Game 1: Dallas at Denver
Sunday, May 3, 3:30 p.m. (ET) ABC
Now this is different. The Denver Nuggets are on to bigger things after five straight years of bowing out in the opening round. And the San Antonio Spurs are not here for the first time since 2000; instead, Denver’s opponents in Sunday’s Western semifinal are the formerly soft Dallas Mavericks. Beating the Spurs gave Dallas its first playoff series win since reaching the NBA Finals in 2006.
Denver opened as a 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1 with a total of 207 points. The Nuggets were perfect at 5-0 ATS during their first-round demolition of the New Orleans Hornets, which included a record-tying 121-63 cakewalk in Game 4. There isn’t a hotter team in the league; the Nuggets ended the season on a 14-3 run (10-7 ATS) to grab the second seed in the West. And one of those wins was at Dallas (-3.5) to complete a season-series sweep at 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.
Mavericks supporters are counting on some of their own late-season mojo. Dallas took advantage of the wounded Spurs at 4-1 ATS and put together a nice playoff drive of its own at 9-4 (7-6 ATS). Coach Rick Carlisle has tightened his rotation and leaned heavily on his best players – with Josh Howard (23.5 PER against the Spurs) earning Carlisle’s unofficial series MVP vote. Jose Juan Barea (15.1 PER) has also emerged as a viable starter in the backcourt when Dallas needed one the most. These are two underrated and valuable players in the shadows of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and owner Mark Cuban.
Denver has the added home-court advantage in this series of playing one mile above sea level at the Pepsi Center, plus the deeper bench of the two teams. The Nuggets are still a fast team even with Chauncey Billups at the point; at this altitude, the older Mavs are going to have to give minutes to their less accomplished reserves. That’s how spreads get covered.
Sunday, May 3, 3:30 p.m. (ET) ABC

Denver opened as a 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1 with a total of 207 points. The Nuggets were perfect at 5-0 ATS during their first-round demolition of the New Orleans Hornets, which included a record-tying 121-63 cakewalk in Game 4. There isn’t a hotter team in the league; the Nuggets ended the season on a 14-3 run (10-7 ATS) to grab the second seed in the West. And one of those wins was at Dallas (-3.5) to complete a season-series sweep at 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.
Mavericks supporters are counting on some of their own late-season mojo. Dallas took advantage of the wounded Spurs at 4-1 ATS and put together a nice playoff drive of its own at 9-4 (7-6 ATS). Coach Rick Carlisle has tightened his rotation and leaned heavily on his best players – with Josh Howard (23.5 PER against the Spurs) earning Carlisle’s unofficial series MVP vote. Jose Juan Barea (15.1 PER) has also emerged as a viable starter in the backcourt when Dallas needed one the most. These are two underrated and valuable players in the shadows of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and owner Mark Cuban.
Denver has the added home-court advantage in this series of playing one mile above sea level at the Pepsi Center, plus the deeper bench of the two teams. The Nuggets are still a fast team even with Chauncey Billups at the point; at this altitude, the older Mavs are going to have to give minutes to their less accomplished reserves. That’s how spreads get covered.