Doughboy22 Playoff thread.. Killing it!! AHHHHH

[Bigmoney20]

Lets get it DB!!!!thanks for post ahhhhhhh!!!

[Dollars2Donuts]

34-17
bulls/heat under 186.5
Spurs +2


GL GANG POUND EM

Aaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh

holy crap! We are on the same games!! GL GL

[FoxMulder]

I think both games will go over. good luck

[Doughboy22]

I think both games will go over. good luck

GL with that bro

[Smoke]

i'm on the warriors tonight

the oracle will be a rockin and spurs are old and slow

[Doughboy22]

i'm on the warriors tonight

the oracle will be a rockin and spurs are old and slow

Smoke spurs are the play

Smoke spurs have young guys too

Smoke spurs are really deep

Smoke I hope it's a push I don't want either of us to lose

[dcrews]

They dominated SA on the road and only lost bc of a random collapse. They dominated SA in game 2.

Now they're at home. While the Spurs do play well on the road, I can't bring myself to bet against GS(-2).

Let's go Warriors.

[Renegades]

Miami headed to 100. Need the spurs for a split.

[Renegades]

Smells like reversion to the mean...

[BBall Bet]

34-17
bulls/heat under 186.5
Spurs +2


GL GANG POUND EM

Aaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh

My predictive model have the same outcome. Hope we're both right. Good luck.

[BBall Bet]

It is now over 187.5 / Good luck on the next bet.

[FoxMulder]

over it is

[BBall Bet]

i'm on the warriors tonight

the oracle will be a rockin and spurs are old and slow

You lost bro.

[BBall Bet]

I am 3-1 today:

Spurs ML - Win
Spurs +2 - Win
Under 204 (Spurs vs Warriors) - Win
Under 187.5 (Bulls vs Heat) - Lost

[19th Hole]

I am 3-1 today:

Spurs ML - Win
Spurs +2 - Win
Under 204 (Spurs vs Warriors) - Win
Under 187.5 (Bulls vs Heat) - Lost

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Where was it posted??

I know that you chimed in about "your" model...
but it's all shenanigans w/o your thread pardner.

[BBall Bet]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Where was it posted??

I know that you chimed in about "your" model...
but it's all shenanigans w/o your thread pardner.

Three of them are Spurs correlated bets, and the other which is not is a lost, so I'm not sure what you're asking?
Do you want me to email you my winning tickets "pardner?" On the other hand, hold that thought, are you a troll "pardner?"

"My model," as you so sarcastically put it, is a rudimentary program that I've written for the NBA playoffs, here are the features:

- simulate two team SIDE COVERS playing against each
- feed the database new data after every game, so this is a PER GAME simulator, NOT for series
- the first team to win after 1000 games will score 1 point
- best of 5 points to best of 7 points, depending on how close the tally

Example: May 10, 2013 Game, Spurs vs Warriors
- each game has random variables like: what if Curry has a hot shooting night? What if Spurs has more offensive rebound? And so forth and so on, the variables changing per simulation game.

Simulation 1 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 2 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 3 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 4 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 5 Winner (After 1000 Games): Warriors -2

Final Tally: Spurs 4 POINTS vs Warriors 1 POINT (Spurs have 80% chance of winning)

Simulation 6 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 7 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2

I run it two more times, and the clear cut winner is Spurs for May 10.

So my bet was Spurs+2. I also took the correlated Spurs ML because 3 points or less is good for ML, and the under totals because it's correlated. Sadly my local bookie does not allow correlated parlay, so it's all single bets.

Program Weakness: Totals

This simulator is for sides only. To predict the totals, i interpret the data using correlation

- is the winning team defensive? then under.
- is the winning team offensive? then over.

I found this a weakness, because it relies on a single human to watch many many NBA games.
More times than not my totals will be wrong, because I spend my time elsewhere.

An example of scenarios, where humans intuition is required:
- what if the tally is close but the winning team is offensive?
Did the defensive team kept it close, or the offensive team makes a late rally?
- what if both teams are offensive or defensive?

A good example of this weakness is the recent HEAT vs BULLS game.
The simulator result is HEAT 4 vs BULLS 3. Normally, tally this close is an automatic pass. But I gambled, the obvious choice is over because the winning team is offensive. But wait! Maybe the game is close because the Bulls plays defense? I choose the latter, as you know the game went over and I lost.

This program wasn't built for totals.

Future improvements

Is it scalable for many picks per day? Probably, but time consuming. Simulating a match-up already requires a dedicated computer working a few hours with constant data feeding and harvesting. With multiple games, it will require many farm boxes and hiring an employee. Will I do it? No, because this is a spare time one-man project.

