NCAA Week 9 Opening Line Discussion (200 point Giveaway)

[Vinnie Paz]

Ralphie, as far as the Boise St game goes, I think the line reflects the fact that Southwick is out, or at least he was last I looked.

Had that game at roughly -3.5, but -7 is about right without Southwick.

was just gonna post about Southwick. Broken ankle should be out for year.

[Microbetter]

SMU Alot of people will bet against Temle.
Furman already moved up 3 pts. so that was my first pick.

[Vinnie Paz]

Thoughts on penn st getting 15 @ Ohio st??

[Urbanwildlife]

Thoughts on Arizona -15.5 at Colorado???? Unless I am missing something, I see no reason why Arizona should not cover this easily.

[ChalkyDog]

Thoughts on Arizona -15.5 at Colorado???? Unless I am missing something, I see no reason why Arizona should not cover this easily.

They should, doesn't mean they will.

I'm an Arizona homer, I think Arizona is around a 3 TD favorite over Colorado. Is the trip worth 5 points?

I have had a helluva time reading Arizona since Rich Rod got here.

QB is getting better each game. Doesn't turn the ball over. Only turnovers on the season where in the shit weather up in Washington.
RB is a legit stud worth of a top pick - easy 1st rd talent. Is leading the nation in YPG. Would be leading the nation in total yards if he wasn't suspended for the first game of the year. He is looking to break records, and sign for millions.
WR is suspect, is that our QB who has a problem with anything over the top, or do they just suck?
Def is wildly improved from last year, better vs the pass than the run - but respectable in both. It's built to bend and not break, so CU could put up points with a legit kicker. Might be some injuries that would need to be checked into.

Things to look at then would be weather, CU's rush defense, and rush offense.

Bottom line, yes - they should cover easily, but it's a legit coin flip due to how bad this team looks at times. I'll post in this thread if I bet it.

[Louisvillekid1]

I have Rutgers as slight favorites, -9 has to be adjusting to the letdown aspect.

Pitt v Navy is a PK - IMO, slightly favoring Pitt obviously - but not close to a full TD better.

Just using raw numbers, Stanford is favored by 4 pts too many. Going to be a fun game.

Feel like Nevada is not getting enough respect. Should be favored by 10, IMO.

I always like WKU more than I should, and my numbers are skewed as a result, because I have WKU as close to two TD better than troy this week.

My numbers have Hawai'i as 6.5 dogs at home. Vs. CSU. I have a hard time believing that. Lean Hawai'i, but not significantly.

The Arizona game seems right number wise. I have Arizona as 21 point favorites over Colorado, but traveling to CU is probably worth 5 points with this Arizona team. QB is getting better each week, RB is trying to set records, Coach wont be the reason we lose, defense is improved enough to play tough. If you're betting CU, it's a backdoor cover scenario.

My pick for this contest is Florida Atlantic. Feel Auburn should be 3 TD favorites max.

AGree with NAVY that's my pick for contest

[Huckleberry Pig]

Thoughts on Arizona -15.5 at Colorado???? Unless I am missing something, I see no reason why Arizona should not cover this easily.

take a look at the weather for that game. not saying that's the reason, but if it's outdoor it may play a factor

[JabooFootball]

I'm not a pro but I wouldn't be surprised if UM vs Wake closed at 24.

[frogsrangers]

Texas will be a big public dog this weekend. Tread carefully. As the board's resident TCU expert.... TCU has a Top 5 defense nationally based on efficiency metrics, yet their offense is terrible. They did demote their current OC after the OKlahoma State loss, so there will be a new play caller. Also keep in mind, TCU's 4 losses are all on the road to Top 25 teams, and were within 3 points in the 4th quarter in all the losses. So they have battled in their losses, just haven't been able to come up with a win. Maybe playing at home infront of an energized crowd against a big name team like Texas will turn it around for them.

[EzekielMowatt]

Line move in Houston's direction due to matchup - RU hasn't shown can defend a spread offense with its young secondary. RU still has injuries also. Houston got good pressure on QB vs BYU and book on NOva is he panics under pressure, watches the rush,not his receivers....
Play here could be over ,they might not set it high enough...i'll go over 55 and up, though suspect a 57

[Louisvillekid1]

Line move in Houston's direction due to matchup - RU hasn't shown can defend a spread offense with its young secondary. RU still has injuries also. Houston got good pressure on QB vs BYU and book on NOva is he panics under pressure, watches the rush,not his receivers....
Play here could be over ,they might not set it high enough...i'll go over 55 and up, though suspect a 57

solid point

[mikemca]

Keep an eye on Fluellen for Toledo.If he is out that should push the line BGs way more than it should.Hunt and Jones-Moore could be a pretty good 1-2 punch in their own right.Toledo has played a much tougher schedule so far while BG has padded its defensive stats against some so-so offenses.

