Why do you guys think Trump is at 6% odds on the prediction markets? Hint: it's not because they don't like him.
Donald Trump To Run For President in 2016!!!!!!!!
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d2betsBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 08-10-05
- 39990
#911Comment -
15805SBR MVP
- 06-10-12
- 3604
#912Good article here by Nate Silver on Trump's place in the polls (and how he's the Nickelback of Republican candidates).
I almost forgot about Herman Cain. Didn't he poll at 20% at this point in 2012? And Michele Bachman and Newt.
Conclusion is basically that he can't grow beyond the ~ 20% and once the field winnows he will be lapped. He's got the 20% asshole vote (my name), but he's already got all of them. How is he going to add any more? He's nobody's second choice. If you're an asshole, he's got your vote already. If not, he's never getting it. His only chance I guess is if everyone stays in for as long as possible and 20% wins primaries all the way through.
I think it's either Walker or Bush that gets the honor of losing to Hillary.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/d...op-candidates/
Get you facts straight, at this time in the last primary cycle 7/28/2011
was at 8% behind Romney 22, Perry 18, Gingrich 10, Cain 8.
Bachman from the first poll taken 11/5/2010 to the very last 4/9/12
was not in 1st place in any poll taken, noy even an outlier, not one.Comment -
scumbagSBR MVP
- 11-02-13
- 3504
#913trump gets crushed by bernie or hillary.
Republican voters want Trump as their nominee, but choosing him to represent their party would be akin to political suicide.Trump trails Hillary Clinton 50-37 percent in a head to head match-up. He also trails Bernie Sanders 47-37 percent, making him by far the weakest Republican candidate surveyed, when pitted against a Democratic opponenComment -
KVBSBR Aristocracy
- 05-29-14
- 74817
#914Trumpiest...nooooooooo!Comment -
muldoonSBR MVP
- 01-04-10
- 4397
#915D2Bets is right.
Trump has secured the asshole 20% vote.
Unfortunately, his missteps about Latinos, his "I like people who weren't captured" (just to name 2) cost him what potentially could have been a serious run.
Heck, Arnie won in California by avoiding debates/specifics and getting people to buy into his "I'll terminate the high taxes" schtick. Trump was poised potentially for that kind of run.
People definitely are looking for a major change. But a major asshole just isn't quite what they want.
At BEST, he'll be known as the 3rd party candidate who gave the dems an easy POTUS win by finally splitting the Repubs into pieces.
Either way, the guy who never says sorry, won't be able to win in a general election. He'll have his base, and maybe even can spin this into a few more branded Trump products, but just isn't electable.
Not even close.Last edited by muldoon; 07-29-15, 04:57 PM.Comment -
ABEHONESTSBR Hall of Famer
- 06-27-09
- 9470
#916Dwight could have been my son
Yes, and no joke!
This guy reminds me of myself so much, I'm getting jealous.
I would offer the "slick-rascal" a helping hand, but he's already clobbering the whole gang, here, that opposes him.
He's my son-like, champion, and what he writes--when serious--I not only believe all his facts he backs it up with, I am 100%, watching his back. [* If, he needs my assistance?]
Carry on, my new found Prince.
** PM me anytime, D.S.Last edited by ABEHONEST; 07-29-15, 07:22 PM.Comment -
15805SBR MVP
- 06-10-12
- 3604
#917
the nomination. If you taking about the presidency he's 14-1 that's 7% maybe that's what
you meant. All those odds are trending daily in Trump's favor. I took Trump at 60-1 at his
announcement now its 14-1, I could hedge now and win money but I'll wait.Last edited by 15805; 07-29-15, 05:54 PM.Comment -
DwightShruteSBR Aristocracy
- 01-17-09
- 102359
#918Yes, and no joke!
This guy reminds me of myself so much, I'm getting jealous.
I would offer the "slick-rascal" a helping hand, but he's already clobbering the whole gang, here, that opposes him.
