Is it time to take the other side?

[tto827]

I've got two units on the Washington Huskies -135, and 1 unit on a 5/1 parlay with Washington ML to close it.

Thinking about taking Washington St. now that its moved all the way to +3.

What's everyone's thoughts? Would you just let it ride? If you take Washington St. how much do you put on it? Do you just take Wash St ML now that its +140 or better (I have no desire to do this, not enough money on it for this to be worthwhile)

[tto827]

Nobody?

Wow.

Is -135 ML and +3 -110 on the other side +EV?

You'd think these are the kind of things that ought to start a decent discussion on a gambling forum.

[InTheDrink]

tto settle down pal

tto i like udub so id let it ride

tto i can definitely see playing one unit on wazzou ML to get your money back if they win....3 point line you could try to middle but if you were hedging (and apparently you dont want to) id take the chance on the +140

[MoneyLineDawg]

In game live hedging or halftime if live isn't offered

[mcduggly]

So the only way you make money is if you middle? I haven't followed the line of this game, but it seems -EV to me if the only way you can cash is if you middle it.

[InTheDrink]

So the only way you make money is if you middle? I haven't followed the line of this game, but it seems -EV to me if the only way you can cash is if you middle it.

this is the only thing he ought to be even thinking about hedging....so the play could be wazzou ml +140 or -110 +3 to hedge

1 unit on a 5/1 parlay with Washington ML to close it

[tto827]

Opened at -1 or -1.5 Duggly. I'd hedge where I still make a profit on Washington winning, and if the middle falls, well then thats perfect.

And MLD, what if Washington St. gets off to a hot start and never looks back, in game betting can give you opportunities for middles/hedges etc. but I don't think you should ever rely on it.

Drinker, I'm thinking a 2 pt. UW win would be nice for all involved. Don't really care if no one responded, just think it sort of shows the people we've got at SBR and the gambling/intellect level. Fun, but serious $$ making discussion seems to be almost non-existant.

[BigDeem5]

Let it fukin ride, tto

[InTheDrink]

tto settle down i just like saying settle down

tto i can see both angles and i suppose taking the points is probably the correct play since its the only way you can win both bets but yeah like i said i like udub so id roll with it but thats just me

[mcduggly]

Opened at -1 or -1.5 Duggly. I'd hedge where I still make a profit on Washington winning, and if the middle falls, well then thats perfect.

And MLD, what if Washington St. gets off to a hot start and never looks back, in game betting can give you opportunities for middles/hedges etc. but I don't think you should ever rely on it.

Drinker, I'm thinking a 2 pt. UW win would be nice for all involved. Don't really care if no one responded, just think it sort of shows the people we've got at SBR and the gambling/intellect level. Fun, but serious $$ making discussion seems to be almost non-existant.

I actually spent the day looking for somewhere that actually has guys that talk seriously about sports and betting, but there literally are none. Bunch of fukking idiots on the internet.

[tto827]

Anyone know where I can find the push percentages for NCAA hoops?

I'm guessing -135 ML and +3 -110 are slightly +EV given the likelihood of a game landing at 1,2 or 3.

[tto827]

I actually spent the day looking for somewhere that actually has guys that talk seriously about sports and betting, but there literally are none. Bunch of fukking idiots on the internet.

Again, it hurts me inside to say it, but across the street you get some good convos that pop up at least occasionally. Like wantitall4moi's thread regarding the Spurs/OKC lines, and his percentages of the game landing at 1,2 or 3. He posts here occasionally, and may not be a genius, but at least it gets the talk started.

[mbs4]

Anyone know where I can find the push percentages for NCAA hoops?

I'm guessing -135 ML and +3 -110 are slightly +EV given the likelihood of a game landing at 1,2 or 3.

You could use SBR's half point calculator but I'd let it ride.

[tto827]

You could use SBR's half point calculator but I'd let it ride.

Thanks.

Checked it out, really all it tells is that at +3 -110 when moved to a pk'em that the dog would be +137 and the fav -165 or so, which is reflected by the current moneyline.

Still need to know push percentages to get a mathematical answer.

[mbs4]

Thanks.

Checked it out, really all it tells is that at +3 -110 when moved to a pk'em that the dog would be +137 and the fav -165 or so, which is reflected by the current moneyline.

Still need to know push percentages to get a mathematical answer.

So according to what you posted, it'd be a 2 cent scalp. Of course the HPC probably has more error than that so probably not worth it. You could get +3.5 though.

[tto827]

So according to what you posted, it'd be a 2 cent scalp. Of course the HPC probably has more error than that so probably not worth it. You could get +3.5 though.

Thanks again. Saw that I can get 3.5 some spots now. Figured that's what it meant, hadn't tried using the HPC before.

[mcduggly]

What'd you end up doing?

[tto827]

Waiting as long as possible to see if I can get 3.5, I don't currently have funds anywhere offering 3.5.


Going to take some on +3, will take more if I see 3.5, but I doubt I will, most just moved a bit the other way actually.

[MoneyLineDawg]

\

And MLD, what if Washington St. gets off to a hot start and never looks back, in game betting can give you opportunities for middles/hedges etc. but I don't think you should ever rely on it.

Then you just say fukk it and move on.....There's a reason you liked Washington to begin with, go with your gut and if a nice opportunity presents itself, well then so be it

[tto827]

I've got $156 to win $333 on washington ML in total.

Took State +3 -110 to win $100.

Lose $46 if State wins

Win $233 if Huskies win by more than 4.

Win $333 if Huskies win by 3.

Win $433 if Huskies win by 1 or 2.

