Model for estimating MLB run totals. Now time to beta test.

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  • matthew919
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-21-12
    • 421

    #176
    Sweet mercy, whoever is running the show over at BetOnline has been drinking on the job this afternoon. These openers have been atrocious. Here's another one:

    SD/CHC o8 +105
    Comment
    • sploofdogg
      SBR Sharp
      • 01-20-13
      • 335

      #177
      Matthew - great threat. Are these lines for 5/1 or 4/30?
      Comment
      • matthew919
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-21-12
        • 421

        #178
        Originally posted by sploofdogg
        Matthew - great threat. Are these lines for 5/1 or 4/30?
        Thanks. The last three posts are all for 5/1; my bad for not dating the Cubs game in post 177. Unfortunately you won't find the NYY line available at that price anymore- it plunged 40 cents or so right after I posted.
        Comment
        • matthew919
          SBR Sharp
          • 11-21-12
          • 421

          #179
          Yikes, you also won't find the DET game at the same value either- I noticed that one dropped from u9 -105 to a much more reasonable u8.5 -115, following Bookmaker's opener.

          I'm betting once BM sets the CHC line you'll see a massive jump in that game as well. It's like amateur hour out there.
          I loves me some amateur hour.
          Comment
          • LT Profits
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-27-06
            • 90963

            #180
            BOL is the first book I have ever seen that hangs Wrigley Field totals the day before. But do they keep those up overnight or do they take them down when they converge to Pinny/CRIS "real" openers?
            Comment
            • matthew919
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-21-12
              • 421

              #181
              From what I've seen they keep them up, then adjust immediately to the CRIS openers, just like all their other lines.
              Comment
              • matthew919
                SBR Sharp
                • 11-21-12
                • 421

                #182
                Update through 4/30:

                UNDER WAGERS
                Line movement accordance: 31-12-3
                Avg movement: -6.35c

                OVER WAGERS
                Line movement accordance: 13-5-1
                Avg movement: +9.37c
                Comment
                • matthew919
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 11-21-12
                  • 421

                  #183
                  Adding, for 5/1:

                  BAL/SEA u7.5 -115
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #184
                    Originally posted by matthew919
                    From what I've seen they keep them up, then adjust immediately to the CRIS openers, just like all their other lines.
                    Cubs total is off the board now so apparently they take Wrigley totals off shortly after CRIS opens MLB at 6:00pm ET
                    Comment
                    • matthew919
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 11-21-12
                      • 421

                      #185
                      Does Heritage do the same? I saw they posted an overnight last night as well, but I don't have an account there.
                      Comment
                      • LT Profits
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-27-06
                        • 90963

                        #186
                        Originally posted by matthew919
                        Does Heritage do the same? I saw they posted an overnight last night as well, but I don't have an account there.
                        No they didn't, it just looks like a bad feed to the line services.
                        Comment
                        • matthew919
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-21-12
                          • 421

                          #187
                          And we're off and rolling for Thursday, 5/2's smaller card:

                          TB/KC u8.5 -105
                          Comment
                          • matthew919
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-21-12
                            • 421

                            #188
                            Better get in on this one fast- it is waaaaaay too high. For 5/2:

                            BAL/LAA u9 -110
                            Comment
                            • alamo
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-21-09
                              • 7131

                              #189
                              Hey Matthew, Ques - What book are you using for the early lines. I predominately use Bet365, Pinnacle and some other random European books which don't seem to post next day lines until the present day is out of the way.
                              Comment
                              • matthew919
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 11-21-12
                                • 421

                                #190
                                I envy your list of options. I use BetOnline. From what I can tell they open first. Twenty cent totals, but for many games, still better value than playing ten cent overnight lines at Pinny.
                                Comment
                                • alamo
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-21-09
                                  • 7131

                                  #191
                                  Cheers Matt ! Managed to signup and deposit so I am up n running ! Thx for your help.
                                  Comment
                                  • benjy
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-19-09
                                    • 2158

                                    #192
                                    My first tail, just for SBR points, on the BAL/LAA game tomorrow.

                                    I worry that Blanton is a gascan and that any huge outlier might be an error rather than a true result.

                                    Regardless of the result I appreciate your posts and wish your model the best.
                                    Comment
                                    • matthew919
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 11-21-12
                                      • 421

                                      #193
                                      Thanks mayne; honored that you see value in my plays- even if only for points. Left coast games just started, so time for an update.