He's my son-like, champion, and what he writes--when serious--I not only believe all his facts he backs it up with, I am 100%, watching his back. [* If, he needs my assistance?]
Carry on, my new found Prince.
** PM me anythime, D.S.Comment -
ABEHONESTSBR Hall of Famer
- 06-27-09
- 9470
#919I think Dwight and Abe have closed this thread out
Yep, the evidence is in. We have a winner. No need to wander aimlessly on, this thread has died.
Comment -
15805SBR MVP
- 06-10-12
- 3604
#921Imagine everyone but Trump mentally preparing for this debate knowing they've
already lost the hearts of conservatives. The left is scared to death of Trump.
They're afraid that he has the ear or the new silent majority, which includes a few
Democrats. We are tired of the immigration mess. We are tired of taxes. If it takes
a guy as bombastic as Trump to straighten out the mess Barry and the left have
created, so be it. Mr. Trump sure has sacrificed a lot so far to run for president,
I hope he can put us over the top and win.
Comment -
DwightShruteSBR Aristocracy
- 01-17-09
- 102359
#922
(Newsmax) – Dallas Mavericks basketball team owner Mark Cuban likes the way GOP presidential contender Donald Trump might change how the political “game is played” — and could even consider a spot on a Trump ticket.
But, in an exchange with Business Insider via Cuban’s social media Cyber Dust app Thursday, the outspoken billionaire investor said he’d probably turn down any offer to be Trump’s vice president.
“Would I consider?” Cuban responded. “Yes.”
“Would I do it. Probably not.”
Cuban explained, “I’m not cut out for politics. At least [the] way they are now.”
“Maybe in the future if Trump truly impacts how the game is played,” he added.
Earlier this week, Cuban heaped praise on the blunt-spoken Trump, calling the real estate billionaire “probably the best thing to happen to politics in a long, long time.”
But Cuban says it’s not necessarily Trump’s politics that resonate.
“I don’t care what his actual positions are,” Cuban said in the earlier exchange with Business Insider.
“I don’t care if he says the wrong thing. He says what’s on his mind. He gives honest answers rather than prepared answers. This is more important than anything any candidate has done in years.”
Still, Cuban’s support had some Twitter users calling for a Trump-Cuban ticket.
Comment -
spro23SBR MVP
- 07-17-15
- 1129
#923Sadly, Trump won't win.
You need understand women will always vote for democrats. combined with the Mexican vote + black groupthink that's game over right there.
Why do you think divorce laws so heavily favor women? obamacare forces young men to pay more so women can get birth control and abortions on the taxpayer (men dime). or Title IX, which mandates football revenue be given to womens' sports.
Women are married to the government, they will always vote for more safety nets. They don't care about big-picture problems, they view the government as a sugar daddy. This is why women weren't allowed to vote throughout history. The polls show women think Trump is too 'mean', it's all emotional with women, no logic.
you think I'm being harsh, but watch Trump lose to Hillary cause women just want their goddam free birth control. Dems will have a permanent majority soon due to women and Mexicans, and the USA will go underComment -
brooks85SBR Aristocracy
- 01-05-09
- 44709
#925Sadly, Trump won't win.
You need understand women will always vote for democrats. combined with the Mexican vote + black groupthink that's game over right there.
Why do you think divorce laws so heavily favor women? obamacare forces young men to pay more so women can get birth control and abortions on the taxpayer (men dime). or Title IX, which mandates football revenue be given to womens' sports.
Women are married to the government, they will always vote for more safety nets. They don't care about big-picture problems, they view the government as a sugar daddy. This is why women weren't allowed to vote throughout history. The polls show women think Trump is too 'mean', it's all emotional with women, no logic.
you think I'm being harsh, but watch Trump lose to Hillary cause women just want their goddam free birth control. Dems will have a permanent majority soon due to women and Mexicans, and the USA will go under
people don't like to talk about it because they are not taught to think critically but that was on the majoring turning point downward for this country; letting women have the right to vote. Of course, they deserve the right but in that era and social norms as they were, that was not the time and now flawed ideology of voting with morals and without using a calculator has only spread.
