Should I move up my unit size from 2.5% to 3.5%

[and24]

I think it's okay to bet %5 if your bank is smaller then 1000-2000€. Since you have nothing to lose. Even if you lose this money, it won't be end of the world.

2k is nothing?

[maxvalue1]

Sawyer, what is your take on Kelly betting? what would you advise someone who can hit 54% long term but is very very selective? all major sports.

[leafs_ducks]

depending on how much u got in ur br. if I have 400. I bet 25% or 50% of it. sometimes 100%. lol. but I would say 10-20% of br is ideal

[leafs_ducks]

but that's just me.

[easyliving]

depending on how much u got in ur br. if I have 400. I bet 25% or 50% of it. sometimes 100%. lol. but I would say 10-20% of br is ideal

so you like to reload once a week? If your not gonna practice BR management no point in depositing your pretty much throwing your money away as your guaranteed to lose it betting such large %s

[leafs_ducks]

well i can say I've been doing this for abt 2.years now. and I'm up. not by much. but up. sometimes I go more depending on my balance. I'm not proud of it as u can see I have really poor br management. ill probably go broke soon. lol. I like to push my luck. get my high from that. lol

[leafs_ducks]

and if u just stick to the sports u know best. u don't have to worry abt reloading.

[rki999]

Decided not to make the move up. gonna wait another week and consider it again.Apply on brake.

[easyliving]

today is the day, finally moving up my unit size each bet will be to win 1 unit from now on with a unit being 3% of my BR.

[tto827]

Sawyer, what is your take on Kelly betting? what would you advise someone who can hit 54% long term but is very very selective? all major sports.

54% is a good number. But Kelly will kill you if you do not know your exact edge on each bet.

[wantitall4moi]

54% is a good number. But Kelly will kill you if you do not know your exact edge on each bet.

LOL NO ONE knows their edge on ANY bet, let alone each and every bet.

[tto827]

LOL NO ONE knows their edge on ANY bet, let alone each and every bet.

Then would you explain how you are supposed to use kelly criterion to bet when it is established under the basis that you know your edge for a given bet?

[gryfyn1]

it would depend on why. If you're simply increasing you bet size because "you're hot right now" then no. Any decision to increase your bets must be a long term choice.

[wantitall4moi]

Then would you explain how you are supposed to use kelly criterion to bet when it is established under the basis that you know your edge for a given bet?

you dont use kelly kelly is a crock of shit.

[tto827]

you dont use kelly kelly is a crock of shit.

For 99% of people you are right that it wouldn't work. But there is a least a handful of people who can make sharper lines than the book, because they do not have to worry about public perception.

[wantitall4moi]

For 99% of people you are right that it wouldn't work. But there is a least a handful of people who can make sharper lines than the book, because they do not have to worry about public perception.

For sake of argument.

A guy has a game -6 the books have it lined -4. What does he bet on it? THEN what happens if the line goes to -3 (after he has already bet it)? He not only lost 'value' because he bet a worse line than he could have, even though what he bet was still better than 'his' line. But the lijne moved in a way that most peopel would think 'sharps' bet it, and thus makes his play weaker anyway.

There are varying degrees of 'value' and 'advantage' in sports betting. Guys can make all the numbers up they want the ultimate goal is to get the winning side. THEN get the best price for it, THEN worry about how much youre going to bet on it at whatever number you see. I have always been a flat betting type of guy. Where you gain more is when you have dogs on MLs and get the extra rather than just taking the points. Then you dont have to worry about 'strength' of 'advantage'.

The thing about weighted plays and the 'modern' way of thinking is you see a number, you watch the number, if it moves you try to get the number at as close to the original as you can. To most people THAT is what determines their so called advantage. So a game opens -130, it starts to steam and is -135 and -142 at a book here or there. So guys try and determine what the 'fair' price is and compare the numbers. If they see a bunch of -142 and even a'rogue' -146 but still can bet -134 (even though it was as low as -130) they think they have a GREAT 'advantage'. Because people are dumb, and they think every steam move is 'correct. Most dont even bother looking at the other side and wondering if now that it has moved 15 cents if that side now offers more 'value' than the original that everyone steamed like crazy. The winner still determines 'value' though. There is no value' in a losing play. If you bet a team -130 or +138 there is still only going to be one ticket that cashes.

