Interesting NFL point total method

mcgeezer1883 · 10-26-15, 11:10 PM

14-7 overall thru week 7 (16-7 on actual qualifying games)

mcgeezer1883 · 10-27-15, 09:35 PM

4 games on the radar for week 8 so far with opening totals close to key numbers that are moving in the right direction

TB/ATL, SF/STL, CIN/PIT, and SD/BAL

RudyRuetigger · 10-28-15, 05:26 AM

Horrible method

Cash out now

mcgeezer1883 · 10-28-15, 04:07 PM

***1st qualifying play for week 8

TB/ATL open at 48, now 49.5 on bookmaker...the play is under 49.5 or higher

mcgeezer1883 · 10-31-15, 01:32 PM

*****2nd qualifier for week 8

NYG/NO open at 49, now at 50.5 on Heritage. The play is under 50.5 or higher

mcgeezer1883 · 11-01-15, 09:48 AM

****3rd qualifier week 8

SF/STL open at 39, now at 40.5 on Heritage and Bovada. The play is under 40.5 or higher

mcgeezer1883 · 11-01-15, 12:49 PM

***4th qualifier week 8 - last minute selection due to line movement

CIN/PIT open at 48.5, now 49.5 on Bovada and moving upward at most books...the play is under 49.5 or higher

gauchojake · 11-01-15, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by mcgeezer1883

*****2nd qualifier for week 8

NYG/NO open at 49, now at 50.5 on Heritage. The play is under 50.5 or higher

TT?

mcgeezer1883 · 11-01-15, 04:38 PM

3-1 week 8 as my Bucs just closed it out!

Too bad NO/NYG almost went over in the 1st half...lol

17-8 (68%) overall on official plays and 19-8 (71%) on actual qualifiers

LokcItUp · 11-01-15, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Horrible method

Cash out now

Educate me please.

mcgeezer1883 · 11-04-15, 05:49 PM

****1st selection for week 9

STL/MIN open at 40.5, fell to 39.5 on bookmaker and 5dimes. The play is over 39.5 or lower

kfranz31 · 11-04-15, 06:08 PM

17-8 overall but would the 8 have covered a 6 point teaser...the info is awesome

kfranz31 · 11-04-15, 06:09 PM

although no/.giants would not have....so maybe the other 7

iloseagain · 11-04-15, 08:49 PM

good luck man! very interesting so far

mcgeezer1883 · 11-04-15, 09:45 PM

thank you guys

there is obviously some haters, but numbers don't lie

Kfrantz, you point out something that has definitely caught my attention...and that's utilizing this method along with teasers to cross more then one key number to effectively make one play an even stronger play by completely manipulating two totals entirely into your favor, all while getting the same odds/juice as a straight bet on one qualifying game.

I'd feel very confident when teasing a total past two key number to achieve a desired result. The only major concern is the exposure you get in having to cover multiple games, however, it can technically save your @$$ in certain circumstances.

If you were to do it, I wouldn't do more then a 2 team teaser. Think of it like a wong teaser ATS, except teasing the total past identified key numbers to manipulate the desired outcome.

***********

Just for fun, and for numerical data....let's look at some opening totals and tease them 6 points past TWO key numbers, not just ONE, to see what ends up happening week 9 to determine if its worthwhile to add to the method

***THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL, JUST FOR GENERAL RESEARCH***

Right now based on incorporating teasers into this method, these games qualify:
CLE/CIN - open at 47, but dropping to 45.5 in most books - tease 6 pts up to 51.5 to play under as you cross 49 and 50...or you can tease it down to 39.5 and play over as you would cross 40 and 42
OAK/PIT - open at 48 and consistent across most books, teased up 6 pts to 54 - play under as we crossed 49 and 50
STL/MIN - open at 40.5 (THIS IS ALREADY A REAL QUALIFIER FOR THIS WEEK) teased down 6 pts to 34.5, play over as we crossed 40 and 35
MIA/BUF - open at 44 and consistent across most books, teased down 6 pts to 38 - play over 38 as we crossed 40 and 42
GB/CAR - open at 46.5 and consistent across most books, teased up 6 pts to 52.5 - play under 52.5 as we crossed 49 and 50
ATL/SF - open at 45.5 and consistent across most books, you can tease this one either way 6 pts up to 51.5 and play under, or down to 39.5 and play over...as you'd cross 49 and 50 playing under or 40 and 42 playing over
NYG/TB - open at 47 and rising at most books mostly 48, teased 6 pts up to 54 - play under 54 as we crossed 49 and 50
DEN/IND - open at 45 and consistent at most books - this one can also be teased either way down to over 39 or up to under 51, as you would cross 39 and 40 or 49 and 50
PHI/DAL - open at 44.5 and consistent at most books, this can also be teased either way down to over 38.5 or under 50.5

I'm interested to see how this pans out - I'm not officially advocating plays on any of these, so if you chose to take action, do so at your own risk. I simply want to see what % of these teased totals end up covering week 9.