Is the program alpha? No. It's an early beta, and lack many variables. For example I didn't quantify the week long layoffs that led to the ring rust for both the Heat and Spurs during game 1 of round 2 playoffs. Putting the days rest performance was missing so I lost bets on that one.

By the way, Shenanigans using correlated bets is good if you can find a bookie who allows it.

[Smoke]

You lost bro.

so did you kiddo

[swordsandtequila]

Three of them are Spurs correlated bets, and the other which is not is a lost, so I'm not sure what you're asking?
Do you want me to email you my winning tickets "pardner?" On the other hand, hold that thought, are you a troll "pardner?"

He's saying post your picks pregame. Claiming winners after the fact without posting beforehand is meaningless. That's all. Not trolling, not saying you didn't win.

[BBall Bet]

He's saying post your picks pregame. Claiming winners after the fact without posting beforehand is meaningless. That's all. Not trolling, not saying you didn't win.

I have a bunch of pregame threads in SBR buddy, no one responds to them.
The most popular threads at NBA are winning streaks, upsets, losing streaks, and long-time posters. So, why bother.

And oh by the way, my response to Dough is pregame:

"My predictive model have the same outcome. Hope we're both right. Good luck."

[stilltharow]

what you got for todays game? (bbet)

[Reek's bathwater]

Three of them are Spurs correlated bets, and the other which is not is a lost, so I'm not sure what you're asking?
Do you want me to email you my winning tickets "pardner?" On the other hand, hold that thought, are you a troll "pardner?"

"My model," as you so sarcastically put it, is a rudimentary program that I've written for the NBA playoffs, here are the features:

- simulate two team SIDE COVERS playing against each
- feed the database new data after every game, so this is a PER GAME simulator, NOT for series
- the first team to win after 1000 games will score 1 point
- best of 5 points to best of 7 points, depending on how close the tally

Example: May 10, 2013 Game, Spurs vs Warriors
- each game has random variables like: what if Curry has a hot shooting night? What if Spurs has more offensive rebound? And so forth and so on, the variables changing per simulation game.

Simulation 1 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 2 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 3 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 4 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 5 Winner (After 1000 Games): Warriors -2

Final Tally: Spurs 4 POINTS vs Warriors 1 POINT (Spurs have 80% chance of winning)

Simulation 6 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 7 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2

I run it two more times, and the clear cut winner is Spurs for May 10.

So my bet was Spurs+2. I also took the correlated Spurs ML because 3 points or less is good for ML, and the under totals because it's correlated. Sadly my local bookie does not allow correlated parlay, so it's all single bets.

Program Weakness: Totals

This simulator is for sides only. To predict the totals, i interpret the data using correlation

- is the winning team defensive? then under.
- is the winning team offensive? then over.

I found this a weakness, because it relies on a single human to watch many many NBA games.
More times than not my totals will be wrong, because I spend my time elsewhere.

An example of scenarios, where humans intuition is required:
- what if the tally is close but the winning team is offensive?
Did the defensive team kept it close, or the offensive team makes a late rally?
- what if both teams are offensive or defensive?

A good example of this weakness is the recent HEAT vs BULLS game.
The simulator result is HEAT 4 vs BULLS 3. Normally, tally this close is an automatic pass. But I gambled, the obvious choice is over because the winning team is offensive. But wait! Maybe the game is close because the Bulls plays defense? I choose the latter, as you know the game went over and I lost.

This program wasn't built for totals.

Future improvements

Is it scalable for many picks per day? Probably, but time consuming. Simulating a match-up already requires a dedicated computer working a few hours with constant data feeding and harvesting. With multiple games, it will require many farm boxes and hiring an employee. Will I do it? No, because this is a spare time one-man project.

Is the program alpha? No. It's an early beta, and lack many variables. For example I didn't quantify the week long layoffs that led to the ring rust for both the Heat and Spurs during game 1 of round 2 playoffs. Putting the days rest performance was missing so I lost bets on that one.

By the way, Shenanigans using correlated bets is good if you can find a bookie who allows it.

Good job on the 3-1. You seem to have an interesting model. You should open your own thread for it.

[Bostongambler]

Three of them are Spurs correlated bets, and the other which is not is a lost, so I'm not sure what you're asking?
Do you want me to email you my winning tickets "pardner?" On the other hand, hold that thought, are you a troll "pardner?"