                                      Through 5/1:
                                      UNDER WAGERS
                                      Line movement accordance: 33-12-3
                                      Avg movement: -7.19c

                                      OVER WAGERS
                                      Line movement accordance: 14-5-1
                                      Avg movement: +12.30c

                                      No need to adjust your screen- you are reading those numbers correctly. The last two days' worth of line movement have been very good. Here is a table charting the "Unders." Remember, we want to see large negative numbers in the far right column, indicating strong line movement downward (measured in cents):

                                      Date Home Away Wager_OU WageredLine WageredOdds PinnyClosingLine PinnyClosingOdds LineMovement
                                      20130430 SEA BAL U 7.5 -120 7 115 5
                                      20130501 NYY HOU U 9.5 -105 8.5 116 -29
                                      20130501 DET MIN U 9 -105 8.5 -107 -24
                                      20130501 SEA BAL U 7.5 -115 7.5 -111 4
                                      And here are the over plays. Here we want to see large positive numbers in the far right column, indicating upward movement:

                                      Date Home Away Wager_OU WageredLine WageredOdds PinnyClosingLine PinnyClosingOdds LineMovement
                                      20130430 KC TB O 7.5 105 7.5 104 1
                                      20130430 DET MIN O 7.5 -110 8 -113 21
                                      20130430 TOR BOS O 7.5 -125 8.5 -125 36
                                      20130430 TEX CWS O 7.5 -110 8 -125 33
                                      20130501 CHC SD O 8 105 9 -111 68

                                      Obviously these results are not typical in the size of the line movement. But you gotta take the good with the bad.
                                      Comment
                                      • Hanamichi23
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 09-08-12
                                        • 16

                                        #194
                                        Any chance you can show us your line movement results but only of your overnight/day of the game bets (that is, your pinny line bets)?
                                        Comment
                                        • matthew919
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-21-12
                                          • 421

                                          #195
                                          I am going to preempt this particular post by repeating that I am NOT one to focus on my hard win/loss record.

                                          I simply don't care. I have a complete disregard for money, and an all consuming faith in the nature of markets and the law of large numbers. Again: I do not care about individual game results. At all.

                                          However, I want to take the time to focus on one game in particular today, that just finished up- the HOU/NYY game. I got in early on this game, spotting an opening line of u9.5 -105. My statistical model indicated that this line was much too high. Sure enough, the line fell to u8.5 +116 - a downward line movement equivalent to 29 cents (and was actually much lower than that for most of the day before closing). Anyone who claims that beating the closing line is not meaningful is wrong. And here's a perfect example of why:

                                          The game ended at 5-4 Yanks. Betting into the closer on the under on this one, you would have lost. I bet it at a better price, and won. That's a 2 unit swing in bankroll on ONE play alone. So far, I've posted about 70 plays, and am on track for ~600 or so for the year. So do the math for how many units that kind of thing evens out to. 10 units? 20, maybe? Whatever the number is, things like this are a key factor between long term losing and long term winning. That's why BTCL means everything.

                                          [And if you're still not convinced, take a look at the SD/CHC game today- I made the sharp play on an overnight line at o8 +105, while it closed at o9 -111. If you wanted the over at close- you lost. Where I took it: a push. There's another unit swing in bankroll.]
                                          Comment
                                          • matthew919
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 11-21-12
                                            • 421

                                            #196
                                            Originally posted by Hanamichi23
                                            Any chance you can show us your line movement results but only of your overnight/day of the game bets (that is, your pinny line bets)?
                                            Sorry, I don't keep those numbers, only the line and odds that I got in at.

                                            What I can say is that in my training and validation dataset, I noticed an interesting phenomenon. My model had a winning rate against closing lines (in the 53% range), though was not as successful as it was against the openers (for obvious reasons). However, when looking at JUST games for which the line looked "good" at open but "off" at close, I was pretty much coin flipping.

                                            On the other hand, for games where the line looked "bad" at open and "bad" at close (in other words, I would have bet the line at open OR at close, based on my confidence intervals) I was doing very well- in line with how it performed against openers.

                                            Take that how you will. What I interpret it to mean is that my model may have been missing key real time information that was present for certain games- in the real world, the line was moving to accommodate this, but my model was blind to it. (For example, injury reports, pitchers working through injuries, etc).

                                            Because of this, I'm working with sort of a Bayesian view: my model prediction represents my prior, and the market movement represents the data. The more the data has influenced the line (as seen by line movement), the less I believe my model.
                                            Comment
                                            • benjy
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-19-09
                                              • 2158

                                              #197
                                              Originally posted by matthew919
                                              Take that how you will. What I interpret it to mean is that my model may have been missing key real time information that was present for certain games- in the real world, the line was moving to accommodate this, but my model was blind to it. (For example, injury reports, pitchers working through injuries, etc).
                                              I've wondered how sensitive your model (or any baseball model really) was to various "real world" factors. In particular I'm curious about if/how you get lineups for the overnights and how sensitive the model is to a a star (e.g. Prince Fielder) being given the day off.

                                              Originally posted by matthew919
                                              Because of this, I'm working with sort of a Bayesian view: my model prediction represents my prior, and the market movement represents the data. The more the data has influenced the line (as seen by line movement), the less I believe my model.
                                              Cool. And the converse too, one hopes, when the market moves in your favour.
                                              Comment
                                              • matthew919
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-21-12
                                                • 421

                                                #198
                                                The lineups I use are estimated pretty much as accurately as possible for overnights. There will be occasional substitutions and injury announcements between then and game time that I'm blind to (unless I re-run my analysis with the updated info, which is a lot harder to do- I have been essentially eyeballing in cases like these so far). But those will be relatively rare, and generally will have small impact. Even Fielder being out does not have a very large impact on the full run total- maybe five cents or so.