There is technically 13 different plays listed above

a4u2fear · 11-04-15, 09:50 PM

Nice work

mcgeezer1883 · 11-06-15, 10:06 AM

2-0 on the teaser selections...both sides hit either way they were played for CLE/CIN. Looking pretty good thus far.

kfranz31 · 11-06-15, 02:23 PM

it will be interesting to see how it plays out.....i was just considering teasing the optimal plays...because there is always one that goes against all theories....and two teamers is the best option for sure...good luck this week

RudyRuetigger · 11-06-15, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by LokcItUp

Educate me please.

someone has already back tested this and found it wasnt profitable

even so, it does not matter. a line opens at x. the closing number is y. if you look anywhere for research, y (the closing number) is considered the sharpest line possible, agreed? almost all sharps try to beat the closer. so what are you doing here?

you are not trying to beat a closer here, you are accepting the closer and saying the opening line is sharper. noone would say the opening line is sharper.

to compare this to wong is ridiculous as well because wong goes on closers only. why only closers? because that is a true line. if it opens at +7.5 and closes at 6, that is not even close to a wong.

now this guy seems nice and trying to be helpful. not selling anything nor can he since he said how to form a bet. I'm not trying to put him down, I'm just stating my opinion, which almost all sharps would say is a fact.

mcgeezer1883 · 11-06-15, 04:43 PM

*2nd qualifier for week 9

NYG/TB open at 47...now at 49.5 or higher at most books. The play is under 49.5 or higher

mcgeezer1883 · 11-06-15, 04:46 PM

I am not comparing anything to wong...I simply said using the method on a teaser would be similar to wong in stating it has to cross two key numbers similar to crossing 3 and 7. I simply want to see what ends up happening when using it with teasers as I stated.

Play with me or fade me.....I don't care either way. If you faded so far this season, you've lost money.

mcgeezer1883 · 11-06-15, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Horrible method

Cash out now

I'd call this quote "putting me down"

LokcItUp · 11-06-15, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

someone has already back tested this and found it wasnt profitable

even so, it does not matter. a line opens at x. the closing number is y. if you look anywhere for research, y (the closing number) is considered the sharpest line possible, agreed? almost all sharps try to beat the closer. so what are you doing here?

you are not trying to beat a closer here, you are accepting the closer and saying the opening line is sharper. noone would say the opening line is sharper.

to compare this to wong is ridiculous as well because wong goes on closers only. why only closers? because that is a true line. if it opens at +7.5 and closes at 6, that is not even close to a wong.

now this guy seems nice and trying to be helpful. not selling anything nor can he since he said how to form a bet. I'm not trying to put him down, I'm just stating my opinion, which almost all sharps would say is a fact.

I agree the goal in sports betting is to repeatedly beat the closing number. I guess the idea here is that the market made a mistake by crossing key numbers. I agree it is unlikely the market is getting it wrong but I don't know that the NFL betting market is perfectly efficient either.
The person who 'backtested' in this thread missed important criteria and i think that is irrelevant anyway. Whether or not this method worked over some NFL games in 1989 doesn't mean it will or not in future games.
With regards to teasers, I think they lose their value with totals and are more effective only on team sides.
It's very likely we've run hot in this thread so far, but it's a fun sweat. GL Mcgeezer.

mcgeezer1883 · 11-07-15, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by LokcItUp

I agree the goal in sports betting is to repeatedly beat the closing number. I guess the idea here is that the market made a mistake by crossing key numbers. I agree it is unlikely the market is getting it wrong but I don't know that the NFL betting market is perfectly efficient either.
The person who 'backtested' in this thread missed important criteria and i think that is irrelevant anyway. Whether or not this method worked over some NFL games in 1989 doesn't mean it will or not in future games.
With regards to teasers, I think they lose their value with totals and are more effective only on team sides.
It's very likely we've run hot in this thread so far, but it's a fun sweat. GL Mcgeezer.

the teaser part is just for fun mainly...but also to see if crossing two key numbers on two games creates any additional value

mcgeezer1883 · 11-07-15, 08:00 PM

Had an extra $20 in my Bovada account, so for the hell of it, went with 6 selections for the teasers noted above @ +600 and gave it a whirl. Tried doing a screen shot of the ticket but it wouldn't work for whatever reason. Copied the text from ticket instead....

