Is it time to take the other side?

[mcduggly]

If you are right about them coming back and winning then definitely. But if you bet them earlier, do you really want to tack more on? NBA games especially, early points mean very little.

And did you really expect them to be down early? Most of the time it comes out as almost a chase play, at least when I do it

Not necessarily. Like today in the Syracuse/Seton Hall game, with like 10 minutes left in the 1st half, SH was sitting with a 10-point lead. Knowing that Syracuse was favored by double digit points, you had to assume that they were going to come back, so why not take them in-play? I have never bet live so I'm not sure what the line would have been at that point in the game since it was still fairly early, but I have to assume that it was better than the moneyline given before the game, right?

[tto827]

Not necessarily. Like today in the Syracuse/Seton Hall game, with like 10 minutes left in the 1st half, SH was sitting with a 10-point lead. Knowing that Syracuse was favored by double digit points, you had to assume that they were going to come back, so why not take them in-play? I have never bet live so I'm not sure what the line would have been at that point in the game since it was still fairly early, but I have to assume that it was better than the moneyline given before the game, right?

Yes it was better than that. It was likely accurately priced for the likelihood that Syracuse could overcome a 10 point deficit at that point in the game.

My guess is it was close to even money, heck maybe even worse than that.

[mcduggly]

Yes it was better than that. It was likely accurately priced for the likelihood that Syracuse could overcome a 10 point deficit at that point in the game.

My guess is it was close to even money, heck maybe even worse than that.

And I would have taken that all day long. I think that's considered value.

[tto827]

And I would have taken that all day long. I think that's considered value.

And in this case it was value. But bet every favorite who gets down DD early, and just like any system, you'll end up around 50% (against a standard evenly juiced spread) and down vig in the long run.

I'm not trying to say there isn't value live betting Duggly. Just saying that you're often looking at betting into -115 lines, and theoretically that's going to end up worse than betting into -105 lines pregame at 5dimes. Just like any sort of bet, if you pick your spots and win more often than the implied odds (given by the line with vig) then you are going to make money doing it.

[mbs4]

And I would have taken that all day long. I think that's considered value.

Value is unknown, only expected value can be estimated at the wager time.

[tto827]

[mcduggly]

Wait, so did you make the bet? If so, I'll root the middle in for you.

[tto827]

Ya, I threw a hundy on St +3

Thanks

[tto827]

15-0 run, unreal

[mcduggly]

In the money with 49 seconds to go.

[mcduggly]

22 seconds.

[tto827]

That turnover at 49 seconds worked out perfect. Then the missed shot by the Huskies, just hoping St shoots as time expires now.

[mcduggly]

You're in a great situation here with State having the ball and only 14 seconds left. They should hold for the last shot, so no free throws hopefully.

[mcduggly]

No they fouled!

[tto827]

Anyone know how to find out if its being inbounded, or 1-1, or 2 shots?

[tto827]

Not even in the bonus yet, c'mon!!!!!!!

[mcduggly]

Nice win, TT.

[InTheDrink]

[tto827]

You can just gimme the leg lamp for March now guys.
Thanks in advance.

[BigDeem5]

Line was 3, over under 126 lol

Grats

[InTheDrink]

You can just gimme the leg lamp for March now guys.
Thanks in advance.

how can you lose the college hoops pool and get the leg lamp

nice hit tito

[mcduggly]

Line was 3, over under 126 lol

Grats

Crazy how close they get to these outcomes.

[tatddy]

Nice!

[tto827]

Nice!

Gracias