Best NFL Handicapper

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  • Mako-SBR
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-15-13
    • 492

    #561
    Catch

    That

    Falling

    Knife.

    Ouch....
    Comment
    • RainMaker3392
      SBR Rookie
      • 11-11-14
      • 18

      #562
      Gotta sell my organs due to the 0-5 day... good work DFL
      Comment
      • 23Edler_Salo6
        SBR High Roller
        • 02-08-12
        • 200

        #563
        Originally posted by 23Edler_Salo6
        DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 SEA +1.5 WAS -7.5 NYG +3.5 SD -10 DET +2.5
        DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 ATL +2 DEN -9.5 DET +2.5 NE +3 TEN +6
        Lane 1 finishes 0-5
        Lane 2 is 1-2 pending NE, TEN
        Comment
        • DirtyBird1500
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-17-11
          • 723

          #564
          Anybody blaming him for losing money today has nobody to blame but themselves. He basically came in here before the games and straight up told you not to tail him.
          Comment
          • warbux
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 11-17-13
            • 896

            #565
            He did it on purpose so you would all stop tailing him
            Comment
            • TwoWays
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-24-10
              • 13145

              #566
              He is awesome.
              Comment
              • briedward
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 03-24-12
                • 982

                #567
                I think DFL did post - most people on SBR can't write clearly beyond a few sentences. It is an odd coincidence that his picks did horribly on the day he posted. What he said matches his Twitter.
                Comment
                • pavyracer
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 04-12-07
                  • 82745

                  #568
                  Originally posted by House
                  Thats about the dumbest shit I've read this morning, next to me roasting Dave not knowing it was him
                  Well who is the dumbass now? You can't win if you can't beat the closing line!
                  Comment
                  • Candyride
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 08-13-11
                    • 4

                    #569
                    Wow, looks like I posted that warning just in time!

                    Picks I use in both entries: usually it's if I have a strong handicapping opinion on a game and the line is stale as well. But again, can I claim that "strong handicapping opinion" from me will cash enough to break even? Maybe not, especially not vs widely available and current lines.

                    Anyways, some day I'll tell all my grandkids about the time I went on a 81-31-3 run in the SuperContest and there was a crazy forum thread. Until then, most likely, it's back to reality ...

                    (Final warning: I'm in even more dire straits now with respect to probability of winning the contest this year ... even more incentive to make some contrarian weird picks)

                    Good luck everyone, this was a fun thread to stumble into
                    Comment
                    • mitch51
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-15-12
                      • 4587

                      #570
                      Originally posted by Candyride
                      Wow, looks like I posted that warning just in time!

                      Picks I use in both entries: usually it's if I have a strong handicapping opinion on a game and the line is stale as well. But again, can I claim that "strong handicapping opinion" from me will cash enough to break even? Maybe not, especially not vs widely available and current lines.

                      Anyways, some day I'll tell all my grandkids about the time I went on a 81-31-3 run in the SuperContest and there was a crazy forum thread. Until then, most likely, it's back to reality ...

                      (Final warning: I'm in even more dire straits now with respect to probability of winning the contest this year ... even more incentive to make some contrarian weird picks)

                      Good luck everyone, this was a fun thread to stumble into
                      Hey, Candyride! It was funner for us! Thanks for the warnings you posted. I doubt if anyone paid attention to the point of laying off your picks, but you did your best.

                      You're right, this is one crazy thread, for sure. Don't feel too bad, you weren't the first person who got lit up in here. I doubt you'll be the last. This thread has a life of its own.

                      But, thanks to you this has been one of the most profitable threads ever. I think it'll continue to be so, although it may go in a little different direction after your warning number two. Good luck in the contest going forward, and thanks for the picks and the lessons in handicapping. Especially the lessons regarding paid cappers claiming to hit above 60% consistently. There aren't any.
                      Comment
                      • I rike 2 bet
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 12-28-11
                        • 56

                        #571
                        Originally posted by Justin121
                        I took the top 12 ranked people in the contest and looked for consensus picks. The below picks were very popular, with CLE -3 being the most popular pick. What was rather unsettling to me was the amount of people picking PHI as I have bets on GB....

                        I've used these to make some parlays as well as a few teasers. I have a tiny bankroll so looking for something better than putting $10 on David's picks for now

                        I like Browns but the new QB is an unknown. It's weird logic but since these guys are so good, I like looking at the couple who had BUF since that already lost. Maybe that was their only failure and they'll be 4-1?