Nov 7, 2015
Time
10:00 AM
Reference
#620719736
Placed by
Placed by Web

Teaser #620719736
Football - Total
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
Under 52.5 (-261)  Nov 8, 2015 1:00 PM
Teased 6.0 points

Football - Total
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Over 38.0 (-261)  Nov 8, 2015 1:00 PM
Teased 6.0 points

Football - Total
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Under 54.0 (-261)  Nov 8, 2015 1:00 PM
Teased 6.0 points

Football - Total
St. Louis Rams @ Minnesota Vikings
Over 34.0 (-261)  Nov 8, 2015 1:00 PM
Teased 6.0 points

Football - Total
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Under 56.0 (-261)  Nov 8, 2015 4:05 PM
Teased 6.0 points

Football - Total
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Under 50.5 (-261)  Nov 8, 2015 8:30 PM
Teased 6.0 points

Risk
$20.00
To Win
$120.00

mcgeezer1883 · 11-08-15, 11:11 AM

****3rd qualifier for week 9

TEN/NO open at 48, rose to 49.5 at most books. The play is under 49.5 or higher

mcgeezer1883 · 11-08-15, 07:19 PM

bad day at the office.....1-2 today, and the last one hurt the most because the under on NYG/TB was basically locked until 3 seconds left into the game and that BS fumble for a TD to go over by half a freakin point. Should've been a positive day.

18-10 overall (64.3%) and 20-10 (66%) on qualifiers

I think the lesson learned when using this with teasers is that it is a much stronger play on overs crossing two numbers....nonetheless, there is still 7 winning sides in the picks posted and one still pending tonight.

LokcItUp · 11-08-15, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by mcgeezer1883

bad day at the office.....1-2 today, and the last one hurt the most because the under on NYG/TB was basically locked until 3 seconds left into the game and that BS fumble for a TD to go over by half a freakin point. Should've been a positive day.

That was about as bad as it gets really gross.

alamo · 11-08-15, 07:25 PM

STL/MIN open at 40.5, fell to 39.5 on bookmaker and 5dimes. The play is over 39.5 or lower

NYG/TB open at 47...now at 49.5 or higher at most books. The play is under 49.5 or higher

TEN/NO open at 48, rose to 49.5 at most books. The play is under 49.5 or higher

Dude I think you went 0-3. The Minnesota game finished with 39.

Renegades · 11-08-15, 07:30 PM

Is this Enron type accounting? Lol

alamo · 11-08-15, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by Renegades

Is this Enron type accounting? Lol

Yup - The guy is unlucky to lose two games by the hook but thats football. What you cant do is come in and say we went 1-2 when its clearly 0-3

LokcItUp · 11-08-15, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Yup - The guy is unlucky to lose two games by the hook but thats football. What you cant do is come in and say we went 1-2 when its clearly 0-3

I agree with that, was assuming he made a mistake and nothing malicious but he can speak for himself. I'll see myself out.

BennyBigNuts · 11-08-15, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by iloseagain

good luck man! very interesting so far

Who's in your avatar?

iloseagain · 11-08-15, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by BennyBigNuts

Who's in your avatar?

i wish i knew, man. she is absurd.

mcgeezer1883 · 11-08-15, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by alamo

STL/MIN open at 40.5, fell to 39.5 on bookmaker and 5dimes. The play is over 39.5 or lower

NYG/TB open at 47...now at 49.5 or higher at most books. The play is under 49.5 or higher

TEN/NO open at 48, rose to 49.5 at most books. The play is under 49.5 or higher

Dude I think you went 0-3. The Minnesota game finished with 39.

it's an honest mistake...and yes to correct my prior statement, I went 0-3, record is 17-11.

I was fukin heated about that last minute BS TD in TB game and not paying attention