La Raza is happy though.Comment -
ABEHONESTSBR Hall of Famer
- 06-27-09
- 9470
#926More alphabet soup for SBR fibbers, or the other; the misinformed.
Bad news for the non-believers. A few corrections on those lies that were spread by evil, bigotted minds.
The 10 Biggest Media Lies About Donald Trump
By Jim Meyers | Saturday, 25 Jul 2015 12:16
Donald Trump has consistently been outpolling all announced Republican presidential candidates despite a barrage of lies in the media about the business mogul.
Here's a look at some of the more prominent untruths the media have reported about Trump:
1. He is not a billionaire. Forbes magazine researchers have placed his worth at $4 billion, while Trump asserts that he is worth $10 billion. A disclosure document recently released by the Federal Election Commission lists 515 different positions and 168 assets and sources of income for Trump.
The assets include 23 that are valued at more than $50 million each. Many items require that he check the box marked "$50 million or more" when they could be worth considerably more, meaning Trump's fortune may be higher than the disclosure suggests.
2. Trump is not a successful businessman. Critics says he inherited a fortune from his family and has declared bankruptcy several times. But Trump's father had a net wealth estimated at between $250 million and $400 million at the time of his death, and he had four surviving children who were heirs, so Trump is responsible for accumulating the great bulk of his fortune. Trump has never personally declared bankruptcy. Some businesses he controlled or licensed his name have, but this is not unusual for a mogul who has owned hundreds of properties and businesses through the years.
3. He said all Mexicans were rapists. What he said while announcing his candidacy is that illegal immigrants from Mexico are "bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people."
Trump has made it clear he was not saying all Mexicans are criminals or that all illegal aliens are criminals, but the media have continued to charge that he branded Mexican immigrants as rapists. He has also said he "loves" the Mexican people, but was referring to the Mexican government.
4. Trump said John McCain is not a war hero. The Washington Post reported that Trump said "McCain was not a war hero because he was captured by the North Vietnamese." But Trump immediately modified his statement by saying, four times, that McCain is a war hero, including: "He is a war hero" and "he is a war hero because he was captured."
The Post also did not put Trump's remarks in the context of a feud between Trump and the Arizona senator, who has characterized some Trump supporters as "crazies."
5. Only 2,500 people showed up to hear Trump speak at the Phoenix Convention Center. The Phoenix Business Journal reported that 4,200 people were on hand, and noted, significantly, that "there were scores of Trump backers that did not get into his rally because the room hit fire code capacity." Other independent observers have placed the crowd at over 7,500.
6. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus spoke at length with Trump and asked him to tone down his rhetoric. Trump said that in fact he spoke with Priebus for just 10 minutes and Priebus told him that Trump hit a "nerve, doing well." He said Priebus told him "you can't change your personality and I understand that." Trump said it "was a really nice call, a congratulatory call."
7. Hispanics don't like Trump. A poll by One America News Network in Nevada found that Trump received 31.4 percent support among Hispanics, higher than the 27.7 percent he received overall. The only other candidate to receive double digit support from Hispanics was Scott Walker. with 11.4 percent.
8. Trump lied about his salary from "The Apprentice." MSNBC host Lawrence O'Donnell claimed that Trump's statement in his federal disclosure document that he made more than $213 million as host of the NBC reality show was a "complete, total lie." Later that same day O'Donnell backed away from the claim, saying "I don't know" how much Trump really earned.
9. Trump was a draft dodger. Pundit Fact, a site powered by PolitiFact.com, looked into the charge and concluded: "To the best of our knowledge, no one has charged Trump with violating the Selective Service law. His student deferments were routine. And unless someone has new information, there is no legal issue with his medical deferment."