                        Pick Number of top 12 players who made pick
                        CLE - 3 8
                        NE +2.5 5
                        DET +2.5 5
                        MIN +3 4
                        PHI +6 4
                        ATL +2 4
                        SD -10 3
                        TB +7.5 3
                        DEN -9.5 2
                        NYG +3.5 2
                        SEA +1.5 2
                        Raw data

                        CH BALLERS . CLE -3 CHI -3 STL +9.5 OAK +10 IND -3
                        BRIEFCASE 2 . BUF CLE -3 ATL +2 CIN +7 TB +7.5
                        GENERAL TSO . HOU +3 KC -1.5 SF -3.5 NE +2.5 TEN +6
                        IMAWHALE SPORTS CLE -3 MIN +3 PHI +6 TB +7.5 DET +2.5
                        DEGENCHAT . BUF CLE -3 ATL +2 SD -10 NE +2.5
                        STAG CAPITAL . CLE -3 MIN +3 PHI +6 ATL +2 DET +2.5
                        PHILDEEZ . GB -6 SEA +1.5 DET +2.5 NE +2.5 PIT -6
                        RESTORE THE ROAR CLE -3 PHI +6 KC -1.5 DEN -9.5 NE +2.5
                        RONIN . CHI -3 DEN -9.5 NYG +3.5 SD -10 NE +2.5
                        DAVIDFROHARDT LANE 1 SEA +1.5 WAS -7.5 NYG +3.5 SD -10 DET +2.5
                        ALCATRAZ HOLDINGS CLE -3 MIN +3 NO -7 TB +7.5 ARI +2.5
                        CLEAR CAPITAL . CLE -3 MIN +3 PHI +6 ATL +2 DET +2.5
                        This seems crazy to me. I could understand DFL going 0-5/1-4 but all the picks of the top 12 going 1-1-9?! That's some crazy bad luck if they are truly independent entries and cappers.

                        I made a few different teasers using combos of the above thinking they would go 4-1 or even 3-2 and I would be up. I got buried!
                        Comment
                        • briedward
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 03-24-12
                          • 982

                          #572
                          Amazing that DFL posted again. Again he reiterated past themes brought up on his Twitter.
                          Comment
                          • House
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-04-11
                            • 7088

                            #573
                            Originally posted by pavyracer
                            Well who is the dumbass now? You can't win if you can't beat the closing line!
                            You're still the dumbass for thinking they adjust the lines because of Dave
                            Comment
                            • swngus44
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-26-10
                              • 1824

                              #574
                              Dave's picks out yet guys? Thanks.
                              Comment
                              • boomer62
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-10-11
                                • 1500

                                #575
                                Originally posted by swngus44
                                Dave's picks out yet guys? Thanks.
                                Go post your service plays...and troll for picks there.....RETART
                                Comment
                                • Magnolia Slim
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 03-22-14
                                  • 578

                                  #576
                                  Originally posted by briedward
                                  I think DFL did post - most people on SBR can't write clearly beyond a few sentences. It is an odd coincidence that his picks did horribly on the day he posted. What he said matches his Twitter.
                                  Who is that girl in ur avatar? Dayum she fine..
                                  Comment
                                  • simon2012
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 12-03-11
                                    • 343

                                    #577
                                    DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 TEN MIN NYJ SEA BAL
                                    DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 CLE DET JAX WAS DAL
                                    Comment
                                    • dombrow3
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 09-26-12
                                      • 152

                                      #578
                                      Spreads?
                                      Comment
                                      • NYSportsGuy210
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-07-09
                                        • 11347

                                        #579
                                        Lane 2 looks good to me this week.
                                        Comment
                                        • 23Edler_Salo6
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 02-08-12
                                          • 200

                                          #580
                                          Originally posted by simon2012
                                          DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 TEN +11 MIN +9.5 NYJ +4.5 SEA -6.5 BAL +3.5
                                          DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 CLE +3 DET +7 JAX +14 WAS +9.5 DAL -3.5
                                          contest lines
                                          Comment
                                          • dalogester
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-02-13
                                            • 1088

                                            #581
                                            so... having to pick 5 games in each lane he picks 10 different games? i dont get that logic, considering the fact there isnt 10 playable games on any given week. i guarantee pros would tell you that. i feel like hes given up on this season and is just throwing darts now. maybe im wrong. i do like some of his picks but wont be tailing all 10.

                                            good luck to him and all tailing.
                                            Comment
                                            • Cordoba25
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-22-14
                                              • 315

                                              #582
                                              Daolgester: He has 2 lanes in case one lane initially does better than the other, the top picks would go to that lane. Last year lane 2 got off to a better start than lane 1 so his top picks went to lane 2 and it was that lane that won. This year it's lane 1. SImple as that.


