Best NFL Handicapper

**DirtyBird1500** · 11-15-14, 03:56 PM

Wow kind of surprised by all those picks on entry 1 except SD. Guess thats why I suck and he doesn't.

**emtyefd** · 11-15-14, 04:00 PM

det on both lanes, he is 5-1 YTD doing that. Is DET defense shutting down Zona´s offense? Could be....

**23Edler_Salo6** · 11-15-14, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by emtyefd

det on both lanes, he is 5-1 YTD doing that. Is DET defense shutting down Zona´s offense? Could be....

I think it's 6-1 now with two of them from last week?

**emtyefd** · 11-15-14, 05:37 PM

being that he´s on NE on this 2nd lane i feel better with my IND pick. Have to disagree with the SEA pick as I think KC will pull that win, KC always a tough place to play and they will try to prove the Seahawks that Arrowhead is louder...

**jmathes** · 11-15-14, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by 23Edler_Salo6

DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1	SEA +1.5	WAS -7.5	NYG +3.5	SD -10	DET +2.5
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2	ATL +2	DEN -9.5	DET +2.5	NE +3	TEN +6

Thanks for posting. Keep in mind he picked Detroit twice. He is 6-1 when he does that with every win being a blowout. Good luck this week!

**Justin121** · 11-15-14, 10:57 PM

I took the top 12 ranked people in the contest and looked for consensus picks. The below picks were very popular, with CLE -3 being the most popular pick. What was rather unsettling to me was the amount of people picking PHI as I have bets on GB....

I've used these to make some parlays as well as a few teasers. I have a tiny bankroll so looking for something better than putting $10 on David's picks for now

I like Browns but the new QB is an unknown. It's weird logic but since these guys are so good, I like looking at the couple who had BUF since that already lost. Maybe that was their only failure and they'll be 4-1?

Pick Number of top 12 players who made pick

CLE - 3		8
NE +2.5		5
DET +2.5		5
MIN +3		4
PHI +6		4
ATL +2		4

SD -10		3
TB +7.5		3
DEN -9.5		2
NYG +3.5		2
SEA +1.5		2

Raw data

CH BALLERS .	CLE -3	CHI -3	STL +9.5	OAK +10	IND -3
BRIEFCASE 2 .	BUF	CLE -3	ATL +2	CIN +7	TB +7.5
GENERAL TSO .	HOU +3	KC -1.5	SF -3.5	NE +2.5	TEN +6
IMAWHALE SPORTS	CLE -3	MIN +3	PHI +6	TB +7.5	DET +2.5
DEGENCHAT .	BUF	CLE -3	ATL +2	SD -10	NE +2.5
STAG CAPITAL .	CLE -3	MIN +3	PHI +6	ATL +2	DET +2.5
PHILDEEZ .	GB -6	SEA +1.5	DET +2.5	NE +2.5	PIT -6
RESTORE THE ROAR	CLE -3	PHI +6	KC -1.5	DEN -9.5	NE +2.5
RONIN .	CHI -3	DEN -9.5	NYG +3.5	SD -10	NE +2.5
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE 1	SEA +1.5	WAS -7.5	NYG +3.5	SD -10	DET +2.5
ALCATRAZ HOLDINGS	CLE -3	MIN +3	NO -7	TB +7.5	ARI +2.5
CLEAR CAPITAL .	CLE -3	MIN +3	PHI +6	ATL +2	DET +2.5

**Candyride** · 11-16-14, 08:49 AM

Hey guys,

This is DFL, just came across this thread for the first time. (I have this login from a few years back asking questions about finding a proxy for the contest or something)

First things first, I love doing this as a hobby but that's all it is; frankly my picks are not "professional quality" given the level of effort I am putting into them. I've had a phenomenal run over 3.5 years of contest playing and have hit near 60% over time, but given what I know about my own methodology, 52-53% is probably the best we can expect from my top picks. You can probably bump this up by a point or two vs stale contest lines of course. Chalk the rest of it up to random fluctuation.

How to project how anyone (me, you, whoever) will do handicapping NFL games going forward? I'd suggest this: consider that most people betting randomly will be right around 50%, the really top groups can expect maybe 56% on their top plays, most "sharps" who know a little about stats are somewhere in between (but closer to 50% without factoring in line shopping) and take your best guess about where you fall in that spectrum. Much more reliable IMO than looking at recent (even last few years) record, as records can fluctuate for no reason.

