Interesting NFL point total method

[mcgeezer1883]

Why NFL only, why doesn't it work for college totals?

College football has a significant variance vs NFL in the frequency of scoring patterns/great or poor play/unpredictability due to the nature of who's playing (college kids,conference quality, etc)

A significant percentage of college games are also very high scoring, which skews favor onto over bets. The purpose of this model is to eliminate the human element of favoring one side and making the play based on math, fundamentals, and taking advantage of the line movement on the total

NFL ending totals and scoring sequences have remained quite steady throughout the years. And most NFL totals will always be close to or right at a number which is one of the key numbers. Crossing the key number quickly is the ultimate indicator, and in a college total...you may never even approach one.

It is fairly ucommon to find college games with a total less then 50, as most of them creep up into mid 50's or higher. You have more chances in a 40's type total to cross multiple key numbers.

[BuckyOne]

Let's look at the reasons totals move?

Injuries
Weather
need to win
brain dead opening #

The tactic is the epitome of contrarian betting or let's call it anti-steam. For this tactic to work The fundamentals have to be absolutely worthless.

I know - it is not always possible to be absolutely sure what lead to line movement. The tactic is all inclusive - without regard to the quarterbacks or size of the total (33-55, etc.) I would like to be able to sort it for the reason the line moved, etc. There certainly might be some niches where it does not work and niches where it does that have a fundamental basis for why it work in those cases.

It's not all technicals and not all fundamentals - trying to make a rational assessment out of an irrational game is difficult!

[mcgeezer1883]

***Two games on the radar for week 3...one of which now qualified as a play***

CLE/BAL open at 41.5, it had crossed to 42.5 on just bet today....I'd like more books to reflect this line, but the official play is UNDER 42.5 or a higher number if you can secure it.

Next game on the radar is GB/KC opened at 48 ....is now 49, if we reach 49.5, the play will be under. I will keep tabs on this one

[acehole]

cleve/oak???

[mcgeezer1883]

cleve/oak???

Sorry stupid auto correct saw that I was using abbreviated team names and I didn't catch it...yes cleveland and Oakland

[mcgeezer1883]

New game on the radar week 3, along with GB/KC. The GB game is only .5 away from being official at UNDER 49.5...I expect it to move fast, possibly even past the second key number 50 later in the week.

BUF/MIA open at 43.5 and is falling fast...just got 42.5 on heritage. If it falls past 42 to 41.5 or lower, it will become a play.

CLE/OAK is already official for this week, playing UNDER 42.5 or a higher number if available

[mcgeezer1883]

***second official play week 3

MIA/BUF fell to 41.5 at most books, the play is OVER 41.5

[mcgeezer1883]

**** 3rd qualifying play for week 3

PIT/STL just crossed to 49.5 on heritage, the play is UNDER 49.5

Total of 3 plays today
OAK/CLE UNDER 42.5
BUF/MIA OVER 41.5
PIT/STL UNDER 49.5

[mcgeezer1883]

2-1 today and 7-3 so far ...I'm happy with 70% over 3 weeks

[playinragz]

The saddest part of your post... Someone believes it!

[mcgeezer1883]

The saddest part of your post... Someone believes it!

The saddest part of your post...is that you're trying to come in on the back end after it has shown to do well and talk shit. Please f**k off

[mcgeezer1883]

****last play of week 3

GB/KC just went to 49.5 on bovada, the play is UNDER 49.5 or higher

[mcgeezer1883]

7-4 thru week 3

[Covy]

Keep it up bud

[mcgeezer1883]

***1st qualifying selection of week 4***

NYJ/MIA opened at 41, now at 42.5 on GT Bets and BetOnline.....the play is UNDER 42.5 or higher

***STL/ARI IS ON THE RADAR WITH AN OPEN AT 42.5, HAS FALLEN TO 42 AT PINNACLE...IF THIS GOES BELOW 42, I THINK ITS A VERY SOLID OVER PLAY***

[mcgeezer1883]

Went to 8-4 on a close call in London

[mcgeezer1883]

only one qualifying play week 4 and it was a winner, but we already have another selection on the radar with early odds for week 5

JAX/TB open at 43.5, already hitting 42 on pinnacle .....I like this one a lot if it qualifies at 41.5 for an over play. keep your eyes peeled.