                                              Also, can't believe people on here are still tailing him after his warnings and 0-5 week.
                                              You'd be better off tailing top 10 consensus picks..
                                              Comment
                                              • TwoWays
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 03-24-10
                                                • 13145

                                                #583
                                                I "liked" this guy like a dozen times. He is the genuine letter
                                                Comment
                                                • gloriesam
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 10-10-14
                                                  • 124

                                                  #584
                                                  Originally posted by Candyride
                                                  Wow, looks like I posted that warning just in time!

                                                  Picks I use in both entries: usually it's if I have a strong handicapping opinion on a game and the line is stale as well. But again, can I claim that "strong handicapping opinion" from me will cash enough to break even? Maybe not, especially not vs widely available and current lines.

                                                  Anyways, some day I'll tell all my grandkids about the time I went on a 81-31-3 run in the SuperContest and there was a crazy forum thread. Until then, most likely, it's back to reality ...

                                                  (Final warning: I'm in even more dire straits now with respect to probability of winning the contest this year ... even more incentive to make some contrarian weird picks)

                                                  Good luck everyone, this was a fun thread to stumble into

                                                  Are you ever in Vegas? Even though you had a bad week recently, I have made a fortune tailing your NFL Plays. If you ever come to Vegas, I can take care of the expenses for a weekend. Room at Bellagio, tickets to any shows you want, entrances to any clubs, hottest elite prostitute companion (you can pick any race) who will workship you and be your slave in the bedroom the entire weekend...and these are educated and well mannered professionals who can be great companion in public as well....no one would doubt that you are with a prostitute.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Cordoba25
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 11-22-14
                                                    • 315

                                                    #585
                                                    In regards to your PM Mitch.. yes I'm aware (I can't respond to PM's yet)

                                                    Make good money tailing him 1st half of season (just off lane 1). Jumped off around week 9 to tail top 10 consensus picks (where there is greater than a 30% consensus over unopposed picks) as it's a system that is back tested a little bit and as of now it's been profitable as well.


                                                    BTW; great job on your under umpire threads. I tailed a few plays and made some money. You sir, are the man!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • pavyracer
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 04-12-07
                                                      • 82745

                                                      #586
                                                      He beat most of the closing lines this week. He will do better than last week when almost all lines moved against him.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • TwoWays
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 03-24-10
                                                        • 13145

                                                        #587
                                                        Looks like he will be undefeated! Rock on!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • dombrow3
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 09-26-12
                                                          • 152

                                                          #588
                                                          Tenn didn't hit
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 23Edler_Salo6
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 02-08-12
                                                            • 200

                                                            #589
                                                            Lane 1 is 2-1 pending NYJ, BAL
                                                            Lane 2 finishes 2-3
                                                            Comment
                                                            • POOLSIDE
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 09-06-14
                                                              • 2839

                                                              #590
                                                              It's officially time to start ignoring his plays. He's behind in the contest. He's in a spot where he'd take a team simply because he thinks his competitors will take the other side, even if he thinks it's the wrong side.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 23Edler_Salo6
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 02-08-12
                                                                • 200

                                                                #591
                                                                Originally posted by 23Edler_Salo6
                                                                Lane 1 is 2-1 pending NYJ, BAL
                                                                Lane 2 finishes 2-3
                                                                Lane 1 finishes 3-2
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 23Edler_Salo6
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 02-08-12
                                                                  • 200

                                                                  #592
                                                                  DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 CHI DAL BAL -5.5 NO +4.5 ATL +2.5
                                                                  DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 BAL -5.5 NYG -2.5 CAR +2.5 ATL +2.5 NYJ +6.5
                                                                  Lane 1 is 0-2 so far
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • POOLSIDE
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 09-06-14
                                                                    • 2839

                                                                    #593
                                                                    Originally posted by 23Edler_Salo6
                                                                    DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 CHI DAL BAL -5.5 NO +4.5 ATL +2.5
                                                                    DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 BAL -5.5 NYG -2.5 CAR +2.5 ATL +2.5 NYJ +6.5
                                                                    Lane 1 is 0-2 so far
                                                                    Again, his hands are tied. He's gotta take unpopular games or even the less likely side. He has to score points where the other leaders aren't.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • SteveRyan
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-15-11
                                                                      • 1654

                                                                      #594
                                                                      Lane 2 looking pretty good. Only one I would change is Carolina.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Tboonepickem
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 09-21-13
                                                                        • 1113

                                                                        #595
                                                                        Originally posted by SteveRyan
                                                                        Lane 2 looking pretty good. Only one I would change is Carolina.
                                                                        Agree on the Carolina change. I would have to say ATL too. Cannot see them beating a team with a winning record. Although DFL is known for being a contrarian
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