As far as how I handicap games, I think I've developed a pretty good system for getting as much info as I can out of boxscores, and then I adjust these numbers some based on a team's preseason expectations, based on what I've seen in the games I watch and injuries. But the reality is that there are other groups going to the additional steps of analyzing play-by-play data and watching every single play of every game and taking notes. Some of them are really good at what they do and their opinions get baked into the lines, and it isn't realistic to expect my methods to identify value that these other groups don't see. That's why I say 53% as the high end for what I actually think I could hit vs widely available lines over the long run.

Of course, anything can happen over a sample of games, and if you look at a contest with 1000+ handicappers, there's always going to be some people catching a couple standard deviations of good luck and right now, that's me.

If that doesn't scare you off betting my picks enough, how about this: although it's been going well, I do remain 4 games out of first place. If my goal is to maximize my (very low) chances of winning the contest it becomes worth picking games I don't actually like, if I think the leaders will take the other side, just because I need variance to catch up.

**Justin121** · 11-16-14, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by Candyride

Hey guys,

This is DFL, just came across this thread for the first time. (I have this login from a few years back asking questions about finding a proxy for the contest or something)

First things first, I love doing this as a hobby but that's all it is; frankly my picks are not "professional quality" given the level of effort I am putting into them. I've had a phenomenal run over 3.5 years of contest playing and have hit near 60% over time, but given what I know about my own methodology, 52-53% is probably the best we can expect from my top picks. You can probably bump this up by a point or two vs stale contest lines of course. Chalk the rest of it up to random fluctuation.

How to project how anyone (me, you, whoever) will do handicapping NFL games going forward? I'd suggest this: consider that most people betting randomly will be right around 50%, the really top groups can expect maybe 56% on their top plays, most "sharps" who know a little about stats are somewhere in between (but closer to 50% without factoring in line shopping) and take your best guess about where you fall in that spectrum. Much more reliable IMO than looking at recent (even last few years) record, as records can fluctuate for no reason.

As far as how I handicap games, I think I've developed a pretty good system for getting as much info as I can out of boxscores, and then I adjust these numbers some based on a team's preseason expectations, based on what I've seen in the games I watch and injuries. But the reality is that there are other groups going to the additional steps of analyzing play-by-play data and watching every single play of every game and taking notes. Some of them are really good at what they do and their opinions get baked into the lines, and it isn't realistic to expect my methods to identify value that these other groups don't see. That's why I say 53% as the high end for what I actually think I could hit vs widely available lines over the long run.

Of course, anything can happen over a sample of games, and if you look at a contest with 1000+ handicappers, there's always going to be some people catching a couple standard deviations of good luck and right now, that's me.

If that doesn't scare you off betting my picks enough, how about this: although it's been going well, I do remain 4 games out of first place. If my goal is to maximize my (very low) chances of winning the contest it becomes worth picking games I don't actually like, if I think the leaders will take the other side, just because I need variance to catch up.

First off, thanks for being so awesome. Taking time to post here to look out for people you don't know is a pretty awesome thing.

Second, I don't expect this but gotta try

Any chance you wanna share any of the actual scores predicted by your model or any of the safer bets you may not have went with this week? TIA

**House** · 11-16-14, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by Candyride

Hey guys,

This is DFL, just came across this thread for the first time. (I have this login from a few years back asking questions about finding a proxy for the contest or something)

First things first, I love doing this as a hobby but that's all it is; frankly my picks are not "professional quality" given the level of effort I am putting into them. I've had a phenomenal run over 3.5 years of contest playing and have hit near 60% over time, but given what I know about my own methodology, 52-53% is probably the best we can expect from my top picks. You can probably bump this up by a point or two vs stale contest lines of course. Chalk the rest of it up to random fluctuation.

How to project how anyone (me, you, whoever) will do handicapping NFL games going forward? I'd suggest this: consider that most people betting randomly will be right around 50%, the really top groups can expect maybe 56% on their top plays, most "sharps" who know a little about stats are somewhere in between (but closer to 50% without factoring in line shopping) and take your best guess about where you fall in that spectrum. Much more reliable IMO than looking at recent (even last few years) record, as records can fluctuate for no reason.

As far as how I handicap games, I think I've developed a pretty good system for getting as much info as I can out of boxscores, and then I adjust these numbers some based on a team's preseason expectations, based on what I've seen in the games I watch and injuries. But the reality is that there are other groups going to the additional steps of analyzing play-by-play data and watching every single play of every game and taking notes. Some of them are really good at what they do and their opinions get baked into the lines, and it isn't realistic to expect my methods to identify value that these other groups don't see. That's why I say 53% as the high end for what I actually think I could hit vs widely available lines over the long run.