[mcgeezer1883]

There is now 3 qualifying games week 5

JAX/TB open at 43.5, dropped to 41.5 on heritage....the play is OVER 41.5 or lower

BUF/TEN open at 43, dropped to 41.5 on 5Dimes...the play is OVER 41.5 or lower

NO/PHI open at 48.5, raised to 49.5 on several books...the play is UNDER 49.5 or higher



There is one more game on the radar....NE/DAL open at 49 and is currently at 50 on 5dimes. If it crosses to 50.5, the play will be under. Will be watching this one also

[mcgeezer1883]

1-2 this week....and I feel like a retard because I didn't catch the last second free fall past 42 on TNF HOU/IND game that was a solid over play.

at least I was at the game live that covered (TB/JAX)

will try to make up for it next week.....GL to all

[mcgeezer1883]

2 qualifying plays for week 6

DEN/CLE open at 42.5, tell to 41.5 currently on heritage, the play is OVER 41.5

NYG/PHI open at 50, fell to 48.5 on bookmaker...the play is OVER 48.5

[mcgeezer1883]

One more qualifier for week 6

NYJ/WAS open at 41.5, has fallen to 39.5 on DSI and Bookmaker, the play is OVER 39.5

[mcgeezer1883]

2-0 Sunday.....NYG/PHI pending

Officially 11-6 thus far (should be 13-6 for actual qualifying plays that weren't made official)

[bferony]

phil up to 51.5 what do u do now

[sweethook]

read line movement but not that way , you can make winners with it , gl sir.

[oznflfan38]

Phil now at 50.5 has been a bit of movement both ways. In this case would the play still be over?

[mcgeezer1883]

You have to remember that it opened at a key number...50. Moving to 50.5 doesn't qualify, but falling backward past the next key number 49 would indicate a play.

Example - if it had opened at 50.5 and fell to 49.5 then it would be over, and if it fell to 48.5, it's a strong play for crossing two Key numbers

You only want to play it as soon as it crosses.

[mcgeezer1883]

The point of catching it as soon as it crosses the key number is to lock it in at a low or high number depending which side you take based on the movement. If you don't monitor it, it puts you into a spot where you shouldn't make a play based on this method.

[mcgeezer1883]

11-7 after week 6

*************

We already have a qualifying play for week 7


SEA/SF open at 41, now currently at 42.5 on JustBet, Heritage, and BookMaker...the play is UNDER 42.5 or higher

BAL/ARI is on the radar as well, opened at 48.5

[mcgeezer1883]

2nd qualifying play for week 7

BUF/JAX open at 42.5, dropped to 41 basically book wide...the play is OVER 41 or lower (41.5 is acceptable)

[mcgeezer1883]

Overall record per the thread now 12-7 (14-7 on actual qualifiers)

BUF/JAX over 41.5 or lower pending

no other qualifying plays at this time week 7

[mcgeezer1883]

3rd qualifying play week 7

BAL/ARI open at 48.5, raised to 49.5 at heritage, bovada and 5dimes. The play is UNDER 49.5 or higher

[mcgeezer1883]

2-0 week 7 (thank you EJ Manuel for being horrible)

BAL/ARI pending

current overall official record 13-7 (15-7 on actual qualifiers)

[mcgeezer1883]

Getting close to crossing two key numbers now on BAL/ARI, is up to 50 at a lot of books. Play is still under 49.5, but if you get 50.5....run with it.

[LokcItUp]

Mcgeezer- I think you you've found something here. Thank you for sharing.

[mcgeezer1883]

Mcgeezer- I think you you've found something here. Thank you for sharing.

Thanks bud...3-0 this week, but had to sweat bullets on the last one. Thank you football Jesus and Tony Jefferson!!!