[InTheDrink]

Then you just say fukk it and move on.....There's a reason you liked Washington to begin with, go with your gut and if a nice opportunity presents itself, well then so be it

i've never understood this....if the game is going the way you expected you play the live line the other way? i cant imagine theres data that says thats a smart play?

[MoneyLineDawg]

i've never understood this....if the game is going the way you expected you play the live line the other way? i cant imagine theres data that says thats a smart play?

Every situation is different.....Just gotta find value like if Washington just went on a big run and you wanna try to hit both sides if they are offering a huge middle live

[tto827]

i've never understood this....if the game is going the way you expected you play the live line the other way? i cant imagine theres data that says thats a smart play?

It's the same as this situation Drink.

Since I BTCL by 30 cents, we can assume my Wash ML was +EV, so this is basically a 0 vig, or even negative vig bet at this point.

I am paying vig on the hedge, be it live or pre-game. So unless the hedge is +EV itself, it is a poor decision. But just like this, there are times it is smart, and times it isn't.

[rcene]

Plenty of data supports it.

So many points are random in the closing minutes, that it effects value.

Best approach is to always look for an edge with the live betting or half time spreads

[rcene]

Every situation is different.....Just gotta find value like if Washington just went on a big run and you wanna try to hit both sides if they are offering a huge middle live

That is exactly right.

Too many guys that do not take it serious enough to find the edges.

It is understandable if a guy has 20 bucks riding and does not care if he wins or loses, but for a sharp bettor there are many ways to make money.

Especially in the live lines

[mbs4]

Plenty of data supports it.

So many points are random in the closing minutes, that it effects value.

Best approach is to always look for an edge with the live betting or half time spreads

Other than 2nd half data, is any of this data publicly available?

[tto827]

That is exactly right.

Too many guys that do not take it serious enough to find the edges.

It is understandable if a guy has 20 bucks riding and does not care if he wins or loses, but for a sharp bettor there are many ways to make money.

Especially in the live lines

But the value in that live play is there regardless. There is never a point in which a play is +ev as a middle opportunity, yet -ev as a play by itself, assuming the first play is already locked in.

[mbs4]

It's the same as this situation Drink.

Since I BTCL by 30 cents, we can assume my Wash ML was +EV, so this is basically a 0 vig, or even negative vig bet at this point.

I am paying vig on the hedge, be it live or pre-game. So unless the hedge is +EV itself, it is a poor decision. But just like this, there are times it is smart, and times it isn't.

With a live bet, there is significant information available that was not available pregame.

[tto827]

With a live bet, there is significant information available that was not available pregame.

Understood, but a play either has value, or doesn't. Regardless of what your initial position was on a game.

I'm not saying in game betting is bad, there is likely a lot more value live, hence why books deal a higher vig cause they know its beatable.

[mbs4]

Understood, but a play either has value, or doesn't. Regardless of what your initial position was on a game.

I'm not saying in game betting is bad, there is likely a lot more value live, hence why books deal a higher vig cause they know its beatable.

True but it's difficult to decide what has value in a live bet without data, which alludes to my question to rcene. Glad to see some conversation about beating books in PT. Good thread.

[InTheDrink]

Understood, but a play either has value, or doesn't. Regardless of what your initial position was on a game.

I'm not saying in game betting is bad, there is likely a lot more value live, hence why books deal a higher vig cause they know its beatable.

live betting is becoming more and more available....hell my local offers it on his pph now

either its just a flat out losing proposition at the high vigs as you mention or theres enough lowlifes who cant resist jumping in based on bad instincts that offsets those who understand it....either way it wouldnt be getting more and more available if it was producing winning plays and id say its the former of the two options

if theres live data id guess its generally factored into the live line

[tto827]

True but it's difficult to decide what has value in a live bet without data, which alludes to my question to rcene. Glad to see some conversation about beating books in PT. Good thread.

That was the primary goal here. Unless someone had mathematical data, I wasn't going to listen to people saying take this, do that, etc. Even though I do respect most of the people in here opinions.

And I agree 100%, that's why I rarely live bet, because I'm likely flipping a coin at worse odds.

[tto827]

live betting is becoming more and more available....hell my local offers it on his pph now

either its just a flat out losing proposition at the high vigs as you mention or theres enough lowlifes who cant resist jumping in based on bad instincts that offsets those who understand it....either way it wouldnt be getting more and more available if it was producing winning plays and id say its the former of the two options

if theres live data id guess its generally factored into the live line

Obviously books are making money on it. But it just isn't possible for them to be as sharp as game lines, sometimes you'll see a 2 point difference in live lines at major books, you never see that on a game.

The idiots far outnumber the smarties. Just cause there is money to be made, doesn't mean it is being made.

[mcduggly]

That was the primary goal here. Unless someone had mathematical data, I wasn't going to listen to people saying take this, do that, etc. Even though I do respect most of the people in here opinions.

And I agree 100%, that's why I rarely live bet, because I'm likely flipping a coin at worse odds.

But isn't there value when a team gets down early in a game and you "have" them coming back to win it by the end? That would be the only scenario (aside from a situation like yours) where I would use live betting and watch it like a hawk.

[tto827]

But isn't there value when a team gets down early in a game and you "have" them coming back to win it by the end? That would be the only scenario (aside from a situation like yours) where I would use live betting and watch it like a hawk.

If you are right about them coming back and winning then definitely. But if you bet them earlier, do you really want to tack more on? NBA games especially, early points mean very little.

And did you really expect them to be down early? Most of the time it comes out as almost a chase play, at least when I do it