Villanova, Michigan St. upset their way to Final Four
Villanova, Michigan St. upset their way to Final Four
Louisville and Pittsburgh didn't make it through the weekend as the No. 1 seeds from the Big East were ousted by Michigan State and Villanova, sending the Spartans and Wildacats to the Final Four.
The 2009 NCAA men’s basketball Tournament produced the most chalk-ridden Sweet 16 of all time. It didn’t last.
Sure, the favorites went 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS through the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds. But that’s enough damage by the underdogs to leave us with just two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four: the North Carolina Tar Heels (32-4 SU, 15-19 ATS, No. 3 Pomeroy) and the Connecticut Huskies (31-4 SU, 15-14 ATS, No. 1 Pomeroy). They’ll be joined by two relative upstarts: the No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (30-6 SU, 20-12-1 ATS, No. 9 Pomeroy) and the No. 3 Villanova Wildcats (30-7 SU, 19-14 ATS, No. 12 Pomeroy). As a group, these four teams are 15-1 ATS at the Tournament.
Villanova is the only team to drop the cash thus far, and only by a bucket in an 80-67 first-round victory over the American U. Eagles (+15). Since then, the Wildcats have been knocking down bigger-name opponents, including the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (-2½) in the Sweet 16 round and the No. 1 Pittsburgh Panthers (-2) in the Elite Eight. The victory over Duke wasn’t all that shocking, as the public jumped all over those betting odds and piled up roughly 70 percent on Villanova’s side against the spread. Then they kept riding ‘Nova against Pitt on Saturday until some late money came in on the Panthers – erroneously.
The Spartans took care of the other No. 1 in the Tournament: the top overall seed from Louisville. The Cardinals (-6½) were huge public favorites in this Elite Eight matchup, but MSU dictated the pace, solved Rick Pitino’s halfcourt-trapping zone defense, and came away with a convincing 64-52 victory. This is after MSU turfed the defending champions from Kansas (+1) in the Sweet 16, coming back from an early 13-point deficit to dump the Jayhawks 67-62.
These are two outstanding basketball programs that deserve to be at Detroit’s Ford Field for this weekend’s Final Four. But they’re both underdogs in the next round, and you won’t find much of an argument from the peanut gallery. The Tar Heels (-8 versus Villanova on Saturday) have run roughshod over all four of their opponents at the Big Dance. Even top-tier clubs like Gonzaga (+7½) and Oklahoma (+7) were swatted away like mosquitoes during the last two rounds. Credit an improved defensive effort on the perimeter, where the Bulldogs were held to 7-of-23 and the Sooners came up dry at 2-of-19.
And while it hasn’t been a bed of roses off the court for Jim Calhoun and the Huskies, they’re still on their way to Detroit at 4-0 SU and ATS. However, their Elite Eight matchup against a very good Missouri Tigers (+6) squad was a close one until UConn pulled away late and sealed a payday with 10 straight free throws in the last 1:02. Hasheem Thabeet came away from that game with a bloody hand; he expects to be fine for Saturday pending a cursory check-up. Facing a Spartans team with better overall credentials than Villanova, UConn opened as a smaller 4-point chalk.
Bettors will be looking closely at Connecticut’s Sweet 16 contest as part of their analysis. That game was against another Big Ten team, the Purdue Boilermakers (+7). But the feisty Boilers are more reminiscent of Missouri; they even gave UConn the same kind of fits, coming back from down double digits while the Huskies went cold. In this case, Purdue wasn’t able to grab the cash in a 72-60 defeat. Michigan State has 6-foot-10 Goran Suton planted in the paint waiting to deal with Thabeet – two of the best rebounders in college going at it.
If you’ve been playing the totals during the past two rounds, it’s been a saw-off. The Sweet 16 games were split 4-4 between the Over and Under, and the Elite Eight was squared at 2-2. The Over is 9-7 at the Tournament for the remaining four teams.
Louisville and Pittsburgh didn't make it through the weekend as the No. 1 seeds from the Big East were ousted by Michigan State and Villanova, sending the Spartans and Wildacats to the Final Four.
The 2009 NCAA men’s basketball Tournament produced the most chalk-ridden Sweet 16 of all time. It didn’t last.
Sure, the favorites went 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS through the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds. But that’s enough damage by the underdogs to leave us with just two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four: the North Carolina Tar Heels (32-4 SU, 15-19 ATS, No. 3 Pomeroy) and the Connecticut Huskies (31-4 SU, 15-14 ATS, No. 1 Pomeroy). They’ll be joined by two relative upstarts: the No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (30-6 SU, 20-12-1 ATS, No. 9 Pomeroy) and the No. 3 Villanova Wildcats (30-7 SU, 19-14 ATS, No. 12 Pomeroy). As a group, these four teams are 15-1 ATS at the Tournament.
Villanova is the only team to drop the cash thus far, and only by a bucket in an 80-67 first-round victory over the American U. Eagles (+15). Since then, the Wildcats have been knocking down bigger-name opponents, including the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (-2½) in the Sweet 16 round and the No. 1 Pittsburgh Panthers (-2) in the Elite Eight. The victory over Duke wasn’t all that shocking, as the public jumped all over those betting odds and piled up roughly 70 percent on Villanova’s side against the spread. Then they kept riding ‘Nova against Pitt on Saturday until some late money came in on the Panthers – erroneously.
The Spartans took care of the other No. 1 in the Tournament: the top overall seed from Louisville. The Cardinals (-6½) were huge public favorites in this Elite Eight matchup, but MSU dictated the pace, solved Rick Pitino’s halfcourt-trapping zone defense, and came away with a convincing 64-52 victory. This is after MSU turfed the defending champions from Kansas (+1) in the Sweet 16, coming back from an early 13-point deficit to dump the Jayhawks 67-62.
These are two outstanding basketball programs that deserve to be at Detroit’s Ford Field for this weekend’s Final Four. But they’re both underdogs in the next round, and you won’t find much of an argument from the peanut gallery. The Tar Heels (-8 versus Villanova on Saturday) have run roughshod over all four of their opponents at the Big Dance. Even top-tier clubs like Gonzaga (+7½) and Oklahoma (+7) were swatted away like mosquitoes during the last two rounds. Credit an improved defensive effort on the perimeter, where the Bulldogs were held to 7-of-23 and the Sooners came up dry at 2-of-19.
And while it hasn’t been a bed of roses off the court for Jim Calhoun and the Huskies, they’re still on their way to Detroit at 4-0 SU and ATS. However, their Elite Eight matchup against a very good Missouri Tigers (+6) squad was a close one until UConn pulled away late and sealed a payday with 10 straight free throws in the last 1:02. Hasheem Thabeet came away from that game with a bloody hand; he expects to be fine for Saturday pending a cursory check-up. Facing a Spartans team with better overall credentials than Villanova, UConn opened as a smaller 4-point chalk.
Bettors will be looking closely at Connecticut’s Sweet 16 contest as part of their analysis. That game was against another Big Ten team, the Purdue Boilermakers (+7). But the feisty Boilers are more reminiscent of Missouri; they even gave UConn the same kind of fits, coming back from down double digits while the Huskies went cold. In this case, Purdue wasn’t able to grab the cash in a 72-60 defeat. Michigan State has 6-foot-10 Goran Suton planted in the paint waiting to deal with Thabeet – two of the best rebounders in college going at it.
If you’ve been playing the totals during the past two rounds, it’s been a saw-off. The Sweet 16 games were split 4-4 between the Over and Under, and the Elite Eight was squared at 2-2. The Over is 9-7 at the Tournament for the remaining four teams.