Hate to do it but time for my NFL pick of the yeaar

[peacebyinches]

As a Baltimore fan I hate to admit it, but Houston is not a bad play here. Baltimore is going to NEED some deep plays by Torrey Smith and Marlon Brown to pull off a W, which could happen of course, but I think Houston knows this and is going to try everything they can to put the lockdown on the deep passing game. Don't be surprised if Andre Johnson has a quiet day though, Ladarius Webb is a solid CB.

[jjgold]

Teaser in lots of these games
Mr Walker rarely is wrong on these

[blowseq]

Line says it all ! Baltimore wins this game by 4

[face]

this game is this guy walterfootball's game of the month, he's on ravens
think i would rather go with walker though
this from his webiste: not trying to spam walker's thread, just copy & pasting some discussion

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: "The Ravens can't score. Their offense stinks." That's the mindset most people have with Baltimore right now. Given that the team tallied 14 points versus Cleveland last week, it's a natural reaction.

However, I think the notion is inaccurate. The Ravens weren't that bad offensively last week - at least not in the second half. They had four real drives. Two ended up being touchdowns; one was interrupted by a Ray Rice fumble; while the fourth was ruined by a holding penalty. Baltimore didn't score in the first half, but Justin Tucker missed two field goals. It also must be noted that the Browns definitely have a top-10 defense in the NFL (if not top-five). So, given that Baltimore should have scored 20 points, I don't think that's too bad.

But what about Houston's defense? Can't they shut the Ravens down? Well, everyone knows of J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing, but the Texans have been a bit disappointing defensively this season. The linebackers, excluding Cushing, have played poorly, while there are some concerns in the secondary. Johnathan Joseph hasn't quite been himself, and the safeties have struggled at times.

It must be noted that Ray Rice could be out for this game, but I don't think that would downgrade Baltimore's offense at all. Bernard Pierce is a fantastic runner and will be able to fill in nicely.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Rice has the prominent injury in this matchup, but the Texans have a pretty big one of their own. Stud left tackle Duane Brown has turf toe and could miss this contest. If so, backup Ryan Harris will be asked to block Terrell Suggs.

This is just yet another problem the Texans have with their scoring unit. The front line isn't blocking very well, as left guard Wade Smith and right tackle Derek Newton have both been liabilities. It also hurts Houston that the coaching staff is stubborn and refuses to utilize the top running back on the roster. Ben Tate is playing so much better than Arian Foster right now; thanks to multiple injuries and a huge workload, Foster looks like a shell of his former self.

Because of these issues, Houston has had a tough time sustaining drives this season, save for the second half against San Diego. And here's the thing - the Chargers and Titans don't have great stop units. Baltimore maintains a much better defense than San Diego and Tennessee, so the Texans should continue to have problems scoring.

RECAP: This is my September NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Ravens for the following reasons:

1. This spread makes absolutely zero sense. Texans -2.5 at Ravens would translate to Texans -8.5 at home versus Ravens. Houston was -8 over Tennessee, so this is saying that the Titans are a half point better than Baltimore. What?

2. That brings me to the misconception the public has of these two teams. Average bettors think the Ravens are garbage because they can't score, but as noted above, that's simply not true. Baltimore put together some quality drives against a tough Cleveland defense last week. In the opener, the Ravens struggled because Michael Oher suffered an injury, and the coaching staff couldn't adjust for a fifth-round rookie tackle blocking Shaun Phillips. Baltimore has a great defense and a solid running attack, even if Rice is out.

Meanwhile, the Texans could very easily be 0-2. They needed a crazy comeback and help from the officials to beat the Chargers. They then were trailing in the second half at home against the Titans. Why are they road favorites against a decent team?

I have Houston and Baltimore Nos. 7 and 11 in my NFL Power Rankings. The Texans are slightly better, so my calculated line would normally be maybe Ravens -2. So, why is it -3.5? Read on...

3. The Texans just won in overtime. Home teams that prevail in an extra session and then have to travel usually struggle in terms of covering.

4. The Ravens have a pretty strong homefield advantage. They're a ridiculous 24-3 as hosts since 2010, with only the Packers (25-3) maintaining a better record in that span. Two of the three defeats have been to the rival Steelers, who know how to play in Baltimore, while the other was to Peyton Manning last year. Last time I checked, Matt Schaub was no Peyton Manning.