Kelly doesnt work because expectation is never above 50%, despite the bullshit people try to convince others or themselves off, as long as youre playing one way and paying vig youre below 50%. Ony time it works is when you can get both sides at odds that make it impossible to lose, then you dont need kelly to tell you that you can have 100% of your bankroll in action and not worry.

[tto827]

I don't even pretend to fully understand how any of this works, I'm just going off what I've read and seen from some sharp minds.
I'm sure people come up with slightly different numbers, but Justin7 had said that BTCL by a point was equal to a certain %edge over the book. If the number goes from -4 to -3 then I believe you should put an additional wager on them minus 3 seeing as your edge is now greater.

I personally do not believe in playing lines, steam and all that is a dangerous toy to mess with in my mind.

But your 50% statement is wrong. Check out the "if you're betting the other side at pinnacle" thread in the think tank for an explanation from someone more advanced then me.

If DSI is offering San Francisco/Baltimore as a pk'em.
And Pinny is offering Baltimore +150, and San Francisco -170.
The smartest bet to make is San Fran as a pk'em at DSI. And that would be more +EV than any arb involving a play at pinny. No matter which side you take at Pinny (assuming the line is accurate) you are paying vig on it. San Fran at -110 is beyond a vig free bet.
If you calculate the true odds based off of Pinny's lines, you will see that over a large sample size, the correct play is San Fran at DSI, without a hedge, because you LOSE value with your hedge. And if a wager post hedges expectation is above 50%, and it went down because of the hedge, then that means the initial expectation was greater than 50%.

[smoke a bowl]

Then would you explain how you are supposed to use kelly criterion to bet when it is established under the basis that you know your edge for a given bet?

I use half kelly up to 2.5%.

[wantitall4moi]

I don't even pretend to fully understand how any of this works, I'm just going off what I've read and seen from some sharp minds.
I'm sure people come up with slightly different numbers, but Justin7 had said that BTCL by a point was equal to a certain %edge over the book. If the number goes from -4 to -3 then I believe you should put an additional wager on them minus 3 seeing as your edge is now greater.

I personally do not believe in playing lines, steam and all that is a dangerous toy to mess with in my mind.

But your 50% statement is wrong. Check out the "if you're betting the other side at pinnacle" thread in the think tank for an explanation from someone more advanced then me.

If DSI is offering San Francisco/Baltimore as a pk'em.
And Pinny is offering Baltimore +150, and San Francisco -170.
The smartest bet to make is San Fran as a pk'em at DSI. And that would be more +EV than any arb involving a play at pinny. No matter which side you take at Pinny (assuming the line is accurate) you are paying vig on it. San Fran at -110 is beyond a vig free bet.
If you calculate the true odds based off of Pinny's lines, you will see that over a large sample size, the correct play is San Fran at DSI, without a hedge, because you LOSE value with your hedge. And if a wager post hedges expectation is above 50%, and it went down because of the hedge, then that means the initial expectation was greater than 50%.

I track every single game and every single move. There is ZERO correlation between any book versus any other book as in "pinny lean'.

There is also no advantage beating a 'closing' number either. All that is predicated in the ability to go look AFTER a game is finished and and say the line was X, the score difference was Y, therefore if you had 'beat' X you win. Its called results wagering and it doesnt work.

90% of line move, if you worried about every single one of them you wold go nuts. But obviously when you have the benefit of hindsight you can cherry pick all th results you want and spin them to your argument.

I have reaults and moves back years and years, hell even here on SBR you can go back at least 3. Just go look at those and see how moves were then compare to the so called 'beating the closer' theory then see where it didnt matter.

Obviously getting the best number matters, but there is no way of telling when that is or on what side it will be. There are always two "best numbers' the only difference is it only matter with one of them in more than 90% of the games.