10. Americans are outraged by Trump's comments on immigration. According to Rasmussen Reports, 63 percent of Americans want the U.S. to gain control of the border, as Trump has demanded. His strong showing in the polls is further proof of support for his stance.
Comment -
brooks85SBR Aristocracy
- 01-05-09
- 44709
#927yepComment -
ABEHONESTSBR Hall of Famer
- 06-27-09
- 9470
#928Told my sonny-boy, Dwight, to take a day off, daddy's back!
Fresh poll update
Dan Scavino @DanScavino 2h2 hours ago New York, USA
#Iowa #IA #OAN Poll Released
#1 @realDonaldTrump 30.9%
#2 @ScottWalker 15.4%
#3 @JebBush 10.0%
#4 @BobbyJindal 7.2%
* That's knocking the old ball out of the park. Whammy!Comment -
rkelly110BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-05-09
- 39691
#929[QUOTE=brooks85;24329643]people don't like to talk about it because they are not taught to think critically but that was on the majoring turning point downward for this country; letting women have the right to vote. Of course, they deserve the right but in that era and social norms as they were, that was not the time and now flawed ideology of voting with morals and without using a calculator has only spread.
La Raza is happy though.[/QUOTE
Yep, just like the old days, only land owners can vote. How much land do you have brooksy?Comment -
DwightShruteSBR Aristocracy
- 01-17-09
- 102359
#930[QUOTE=rkelly110;24332411]people don't like to talk about it because they are not taught to think critically but that was on the majoring turning point downward for this country; letting women have the right to vote. Of course, they deserve the right but in that era and social norms as they were, that was not the time and now flawed ideology of voting with morals and without using a calculator has only spread.
La Raza is happy though.[/QUOTE
Yep, just like the old days, only land owners can vote. How much land do you have brooksy?Comment -
brooks85SBR Aristocracy
- 01-05-09
- 44709
#931[QUOTE=rkelly110;24332411]people don't like to talk about it because they are not taught to think critically but that was on the majoring turning point downward for this country; letting women have the right to vote. Of course, they deserve the right but in that era and social norms as they were, that was not the time and now flawed ideology of voting with morals and without using a calculator has only spread.
La Raza is happy though.[/QUOTE
Yep, just like the old days, only land owners can vote. How much land do you have brooksy?Comment -
Jayvegas420BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 03-09-11
- 28213
#932When's the debate?
Its going to be awesome!Comment -
rkelly110BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-05-09
- 39691
#935[QUOTE=DwightShrute;24332503]
Trump's a bullshitter. He has two qualities I can't stand in a person. Hypocrite and a bully.
He has no idea how govt works. You can't just go to the white house and start barking orders and expect
them to get done, you've got over 500 guys with different ideas.
For him to get on the pulpit and bash anyone and everyone sounds real good to the ears for some, but if you don't
have a plan different from what has been done, all it is, is talk.
I do like him running, because he's disrupting the Repubs.Comment -
DwightShruteSBR Aristocracy
- 01-17-09
- 102359
#936
I judge people by their actions, not words. I've heard so much bullshit in my time with little to no action.
Trump's a bullshitter. He has two qualities I can't stand in a person. Hypocrite and a bully.
He has no idea how govt works. You can't just go to the white house and start barking orders and expect
them to get done, you've got over 500 guys with different ideas.
For him to get on the pulpit and bash anyone and everyone sounds real good to the ears for some, but if you don't
have a plan different from what has been done, all it is, is talk.
I do like him running, because he's disrupting the Repubs.
Of course he has an idea of how government works. Do you think he's stupid? Sounds like you think you have this unique and unusual power of understanding of how government works which no one else has? Definitely more than some guy named Trump who has dealt directly with politicians most of his life. Ya you are totally qualified to comment on Trump's total and utter cluelessness on how government works. Maybe you could give him advice on how to build hotels as well? Don't tell me that you actually think that Trump actually builds these hotels himself?
