Auburn fan hopes for $50K payday

[theclutch7]

theclutch7

I had them with the 10 and a half!, Fl St QB is amazing! Luck couldn't do that better himself!
The only thing is I wisk Winston the best! but the Heisman has been a curse for many whom had one it! Most recent RGIII, tore up knee. Not to mention OJ, Theisman, and a broken leg, Bush... ect... , what teram will he go to in 3 years time? Z

[theclutch7]

Go Noles, They win it again next year!

[theballsflop]

Hedging is always giving up value, thats a simple mathematical fact. But when faced with a spot where u have the chance to hit 500 units, its prudent to give up some value n settle for 150-200 units.

[floridagolfer]

Failure to hedge a 500-to-1 payoff is idiotic. I doubt this guy is waking up this morning and saying to himself, "I really have no use for $______."

[Big Bear]

yep guy is an idiot.

vegas couldnt afford to pay those futures..

thats why ref thru the game deciding flag

[greenhippo]

Guy says he hedged for $2k now on a $50k ticket. Fukkin retard didn't hedge shit. Too god damned stupid to even understand what that meant. Pathetic.

[747planes]

I read he was in vegas watching the game. He probably hedged the 2nd half or in game live play florida state money line at half time or earlier when they were betting big.

this threads show how many square clueless broke dick gamblers are on this forum. Hedging with florida state moneyline before the game started is a dumb move. hedging might be worth it if you are getting plus odds but even that it all depends on the bettors money situations and how much he values the money. all you guys saying that he is stupid for not hedging are probably bettors who reload every week or month and life time losing bettors.

[PaperTrail07]

Wish he would have hit...Sucks

[PaperTrail07]

What a game though....best in a while

[greenhippo]

I read he was in vegas watching the game. He probably hedged the 2nd half or in game live play florida state money line at half time or earlier when they were betting big.

this threads show how many square clueless broke dick gamblers are on this forum. Hedging with florida state moneyline before the game started is a dumb move. hedging might be worth it if you are getting plus odds but even that it all depends on the bettors money situations and how much he values the money. all you guys saying that he is stupid for not hedging are probably bettors who reload every week or month and life time losing bettors.

The guy didn't hedge and lost, those that would have hedged would have turned a profit. How is the guy who lost doing good but the ones who guaranteed a profit the ones who are constantly reloading?

[Big Bear]

I read he was in vegas watching the game. He probably hedged the 2nd half or in game live play florida state money line at half time or earlier when they were betting big.

this threads show how many square clueless broke dick gamblers are on this forum. Hedging with florida state moneyline before the game started is a dumb move. hedging might be worth it if you are getting plus odds but even that it all depends on the bettors money situations and how much he values the money. all you guys saying that he is stupid for not hedging are probably bettors who reload every week or month and life time losing bettors.

dumb move if you dont need money.

me personally i would have hedged so that i could guarantee my self 15-20 K no matter who won and then sat back with a nice cigar and glass of makers mark.

[packerd_00]

I had them with the 10 and a half!, Fl St QB is amazing! Luck couldn't do that better himself!
The only thing is I wisk Winston the best! but the Heisman has been a curse for many whom had one it! Most recent RGIII, tore up knee. Not to mention OJ, Theisman, and a broken leg, Bush... ect... , what teram will he go to in 3 years time? Z

Sam Bradford just tore his ACL this past season aswell.

[No coincidences]

Guy says he hedged for $2k now on a $50k ticket. Fukkin retard didn't hedge shit. Too god damned stupid to even understand what that meant. Pathetic.

This. He should've just kept his mouth shut instead of making up a story on the fly about this faux "hedge."

[No coincidences]

I read he was in vegas watching the game. He probably hedged the 2nd half or in game live play florida state money line at half time or earlier when they were betting big.

this threads show how many square clueless broke dick gamblers are on this forum. Hedging with florida state moneyline before the game started is a dumb move. hedging might be worth it if you are getting plus odds but even that it all depends on the bettors money situations and how much he values the money. all you guys saying that he is stupid for not hedging are probably bettors who reload every week or month and life time losing bettors.

Wow.

Re-read the thread.

[No coincidences]

Fact is long term hedging at -ev is a losing proposition.

Under most circumstances, yes.

But on a 500:1 bet? I can't believe the thought of hedging as a -EV proposition would even cross anyone's mind. Then again, I can't believe the thought of letting a 500:1 bet ride as an all or nothing scenario when you're down to the "final leg" could cross someone's mind either. I am stunned both by how stupid this guy is and some of the responses in this thread.

[swordsandtequila]

yep guy is an idiot.

vegas couldnt afford to pay those futures..

thats why ref thru the game deciding flag

Ref threw the "game deciding flag" because it was the right call. Enough with this bullsh*t.

[packerd_00]

Under most circumstances, yes.

But on a 500:1 bet? I can't believe the thought of hedging as a -EV proposition would even cross anyone's mind. Then again, I can't believe the thought of letting a 500:1 bet ride as an all or nothing scenario when you're down to the "final leg" could cross someone's mind either. I am stunned both by how stupid this guy is and some of the responses in this thread.

Maybe in his mindset he just wanted to take the risk of winning the whole enchilada.

[JakeLc]

at the very least how do you not hedge at halftime

[No coincidences]

yep guy is an idiot.

vegas couldnt afford to pay those futures..

thats why ref thru the game deciding flag

I can't tell if you're just joking around to get a rise out of people or if you're actually dumb enough to believe this.

[No coincidences]

Maybe in his mindset he just wanted to take the risk of winning the whole enchilada.

If that's truly the case, then he deserves to walk away with nothing more than his 15 minutes of fame and a ticket he might as well wipe his ass with, because that is a fatal blend of sheer stupidity and stubbornness at its worst.