5. This is a big revenge game. Houston beat Baltimore last year, 43-13. Do you think a prideful team like the Ravens will let something like that go? The Texans were obviously not 30 points better than Baltimore last year, so what happened? Well, that was the first game in which Ray Lewis was out. Suggs happened to return from an Achilles that contest, but he wasn't himself quite yet. The Ravens were simply out of sorts, while Houston was out for blood after losing to Baltimore in the playoffs the year before. Well, it's the Ravens' turn for vengeance.

6. While the Ravens will be hyped up to get a victory here, the Texans don't really need this game. They're 2-0 right now. Following this contest, they have to deal with the 49ers and Seahawks. Those are non-conference foes, but they're perceived to be the top teams in the NFL (perhaps aside from Denver). Houston may have one eye on those two tilts.

7. Home underdogs seem to be the way to go this season. It's a small sample size, but thus far, they're 6-3 against the spread.

8. There's a great trend that supports the Ravens: Home underdogs who will be road favorites (Baltimore is at Buffalo next week) are fantastic bets in between Weeks 2-10: They were 61-26 against the spread since 1989 (that's how far back my records go).


The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
The Ravens are out for revenge.


The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
A bit of action on the road favorite.
Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (6,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
See Ravens trend above.
Opening Line: Texans -2.5.
Opening Total: 44.5.
Weather: .


Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 17
Ravens +2.5 (7 Units - September NFL Pick of the Month)

[SBR_John]

He makes some good points and glosses over those that don't fit the narrative.

He claims they did not generate any offense against Cleveland because Cleveland has a top 10 defense and suggests they are a top 5 defense. The Texans have a much better defense than the Browns. His stats angle goes back to 1989 so he gives that angle to the ravens, my stats angle goes back 2 years where Hou is 2-0 ATS including LY's beat down. But he is right its a public kind of play. That's why they call it gambling instead of di rect deposiit.

[opie1988]

Tailing here, Johnny.

Don't fukk me here, pal.

We're both old guys with young kids. We need this play.

[EzekielMowatt]

Face, re:WalterFootball, what do you thnk of his stuff? I think he puts his time in and worth reading each week. I knew about his fantasy stuff, just noticed his capping this year. Interesting read each week anyway.

[LT Profits]

Rice is no longer limping, so now looks like he will play if he responds to treatment.

[LT Profits]

this game is this guy walterfootball's game of the month, he's on ravens
think i would rather go with walker though
this from his webiste: not trying to spam walker's thread, just copy & pasting some discussion

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: "The Ravens can't score. Their offense stinks." That's the mindset most people have with Baltimore right now. Given that the team tallied 14 points versus Cleveland last week, it's a natural reaction.

However, I think the notion is inaccurate. The Ravens weren't that bad offensively last week - at least not in the second half. They had four real drives. Two ended up being touchdowns; one was interrupted by a Ray Rice fumble; while the fourth was ruined by a holding penalty. Baltimore didn't score in the first half, but Justin Tucker missed two field goals. It also must be noted that the Browns definitely have a top-10 defense in the NFL (if not top-five). So, given that Baltimore should have scored 20 points, I don't think that's too bad.

But what about Houston's defense? Can't they shut the Ravens down? Well, everyone knows of J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing, but the Texans have been a bit disappointing defensively this season. The linebackers, excluding Cushing, have played poorly, while there are some concerns in the secondary. Johnathan Joseph hasn't quite been himself, and the safeties have struggled at times.

It must be noted that Ray Rice could be out for this game, but I don't think that would downgrade Baltimore's offense at all. Bernard Pierce is a fantastic runner and will be able to fill in nicely.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Rice has the prominent injury in this matchup, but the Texans have a pretty big one of their own. Stud left tackle Duane Brown has turf toe and could miss this contest. If so, backup Ryan Harris will be asked to block Terrell Suggs.

This is just yet another problem the Texans have with their scoring unit. The front line isn't blocking very well, as left guard Wade Smith and right tackle Derek Newton have both been liabilities. It also hurts Houston that the coaching staff is stubborn and refuses to utilize the top running back on the roster. Ben Tate is playing so much better than Arian Foster right now; thanks to multiple injuries and a huge workload, Foster looks like a shell of his former self.

