's all part of my philosophy. You will rarely see me bet on a team that is "hot".

I would much rather wager on a team that has been playing poorly as of late, but metrics indicate they have a higher level of talent and "potential". Then we get good odds and winners!

This is the foundation for successful handicapping, in my opinion.

**GordoBombay** · 12-04-16, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by JayRow

Gordo, it's all part of my philosophy. You will rarely see me bet on a team that is "hot".

I would much rather wager on a team that has been playing poorly as of late, but metrics indicate they have a higher level of talent and "potential". Then we get good odds and winners!

This is the foundation for successful handicapping, in my opinion.

I'm behind you 100%. I enjoy the picks!

**MikeTizzy** · 12-04-16, 03:42 PM

JayRow, you're awesome =)

**JayRow** · 12-04-16, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

less talk, more picks please...

Pardon me!

I would say that hockey relevant or discussion based on previous or upcoming picks of mine should be encouraged.

Now back to your scheduled programming already in progress...

**TechnicalTrader** · 12-04-16, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by JayRow

Gordo, it's all part of my philosophy. You will rarely see me bet on a team that is "hot".

I would much rather wager on a team that has been playing poorly as of late, but metrics indicate they have a higher level of talent and "potential". Then we get good odds and winners!

This is the foundation for successful handicapping, in my opinion.

Buy low, sell high! I'm not sure if you are familiar with stock/fx trading but one of my favorite systems is to use two moving averages, a slow one and a fast one.

Variable 1) identify trend using slow MA
Variable 2) identify point where fast MA recovers from a reversal

So basically, the slow MA is the talented team and the fast MA is when the talented team begins to break out of it's slump.

**MikeTizzy** · 12-04-16, 03:44 PM

you understand advanced angles very well, Buy low 'true' values. yes sir

**JayRow** · 12-04-16, 04:30 PM

This second period is absurd.

**pabonaparte** · 12-04-16, 04:51 PM

What... a....GAME!!!

**JayRow** · 12-04-16, 05:16 PM

Back at my personal computer after a weekend working remotely.

Yesterday: 3-3 ; -1.39 units
YTD: 50-39; +16.95 units

The rest of Today's Plays are:

Predators -145 1 UNIT - LOSS

Wild -129 1 UNIT - WIN

Jets/Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 -140 1 UNIT - WIN

PENDING:

Canadiens +105 1 UNIT - WIN

**GordoBombay** · 12-04-16, 05:59 PM

Hell of a game. Good job JR!

**JTrain** · 12-05-16, 12:09 AM

JayRow, curious if you have kept track of your record split for dogs, favorites and totals this season and last.

**JayRow** · 12-05-16, 12:26 AM

Today: 3-1; +1.6 units
YTD: 53-40; +18.55 units

Always great to close out the week on a positive note. Looking forward to another great week forthcoming!

**JayRow** · 12-05-16, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by JTrain

JayRow, curious if you have kept track of your record split for dogs, favorites and totals this season and last.

Intriguing question! Thanks.

Of course. It is a major key to success in this game to be extremely diligent with your tracking. Now, i started the season a bit before i started posting, so the numbers don't 100% add up, but they're representative and very close as a whole.

Also, I went for a bit more volume this year than last. My hypothesis is I will win more units because of it.

This year:
Underdogs: 25-29, +14.49 units
Favorites: 30-19; +6.92 units
Totals: 44-37; -2.34 units

Last Year:
Underdogs: 52-61; +11.96 units
Favorites: 95-46; +29.96 units
Totals: 25-15; +9.06 units

Through 1/3 of the year, I don't want to jump to conclusions. I am confident my Favorite picks will start performing better as the season progresses. It is very possible I have overshot the volume when it comes to the totals and I will diligently research it tomorrow and report back if I make any changes to the strategy.

Great question! If anybody has any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Although I cannot give away the secret sauce, I am always happy to discuss.

**Mike283** · 12-05-16, 01:23 AM

Good stuff Jay, congrats on a nice night. Here's a question: Does Calgary's crazy 8-goal night on only 25 shots skew how your model sees the Flames? In other words, will it suddenly like Calgary more than it should after a fluky night? Is that something you take into account or adjust for?

**agendaman** · 12-05-16, 07:52 AM

JR are your picks all ml and p.s. i like all 4 dogs today

**JayRow** · 12-05-16, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by Mike283

Good stuff Jay, congrats on a nice night. Here's a question: Does Calgary's crazy 8-goal night on only 25 shots skew how your model sees the Flames? In other words, will it suddenly like Calgary more than it should after a fluky night? Is that something you take into account or adjust for?

Mike, this is a complicated question to which I'll give a simple answer.

