NBA history, the team that wins game 3 wins the series 84% of the time

[eidolon]

NBA history, the team that wins game 3, wins the series 84% of the time, when going up 2-1.
So why is Golden State a small favorite over the Cavs to win the series?

[Pauulzcappin]

Cavs are shorthanded and will be gassed tomorrow, Warriors will regain homecourt and win the series

[JameisBrady]

Because the warriors were huge pre-series favorites and have HCA. Literally no other reasons.

[The fiddler]

Anybody that doesn't jump on the Cavs plus money for the series right now is a blooming idiot. Cavs will win in 5. Book it. GS...this aint the marshmallow conference you're dealing with. Cavs obliterated the marshmallow conference the entire second half of the season. Oh yeah...and LeBron plays for Cleveland.

[TheLangster]

because cavs only have one nba player on their team

[Seto]

That's nonsensical. So by the same logic, teams that win game 1 win the series like 76% of the time or something. So you're saying if, say, the Pelicans had won game 1 against Golden State this would have meant they should have been favoured to win the series at that point?

Every series is different.

[lakerboy]

Because the warriors were huge pre-series favorites and have HCA. Literally no other reasons.

Nope.

[kosmos4]

NBA history, the team that wins game 3, wins the series 84% of the time, when going up 2-1.
So why is Golden State a small favorite over the Cavs to win the series?

Ask the grizzlies

[bryant81]

That's nonsensical. So by the same logic, teams that win game 1 win the series like 76% of the time or something. So you're saying if, say, the Pelicans had won game 1 against Golden State this would have meant they should have been favoured to win the series at that point?

Every series is different.

Well said.

And to add to that, you must also look at WHICH team was up 2-1. For example, if the higher seed (or the team with HCA coming into the series) is up 2-1, then they are more likely to win the series since even if they lose game 4, they still have HCA with a pivotal game 5 at home (and possibly game 7). Whereas if the lower seed is up 2-1, then losing game 4 means they have lost HCA and a pivotal game 5 is on the road (only 1 home game left). Two very different scenarios.

I would like to know, what are the percentages that the team who won game 3 wins the series based on:

1. Higher seed up 2-1

2. Lower seed up 2-1

That would give us a more accurate picture.

[Seto]

Well said.

And to add to that, you must also look at WHICH team was up 2-1. For example, if the higher seed (or the team with HCA coming into the series) is up 2-1, then they are more likely to win the series since even if they lose game 4, they still have HCA with a pivotal game 5 at home (and possibly game 7). Whereas if the lower seed is up 2-1, then losing game 4 means they have lost HCA and a pivotal game 5 is on the road (only 1 home game left). Two very different scenarios.

I would like to know, what are the percentages that the team who won game 3 wins the series based on:

1. Higher seed up 2-1

2. Lower seed up 2-1

That would give us a more accurate picture.

Only 2 teams that have ever done it are the 2011 Mavs and 2013 Heat. One had HCA and the other didn't.

Not sure how many of the 13 teams that did hold the 2-1 advantage had HCA though. Pretty sure it's 87% and not 84 come to think of it, it was 11/11 teams before the 2011 Finals and 2/4 since.

[bryant81]

Only 2 teams that have ever done it are the 2011 Mavs and 2013 Heat. One had HCA and the other didn't.

Not sure how many of the 13 teams that did hold the 2-1 advantage had HCA though. Pretty sure it's 87% and not 84 come to think of it, it was 11/11 teams before the 2011 Finals and 2/4 since.

Interesting. Hard to compare if we're only looking at Finals since the format was 2-3-2 until last season.

[2Shirts]

So your saying the Warriors have no nba players, or they're just a bad team. One would think if what you say holds water GS would be one game away from sweeping.

because cavs only have one nba player on their team

[jjgold]

Cavs are shorthanded and will be gassed tomorrow, Warriors will regain homecourt and win the series

That is what most think

I would of lost almost everything chasing gsw and would do it again tomorrow

[Seaweed]

[jizay]

That's nonsensical. So by the same logic, teams that win game 1 win the series like 76% of the time or something. So you're saying if, say, the Pelicans had won game 1 against Golden State this would have meant they should have been favoured to win the series at that point?

Every series is different.

Winning game 3 is updating information. If your prior on GS winning the series before game 3 wasn't as high as 84%, it's reasonable to say this new info makes Cavs the favorite. Thinking of it a different way, GS is a fave to win at least 3 out of the next 4. Do you think the lines are gonna be -300 GS each game? Seems high.

[Seto]

Winning game 3 is updating information. If your prior on GS winning the series before game 3 wasn't as high as 84%, it's reasonable to say this new info makes Cavs the favorite. Thinking of it a different way, GS is a fave to win at least 3 out of the next 4. Do you think the lines are gonna be -300 GS each game? Seems high.

The first part of your post makes no sense.

Yeah, it updates the line before game 3, no shit. The line before game 3 was -230/+210. After game 3 it was -120/+100. Is that not an update? One game where they were 2 point faves is not gonna change the line more than that.

Did you not see the game 2 line? GS will obviously be above -300 in both games 5 and 7. They will be a short fave in game 6 if down 3-2 and a short dog if up 3-2 most likely. I'm too lazy to do the math but I figure that makes the fact that they're a fave for the series logical. LT Profits check in, I know you have a model for this kind of thing.

[Menses]

NBA history, the team that wins game 3, wins the series 84% of the time, when going up 2-1.
So why is Golden State a small favorite over the Cavs to win the series?

The question I have is how much are they favored over Joey Crawford?

[jizay]

I'm too lazy to do the math

We agree on something.

[The fiddler]

Teams that lead 3-1 in NBA finals are 32-0. Warrior backers are in deep shit if Cavs hold serve in game 4.

[vasilli07]

I think Warriors will play better tomorrow. I hope Cavs is prepared to deal with David Lee.

[astrobloke]

I love the fact everyone is still dissing the cav's even though they are the better team, and up 2-1.

Seems that my cav bets, are safe and secure.

[new era]

Means nothing considering they were using the dumb 2-3-2 format.

[QuangX]

That is what most think

I would of lost almost everything chasing gsw and would do it again tomorrow

this is a brilliant statement. let us chase to our death today JJ