Clemson Tigers to Win +130 write-up

[Snowball]

Tom, here... but it doesn't matter much.

Top NCAAFB Public Bets

#1 268 Ball State 68%

#2 264 Ohio State 64%

#3 266 Vanderbilt 63%

#4 262 Missouri 60%

#5 269 Auburn 58%

[inTomWeTrust]

All in alert

[VegasInsider]

Why are Braxton Miller's passing numbers an issue? He wasn't asked to throw the ball a lot and the Buckeyes were crushing teams all season, no need to throw in most of the games in the 2H. I don't think those numbers tell the real story. Clemson is not in the same class as OSU, it's pretty clear. Ohio State didn't lose to MSU because they aren't good. They lost because MSU proved to be the elite defense everyone witnessed on New Years Day.

I don't like really like this game at all but I'd lean Ohio State as Boyd proves, yet again, he can't win on the big stage.

[Snowball]

Just because Clemson scores doesn't mean Ohio State is going to start passing. Braxton and Hyde both averaged over 6 YPC against Michigan state so I don't see Clemson slowing them down.

Sure, Ohio St put up 273 rushing yards vs Mich St, but... they also only scored 24 points in the game.
Clemson's rush d isn't as good as their pass d, but it's not weak either.
The 49th rank in that category is deceiving, because they still only allow an avg of 152.6 ypg.
I'm not saying Ohio St won't score 30 points.
Just that Clemson will score more. With the o/u at 71 i think it says more about
Ohio's weaknesses tonight and Clemson's strengths than the side line does.

[inTomWeTrust]

I have a hard time seeing a Public Favorite go down again... I also have to question that North Carolina St game with Clemson... that was horrendous and looked like fix was in on that game IMO... Clemson has been shady all season

[Snowball]

Clemson to win Orange Bowl vs. Ohio State, according to expert dolphin

[PaperTrail07]

Dolphin was high http://www.independent.co.uk/environ...d-9030126.html Dolphins ‘deliberately get high’ on puffer fish nerve toxins by carefully chewing and passing them around

[PAULYPOKER]

According to Sportsinsights about 60% of the public money is on Ohio State thus far.

TODAY'S GAMES
TOP TEN BETS

1	Clemson	POINT SPREAD
2	Oklahoma State	POINT SPREAD
3	Missouri	POINT SPREAD
4	Oklahoma State	OVER
5	Clemson	OVER
6	Missouri	MONEY LINE
7	Clemson	MONEY LINE
8	Oklahoma State	MONEY LINE

[PAULYPOKER]

^

[inTomWeTrust]

thats today... thats the donks trying to be sharp not public haus

[SteveKerrsJunk]

I agree. F Ohio state. They will choke. Won't stop Boyd either.

[I/O]

Ohio State has the name recognition, the misleading rank advantage,
and the marginal line.. that's why most bettors are on Ohio State.
Realize a good % of the public is casual, they will go with the favorite
most of the time, and not dig for info. Also the bet % is not by dollar amount.
If you consider also how dull the vegas linesmakers have been this bowl season,
the lines have been way off. Deducing from this is why I went ML and not +3.
The reasons for the side pick itself have nothing to do with any of that.
Clemson is going to put up a lot of points tonight. Ohio will be forced to make
fast yardage via passing. It won't work. The team which puts up the most points wins.
As plain as that sounds, it's something never to lose sight of.

The smartest fukin thing EVER posted on SBR! There's still a glimmer of hope for this place. Small glimmer.

[PAULYPOKER]

^Exactly.......

And here's the proof......

01/03/2014 8:00 PM EST
261 OKLAHOMA STATE	60.5	-2	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5 -08	-2.5 -05	-2.5 -15	54%	36%	87%
262 MISSOURI	-1.5 -09	63	62.5	63	61	63.5	61.5o12	61.5o08	61.5	46%	64%	13%
01/03/2014 8:30 PM EST
263 CLEMSON	66.5	72.5	71.5	71	70	71.5	71.5o06	71o08	70.5	40%	50%	82%
264 OHIO STATE	-3 EVEN	-3	-2.5	-2.5	-3 EVEN	-3	-2.5 -03	-2.5 -09	-2.5	60%	50%	18%
01/04/2014 2:00 PM EST

TODAY'S GAMES
TOP TEN BETS

1	Clemson	POINT SPREAD
2	Oklahoma State	POINT SPREAD
3	Missouri	POINT SPREAD
4	Oklahoma State	OVER
5	Clemson	OVER
6	Missouri	MONEY LINE
7	Clemson	MONEY LINE
8	Oklahoma State	MONEY LINE

[tailin junkie]

Not sure if you got that list from vegas insider but their list has Clemson listed first but for some reason the list begins with #2, and does not have ohio state listed at all. This means ohio state is #1. No clue why they omitted #1, just something I just noticed.