[Killer_Demo]

3 units on Fresno State -9 1/2 strongest play for me this weekend

[GoBlue23]

Texas will be a big public dog this weekend. Tread carefully. As the board's resident TCU expert.... TCU has a Top 5 defense nationally based on efficiency metrics, yet their offense is terrible. They did demote their current OC after the OKlahoma State loss, so there will be a new play caller. Also keep in mind, TCU's 4 losses are all on the road to Top 25 teams, and were within 3 points in the 4th quarter in all the losses. So they have battled in their losses, just haven't been able to come up with a win. Maybe playing at home infront of an energized crowd against a big name team like Texas will turn it around for them.

They were never within 3 pts of OK ST after the 4 minute mark in the 1st quarter

I agree that TCU is worth a look this week though

[greenhippo]

Uh, Blue didn't you read that he is the resident TCU expert. If he says they were within a FG in the 4th of every game this season then they were. Guy isn't about to embarrass himself on these boards with his constant TCU talk if he wasn't 100% sure on that.

[curtrambus]

Nebraska game is my pick and my play of the week I bought it to -10 though but they will absolutely thump the Gophers. Huge talent gap and you can disregard the win against Northwestern. Injuries were and are huge for the Northwestern offense.

[JabooFootball]

I do like the nebraska game a lot. I think the Clemson -13.5 Maryland is an even stronger pick though.

[GoBlue23]

Uh, Blue didn't you read that he is the resident TCU expert. If he says they were within a FG in the 4th of every game this season then they were. Guy isn't about to embarrass himself on these boards with his constant TCU talk if he wasn't 100% sure on that.

How stupid of me

[RavensFan2k3]

Idk much about guessing the line movement, but why has Ball State gone down 2 points at Akron?

[Ralphie Halves]

Good lookin out on the Southwick injury fellas. Makes a lot more sense now.

[thetrinity]

seems like a good spot for washington to dismantle the pac 12 punching bag cal

[mikemca]

Idk much about guessing the line movement, but why has Ball State gone down 2 points at Akron?

I was thinking that too.That is one of the games that jumped out at me as the line should be Ball State -13 but it opened lower and is going Akrons way.If it keeps going that way I would think something is fishy.

[Louisvillekid1]

Good lookin out on the Southwick injury fellas. Makes a lot more sense now.

This is what the threads for

[erichog]

Agree

[Fred The Hammer]

Nebraska game is my pick and my play of the week I bought it to -10 though but they will absolutely thump the Gophers. Huge talent gap and you can disregard the win against Northwestern. Injuries were and are huge for the Northwestern offense.

Nebraska all day....they can't beat the big boys but Bo takes care of the scrubs as well as anyone....and Minn can't throw the ball to save their life.

[curtrambus]

I'd much rather have Martinez sit this week also. I locked in the bet a while ago but I'm hoping Armstrong starts.

[RavensFan2k3]

I was thinking that too.That is one of the games that jumped out at me as the line should be Ball State -13 but it opened lower and is going Akrons way.If it keeps going that way I would think something is fishy.

Yeah I may stay away...damn vegas line mind games

[Noles1992]

Damn thought for sure Nebraska would fly up. Did catch a nice one 'I hope" with TSA-3 'bought hook". over Uab.. up to 7 now.

[Louisvillekid1]

I am struggling to find plays I really like this week.

Rutgers is in a great spot
Louisville/USF should be low scoring but the 46.5 opener is a 9 points less than I was hoping for
Tulane as a home dog, boggles my mind.
The Big 12 dogs (Iowa St & Texas Tech look live, but just not in love with 'em)
Va Tech/Duke should go over (Strong Lean)
Nevada should roll (strong lean)
Is Mizzouri gonna win 3 in row against that competition?
UCF/Uconn should be low scoring as well (strong lean)

[Louisvillekid1]

30-14 + 24.51 units YTD

UL/USF u 46.5 1x
UCONN/UCF u 52.5 1x
Navy +6.5 1x
DUKE/VA TECH O 47.5 1x
Illinois +10 2x
Nevada -6 2x

Going to be a light, low risk week for me.

FINAL CARD MOST LIKELY

[RavensFan2k3]

30-14 + 24.51 units YTD

UL/USF u 46.5 1x
DUKE/VA TECH O 47.5 1x
UCONN/UCF u 52.5 1x
Nevada -6 2x

Going to be a light, low risk week for me.

Good to see you on Nevada as well!

[chunk]

Like that Illinois play. Lean to Navy too.

[Noles1992]

Nice Lkid got Nevada also. Going to jump on the Duke over with ya! GL!

[jimjones0320]

new member here.....thanks for all your hard work. I've watched for a while and you do an awesome job.

[747planes]

Louisvillekid, do you have any word on the qb for kent....is he back this week? And what about their punter/kicker?

I am looking at this game only because rudy posted kent as the play. I used tail rudy blindly back when he was legit but now he has lost all his credibility.