Wow, books aren't messing around with Game 2

[Ra77er]

High winds blowing out to right at the moment, probably gonna look to the over 7 if it keeps up.

[whtsox13]

Why did Cards line move from -110 to +112 this morning? Carlos Beltran in or out?

[The Giant]

High winds blowing out to right at the moment, probably gonna look to the over 7 if it keeps up.

Do wind conditions stay fairly consistent over 10 hour periods?

[Ra77er]

Giant

[The Giant]

It was a legit question.

I once saw Billysink post about the winds swirling out of Detroit the night before the game.
Fast-forward about 12 hours, and the game went over.

I just need to know the validity of this information, God damn it!

[LT Profits]

Guess the angles I can think of is the pressure will obviously be higher this series than NLCS. Not just because it's the W.S. but his team is behind now. He played with a series lead both times vs Dodgers who were also not healthy and outta their zone at the plate for most of that series. Now he is down 0-1 on the BIGGEST stage and the weight in tonights game to not let his team go down 0-2 will be a heavier burden than he has carried. Add to that Lackey on the other side, post season at Fenway, and a hot hitting Sox team that seems destined!

To be fair, Wacha pitched with the Cardinals facing elimination on the road in Pittsburgh and took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. You'd think facing elimination is more pressure than down 0-1.

[Ra77er]

It was a legit question.

I once saw Billysink post about the winds swirling out of Detroit the night before the game.
Fast-forward about 12 hours, and the game went over.

I just need to know the validity of this information, God damn it!

I assure you my info is pretty accurate for the time being giant, I thought you were being sarcastic. My bad, I am not from Boston nor have I ever been so I wouldn't be the person to give that kind of validity to the weather holding but as of now its much more windy (is that a word) than yesterdays game. Beltran is listed as doubtful which does impact some scoring but I think grabbing 7 right now would be a better bet than trying to pick value on that ra77er sharp line.

[PickoMoff]

Guess the angles I can think of is the pressure will obviously be higher this series than NLCS. Not just because it's the W.S. but his team is behind now. He played with a series lead both times vs Dodgers who were also not healthy and outta their zone at the plate for most of that series. Now he is down 0-1 on the BIGGEST stage and the weight in tonights game to not let his team go down 0-2 will be a heavier burden than he has carried. Add to that Lackey on the other side, post season at Fenway, and a hot hitting Sox team that seems destined!

He also pitched in an elimination game vs a healthy pirates team when cardinals where behind in the series 2-1.

[PickoMoff]

Why did Cards line move from -110 to +112 this morning? Carlos Beltran in or out?

Beltran has a bruised rib. Haven't heard anything yet about him being out of the lineup.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Well to be fair Pitt would have trouble hitting off a tee most the time. BoSox offense is way more powerful and explosive and this is not a div series. By all means not downplaying the kid I think he's a stud and shown some huge cajones so far. But this is an even bigger stage and Sox are not Pitt. Just pointing out an angle is all but he may rise again and be huge tonight.... Cards better hope so!!

[The Giant]

I assure you my info is pretty accurate for the time being giant, I thought you were being sarcastic. My bad, I am not from Boston nor have I ever been so I wouldn't be the person to give that kind of validity to the weather holding but as of now its much more windy (is that a word) than yesterdays game. Beltran is listed as doubtful which does impact some scoring but I think grabbing 7 right now would be a better bet than trying to pick value on that ra77er sharp line.

Ra77er, thank you for the reply.

Your hard work, kindness, and generosity has propelled you into my top 10 list of favorite SBR posters.

With that said, if this game goes under, you're dead to me.

[Ra77er]

Sending death threats to Beltran now

[odog11]

Talk in Boston about how Sox just faced one of the all time team starting pitching performances in post season history, and took the series in 6.

This kid is the real deal and less familiarity/film on him may be to his favor, but Red Sox at Fenway won't be. Lackey has been really good at Fenway and has shown he can step up and get it done in the post season.

With Beltran possibly out or limited I would wait to get +120 on the Cards or not much value there and it is a pass.

Going to watch a bit myself and might do a little Red Sox/Over parlay for fun.