Of course, anything can happen over a sample of games, and if you look at a contest with 1000+ handicappers, there's always going to be some people catching a couple standard deviations of good luck and right now, that's me.

If that doesn't scare you off betting my picks enough, how about this: although it's been going well, I do remain 4 games out of first place. If my goal is to maximize my (very low) chances of winning the contest it becomes worth picking games I don't actually like, if I think the leaders will take the other side, just because I need variance to catch up.

Hey GUY , is there a reason for this to be in this thread other than you just wanting some fuc KING attention ? .... Go start a thread .... GL

FOOT IN MOUTH DISORDER ....

proceed

**Tobit** · 11-16-14, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by House

Hey GUY , is there a reason for this to be in this thread other than you just wanting some fuc KING attention ? .... Go start a thread .... GL

You do realize the GUY is claiming to be David Frohardt Lane? So, if in fact he is, there seems to PLENTY of reason for him posting in this thread.

**House** · 11-16-14, 10:08 AM

come on ....lol I thought about that but we've had guys like this say they were someone else on SBR before .... if Im outa line hey , sorry for sticking my foot in my mouth .... I rolled with a couple of your picks lol..... now can we see some ID please

Will the Real David Frohardt Lane please stand up

**success27** · 11-16-14, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by House

come on ....lol I thought about that but we've had guys like this say they were someone else on SBR before .... if Im outa line hey , sorry for sticking my foot in my mouth .... I rolled with a couple of your picks lol..... now can we see some ID please

Will the Real David Frohardt Lane please stand up

I was skeptical at first too.

However he tweeted about this thread .

**pavyracer** · 11-16-14, 10:19 AM

Almost all lines moved against him. Books are finally figuring it out how to beat him.

**House** · 11-16-14, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by success27

I was skeptical at first too.

However he tweeted about this thread .

Oh shit lol My bad Dave lol .... just looking out for ya man

........

**mitch51** · 11-16-14, 10:21 AM

That is DFL, for sure. I have read several things written by him, and this is a recurring theme. He is just telling people what he thinks, and he's exactly right on all counts.

House, if you would have read anything previously in his you-know-what account or elsewhere, you would know it's really him. He gave this warning, almost word for word a few weeks ago. He knows exactly how he handicaps and the probable result of this handicapping. He knows he's a longshot to a point and he will have to go against the grain. It'll be a fun ride from here on out.

**Ra77er** · 11-16-14, 10:22 AM

Dave are these picks ML or against the spread TIA

**House** · 11-16-14, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Almost all lines moved against him. Books are finally figuring it out how to beat him.

Thats about the dumbest shit I've read this morning, next to me roasting Dave not knowing it was him

**House** · 11-16-14, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Ra77er

Dave are these picks ML or against the spread TIA

spread

**Tobit** · 11-16-14, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by House

Oh shit lol My bad Dave lol .... just looking out for ya man

........

**House** · 11-16-14, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by mitch51

That is DFL, for sure. I have read several things written by him, and this is a recurring theme. He is just telling people what he thinks, and he's exactly right on all counts.

House, if you would have read anything previously in his you-know-what account or elsewhere, you would know it's really him. He gave this warning, almost word for word a few weeks ago. He knows exactly how he handicaps and the probable result of this handicapping. He knows he's a longshot to a point and he will have to go against the grain. It'll be a fun ride from here on out.

I got that bro, thank you ..... Im still standing in the corner ...I put myself on a timeout

**mitch51** · 11-16-14, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by House

I got that bro, thank you ..... Im still standing in the corner ...I put myself on a timeout

Ain't your fault, people have done crap like this before. Just not this time.

The bigger problem is how to figure out his picks if he is gonna do an occasional hail mary. Because he is gonna start doing them to try to work his way back up.

**matt711** · 11-16-14, 10:47 AM

Mitch how have you been? Between your basball thread and this thread,we are getting some very good plays....thanks again for hitting around 60% this year in totals, u have a great system too.....

**mitch51** · 11-16-14, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by matt711

Mitch how have you been? Between your basball thread and this thread,we are getting some very good plays....thanks again for hitting around 60% this year in totals, u have a great system too.....

