Does anyone in here consistantly make money betting?

[JRS21386]

Oh i didnt know his job WAS that... lol

[apk2k6]

80%?? I sure would like to see that spreadsheet

His picks are posted early every week. I don't post at the RX forums but his plays are there as well, he has his own section. I know him from a different forum. There are tons of tools out there to use to aid in handicapping, people just choose not to use them.

If someone just bets based on their gut instinct, then of course they probably won't be profitable long term.

[bettilimbroke999]

Let me give you one piece of advice, and listen carefully.

NEVER make a deal with someone where you follow them, and give them a piece of your profits. If they are a pro, they don't need your money. If they aren't they will free-roll you.

I guess so I just every1 tells me what an authority Justin is, how bout you give us a few of your stronger bets and we'll see how impressive they are just to justify your claims (giving us hope) and dig us out of the barrel a lil in the process

You seem like a very intelligent guy Justin, but straight handicapping turning a profit whilst paying vig, now that's another matter, I don't know how youd do that, these games are about as predictable as a coinflip and the professionals come up with lines that rarely move more than 1-2 pts on a 200 pt total so it's not like they're way off and sharps are hammering a free money "wrong side"

In any event since you don't need the money yet you somehow need money enough to work for SBR I suppose you wont give any bets but as they say I fuked 500 centerfolds last year and made a million sports gambling but I'm not going to tell you how I did it

[donjuan]

do math guys ever bet alien props or dancing with the stars?

I'm not sure I qualify as a math guy or the following example qualifies but I used to bet plenty of Bodog's entertainment props when they were offering them. $50 never felt so good, especially the time I won on Hasselhoff going to rehab.

[donjuan]

I guess so I just every1 tells me what an authority Justin is, how bout you give us a few of your stronger bets and we'll see how impressive they are just to justify your claims (giving us hope) and dig us out of the barrel a lil in the process

I highly doubt you will have the slightest clue how to quantify "how impressive" Justin's bets are if you can't understand the simple concepts being presented to you here.

I don't know how youd do that, these games are about as predictable as a coinflip and the professionals come up with lines that rarely move more than 1-2 pts on a 200 pt total so it's not like they're way off and sharps are hammering a free money "wrong side"

It's been explained to you many times. And FWIW, openers are very soft and move a lot.

In any event since you don't need the money yet you somehow need money enough to work for SBR I suppose you wont give any bets but as they say I fuked 500 centerfolds last year and made a million sports gambling but I'm not going to tell you how I did it

If I had sex with 500 centerfolds last year, I sure as hell wouldn't go tell a ton of random strangers how to fúck them. Nothing personal; just not a big fan of Chlamydia.

[Cheme82]

Let me give you one piece of advice, and listen carefully.

NEVER make a deal with someone where you follow them, and give them a piece of your profits. If they are a pro, they don't need your money. If they aren't they will free-roll you.

I disagree with this advice, and this is why:

There are winning sports bettors (like me) that do not have the bankroll size to make a living completely out of this. Why I don't have the bankroll you might ask if I am winning consistently? Well because I am young and starting a family. I have only been gambling for 4 years and I haven't finished college so I don't make much at work. So that's why I haven't saved enough money to just live of gambling.....yet.

I have met a few people at work (I work at a business lounge at the airport) that make decent money in their jobs and lused to lose a lot of it gambling in sports. A few of these people came to know me pretty well and they currently follow all my plays and give me some of the money they make (I have done this for 2 years) and now they are actually making money and having more fun than they did before they met me.

Now i know some of you are going to say I am a tout and I suck, and this and that. But at the end of the day, if it wasn't for me they would still be losing. I put a lot of time into my picks and I make a profit out of it. And the money I get from them every week allows me to keep my bankroll untouched for the whole season so hopefully in the future I will have enough to live off of this.

This are recreational gamblers that make around 150 to 200 K a year. And before they met me some of them were dropping a few thousand a week because they can't pick worth a shit, now they are happy to throw me a couple hundred every now and then and pocket a nice chunk of change even after they paid me. It's a win-win situation (except for the bookie but nobody likes them anyway).

So yes there are good cappers that need your %.

YTD
NFL
32-13-1 135.45
Teasers
1-4 -34
CFB
41-31 77.35
Teasers
1-4 -33.5
NBA
3-3 -3

[JRS21386]

If you don't mind me asking what exactly do you look at between matchups to come to your conclusions?

[porkchop817]

people on here are asking if any1 makes a livin at this crap, same ppl prolly think u can make a livin at horse racing and pay touts for picks

Not to harp on you...but I know a few people who do make a living, or a decent supplement to their regular income, with horse racing.

I bet horses regularly, usually several days a week. Its recreational for me, I don't make very large wagers ($2-$10). This year has been a down year compared to others, and I'm up about $8k. Not making a living, by any means, but like I said...I do it for fun.

I have a regular career, and I work about 5 minutes from the local horse track. I know guys that are at the horse track every day...most of them not doing so well, but there are some I know that make a substantial amount of dough.

If you ask me, its alot easier to make money at horses than it is at sports....but I'm new to sports handicapping, I've been doing horses for a few years.

