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Enjoy it boys, but consider this the opposite of a bad beat.
We did not deserve to cover the line in this match.
Don't get me wrong, pre game I believed Samoa would win this easily by 20+ (hence the 4 unit play), but I have never seen such an ill disciplined, pathetic display from an almost NRL standard team, truly disgraceful. Take a bunch of strong, fast and super talented Islanders with brains the size's of golf balls and this is what can happen...
Their game plan was actually spot on - trying to physically beat up and intimidate the French (who just don't experience this sort of rugby league), but the way they went about it and their execution was an absolute joke, I am very very disappointed, despite making an awful lot of money on that match.
Remember it's not about any one individual win or loss, it's about the quality of your plays and the whole process. I was wrong on the line movement (usually my strength) and in hindsight I think we went too big on this play, the edge just wasn't as big as I thought...Comment -
Same here????Comment -
Preliminary matches are done now, and the finals will start in a couple of days.
I'd say we have had a good 1st half of the tournament...
12-5
+14.88 UnitsComment -
chatted with tech support , they reverted the bet.
Good stuff sando, thanksComment -
I think the 4 unit play propelled them to cover the spread. They wouldn't have covered otherwise.Comment -
It seemed as tho benny Roberts thought he was playing with para again. They made look so diffic
ult when it didn't have to be. You're the master of the tourney sando !!!!.Comment -
I feel quite lucky after hitting this as well. Samoa were so damn lazy at marker letting france get some easy metres and giving away stupid penalties. Should be some big hits in samoa vs fiji!Comment -
Early lines (sportingbet)
+42.5 Scotland vs NZ
+56.5 USA vs AUS
+37.5 France vs England
Very very generous lines there.Comment -
Yup. Looks like an easy cover there.Comment -
best of luck for your next play Sando, you have been absolutely amazing so far through this tournamentComment -
What's everyone feeling for NZ vs Scotland match? I'm thinking Scotland over 6.5 points/over 1.5 tries seems doable due to Brough, Wallace and Russell's flair in attack. NZ conceded 5 tries to Samoa, 2 to PNG and none to France who have scored just 2 all tournament. I rank Scotland somewhere between Samoa and PNG. The weather seems fine and NZ may get lazy in defence once they put up a big score. Predicting a 46-12 sort of scoreline. (leaning Scotland line)Comment -
Give me Linnett,Wallace,Russell,Henderson,Dougla s,Brough + 7 bums + 44 points against a polynesian team.Comment -
Yes however this is not just "a polynesian team", this is the reigning cup holders who go toe to toe with Australia regularly. I would say over 90% of NZ's players play in the NRL so would all have to have a high workrates, great fitness and would be very professional unlike most other polynesian nations.
In saying that 44 points are alot to cover thoughComment -
Call me crazy but I think NZ cover easy, Scotland win with Tonga(big disappointing of the tournament for me but played really good second half against Scotland), draw with Italy( allows lots of points) and another win vs. USA, but only because they made many changes in rooster in second half(1half 0-8 for USA).
plays for tonight
NZ -42.5
NZ over 9.5 tries or 54,5 pointsComment -
I'm with you on this one mate! I think NZ were comfortable knowing they would easily win and qualify for the finals so they may have only been in 2nd-3rd gear and haven't over exerted their players through for rugby league players playing more than once a week is a very hard on their bodies! They will be fresh and ready to go, used the last few games to work on combination play and gelling of team mates! It's time to get serious, they will go in with a winning mentality as the reigning champions! They will blow them off the park, they won't be letting their opponents have any soft passage ways! I would be very surprised if Almighty Sando thought otherwise! Would love to hear your opinion mate! You are the chosen one!!
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Any leans for USA vs AUS gents? Leaning USA +54.5..not sure if USA will be able to score thoughComment -
I lean Australia to cover (without checking weather conditions), I'd like to see what Sando thinks.Comment -
I ended up going with Aus/USA under 62.5.
Curious to see what others went with.Comment -
USA +54.5 here for 1 unit.
Basically USA top team of the 2nd tier of rugby nations.
Aussies to win by 8 tries...
GL gents...Comment -
Sando seems to have gone missing in the 2nd half of the Tourney which is a shame he was on a real roll there.
I agree with the above sentiments, I think it will go under and that the USA will be able to cover the spread much like Scotland did the other nightComment -
Australia v USA
1* USA +54.5 (-109/$1.91 Sportingbet)
Sorry for the late notice. Line is a tad too high in this match. Thinking AustraliaComment -
Goodluck sando thanks for sharing :beer:Comment -
Thanks Sando good luck tonight. Do you think the USA will be able to put up some points or will we see a donut on the board for them when the 80 mins is up?
On another note who will you be pledging your allegiance to in this one as I know you are both American and AustralianComment -
England v France
2* England 1st Half -17.5 (-119/$1.84 Sportsbet/IAS)Comment -
If USA score even a single converted try then it will be extremely hard for AUS to cover, I think they have enough talent to pinch one but I don't think that they will score.
My dad is American and I lived in NY for a couple of years and went to high school there, but I am as Australian as they come.Comment -
USA vs AUS line (+/-54.5)
Australia have been absolute monsters in defence conceding only 2 points to fiji and 0 to ireland in their games against below tier one nation teams. USA i would say is better than Ireland but roughly on par in form but weaker in quality of players compared to Fiji. USA's only attacking option is Joseph Paulo and i think all but one try USA has scored in this tournament was scored or assisted by him. However this was against very weak opposition where a cut out pass or inside ball is usually enough to score. Australia's defence is the best in the competition and they do not want to give away points. Unlike NZ who are very ruthless and do not stop scoring even when they are up by 40, Australia tends to relax in the scoring department when they are leading by a big margin. Maybe this was due to the fact they did not want to risk injury during the earlier stages of the game.
Australia go into this match having named their full strength squad with JT back at 5/8 and inglis back also. They go into this match knowing they will win and with that confidence players tend to relax more and not play at 100% intensity that we would find in a NRL semi or equivalent. I don't think i need to compare the individual players as all of Australias' is at least a class above the USA's. However this is the biggest game for USA in their league history and a close contest could mean extra funding/financial support for the game there. Note: USA players DON'T get paid or have an allowance for their participation in this tournament. After watching their last two games, their defense was very desperate and help very solid. Their inability to secure the ball allowed their opponents the offloads to the tries they conceded. Australia does not tend to offload alot apart from Gallen and Parker. Considering the USA's ok defense, recent form and Australia's leniency i like the USA to cover the line.
I don't expect the USA to score more than one try. i don't expect Paulo to convert any goals. I also don't think Australia will score more than 10 tries as USA will not let them run riots. the total at 62.5 looks slightly inflated to me. even if Australia score 9+ i dont expect more than 80% goal conversion success. If USA were to cover the 54.5 line, the total match points would have to be under 62.5 as there is about a 5% chance if not lower they will score more than once.
My prediction: Total Match points UNDER 64.5 ($1.83 betfair)
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+ a/h's are covered even if the score never even get's as high say 54.5 right?Last edited by plekz; 11-16-13, 08:12 AM.Comment -
yep australia just walking in nowComment -
kangaroos putting on a clinicComment -
livebetting unders on rugby is my new favorite thing.Comment