[BriGuy]

I am more inclined to think there is no reason to believe Wacha is due for a bad game. Why should he be after allowing more than two earned runs just twice during the regular season?

That would be a heck of a lot more impressive stat if: 1) It was actually true, which it isn't because the real number is 3, and 2) He actually started more than 9 games.

The kid is the real deal, it is not as if he is pitching way over his head or anything where you'd expect a lot of regression. If the regression is allowing two or three runs, that is fine.

The guy has pitched a total of 85 innings in his Major League Career, and is now going to the World Series to pitch on the road against a team that outscored each of St. Louis' previous opponent by over 200 runs.

[BriGuy]

To be fair, Wacha pitched with the Cardinals facing elimination on the road in Pittsburgh and took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. You'd think facing elimination is more pressure than down 0-1.

Sorry, but there are no set of circumstances where the Divisional Series is more pressure than the World Series. Not even an elimination game.

[BriGuy]

Why did Cards line move from -110 to +112 this morning? Carlos Beltran in or out?

Because people looked at the morning papers and said "Holy shit a guy with 85 innings pitched in his career is going into Fenway to take on the best offense in baseball??!?"

[SBR_John]

That would be a heck of a lot more impressive stat if: 1) It was actually true, which it isn't because the real number is 3, and 2) He actually started more than 9 games.The guy has pitched a total of 85 innings in his Major League Career, and is now going to the World Series to pitch on the road against a team that outscored each of St. Louis' previous opponent by over 200 runs.

Very good points. Not worried about Boston's offense. It was fairly average against Detroit. I'm worried about the Cardinals hitting in Fenway. I know last night was just one game but it was a little telling in the mid innings when they really needed base runners that they were still swinging at garbage. Gonna be a spectator in this one.

[BriGuy]

Very good points. Not worried about Boston's offense. It was fairly average against Detroit. I'm worried about the Cardinals hitting in Fenway. I know last night was just one game but it was a little telling in the mid innings when they really needed base runners that they were still swinging at garbage. Gonna be a spectator in this one.

I've got a big series play in on the Red Sox, so I have no need to bet on an individual game, but Fenway Park is a legit hitters' park, and unlike NL games, there are no guaranteed outs in the lineups. I could definitely see either team, if not both, scoring tonight. I'll probably stay away from it, but that Over-7 bet is looking very, very tempting.

[matthew919]

Because people looked at the morning papers and said "Holy shit a guy with 85 innings pitched in his career is going into Fenway to take on the best offense in baseball??!?"

There are ways to accurately evaluate pitching talent based on ~200 plate appearances. Based on my own metrics, Wacha is as good as he looks so far. The opener was slightly generous to the Cards- but there may have been an over-correction by the market, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more action on StL before game time.

As for the "pressure" angle, you guys place way too much emphasis on that sort of thing. It's effect on performance is not supported by any kind of actual statistics.

[Ra77er]

Matthew I can respect the pocket protector nation but I don't see how you could deny that there isn't "pressure" situations in competitive sports. I guess if you personally haven't experienced it then perhaps it would be hard to understand. LOB% at fangraphs is I believe the only "stat" that attempts to show performance in relation to pressure but no there is not a way to quantify it or its effects. Personally I think it should be something to consider in your handicapping methods but to each his own.

[LT Profits]

That would be a heck of a lot more impressive stat if: 1) It was actually true, which it isn't because the real number is 3

No it is true. He allowed six earned in his second career start vs. Arizona, four earned at Colorado and TWO earned or less in all his other starts. Everything else I posted is a matter of opinion so that's fine, but my factual numbers are correct.

[matthew919]

Matthew I can respect the pocket protector nation but I don't see how you could deny that there isn't "pressure" situations in competitive sports. I guess if you personally haven't experienced it then perhaps it would be hard to understand. LOB% at fangraphs is I believe the only "stat" that attempts to show performance in relation to pressure but no there is not a way to quantify it or its effects. Personally I think it should be something to consider in your handicapping methods but to each his own.

IMO, not accurately predictable and measurable = not real. There's a reason why the trained animals who play/watch sports are so bad at betting on them- they assign far too much weight to emotional/psychological angles, supported by small sample sizes, recency effects, and confirmation bias. In other words, they're bad at math.