I will not adjust, I go by the numbers. HOWEVER, I use more than one model to come up with plays. One of them, specifically, is designed around league average shooting percentage. If your assumption is that there is a range (aka distribution) of reasonable shooting percentages... then you know what to do with the short-term outliers.

**JayRow** · 12-05-16, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by agendaman

JR are your picks all ml and p.s. i like all 4 dogs today

As the season goes on and and lines widen, you will see a few puckline here and there. But usually with big dogs I like to play the moneyline and go for the +280 slam dunk. We might have a puckline today.

**Mike283** · 12-05-16, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by JayRow

Mike, this is a complicated question to which I'll give a simple answer.

I will not adjust, I go by the numbers. HOWEVER, I use more than one model to come up with plays. One of them, specifically, is designed around league average shooting percentage. If your assumption is that there is a range (aka distribution) of reasonable shooting percentages... then you know what to do with the short-term outliers.

Good stuff man thanks!

**JayRow** · 12-05-16, 11:05 AM

Yesterday: 3-1; +1.6 units
YTD: 53-40; +18.55 units

Solid week last week. Going to spend the beginning of this week filtering over/unders to try to get us to become more efficient and have a higher yield. That being said, I have a pretty strong one for today and wont hold back.

Today's Play:

Senators/Penguins UNDER 5.5 -130 2 UNITS

Thank you for the continuing support and good luck!

**Catchn_Picks** · 12-05-16, 02:55 PM

JR to the rescue!!

Let's get the big dog tonight

**Flea Hotel** · 12-05-16, 04:54 PM

Need this one... Lost all my money this weekend on NFL. Sold my mother's car (she's in the hospital) and put it all down on this bet. 3300 USD plus a pair of women's size 7 ski boots (my bookies gave me 13usd for them. don't let me down.

Originally posted by JayRow

Yesterday: 3-1; +1.6 units
YTD: 53-40; +18.55 units

Solid week last week. Going to spend the beginning of this week filtering over/unders to try to get us to become more efficient and have a higher yield. That being said, I have a pretty strong one for today and wont hold back.

Today's Play:

Senators/Penguins UNDER 5.5 -130 2 UNITS

Thank you for the continuing support and good luck!

**JayRow** · 12-05-16, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Need this one... Lost all my money this weekend on NFL. Sold my mother's car (she's in the hospital) and put it all down on this bet. 3300 USD plus a pair of women's size 7 ski boots (my bookies gave me 13usd for them. don't let me down.

Don't Chase bro I want you here long term!

**JayRow** · 12-05-16, 07:29 PM

Swing and a miss

**Pakaa** · 12-05-16, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Need this one... Lost all my money this weekend on NFL. Sold my mother's car (she's in the hospital) and put it all down on this bet. 3300 USD plus a pair of women's size 7 ski boots (my bookies gave me 13usd for them. don't let me down.

I went big on this one too since Jayrow only posted 1 play today and even said it was a strong one. I might have to borrow money to survive this month.

**JayRow** · 12-05-16, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by Pakaa

I went big on this one too since Jayrow only posted 1 play today and even said it was a strong one. I might have to borrow money to survive this month.

I hope you are not being serious. I posted a 2 UNIT play. 2 units is 2 units no matter how many plays I post in a given day. Come on guys

**Flea Hotel** · 12-05-16, 07:58 PM

don't worry, there is always petty crime.

Originally posted by Pakaa

I went big on this one too since Jayrow only posted 1 play today and even said it was a strong one. I might have to borrow money to survive this month.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-05-16, 08:10 PM

dude, we are joking with ya. have a drink!

Originally posted by JayRow

I hope you are not being serious. I posted a 2 UNIT play. 2 units is 2 units no matter how many plays I post in a given day. Come on guys

**JayRow** · 12-05-16, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

dude, we are joking with ya. have a drink!

Ok I think I will. What a botch this game was. To add fuel to the fire Ottawa could have should have would have been a play. On to tomorrow.

**crackerjack** · 12-05-16, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by JayRow

Swing and a miss

At least it was close...

**agendaman** · 12-06-16, 12:33 PM

money mgmt. always

**JayRow** · 12-06-16, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by agendaman

money mgmt. always

It's the only way. Am I happy how last night's game turned out? Hell no. But money management is what keeps me around while others come and go. I urge everyone in this thread to religiously follow the unit sizes. It is as critical as the plays themselves. We will have a decent sized slate of games tonight so looking forward to recapturing those units!

**JTrain** · 12-06-16, 01:38 PM

Made you a logo:

**Flea Hotel** · 12-06-16, 01:43 PM

not bad!

Originally posted by JTrain

Made you a logo:

**Notorious_Donk** · 12-06-16, 02:37 PM

Bounce back Jay