GL

[Cheme82]

For NFL I watch all the games from the previous week and make my own lines for the upcoming week. Then I compare my lines to the available lines, I find any lines that are off by at least 3 points and that usually narrows it down to about 3 or 4 on a normal Sunday. Then I take those 3 or 4 games and check for injuries, weather, any thing that might explain why my line and the available line is so far off. That usually takes about 1 or 2 games off the board and leaves me with my plays for that day.

In college I take a little different approach because there are so many teams. I still watch a lot of games (obviously not all of them) and then I scan the available lines and look for lines that look off (why do they look off to me?) I don't know, some of them just jump out and look off. That usually generates about 10 or so games and then I go and look at statistics, letdown factor, sandwich spots, look ahead factors, bowl or conference championships implications, etc. And after that a lot of the games that seemed off to me start to look like the lines are about right. Whatever is left is what I play.

I am a Math major in school, so I use some numbers to make my plays but I also have a lot of "human" imput on my plays as far as the current status of a team or key player to decide my plays. I have tried with Math models, where a program just tells me what to play and I blindly play it but I haven't been as succesful as I am when I put my imput on the decisions. The Math model is great because it saves a lot of time but I believe it lacks the human touch to go against something than numerically might make sense. The games are played by humans after all, and no computer can grasp all the emotion that some matchups contain.

YTD
NFL
32-13-1 135.45
Teasers
1-4 -34
CFB
41-31 77.35
Teasers
1-4 -33.5
NBA
3-3 -3

[bettilimbroke999]

I agree with what Justin said earlier though u can't offer a percentage of winnings b/c ppl will try to take ya for a freeroll, I guess I trust Justin 1% more than the avg tout since I've followed his videos, blackjack seminar etc. and would hope he wouldn't just go nuts given me lottery picks freerolling but perhaps you can't trust anybody on here, guess we live in the paranoid world of gambling where even somebody's picks could be bullshit

[xyz]

Based on what I have read on this forum, and after applying a fraction of what they suggested, I firmly believe that there are winning players in this thread. For the people that make a living out of this, like Justin and Durito, what do you need to do to report taxes properly? For ** or ** payouts and deposits, I am worried that doing them too frequently would raise flags. What do you do to address that? Thanks for your help.

[durito]

Based on what I have read on this forum, and after applying a fraction of what they suggested, I firmly believe that there are winning players in this thread. For the people that make a living out of this, like Justin and Durito, what do you need to do to report taxes properly? For ** or ** payouts and deposits, I am worried that doing them too frequently would raise flags. What do you do to address that? Thanks for your help.

Income from sports gambling is taxable like any other income (in the USA anyway).

[laxdjock]

In NFL and CFB; however, I have been consistently in the high 50's - low 60's range. I don't have that much free time besides the one I already spend to make my football picks so I decided to focus only on football.

So every year, I try to double my bankroll in the last 4 months of the year and usually keep playing all of January. After that, I take my money and wait for football to start again (I make little plays throughout the year but nothing serious).

This is exactly what I do. I'll bet a few college BBall games here and there, but the majority of my sports betting action (and profits) comes from FB. I cut way down on what I bet because of lifestyle choices, so now I just take my winnings and roll them into my bankroll for casino trips and have a good time. I can't imagine doing this for a living, my hat is off to those who can hang.

[laxdjock]

I'm not sure I qualify as a math guy or the following example qualifies but I used to bet plenty of Bodog's entertainment props when they were offering them. $50 never felt so good, especially the time I won on Hasselhoff going to rehab.

There use to be a lot of value in opening weekend movie premiers. You can't make a ton of money off of them, but it is fun.

[Dark Horse]

-

[ShamsWoof10]

You realize that if you come across two arbable lines, one of them is generally +ev, right? If you can figure out which, you have a good play (this is not difficult, it's the non-pinnacle book)

This is not as true as it use to be...

He came to this conclusion because he is/was an arber and he realized that the pinny. side kept losing so he just started taking the opposite side blindly... This is not new and the fact he knows may be why it's not as true as it use to be and maybe on it's way out soon...

[reno cool]

Not to harp on you...but I know a few people who do make a living, or a decent supplement to their regular income, with horse racing.

I bet horses regularly, usually several days a week. Its recreational for me, I don't make very large wagers ($2-$10). This year has been a down year compared to others, and I'm up about $8k. Not making a living, by any means, but like I said...I do it for fun.

I have a regular career, and I work about 5 minutes from the local horse track. I know guys that are at the horse track every day...most of them not doing so well, but there are some I know that make a substantial amount of dough.

If you ask me, its alot easier to make money at horses than it is at sports....but I'm new to sports handicapping, I've been doing horses for a few years.

GL

I have a hard time believing you can make 8k betting 2-$10 at the races. Unless you had a couple of huge payouts, such as supers or pick5-6. Beating a 20% vig has to be one of the toughest ways to make a profit.

a. you're just making shit up
or
b. you got extremely lucky

[reno cool]

I disagree with this advice, and this is why:

There are winning sports bettors (like me) that do not have the bankroll size to make a living completely out of this. Why I don't have the bankroll you might ask if I am winning consistently? Well because I am young and starting a family. I have only been gambling for 4 years and I haven't finished college so I don't make much at work. So that's why I haven't saved enough money to just live of gambling.....yet.