Hi, Matt 711! We were gonna do a hockey thread and found out that the dogs (or anything else) was not the same. We have been betting this DFLs picks to a point, along with consensus picks in the Hilton contest, that has been working out great. But nothing works as well as totals and dogs in baseball. All our picks will be in one thread, both UNDER UMPIRES, and the dogs. The money is gonna be rolling in beginning the first of April. We hope you are there to offer your opinions and cash a lot of tickets, it's gonna be a great year in MLB.
We are doing great Ali & I and trying to keep warm in this desert of 40* this morning.

**House** · 11-16-14, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by mitch51

Hi, Matt 711! We were gonna do a hockey thread and found out that the dogs (or anything else) was not the same. We have been betting this DFLs picks to a point, along with consensus picks in the Hilton contest, that has been working out great. But nothing works as well as totals and dogs in baseball. All our picks will be in one thread, both UNDER UMPIRES, and the dogs. The money is gonna be rolling in beginning the first of April. We hope you are there to offer your opinions and cash a lot of tickets, it's gonna be a great year in MLB.

Im gonna have to remember that

**mitch51** · 11-16-14, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by House

Im gonna have to remember that

Yes, we were 50% on the dogs and very profitable.

**jmathes** · 11-16-14, 12:09 PM

DFL, I have a question for you. The teams you pick for both entries are 6-1. How are you coming up with these picks? Of those, they are mostly blowouts so whichever data or handicapping method you are using is obviously working very well.

**TwoWays** · 11-16-14, 12:13 PM

Does he post totals? Is he friendly?

**camelbreath$** · 11-16-14, 12:16 PM

David actually posting in a thread about people following his picks might be the coolest thing I've ever seen on SBR.

**mitch51** · 11-16-14, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by House

Im gonna have to remember that

You're invited, it's gonna be a party. We have bet these dogs and unders for the last three years. They average being up well over 30 units at end of year. We hope you show up, House. These threads got about 205,000 hits. People seemed to really like betting these unders and dogs. But, hey! This is a NFL thread here so I'm gonna shut up. Sorry.

**ATSFTW** · 11-16-14, 04:56 PM

Gonna be a rough week it seems

**DirtyBird1500** · 11-16-14, 05:26 PM

He did warn ya

**El Nino** · 11-16-14, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by Ra77er

Dave are these picks ML or against the spread TIA

**mitch51** · 11-16-14, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by DirtyBird1500

He did warn ya

He couldn't have possibly been more clear. Wow. You really have to admire this guy.

**23Edler_Salo6** · 11-16-14, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by Candyride

Hey guys,

This is DFL, just came across this thread for the first time. (I have this login from a few years back asking questions about finding a proxy for the contest or something)

First things first, I love doing this as a hobby but that's all it is; frankly my picks are not "professional quality" given the level of effort I am putting into them. I've had a phenomenal run over 3.5 years of contest playing and have hit near 60% over time, but given what I know about my own methodology, 52-53% is probably the best we can expect from my top picks. You can probably bump this up by a point or two vs stale contest lines of course. Chalk the rest of it up to random fluctuation.

How to project how anyone (me, you, whoever) will do handicapping NFL games going forward? I'd suggest this: consider that most people betting randomly will be right around 50%, the really top groups can expect maybe 56% on their top plays, most "sharps" who know a little about stats are somewhere in between (but closer to 50% without factoring in line shopping) and take your best guess about where you fall in that spectrum. Much more reliable IMO than looking at recent (even last few years) record, as records can fluctuate for no reason.

As far as how I handicap games, I think I've developed a pretty good system for getting as much info as I can out of boxscores, and then I adjust these numbers some based on a team's preseason expectations, based on what I've seen in the games I watch and injuries. But the reality is that there are other groups going to the additional steps of analyzing play-by-play data and watching every single play of every game and taking notes. Some of them are really good at what they do and their opinions get baked into the lines, and it isn't realistic to expect my methods to identify value that these other groups don't see. That's why I say 53% as the high end for what I actually think I could hit vs widely available lines over the long run.

Of course, anything can happen over a sample of games, and if you look at a contest with 1000+ handicappers, there's always going to be some people catching a couple standard deviations of good luck and right now, that's me.

If that doesn't scare you off betting my picks enough, how about this: although it's been going well, I do remain 4 games out of first place. If my goal is to maximize my (very low) chances of winning the contest it becomes worth picking games I don't actually like, if I think the leaders will take the other side, just because I need variance to catch up.

Good luck the rest of the way.

How long do you usually spend on your picks each week for the contest?

**Venom OG** · 11-16-14, 07:15 PM