Trump's a leader and gets shit done. The US hasn't had someone like that in many years. I also was blinded by the good looking smooth talking community organizer in 2008 and hoped he would be the new politician as he promised. The fiscally accountable president who would do away with lobbyists and run the most transparent administration in history. LOL. It only took a few weeks to see what a disaster he would be. Yet, you and so many still pretend he isn't a disaster. I'll take back my first sentence in post #930.Comment -
rkelly110BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-05-09
- 39691
#937Typical, spin it around to me and my character. Guess what, I'm not running for the president of the united states.
Sorry if I hurt your feelings about your boy, if you have to defend him and spin, I guess I'm right.Comment -
DwightShruteSBR Aristocracy
- 01-17-09
- 102359
#938
Anyways, you said Trump has no idea how government works which simply isn't true. He knows more about it than you and I. Sorry I hurt your feelings, I was only correcting your obvious mistake.Last edited by DwightShrute; 08-01-15, 09:34 AM.Comment -
rkelly110BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-05-09
- 39691
#939Exactly where in any of my posts did I say anything about you? Yet, you spun it around on me, saying I don't know
how politics work. You're right, but I'm not running for office either.
You asked me about Trump, I gave my answer on Trump. Not about you or Obama.
You have a need to bust my balls, go for it, I'm a man unlike Trump who has to defend his little ego when
someone busts his ass.Comment -
muldoonSBR MVP
- 01-04-10
- 4397
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DwightShruteSBR Aristocracy
- 01-17-09
- 102359
#941Exactly where in any of my posts did I say anything about you? Yet, you spun it around on me, saying I don't know
how politics work. You're right, but I'm not running for office either.
You asked me about Trump, I gave my answer on Trump. Not about you or Obama.
You have a need to bust my balls, go for it, I'm a man unlike Trump who has to defend his little ego when
someone busts his ass.
you also said "I judge people by their actions, not words." and then said"Trump's a bullshitter. He has two qualities I can't stand in a person. Hypocrite and a bully." .... All I tried to point out was how you say Trump's a bullshitter and a bully right after you said you don't judge people by their words but by their actions? Hello? You just judged him on his words not his actions which is exactly what you just finished saying you don't do! LOL!
We all bust each others balls around here. I don't do it very often to you but felt the need to here.Last edited by DwightShrute; 08-01-15, 04:51 PM.Comment -
muldoonSBR MVP
- 01-04-10
- 4397
#942
But when pressed on specifics about things like
- building the wall
- existing trade agreements
- dealing with Russia
- fighting ISIS
Trump has proven himself to be at best evasive, and at worst, totally ignorant.
His amazingly thin skin makes many concerned how he'd react when a disparaging comment is lobbed his way on the world stage.Comment -
ABEHONESTSBR Hall of Famer
- 06-27-09
- 9470
#943Dwight, leading the Bear's of Truth. LOL
Yep, here is Dwight-Bear, the leading bear-with Trump-Bear backing him up-meanwhile, chasing down these nincompoops on SBR, who keep denying the truth, about Trump.
Bear on Dwight, you've got'em on the run!
Dwight-Bear, laughing his bear-ass off.
Comment -
ABEHONESTSBR Hall of Famer
- 06-27-09
- 9470
#944Dwight, who was that sissy-screaming SBR poster?Comment -
Ra77erSBR Posting Legend
- 06-20-11
- 10969
#945The thing is though he doesn't need to know every single in and out of Washington in order to be effective. Any good leader knows how to delegate responsibilities and would be able to listen to a table of 150, actually listen to them all and then come up with a solution and act upon it.
Political bs gets in the way so many times but Trump imho looks like he is the best suited to make a decision, act upon it, even if it may be erroneous.
You have to trust the president to push the red button if it comes down to it right?
Truman pushed the button....that simple act is probably number 1 all time balls of steel and he has to be in the top 3 presidents of all time for that one.
I am still bitter over the McCain comments but let me just say I will have the DVR ready for Thursday.Comment
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