simple math question for 6 points

[thunderous]

So what would be the odds for SB between Denver/Seattle or NE/Seattle? I am not sure if Seattle would be the favorite specially against Denver and if that's the case I don't know if betting Seattle to win SB makes any sense. I would rather straight bet Seattle in the SB at +130 odds.

[LT Profits]

you think it is that bad for afc? then clearly seattle futures are the choice. i would say both afc teams are favored, but less than 3 pts over seattle.

No they won't, Seattle is favored to win the Super Bowl.

[LT Profits]

Seattle -120 over Denver is only -1, maybe -1.5 spread

[housecloud]

they actually have them up... must meet for action... -125 and -150

[housecloud]

<cite>teams must meet in Super Bowl XLVIII for action</cite>
Sun 1/19		25301 New England Patriots		<input id="editx" name="M1_20" size="4"> +155	<input id="editx" name="L1_20" size="4"> o49 -110
3:00PM		25302 San Francisco 49ers		<input id="editx" name="M2_20" size="4"> -185	<input id="editx" name="L2_20" size="4"> u49 -110
<cite>teams must meet in Super Bowl XLVIII for action</cite>
Sun 1/19		25303 New England Patriots		<input id="editx" name="M1_21" size="4"> +120	<input id="editx" name="L1_21" size="4"> o45½ -120
3:00PM		25304 Seattle Seahawks		<input id="editx" name="M2_21" size="4"> -150	<input id="editx" name="L2_21" size="4"> u45½ -120
<cite>teams must meet in Super Bowl XLVIII for action</cite>
Sun 1/19		25305 Denver Broncos		<input id="editx" name="M1_22" size="4"> -130	<input id="editx" name="L1_22" size="4"> o55½ -120
3:00PM		25306 San Francisco 49ers		<input id="editx" name="M2_22" size="4"> +100	<input id="editx" name="L2_22" size="4"> u55½ -120
<cite>teams must meet in Super Bowl XLVIII for action</cite>
Sun 1/19		25307 Denver Broncos		<input id="editx" name="M1_23" size="4"> -105	<input id="editx" name="L1_23" size="4"> o54 -120
3:00PM		25308 Seattle Seahawks		<input id="editx" name="M2_23" size="4"> -125	<input id="editx" name="L2_23" size="4"> u54 -120

[LT Profits]

<cite>teams must meet in Super Bowl XLVIII for action</cite>
Sun 1/19		25301 New England Patriots		<input id="editx" name="M1_20" size="4"> +155	<input id="editx" name="L1_20" size="4"> o49 -110
3:00PM		25302 San Francisco 49ers		<input id="editx" name="M2_20" size="4"> -185	<input id="editx" name="L2_20" size="4"> u49 -110
<cite>teams must meet in Super Bowl XLVIII for action</cite>
Sun 1/19		25303 New England Patriots		<input id="editx" name="M1_21" size="4"> +120	<input id="editx" name="L1_21" size="4"> o45½ -120
3:00PM		25304 Seattle Seahawks		<input id="editx" name="M2_21" size="4"> -150	<input id="editx" name="L2_21" size="4"> u45½ -120
<cite>teams must meet in Super Bowl XLVIII for action</cite>
Sun 1/19		25305 Denver Broncos		<input id="editx" name="M1_22" size="4"> -130	<input id="editx" name="L1_22" size="4"> o55½ -120
3:00PM		25306 San Francisco 49ers		<input id="editx" name="M2_22" size="4"> +100	<input id="editx" name="L2_22" size="4"> u55½ -120
<cite>teams must meet in Super Bowl XLVIII for action</cite>
Sun 1/19		25307 Denver Broncos		<input id="editx" name="M1_23" size="4"> -105	<input id="editx" name="L1_23" size="4"> o54 -120
3:00PM		25308 Seattle Seahawks		<input id="editx" name="M2_23" size="4"> -125	<input id="editx" name="L2_23" size="4"> u54 -120

Those are 30 cent lines, should be closer to my numbers for your parlay

[RudyRuetigger]

then its official, do what lt said

this is way simpler than anyone had imagined

[thunderous]

Wow! Very surprising...I wouldn't bet Seattle as favorites away from Century Link

[housecloud]

Those are 30 cent lines, should be closer to my numbers for your parlay

true.. now just trying to decide if I should wait or jump on it now...

[housecloud]

seeing -178 reduced Juice option right now.

[LT Profits]

seeing -178 reduced Juice option right now.

Can you bet 2K on reduced?

[housecloud]

Can you bet 2K on reduced?

$500 every 5 - 10 minutes.. until the line refreshes..

