Does anyone in here consistantly make money betting?

[Cheme82]

The key to making money on sports is discipline. Not only in your bankroll management but in the kinds of bets you make.

I have tried to cap NBA and MLB and have been right around the brake even point. In NFL and CFB; however, I have been consistently in the high 50's - low 60's range. I don't have that much free time besides the one I already spend to make my football picks so I decided to focus only on football.

So every year, I try to double my bankroll in the last 4 months of the year and usually keep playing all of January. After that, I take my money and wait for football to start again (I make little plays throughout the year but nothing serious).

So find your strength and bet heavy on it. It's better to be really strong in one sport and terrible in the others (as long as you are smart enough not to lose the money you made on your strong sport by betting it on your crappy ones), than to be flirting with 50% in all of the sports you cap.

So anybody that is money in MLB, NBA, or college hoops and is less than brilliant in football PM me so we can both earn money all year long.

YTD
NFL
31-13-1 131.45
Teasers
1-4 -34
CFB
41-31 77.35
Teasers
1-4 -33.5
NBA
3-3 -3

[vanman]

Yes, very wise.

In soccer, for big international tournaments (World Cup, Euro Cup, Qualifiers), look for Totals on Fouls and Totals on Offside.

$$

European books have certainly got wise to that,totals are now a lot more realistic.

[jjgold]

No such thing as your strenghth because every year is different, some years football is your best and some years baskets is your best. Many say they win but most lose if they posted every bet they made.

[Cheme82]

No such thing as your strenghth because every year is different, some years football is your best and some years baskets is your best. Many say they win but most lose if they posted every bet they made.

That might be your case. Football is by far my best sport, specially NFL. If you don't have a sport that you can call your strength then you might want to start focusing on one, like I said you are better off being great at one thing than average in many.

As far as only posting some picks, why would you not post everything you play? Isn't that the point of this site? To share all of our plays so people can compare, follow, or fade?

[Tsoprano]

Yes

[Boner_18]

Props are the easiest money offshore if you know how to do them.


In my lifetime, I've held about 8% against props, and that's betting anything and everything I think I have any edge. If you're discriminating, you can hold even more.

Justin in the video you mention other methodologies for pricing props. My book mainly offers WR and RB total yards or comparative yards props. If the players total yards median and mean are close, what stat would I use to normalize? Still total yards allowed by the league/opponent?

Thanks!

[bettilimbroke999]

Fuk no! How can any1 make a profit long-term when they lose around 7% of their money when they go 50/50 at -110, we got a couple of arbers (which is not gambling) who make a small profit but betfair's gonna tax them 20% of all their winnings so who knows how long they'll be in business

In true sports gambling the only one who wins is the bookie

[tacomax]

Fuk no! How can any1 make a profit long-term when they lose around 7% of their money when they go 50/50 at -110, we got a couple of arbers (which is not gambling) who make a small profit but betfair's gonna tax them 20% of all their winnings so who knows how long they'll be in business

I don't really know where to start.

[bettilimbroke999]

I don't really know where to start.

Actually you'd lose exactly 5%, 10k roll 200 55 bets at -110, hittin 50% youd win 5000 and lose 5500 so you'd have 9500 at the end of betting 10k at 50% for a -5%, repeat the process until your broke, raising the amount you bet just accelerates the process

[durito]

4.54% is the hold at -110/-110

But, that's not really the point here.

[bettilimbroke999]

4.54% is the hold at -110/-110

But, that's not really the point here.

Yep bet 10,500 and if you get lucky you might breakeven if your unlucky you lose a fortune and if you hit the average you lose 500 bucks and people on here are asking if any1 makes a livin at this crap, same ppl prolly think u can make a livin at horse racing and pay touts for picks

The point is due this shit for entertainment for no more than 50 bucks a game and after 200 bets youll have spent 500 but maybe have had a good time, if you're lucky youll be even or up a few hundred and if you're unlucky youll be down a couple grand

[durito]

So you think I do this for fun?

[bettilimbroke999]

So you think I do this for fun?

You're either an arber or do it for fun, virtually no one has the handicapping skills to overcome the vig long-term

[durito]

You're either an arber or do it for fun, virtually no one has the handicapping skills to overcome the vig long-term

So you think I'm lying.

What about Justin7, liar too?


fwiw, you don't need any "handicapping skills" to make lots of money doing this

[bettilimbroke999]

You're either arbing, scalping or losing so which is it

Long ago the books caught on to advantage teasers and even slightly correlated parlays are being blocked nowadays by the majority of books, so how with no handicapping do u gain an advantage?

Justin7 works for SBR, he makes his money by puttin up videos so the rest of us can dream of breaking even

[durito]

You realize that if you come across two arbable lines, one of them is generally +ev, right? If you can figure out which, you have a good play (this is not difficult, it's the non-pinnacle book)

[bettilimbroke999]

I guess so, whatever you're doin keep it up if you're winning I know they're killin me, this shits fukin impossible when ur tryin to dodge a TD be4 the half with 2 mins left to win a bet and you get nothing but 20 yrd runs and personal fouls to rob ya, no way to predict this shit

Play poker if u want an edge but they tell me half the players can see your cards online so maybe that's become a way to go broke as well

[Justin7]

You're either arbing, scalping or losing so which is it

Long ago the books caught on to advantage teasers and even slightly correlated parlays are being blocked nowadays by the majority of books, so how with no handicapping do u gain an advantage?