I have met a few people at work (I work at a business lounge at the airport) that make decent money in their jobs and lused to lose a lot of it gambling in sports. A few of these people came to know me pretty well and they currently follow all my plays and give me some of the money they make (I have done this for 2 years) and now they are actually making money and having more fun than they did before they met me.

Now i know some of you are going to say I am a tout and I suck, and this and that. But at the end of the day, if it wasn't for me they would still be losing. I put a lot of time into my picks and I make a profit out of it. And the money I get from them every week allows me to keep my bankroll untouched for the whole season so hopefully in the future I will have enough to live off of this.

This are recreational gamblers that make around 150 to 200 K a year. And before they met me some of them were dropping a few thousand a week because they can't pick worth a shit, now they are happy to throw me a couple hundred every now and then and pocket a nice chunk of change even after they paid me. It's a win-win situation (except for the bookie but nobody likes them anyway).

So yes there are good cappers that need your %.

YTD
NFL
32-13-1 135.45
Teasers
1-4 -34
CFB
41-31 77.35
Teasers
1-4 -33.5
NBA
3-3 -3

since you've been doing this for years you must've encountered loosing streaks. Oblivious gamblers such as your supporters appear to be would be tempted to give up on you. What has been your experience in this situation?

[reno cool]

You're either arbing, scalping or losing so which is it

Long ago the books caught on to advantage teasers and even slightly correlated parlays are being blocked nowadays by the majority of books, so how with no handicapping do u gain an advantage?

Justin7 works for SBR, he makes his money by puttin up videos so the rest of us can dream of breaking even

thats the game B. By the time the books(casinos) figure out where they ****ed up the good pro is finding an edge somewhere else..

[porkchop817]

I have a hard time believing you can make 8k betting 2-$10 at the races. Unless you had a couple of huge payouts, such as supers or pick5-6. Beating a 20% vig has to be one of the toughest ways to make a profit.

a. you're just making shit up
or
b. you got extremely lucky

I did have one very big hit on a $2 pick 3 this year at the belmont, it was $6400 thanks to zitos horse da tara. The ticket was constructed with 3horses/3horses/8horses(i think) for $144. I guess thats a little misleading when i say i bet $2-$10...at the derby, preakness, and belmont i always place a very heavy pick 3. The belmont was the last leg of the pick 3, and i took every horse but big brown. It was a stupid bet, and i went back and forth a few times trying to talk myself into it. With all the problems big brown was having with his cracked hoof, and the fact that they kept pushing off his workouts to "tomorrow", in my gut i knew he wasnt going to be ready for the race. I had no idea it was going to be da tara that won though, i didn't even include either of nick zitos horses in my other belmont wagers.

THANKS NICK ZITO!

Other than that, I had a $1 pick 3 on 3 tickets that payed out $400 3 times. Those were my two big hits for this year.

One thing I usually look for are place/show pools that are exploitable in races of 7 horses or less. There are usually only a select few races per day that are playable, but they are usually pretty lucrative considering the amount wagered. On an average week i make about $150 or so. Its not much, but again, I'm not wagering much. Every now and then you get lucky and hit big on a race where the bridge jumpers lose big.

2 weeks ago there was a huge bridge jumper at laurel park. The show pools read something like this (just an example, not accurate):

horse: pool:
1 1,000
2 95,000
3 1,000
4 800
5 800
6 300

$95,000 in the show pool on one horse, and i think that horse fell asleep back at the stable....he came in like 5th or 6th.

I had $10 to show on the 3, and here were the payouts thanks to DRF:
Laurel Park November 22, 2008
6TH RACE

Next Post 3:28 Off: 2:58 | 5 1/2 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds And Up | Allowance Optional Claiming ($50,000 - $45,000) | Purse: $39,200

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
5 Story of a Lion Acosta J D 118 44.40 12.00 55.20
4 She's Golden Delgado A 122 10.60 32.80
3 Nasty Fever Camacho E 120 56.20

Some people say that wagering to show is like kissing your sister...but i'll take a $281 payout on a show ticket any day of the week!

[reno cool]

I do like betting against people hammering a "lock to show". They're guaranteed 2.10 or 2.05 is such a poor bet most of the time. I wouldn't be surprised if ones edge betting against these would be in the hundreds.
But like you say the opportunities are rare, and any large bet would drastically lower your payout.

[Cheme82]

since you've been doing this for years you must've encountered loosing streaks. Oblivious gamblers such as your supporters appear to be would be tempted to give up on you. What has been your experience in this situation?

Since they only pay me on the profits they make then on losing streaks they don't give me any money, and since the losing streaks are small compared to the season-long profits then I get a pass. I find losing streaks more damaging when working with new people, they see you lose 2 in a row and automatically think you suck. That's why I give them 10 days for free, in a 10 day strech I usually finish ahead most of the time.

YTD
NFL
32-13-1 135.45
Teasers
1-4 -34
CFB
41-31 77.35
Teasers
1-4 -33.5
NBA
3-3 -3