[I/O]

You guys can take Vegas Insider, Sports Insights, StatFox, and whatever other numbers crap you can pay for, and flush it down the toilet. They get all their info from the books. The books ain't here to work against themselves.

Think about it....any software designer/programmer/stat nerd could easily come up with something that makes auto plays off that info. It hasn't happened and the info is shit.

The only info that would be useful, that you will NEVER get, is wagers placed. Including dollar amounts and times. It will NEVER happen. They couldn't charge enough to keep people away from that info.

[PAULYPOKER]

True dat......

[tailin junkie]

I was just saying their list began at #2 and many people probably did not notice. That is all.

[Snowball]

the betting action was 65% Ohio St.. dropped to 64% while i was posting this thread and now it's sitting around 60% on Ohio St vs the spread. Which is why most houses have the LM to -2.5 .. too much is made about this info. Lines adjust based on dollar action, not # of bets. The Clemson pick is for specific game reasons, not a public fade. It's somewhat of a fade on the linesmakers who have not been accurate this bowl season to take Clemson ML instead of ats. But I still wouldn't have done that unless I thought Clemson would win.
nuff said and let's see the orange team win the orange bowl.

[M.W.]

Why do you think Ohio State will need to pass exactly? Think Clemson can stop Hyde and Miller?

Hyde, yes.

Miller, no.

[jtoler]

All of that can not matter, with many weeks to prepare it'll no doubt be about schemes and matchups, teams have watched alot of tape of one another and will be trying to exploit mismatches. You bring up Clemson's pass defense while failing to say that they only played 3 teams with any resemblance of a passing attack and that was Georgia who they only beat by 3 in the first game of the season, Florida St. who killed them and South Carolina who beat them by 2 tds. Murray rang up 323 passing yards. Shaw threw for 152 but they didnt need to pass as Boyd and company turned the ball over 6 times and S.C. ran the ball over 60% of the time. Winston dropped 444 passing yards on them so those pass defensive stats are flawed by a down year in the ACC as far as qbs. Besides OSU throws a more balanced attack at you, game is gonna be about playmakers, Boyd has come up short many times in the big game, only thing OSU's d isnt anything to write home about and their whole offense is basically Miller and Hyde.

[M.W.]

Ohio St is the better team in the better conference. Its that simple. Urban Meyer > Dabo is the icing on the cake. I'm pretty sure Ohio State has heard all about there defense sucking for the past month so we will see what happens

Conferences are even. Urban > Dabo, but what about OSU's DC vs. Chad Morris?

[Wilfred]

Hyde, yes.

Miller, no.

I don't think you stand a chance to stop Hyde from running. More likely Miller. But hey, Hyde Doesn't score a TD prop is +230

[M.W.]

Dolphin was high http://www.independent.co.uk/environ...d-9030126.html Dolphins ‘deliberately get high’ on puffer fish nerve toxins by carefully chewing and passing them around

That was worth posting. Thanks!

[Bumdeal]

over over over. final score 45-38

[PAULYPOKER]

Public will not win the over 2 nights in a row

[ringemup]

After watching the dogs sweep the BCS board outrite we get a game thats been flying under the radar a bit. Clemson and Ohio ST. match up in the Orange Bowl looking to prove something.
Clemson comes off a loss to SC while the Bucks suffered a letdown vs MSU in the BIG10. From a motivational point, Bucks have to be reeling sumwut after missing the opp. to play for the title.They also will miss their top sack leader and cover corner. Clemson is in a familiar spot n will want to atone from their last BCS game when they got beat in humiliating fashion by WV.