Justin7 works for SBR, he makes his money by puttin up videos so the rest of us can dream of breaking even

Sports betting is about 75% of my income. It has been at least this much for the last 5 years. Law, Blackjack and consultant work are niches that earn well also.

There are 1000's of ways to skin a cat. Arbs and scalps are good for "small ball". Props and derivatives make more - it's hard to get (and maintain liquidity) on arbs, although teasers are a quasi-arb.

Handicapping. You can do it, but you really need a team of people. You need years of data, you need an analyst to make sense out of it. You need someone who can model the data. And you need good information (injuries, weather or other unique situational factors). If you have all of these, it's hard to lose at sports.

Market manipulation. Oops, I'd better not go there.

Bonus whoring. Oops. I might have to go there sometime.

ID Fraud (with the bonus hustle). Oops, can't go there either

Information monopolies. Hmm, better avoid that also.

Sports, like any other venture, will earn for anyone who is smart and works hard. And sports, like any other business, will crush someone who lacks brains or work ethic.

[JRS21386]

thats awesome

[bettilimbroke999]

Thanks Justin alot of that does have validity, I don't even know what market manipulation means but good 4 u if it works, not sure how u make a profit on props when the vig is through the roof but possibly

Are you saying you make money bonus whoring, I'm not following ya too well seems like ud have been excluded from bonuses for sharpness long ago if 75% of your income comes from sports gambling

I do agree up to date weather and injury reports are very influential factors


As far as years of data where do you find that shit out (is this the information monopoly you were referring to?) and how does the play of past teams influence entirely different teams?

Give us a run down of the process that goes into a typical Justin7 bet and what separates it from the bets the poor barrelled in fuks such as myself make

First off don't the high paid bookies cap the games better than I could anyway, how am I supposed to outhandicap them when they do this for a living, true taking advantage of information that develops closer to gametime could be advantageous

[durito]

Take a look at the evidence right in front of you:

If it's impossible to win, why do so many books cut limits and boot players?

If the lines are so sharp, why do they move so much?

[bettilimbroke999]

Well shit just too much fukin work, Justin can't ya just post your bets so we can all win, I'll give ya a cut of my winnings

[JRS21386]

I win a good bit

[durito]

Well shit just too much fukin work, Justin can't ya just post your bets so we can all win, I'll give ya a cut of my winnings

Justin has given out more than enough information to become a winning bettor. It takes work. Give it a try some time.

[fiveteamer]

do math guys ever bet alien props or dancing with the stars?

[JRS21386]

Agreed... Plus don't hate on the guys who are SUCCESSFUL at it... takes work and skill

[fiveteamer]

Some guys work 11 hour shifts at TB in order to pay the rent and can't be bothered to watch lines for 13 hours a day, Justin.

[bettilimbroke999]

No one's hatin on the successful players, I offered to give Justin a cut of my winnings if he'll tell me what bets to make since he knows which ones are winners so well as to make 75% of his income off sports gambling, I'm impressed by anyone who can even turn a profit at sports gambling much less make a living at it, I have to be honest after the month I just had and the plays I've seen to break me I'm incline to think Justin is bullshitting considerably but who knows

[JRS21386]

I wish i could do it... I don't have the time either...

[MoneySportsGuy]

what book are you on bettili?

[apk2k6]

No one's hatin on the successful players, I offered to give Justin a cut of my winnings if he'll tell me what bets to make since he knows which ones are winners so well as to make 75% of his income off sports gambling, I'm impressed by anyone who can even turn a profit at sports gambling much less make a living at it, I have to be honest after the month I just had and the plays I've seen to break me I'm incline to think Justin is bullshitting considerably but who knows

I like SBR for its contests and all, but there are other sites where people actually take this stuff seriously and make very good money. There's a guy who's 80% in college football this season and has made over 100 picks.

Don't get me wrong, there are some good cappers on here as well, but there's just a lot more casual/squares here too.

[Justin7]

I offered to give Justin a cut of my winnings if he'll tell me what bets to make since he knows which ones are winners so well as to make 75% of his income off sports gambling, I'm impressed by anyone who can even turn a profit at sports gambling much less make a living at it, I have to be honest after the month I just had and the plays I've seen to break me I'm incline to think Justin is bullshitting considerably but who knows

Let me give you one piece of advice, and listen carefully.

NEVER make a deal with someone where you follow them, and give them a piece of your profits. If they are a pro, they don't need your money. If they aren't they will free-roll you.

[MoneySportsGuy]

80%?? I sure would like to see that spreadsheet

[JRS21386]

80% is a little unbelievable... If so, he needs to quit his dayjob

[MoneySportsGuy]

he cant quit his dayjob, his job is hitting 80% haha