Because of these issues, Houston has had a tough time sustaining drives this season, save for the second half against San Diego. And here's the thing - the Chargers and Titans don't have great stop units. Baltimore maintains a much better defense than San Diego and Tennessee, so the Texans should continue to have problems scoring.

RECAP: This is my September NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Ravens for the following reasons:

1. This spread makes absolutely zero sense. Texans -2.5 at Ravens would translate to Texans -8.5 at home versus Ravens. Houston was -8 over Tennessee, so this is saying that the Titans are a half point better than Baltimore. What?

2. That brings me to the misconception the public has of these two teams. Average bettors think the Ravens are garbage because they can't score, but as noted above, that's simply not true. Baltimore put together some quality drives against a tough Cleveland defense last week. In the opener, the Ravens struggled because Michael Oher suffered an injury, and the coaching staff couldn't adjust for a fifth-round rookie tackle blocking Shaun Phillips. Baltimore has a great defense and a solid running attack, even if Rice is out.

Meanwhile, the Texans could very easily be 0-2. They needed a crazy comeback and help from the officials to beat the Chargers. They then were trailing in the second half at home against the Titans. Why are they road favorites against a decent team?

I have Houston and Baltimore Nos. 7 and 11 in my NFL Power Rankings. The Texans are slightly better, so my calculated line would normally be maybe Ravens -2. So, why is it -3.5? Read on...

3. The Texans just won in overtime. Home teams that prevail in an extra session and then have to travel usually struggle in terms of covering.

4. The Ravens have a pretty strong homefield advantage. They're a ridiculous 24-3 as hosts since 2010, with only the Packers (25-3) maintaining a better record in that span. Two of the three defeats have been to the rival Steelers, who know how to play in Baltimore, while the other was to Peyton Manning last year. Last time I checked, Matt Schaub was no Peyton Manning.

5. This is a big revenge game. Houston beat Baltimore last year, 43-13. Do you think a prideful team like the Ravens will let something like that go? The Texans were obviously not 30 points better than Baltimore last year, so what happened? Well, that was the first game in which Ray Lewis was out. Suggs happened to return from an Achilles that contest, but he wasn't himself quite yet. The Ravens were simply out of sorts, while Houston was out for blood after losing to Baltimore in the playoffs the year before. Well, it's the Ravens' turn for vengeance.

6. While the Ravens will be hyped up to get a victory here, the Texans don't really need this game. They're 2-0 right now. Following this contest, they have to deal with the 49ers and Seahawks. Those are non-conference foes, but they're perceived to be the top teams in the NFL (perhaps aside from Denver). Houston may have one eye on those two tilts.

7. Home underdogs seem to be the way to go this season. It's a small sample size, but thus far, they're 6-3 against the spread.

8. There's a great trend that supports the Ravens: Home underdogs who will be road favorites (Baltimore is at Buffalo next week) are fantastic bets in between Weeks 2-10: They were 61-26 against the spread since 1989 (that's how far back my records go).


The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
The Ravens are out for revenge.


The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
A bit of action on the road favorite.
Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (6,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
See Ravens trend above.
Opening Line: Texans -2.5.
Opening Total: 44.5.
Weather: .


Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 17
Ravens +2.5 (7 Units - September NFL Pick of the Month)

I know walter quite well and he is stubborn in his ways. He used to be one of the very BEST free NFL cappers on the net, but he has not changed his capping style in like 20 years while the game on the field has changed, and he often rehashes the same old trends and outdated "thoughts" to justify his plays every week. Got away with it for the most part until a lousy year last season.

[LT Profits]

I know walter quite well and he is stubborn in his ways. He used to be one of the very BEST free NFL cappers on the net, but he has not changed his capping style in like 20 years while the game on the field has changed, and he often rehashes the same old trends and outdated "thoughts" to justify his plays every week. Got away with it for the most part until a lousy year last season.

And I just saw he is 10-21 the first two weeks, although he did eke out a small profit with a 6-10 Week 2.

[pavyracer]

Houston had to rally for a win in the last minutes in both wins. I guess they have a rabbit's foot because I can't see them doing this to Ravens if they are behind in the 4th quarter.