"My model," as you so sarcastically put it, is a rudimentary program that I've written for the NBA playoffs, here are the features:

- simulate two team SIDE COVERS playing against each
- feed the database new data after every game, so this is a PER GAME simulator, NOT for series
- the first team to win after 1000 games will score 1 point
- best of 5 points to best of 7 points, depending on how close the tally

Example: May 10, 2013 Game, Spurs vs Warriors
- each game has random variables like: what if Curry has a hot shooting night? What if Spurs has more offensive rebound? And so forth and so on, the variables changing per simulation game.

Simulation 1 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 2 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 3 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 4 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 5 Winner (After 1000 Games): Warriors -2

Final Tally: Spurs 4 POINTS vs Warriors 1 POINT (Spurs have 80% chance of winning)

Simulation 6 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2
Simulation 7 Winner (After 1000 Games): Spurs +2

I run it two more times, and the clear cut winner is Spurs for May 10.

So my bet was Spurs+2. I also took the correlated Spurs ML because 3 points or less is good for ML, and the under totals because it's correlated. Sadly my local bookie does not allow correlated parlay, so it's all single bets.

Program Weakness: Totals

This simulator is for sides only. To predict the totals, i interpret the data using correlation

- is the winning team defensive? then under.
- is the winning team offensive? then over.

I found this a weakness, because it relies on a single human to watch many many NBA games.
More times than not my totals will be wrong, because I spend my time elsewhere.

An example of scenarios, where humans intuition is required:
- what if the tally is close but the winning team is offensive?
Did the defensive team kept it close, or the offensive team makes a late rally?
- what if both teams are offensive or defensive?

A good example of this weakness is the recent HEAT vs BULLS game.
The simulator result is HEAT 4 vs BULLS 3. Normally, tally this close is an automatic pass. But I gambled, the obvious choice is over because the winning team is offensive. But wait! Maybe the game is close because the Bulls plays defense? I choose the latter, as you know the game went over and I lost.

This program wasn't built for totals.

Future improvements

Is it scalable for many picks per day? Probably, but time consuming. Simulating a match-up already requires a dedicated computer working a few hours with constant data feeding and harvesting. With multiple games, it will require many farm boxes and hiring an employee. Will I do it? No, because this is a spare time one-man project.

Is the program alpha? No. It's an early beta, and lack many variables. For example I didn't quantify the week long layoffs that led to the ring rust for both the Heat and Spurs during game 1 of round 2 playoffs. Putting the days rest performance was missing so I lost bets on that one.

By the way, Shenanigans using correlated bets is good if you can find a bookie who allows it.

Why not start your own thread then, rather than jump into this one.

And as far as you emailing him your winning tickets, what does that proove. I could go 2-8 and then after the game say I went 2-0 and just email my winning tickets. What about ur 8 losses?

[Bigmoney20]

Ight DB went 1-1 yesterday not bad....lets go 2-0 and killem today!!!....i wanna win some big money today!!!!...post your picks early today maybe around 1130 or 12 DB...just askin...ahhhhhhh!!!!!!!

[Doughboy22]

Ok fellas 1-1 yesterday we are 35-18. Bball go do ur own thing somewhere else and stop cluttering my thread with ur like long posts. In other words fuk off!!
Okc/Memphis over 187.5
knicks +4.5

Over Knicks/pacers 183

GL GANG POUND EM

Aaaaaaahhhhhhh

[Doughboy22]

Why not start your own thread then, rather than jump into this one.

And as far as you emailing him your winning tickets, what does that proove. I could go 2-8 and then after the game say I went 2-0 and just email my winning tickets. What about ur 8 losses?

Yes this

[stilltharow]

doughy u still think it will go over 181, im late betting...

[O]

doughy u still think it will go over 181, im late betting...

I doubt he does..... he bet over 187.5 because he likes to lose.

[Renegades]

It will land on 184

[iWin]

Tailed you on Knicks. Good luck!

[Kermit]

Ok fellas 1-1 yesterday we are 35-18. Bball go do ur own thing somewhere else and stop cluttering my thread with ur like long posts. In other words fuk off!!
Okc/Memphis over 187.5
knicks +4.5

Over Knicks/pacers 183

GL GANG POUND EM

Aaaaaaahhhhhhh

I think this one gets around 195 tonight. My biggest play of the playoffs.

[amrit]

Kermit you're referring to the Indiana game right?

[Kermit]

Kermit you're referring to the Indiana game right?

Yes.

[amrit]

I'm on it for 5 units as well....I'm curious as to why the total has remained steady, while the public is heavily on the over though.

[Kermit]

Got $300 and change on the over and $75 on the first quarter over 46

[Reek's bathwater]

I might have a gambling problem.

Got the over.
Knicks +4 1/2
Knicks ML +165
Knicks alternate line -2 1/2 +240

I will end the day loving or hating the Knicks.