[indio]

You're original question is I want to bet Seattle to win it all, how do I get my best price? Very simple to figure. You have 3 options (not including in-play options).

Option 1 is bet Seattle at +182.

Option 2 is bet Seattle over NE +514 and Seattle over Denver at +319. This equals a price of +160 for Seattle to win it all, which is obviously less than +182.

Option 3 is to make a ML parlay on Seattle in the NFC title game and the Super Bowl. Seattle is -190 right now vs SF. That means they would have to be -117 or less to win the Super Bowl to give you a price equal or better than +182 to win it all. Since it's a given that Seattle would never be that short in the Super Bowl no matter who they play, this option only works if you see a huge ML shift coming for the NFC title game, which would have to be dramatic to make this option viable, which just is never going to produce a scenario better than +182.

Take the +182 and option 1 if you like Seattle to win it all.

[LT Profits]

You're original question is I want to bet Seattle to win it all, how do I get my best price? Very simple to figure. You have 3 options (not including in-play options).

Option 1 is bet Seattle at +182.

Option 2 is bet Seattle over NE +514 and Seattle over Denver at +319. This equals a price of +160 for Seattle to win it all, which is obviously less than +182.

Option 3 is to make a ML parlay on Seattle in the NFC title game and the Super Bowl. Seattle is -190 right now vs SF. That means they would have to be -117 or less to win the Super Bowl to give you a price equal or better than +182 to win it all. Since it's a given that Seattle would never be that short in the Super Bowl no matter who they play, this option only works if you see a huge ML shift coming for the NFC title game, which would have to be dramatic to make this option viable, which just is never going to produce a scenario better than +182.

Take the +182 and option 1 if you like Seattle to win it all.

But he can get -178 this week.

[LT Profits]

assuming Seattle -120 over Denver, ML parlay is better up to -185 this week. If line is -186, then the +182 future is better.

[indio]

But he can get -178 this week.

So what? He'd still be better off betting the +182 future. Seattle would need to be less than -124 in Super Bowl to equal +182. And if you figure NE beats Denver 32% of the time, this route is definately -ev from the original +182.

[housecloud]

assuming Seattle -120 over Denver, ML parlay is better up to -185 this week. If line is -186, then the +182 future is better.

Got it. Thanks. Gonna start betting tomorrow..Hopefully can get -180 or better. I wanted to do this last week before they played Saints...but LVH Supercontest money showed up later than expected.

[indio]

Got it. Thanks. Gonna start betting tomorrow..Hopefully can get -180 or better. I wanted to do this last week before they played Saints...but LVH Supercontest money showed up later than expected.

If you want the best price, bet the +182. You're getting bad advice from people who would flunk basic math.

[LT Profits]

So what? He'd still be better off betting the +182 future. Seattle would need to be less than -124 in Super Bowl to equal +182. And if you figure NE beats Denver 32% of the time, this route is definately -ev from the original +182.

But HE is assuming Denver wins. I like NE +4.5 and so if were to play it, I would go with the straight future myself.

[housecloud]

So what? He'd still be better off betting the +182 future. Seattle would need to be less than -124 in Super Bowl to equal +182. And if you figure NE beats Denver 32% of the time, this route is definately -ev from the original +182.

Seattle would be less than -124 over Denver in the SB.

[indio]

Seattle would be less than -124 over Denver in the SB.

Let's for arguments sake assume you can get Seattle -170 vs. SF, and Seattle -120 vs Denver in the Super Bowl (and I doubt you'll get prices this good). That would produce a price of +191. Now, that's hardly going to be better when you factor NE will beat Denver at least 25% of the time in their game.

I'm just giving you the correct math angle on your original question. I certainly don't care what you do.

[LT Profits]

If you want the best price, bet the +182. You're getting bad advice from people who would flunk basic math.

Where am I off? Seattle would be -120 over Denver as of now, and as you said, +182 future is equivalent to -124. He is assuming Denver is going to win (which I would not do, but to each his own).

[LT Profits]

Let's for arguments sake assume you can get Seattle -170 vs. SF, and Seattle -120 vs Denver in the Super Bowl (and I doubt you'll get prices this good). That would produce a price of +191. Now, that's hardly going to be better when you factor NE will beat Denver at least 25% of the time in their game.

I'm just giving you the correct math angle on your original question. I certainly don't care what you do.

Right and I agree with you totally here. He was the one that introduced the Denver assumption.

[housecloud]

Let's for arguments sake assume you can get Seattle -170 vs. SF, and Seattle -120 vs Denver in the Super Bowl (and I doubt you'll get prices this good). That would produce a price of +191. Now, that's hardly going to be better when you factor NE will beat Denver at least 25% of the time in their game.