[etothep]

Texans LT Duane Brown (toe) will be a game-time decision for Week 3 at Baltimore

[Microphone]

BOL John. No opinion here....yet.

[Sarunas]

is many dangers here. whys? don't make ask why. is nfl! game have ten diffrent winner in last quarter by self

who make bet against? team wins superbowl. what have? one best quearterbck, one best coach, one best runnings back.

theys make sideways line on game. whys? becawse not is rich advantage to make find in any of places



mans make the wagers for the excitements. here man make the wager for the excitements. if wins, that not goal. the wager make here is for the excitements. goal not for the wins of monies


but! if make excitements and make the wins of monies this best than just make the win!


want make wager with advantage? make the wager on texas am over points 78.5.

[Sam Odom]

Walker should stick with NCAAFB ...

[face]

Face, re:WalterFootball, what do you thnk of his stuff? I think he puts his time in and worth reading each week. I knew about his fantasy stuff, just noticed his capping this year. Interesting read each week anyway.

yes, same as you, interesting read, but take w/ a grain of salt
a few years ago was different, he was really good

I know walter quite well and he is stubborn in his ways. He used to be one of the very BEST free NFL cappers on the net, but he has not changed his capping style in like 20 years while the game on the field has changed, and he often rehashes the same old trends and outdated "thoughts" to justify his plays every week. Got away with it for the most part until a lousy year last season.

And I just saw he is 10-21 the first two weeks, although he did eke out a small profit with a 6-10 Week 2.

he might be off this year too. it's good you posted that
that's cool you know him, seems like a nice guy
keeps a record, lists reasons, used to win

[Sam Odom]

he might be off this year too. it's good you posted that

NFL But... He is an auto tail in college football

[jjgold]

Walker should stick with NCAAFB ...

Sammy delete that post before he sees it
He can make things very difficult for you onshore and offshore

[Sam Odom]

Sammy delete that post before he sees it

He can make things very difficult for you onshore and offshore

Actually it is a compliment ... Johnny is (or was) golden in his NCAAFB picks

[The Giant]

you don't care both of the balty rbs are gimpy?

[pologq]

i think they want you to take the super bowl champs at home getting points. the play is the texans because they are just plain better. i do not like the ravens offense and with a hurt rice i dont see them scoring a lot. i think the texans can still put up 28 points and win 28-13.

[oldscho0led]

Line almost at pk

[Sarunas]

maybes has the inside information on game? maybes he make knowledge from referee that make do fix on game?

so with knowledges can have know in advancement that houston destroy enemy and put sexual milks all over them and make high scoreboard with the large win!

is other to hypothesee!

[R.P. McMurphy]

Sarunas that was quite possibly the most sloppy fukkin mess I have ever tried to read! Lean Texas here even tho I have a hard time backing them ecs on the road. For years now this has been one of the Nfl's most overrated teams. However the Ravens lack of punch on offense is a great concern and if Rice is not right Texans should roll for sure. Gl

[No coincidences]

Texans -1 now. Baltimore got hammered.

You fvcking with us JW? Trying to get everyone to take the Texans?

[cankid]

Gl sir and thx for posting!!

[pavyracer]

Looking iffy so far.

[ttwarrior1]

how much did john have on this? and where are the in game threads

[opie1988]

I should kill this son-of-a-bitch OP.

Fukk me.

[Sam Odom]

Did Jon Book this bet for John ?

If so... Walker is covered

[ThaTopMoron]

worst "play of year" NFL spot bet I've ever seen

same goes for guys who said their biggest play of season so far was on either Redskins or Lions in a Pk game

I'm gonna make my first play of year on the Bills Jets game...

[Sarunas]

I make loose all my wagering. so you make better than I make

american football make like a penetrate in hole of ass roulet!

[Sam Odom]

I make loose all my wagering. so you make better than I make

american football make like a penetrate in hole of ass roulet!

What he said...

[R.P. McMurphy]

Like I said Houston an overrated team as always Falcunts are another take notes boys!

[No coincidences]

Looks like the line is about to move to +3. If you want Balt I'd wait until game time or grab a some the first time you see a +3. Books would rather gouge out an eyeball than cross 3 these days.

Scary how off he was on this game, unless -- like I said -- he was trying to get us to take the Houston bait. Ravens closed at -1.5.