[Big Bear]

Why did Cards line move from -110 to +112 this morning? Carlos Beltran in or out?

B/C the Cardinals looked bad last night and the Red Sox were
clicking on all cylinders

[Ra77er]

I can agree with you on most accounts there Matt, I am certainly guilty of this myself at times and no surprise a losing hamburger/ (trained animal). I guess I struggle to comprehend how a modeler would react if Wakka goes out tonight and can't find the strike zone/gets shelled even if your data suggests otherwise. I think you have to think about the human element to a certain degree but I do realize that I am speaking out of my ass when it comes to modeling. Best of luck on your plays Matt

[Tommy Karate]

Wacha is the real thing.

Money line is accurate though- Boston should be small favorites here.

wacha is a nasty young arm, but i think hes up against it tonight. This series will go 6/7 but i think its home team dominated.

i may mortgage my condo on SL if they are down 0-2 in game 3...

[JabooFootball]

Boston takes both at home, and if St Louis doesnt win Gm 3 bring out the broom. My head screamed to throw money on Waino last night but I decided to take the home team with both team hurling aces. The sox hit righties better than any other team. Anyone who says Wacha has faced this must pressure before just doesnt understand baseball. This is what kids dream about, but at Fenway it might turn into a nightmare. This game is just like last night's, you can create a statistical argument to support either side, but I'm gonna stick with the offensive juggernaut with home field advantage. A 1-0 lead will allow boston to play even more loose tonight.

Boston ML (still on the fence about RL)

[shooterman]

Cardinal defense sucks incredibly bad. They looked like a JV team last night. I don't care who is pitching for them they looked completely outclassed. Lackey has been clutch all year even though there was a ton of offensive non support in games he pitched. Whichever surgeon did his Tommy John surgery is the guy I would get to do mine. Lackey is throwing better than ever. Sox will win tonight and St Louis will get even when Boston has to play without their DH and have to throw Mr Hyperactivity Peavy and fragile Bucholz.

[JabooFootball]

Cardinal defense sucks incredibly bad. They looked like a JV team last night. I don't care who is pitching for them they looked completely outclassed. Lackey has been clutch all year even though there was a ton of offensive non support in games he pitched. Whichever surgeon did his Tommy John surgery is the guy I would get to do mine. Lackey is throwing better than ever. Sox will win tonight and St Louis will get even when Boston has to play without their DH and have to throw Mr Hyperactivity Peavy and fragile Bucholz.

Boston playing sans DH shouldnt be as much of a factor with ortiz moving to first. But I do think the cards SHOULD take 3 and 4, however if they do not take three I think boston closes out in 4.

[shooterman]

Yeah, some kind of magic thing going on with Boston this year but I really believe that Napoli has become a very good first baseman in a short period of time. Papi is actually not that bad either but one of the big guns has to sit in St Louis unless they get way too creative and throw Napoli out in left? Haha I would love to see some wacky move like that!

[KiDBaZkiT]

The outcome of every game isn't some seceret hidden within the line that if studied enough can be cracked. They aren't gonna pay you CHEAP fukks +$ on every game so you can just take dogs and hope for a split the you go 1-1 and win. Ooooooooooo pussy shit.

[Sam Odom]

Just pick the winner... Dont over think it

Just go with who you think wins, books are not trying to mindfuck you.

The outcome of every game isn't some seceret hidden within the line that if studied enough can be cracked.

[No coincidences]

Who said anything about the books trying to "mindfvck" anyone? I just said that if you liked the Cards, you weren't getting a very good number for the gamble of backing a rookie on the road in a virtual must-win spot. That has changed since last night.

The irony of reading too much into my initial post is very rich. You're saying "don't overthink it" when some of you are the ones overthinking the thread. Or, in Skkkammy's case, you're just too stupid and can't grasp simple reading comprehension.

[You mad bro]

cards should be -140

wacha > kershaw

[SBR_John]

My official play in the Under 7 +105. I like a 3-2 type of game. Definitely not convinced the Cardinals will generate much offense. Not too worried about the youth in pitching angle either. He does need to get through the first and he'll be fine.

[curtrambus]

Cards can't hit lefty's for shit. Last night did make sense as to why they didn't put up a lot of runs.