I'm just giving you the correct math angle on your original question. I certainly don't care what you do.

thanks for the input.. but I like Denver to smash New England.. So Assuming Denver and Seattle both win... and I get Seattle at -178 this weekend, and Seattle at -120 for the SB... should I still take the +182? or ML both all in.

[LT Profits]

Let's for arguments sake assume you can get Seattle -170 vs. SF, and Seattle -120 vs Denver in the Super Bowl (and I doubt you'll get prices this good). That would produce a price of +191. Now, that's hardly going to be better when you factor NE will beat Denver at least 25% of the time in their game.

I'm just giving you the correct math angle on your original question. I certainly don't care what you do.

Seattle -125 with a 30-cent line is up right now.

[Parlayplayer]

I put 1300 on sea+182 and 700 on sea over Denver. As long as u really like Seattle. This way u don't have to worry about spreads!

[housecloud]

I guess it comes down to how much I want to factor in the NE/DEN game.. I got the answers I needed. Thanks Guys. I'll post my plays in here later this week.

[Parlayplayer]

Here's the answer to ur question;

1000 on sea over ne at +584 gets u 5840+1000= 6840

1000 on sea over den at +319 gets u 3190+1000=4190

2000 on sea +182 gets u 3640+2000= 5640

best bet is sea at+182 unless ne beats Denver. U lose to much value if Denver goes to the sb so best play is seatle 182

[RudyRuetigger]

I put 1300 on sea+182 and 700 on sea over Denver. As long as u really like Seattle. This way u don't have to worry about spreads!

Here's the answer to ur question;

1000 on sea over ne at +584 gets u 5840+1000= 6840

1000 on sea over den at +319 gets u 3190+1000=4190

2000 on sea +182 gets u 3640+2000= 5640

best bet is sea at+182 unless ne beats Denver. U lose to much value if Denver goes to the sb so best play is seatle 182

guy look how you contradict yourself after 14 min. did you finally come to the correct answer, or just finally read the thread.

[indio]

Seattle -125 with a 30-cent line is up right now.

and your point is.............?

[Parlayplayer]

I gave him my suggested way to split the bet based on who I think will be in the Super Bowl. i also give a safe bet if ne were to make it. I then gave him the math behind his original question. I did not contradict myself at all. I simply suggested a play based on what he wants to bet. I think Denver wins the Super Bowl so none of these are my personal bets. It's not a contradiction because if u play it the way I suggest and Denver goes to the sb and sea wins u get value by picking that match up. However if ne makes it u still have ur sea +182 to still make a profit.

[RudyRuetigger]

I gave him my suggested way to split the bet based on who I think will be in the Super Bowl. i also give a safe bet if ne were to make it. I then gave him the math behind his original question. I did not contradict myself at all. I simply suggested a play based on what he wants to bet. I think Denver wins the Super Bowl so none of these are my personal bets. It's not a contradiction because if u play it the way I suggest and Denver goes to the sb and sea wins u get value by picking that match up. However if ne makes it u still have ur sea +182 to still make a profit.

so you are saying instead of questioning your ability to understand math, we should question your reading comprehension?

I've got $2,000 that I want on Seattle to win... What makes the most sense mathematically?

[LT Profits]

and your point is.............?

If no movement, should normalize to -120. And if there is movement, then the +182 future will move too.

[bubblebuttluv]

Seattle +181 is the best deal out of those options.

Say Seattle plays Denver, well then you have a gain of 0.21 units (You take your 1.21 unit profit and subtract your 1 unit investment in Seattle vs New England). Now if New England plays Seattle, well than you have a gain of 2.61 units (You take your 3.61 unit profit and subtract your 1 unit investment in Seattle vs Denver). You could make more money on Seattle vs New England, but you are counting on yet another game to go your way (aside from the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl).

And give the points to someone else, if you want. I could care less about the Betpoints.

So yes, my post was the right answer.

You always take out the losses on the other side which I guess ROFLCopter didn't think of?

Like I said earlier though, give the points to someone other than me.

LTProfits should get them if he hasn't already.

[Parlayplayer]

so you are saying instead of questioning your ability to understand math, we should question your reading comprehension?

who's we? I only see ur gay a$$ worried about what I'm writing to this guy on his thread. Nobody else seems to concerned, perhaps they have a a life, a girlfriend, money, I don't know i could probobaly think of a million better things to do then analyze people's posts then attempt to bash them pathetically! Gtfoh buddy, moving on!!!