                                                I've thought about ways to improve this further, but it is definitely a diminishing return on investment. Preseason baseball though- that is where I think an accurate lineup will give you an enormous edge. I plan to go after that angle some day in the far off future, when I've already made it and am relaxing in Florida with nothing better to do with my time.

                                                Another play for today, 5/2:

                                                BOS/TOR o9 +102
                                                Comment
                                                • matthew919
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 11-21-12
                                                  • 421

                                                  #199
                                                  Stared at this one for a while. Decided to grab it now.

                                                  5/2:

                                                  DET/HOU u9 +112
                                                  Comment
                                                  • matthew919
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 11-21-12
                                                    • 421

                                                    #200
                                                    Not even going to wait for the reduced juice here. Firing off my 5/3 wagers now:

                                                    MIN/CLE u8.5 -120,
                                                    BAL/LAA u8.5 -110,
                                                    TB/COL o9.5 -115,
                                                    STL/MIL o7.5 +110,
                                                    SEA/TOR o7.5 +110,
                                                    CHW/KC u8.5 -120

                                                    For reference, Miller park's roof is closed tonight, and I am assuming the same will be true tomorrow.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ghislaine
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-14-10
                                                      • 1131

                                                      #201
                                                      Got 9.5 @ bet365 now thanks for everything man, like to read Your posts. A fresh perspective is always cool.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • matthew919
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 11-21-12
                                                        • 421

                                                        #202
                                                        Originally posted by ghislaine
                                                        Got 9.5 @ bet365 now thanks for everything man, like to read Your posts. A fresh perspective is always cool.
                                                        Solid value there. Keep checking in.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • driveroute66
                                                          SBR Hustler
                                                          • 03-12-13
                                                          • 59

                                                          #203
                                                          Originally posted by matthew919
                                                          Not even going to wait for the reduced juice here. Firing off my 5/3 wagers now:

                                                          MIN/CLE u8.5 -120,
                                                          BAL/LAA u8.5 -110,
                                                          TB/COL o9.5 -115,
                                                          STL/MIL o7.5 +110,
                                                          SEA/TOR o7.5 +110,
                                                          CHW/KC u8.5 -120

                                                          For reference, Miller park's roof is closed tonight, and I am assuming the same will be true tomorrow.
                                                          SORRY GUY, I just realized these are tomorrow! My Apologies! Are these today's games? I see TAM playing KAN? I don't see some others. Lines are different. CWS playing TEX? Am I on a different day?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • AceofSP2107
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 07-28-09
                                                            • 717

                                                            #204
                                                            Today's 5/2 he wrote 5/3
                                                            Comment
                                                            • matthew919
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 11-21-12
                                                              • 421

                                                              #205
                                                              Weather caused a push in yesterday's KC game, and looks like it might cancel that under bet for today's game as well.
                                                              A pitching scratch also made the SEA/TOR wager a no action, but I just hit the over again for that game.

                                                              For 5/3:
                                                              SEA/TOR o7.5 -115
                                                              Comment
                                                              • matthew919
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 11-21-12
                                                                • 421

                                                                #206
                                                                BOS/TEX o9 +105 fpr today as well.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • matthew919
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 11-21-12
                                                                  • 421

                                                                  #207
                                                                  And last but not least, took CHW/KC u7.5 +100,

                                                                  for 5/3 (I'm bummed the original u8.5 bet got cancelled with Axelrod now pitching, but I still like the under here).
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JoeyBagels
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 03-10-13
                                                                    • 784

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Is your model based on individual batter/pitcher matchups throughout the game? Do you adjust for stadium, wind and heat/humidity levels too? Do you adjust pitching matchups as pitch counts get deeper and adjust for at bat appearances too?

                                                                    Also, why aren't you grading your bets vs the no vig pinnacle closer? I usually grade off of pinnacle and other market closers depending on sport. I've found different sports to have more predictive closers at books other than pinnacle. I don't know whether this is because the recent agent busts stymied volume being bet, or it's just variance or whether the other books are just the market leaders in some areas now.

                                                                    Just a friendly piece of advice as well don't post more than a handful of plays. If your model turns out to have predictive value and can continuously beat the market prices for MLB totals don't degrade its edge by posting about it. There's more value in joining/being employed by syndicates or just betting yourself. Going tout is just lol though.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ghislaine
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-14-10
                                                                      • 1131

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Got TB/COL over 9 -110 @bet365 again
                                                                      Thanks for all Your hard work man ! The thread is a delight, I study every post
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • matthew919
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 11-21-12
                                                                        • 421

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Originally posted by ghislaine
                                                                        Got TB/COL over 9 -110 @bet365 again
                                                                        Thanks for all Your hard work man ! The thread is a delight, I study every post
                                                                        Yeah, I hit that one again for o9 +105 this morning. Everyone jocking Matt Moore here. I'm not drinking the kool aid either.
                                                                        Comment
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