On off. Bucks rely on power and speed to run Miller n Hyde then mix it up with the deep ball. Clemsons D has struggled vs run and will need to be stout. However theres an impt. advantage because Clemson practices daily against read-option run game with Boyd. I expect Clemson to be ready for OSU's runs.
Clemson on off. is prolific as well with Watkins one of the best at WR. OSU has played well n D but has been exposed on the back end vs likes of MSU and MU passing attacks. Tajh Boyd has improved yr. by yr. and showed las yr. in the bowl game vs LSU how far hes come. The Bucks minus 2 of their best playmakers on d-line n secondary will be tested.

What convinces me to take CLEMSON here is this, they have BY FAR played and BEAT tougher teams than the Bucks have scheduled las 2 seasons including Georgia and LSU. Throw in the ugly loss to FSU but facing Winston taught them lessons thatll make them tougher. I feel Venables can put in an aggressive def. gameplan together stack the box n make Miller move chains thru the air. Clemson though is strong against the pass n Bucks will struggle to hit big plays. Injuries for the Bucks cant come at a worser time and young players will be left defending Watkins and co. on an island. I have to question OSUs mindset knowing they let a NCG app. slip away but regardless dont see that as a big edge since they havent bowled since 2 yrs. bak.

EDGE TO CLEMSON ML +120. 10-15 UNIT PLAY. GL

[Tommy Karate]

Conferences are even. Urban > Dabo, but what about OSU's DC vs. Chad Morris?

saban was >>>>>>>>>>> stoops

im banking on osu being flat as bama was....

[Tommy Karate]

Public will not win the over 2 nights in a row

which over doesnt win iceman? or both?

by the way....spin it any way you like, the public is on ohio st..lol

[PAULYPOKER]

^MaZoo game most definitely and maybe OSU game......

[Tommy Karate]

Why are Braxton Miller's passing numbers an issue? He wasn't asked to throw the ball a lot and the Buckeyes were crushing teams all season, no need to throw in most of the games in the 2H. I don't think those numbers tell the real story. Clemson is not in the same class as OSU, it's pretty clear. Ohio State didn't lose to MSU because they aren't good. They lost because MSU proved to be the elite defense everyone witnessed on New Years Day.

I don't like really like this game at all but I'd lean Ohio State as Boyd proves, yet again, he can't win on the big stage.

he did beat LSU last year in a NYE bowl...not bad

[jtoler]

he did beat LSU last year in a NYE bowl...not bad

Because of a green Mettenburger, young RB and young defense, Clemson outgained LSU by probably 200 yards won only by 1 on a last second field goal, Clemson had over 20 more 1st downs and barely won. Boyd did show out that game, that performance was their only hope.

[GT21Megatron]

Conferences are even. Urban > Dabo, but what about OSU's DC vs. Chad Morris?

Did you just say the Big 12 is even with the ACC? Check the number on the ACC in BCS bowls and let me know if that changes your mind.....I want what your smoking

[pavyracer]

Everyone in love with Clemson and no one likes Ohio St. It usually ends in gamblers burial.

[GT21Megatron]

LMAO @ ACC In The BCS

The ACC is a combined 2-10 in bcs games with ZERO wins over the SEC, BigTen, Big12, and Pac10. Their 2 wins came against the mighty UC Bearcats and the Juggernaut N. Illinois Huskies. In that time frame, the Buckeyes have 3x as many BCS wins than the ENTIRE ACC Conference. Considering the Orange Bowl has been the worst BCS Bowl Game for a while that is stuck with the ACC and former BigEast, The fact that the ACC couldn't get more than 2 wins is laughable as a conference.....oh yea I'm a GT fan....
Then this year, FSU is claiming that it is the Buckeyes weak schedule that is to blame as well as the "boring and predictable" style of football for the bucks dropping from #2. Of course when the actual SOS are compared, the Buckeyes will prove to have more quality wins and a tougher SOS. So how did the ACC even get to be the "flavor of the week" with ESPN? At one point, they had 3 top10 teams until they actually played a decent team and were exposed(besides FSU)... The fact that Duke is going to the ACC Championship game should be a red flag for the voters. That would be like IU leading a BigTen division.

[scarletknight]

Nice writeup OP, I'm pulling for Clemson too.