[Bet10Heinekens]

at the very least how do you not hedge at halftime

I think he only hedge $2,000 at halftime , should have at least put 10 stacks on FSU at the half

https://twitter.com/markjskiba

[packerd_00]

If that's truly the case, then he deserves to walk away with nothing more than his 15 minutes of fame and a ticket he might as well wipe his ass with, because that is a fatal blend of sheer stupidity and stubbornness at its worst.

Not disagreeing with you, hell have alot of sleepless nights.

[TonyTall]

im kinda on his side tough to hedge when auburn led 14-3 and 21-3 FSU looked like complete frauds at that point. winston looked like a confused joke and that game looked destined for 35-3.........however at the half he had 15 minutes to think about it, 11 point game he should have put down 10k on FSU. so he would be sitting at 40k or 10k not 48k or 2k

[PaperTrail07]

At half, I would have made the move to gurantee atleast 10K myself...before the game....nope

im kinda on his side tough to hedge when auburn led 14-3 and 21-3 FSU looked like complete frauds at that point. winston looked like a confused joke and that game looked destined for 35-3.........however at the half he had 15 minutes to think about it, 11 point game he should have put down 10k on FSU. so he would be sitting at 40k or 10k not 48k or 2k

[TonyTall]

yeah he should have had 10k sitting in a book waiting to be used at the right spot.....guy got a great line at 500-1 when it probably should have been 100-1, then he got greedy

[packerd_00]

im kinda on his side tough to hedge when auburn led 14-3 and 21-3 FSU looked like complete frauds at that point. winston looked like a confused joke and that game looked destined for 35-3.........however at the half he had 15 minutes to think about it, 11 point game he should have put down 10k on FSU. so he would be sitting at 40k or 10k not 48k or 2k

That fake punt was the diffrence,if theyd messed that up it would have been awhole diffrent ball game.

[PaperTrail07]

agree.....they were cornered and hurting - then pulled a magic trick to flip that game...

That fake punt was the diffrence,if theyd messed that up it would have been awhole diffrent ball game.

[PaperTrail07]

For real -was just talking about that with a guy 500:1 holy fPenaTrATE!@...

yeah he should have had 10k sitting in a book waiting to be used at the right spot.....guy got a great line at 500-1 when it probably should have been 100-1, then he got greedy

[innovation]

I read he was in vegas watching the game. He probably hedged the 2nd half or in game live play florida state money line at half time or earlier when they were betting big.

this threads show how many square clueless broke dick gamblers are on this forum. Hedging with florida state moneyline before the game started is a dumb move. hedging might be worth it if you are getting plus odds but even that it all depends on the bettors money situations and how much he values the money. all you guys saying that he is stupid for not hedging are probably bettors who reload every week or month and life time losing bettors.

You are assuming there would even be a hedge opportunity....If FSU came out and buried Auburn immediately the ML would have been astronomical.....much worse than the -260 opener. Your point is invalid.

Secondly have you been in vegas trying to get down on a live in game wager? sure you can flop a couple hundred down and line might still be on the board but good luck laying LARGE money and not having the line change or disappear.

So basically all the stars lined up and he had a halftime opportunity to hedge. Considering the amount of money needed to wager good luck trying to hammer just one book.

[ChalkyDog]

If Auburn won, he would be getting props from everyone for his gambling nerve.

His money management was terrible, I get it. He doesn't know shit about gambling, he was in vegas and put a little bit of change on his favorite team. He gambled and he lost.

No need to dwell on something we all do mutliple times per week, if not day.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Unless money is no issue for you, you have to hedge that bet. It's like not having home owners insurance. I'm sure it feels exciting but it's careless and arrogant.

A few years ago, I had a 125 to 1 futures bet for a team in March Madness. $100 to win $12,500. As it got closer, I started calculating what I felt good at winning and hedged the last 3 games to ensure I took a profit. I also offset the hedge with some point spreads with my team that covered as well. I ended up making $9,500 total. I was guaranteed to make no less than $3,500. Unless that type of money is not important to you, you should hedge.

He could have had a guaranteed $15k no matter who won the game. That would have made it a lot easier to root for his team stress free.

[mynameismud]

it sounds like this was the guys first time laying action on sports. i definitely would not have done it his way as i believe in always making a profit if possible, but for popping his cherry...sounds like it was an exciting time for him.

[TonyTall]

innovation is right. he didnt mess up by not hedging at the start. i mean even i predicted a fresh FSU defense would stuff aubrun early and fsu would lead 14-0 and then cruise.........however most of us here would have been locked and loaded at a book with at least 10k waiting if by chance Auburn took a 10-3 lead or a 14-10 lead with some momentum and FSU could be scooped up at -140


guy made the ultimate mistake by doing nothing at halftime plain and simple. he wasnt informed or prepared

[warbux]

im kinda on his side tough to hedge when auburn led 14-3 and 21-3 FSU looked like complete frauds at that point. winston looked like a confused joke and that game looked destined for 35-3.........however at the half he had 15 minutes to think about it, 11 point game he should have put down 10k on FSU. so he would be sitting at 40k or 10k not 48k or 2k

fsu caught some momentum right before the end of the 1h, I def would have laid money on them if I were him.

[Blax0r]

He didn't "lose" $50,000; the perfect hedge (pre-game) would yield about $10,000 assuming odds of 1.27.

$500 to end up with $50,100
$39,449 to end up with $50,100

result - bets = 50,100 - 39949 = $10,151.

It's still a lot of money, but is significantly less than $50k.

Although, I wonder if there's a market for cashing out these sorts of bets; like offer to buy the ticket off him for $8,000 or something.