Model for estimating MLB run totals. Now time to beta test.

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  • Hustler11
    SBR Sharp
    • 09-07-12
    • 356

    #141
    Originally posted by matthew919
    You are asking the wrong question.
    What do you mean?
    Comment
    • matthew919
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-21-12
      • 421

      #142
      Three more for 4/27:

      COL/ARI u9.5 -110,
      TEX/MIN u8 +105,
      ATL/DET u8 -105
      Comment
      • matthew919
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-21-12
        • 421

        #143
        Update through 4/26:

        UNDER WAGERS
        Line movement accordance: 26-6-2
        Avg movement: -8.26c

        OVER WAGERS
        Line movement accordance: 7-5-1
        Avg movement: +4.69c
        Comment
        • GreekMagic
          SBR High Roller
          • 08-18-11
          • 181

          #144
          Another amazing night!
          Tailing once more
          Comment
          • alamo
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-21-09
            • 7131

            #145
            Well done Matthew !
            Comment
            • matthew919
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-21-12
              • 421

              #146
              Looks like we get a do-over of the Kazmir/Santana matchup. For 4/27:

              CLE/KC u9 -115
              Comment
              • matthew919
                SBR Sharp
                • 11-21-12
                • 421

                #147
                Last one for 4/27, I promise:

                SF/SD u7.5 -103
                Comment
                • matthew919
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 11-21-12
                  • 421

                  #148
                  Early play for tomorrow, 4/28:

                  BAL/OAK u8 -105
                  Comment
                  • Brebos
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-24-13
                    • 1209

                    #149
                    2-4 ohh well better luck tomorrow
                    Comment
                    • alamo
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 02-21-09
                      • 7131

                      #150
                      Couple of tough late garbage overs yesterday Matt. Keep doing your thing bud !
                      Comment
                      • matthew919
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 11-21-12
                        • 421

                        #151
                        Update through 4/27:

                        UNDER WAGERS
                        Line movement accordance: 30-9-2
                        Avg movement: -7.68c

                        OVER WAGERS
                        Line movement accordance: 8-5-1
                        Avg movement: +4.57c
                        Comment
                        • matthew919
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-21-12
                          • 421

                          #152
                          Originally posted by alamo
                          Couple of tough late garbage overs yesterday Matt. Keep doing your thing bud !
                          Thanks man. It's a marathon- gotta take the bad with the good.

                          Just added for 4/28:
                          TB/CHW o7.5 +100
                          Comment
                          • matthew919
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-21-12
                            • 421

                            #153
                            For 4/28:

                            TEX/MIN u8 +110
                            Comment
                            • matthew919
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 11-21-12
                              • 421

                              #154
                              Adding for 4/28:

                              SF/SD u7.5 +110
                              Comment
                              • AceofSP2107
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 07-28-09
                                • 717

                                #155
                                What's the record , ? Not trying to sound lost .. Just want to understand is it in a good progression
                                Comment
                                • J.M. Disciple
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 11-16-10
                                  • 5154

                                  #156
                                  Nice 2-1 today
                                  Comment
                                  • J.M. Disciple
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 11-16-10
                                    • 5154

                                    #157
                                    Originally posted by AceofSP2107
                                    What's the record , ? Not trying to sound lost .. Just want to understand is it in a good progression
                                    With a lot of plays +odds or very low odds asking for record is a good question, but asking about the profit is a better question.
                                    Comment
                                    • alamo
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-21-09
                                      • 7131

                                      #158
                                      Another great day buddy
                                      Comment
                                      • matthew919
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 11-21-12
                                        • 421

                                        #159
                                        Edit- no plays so far for 4/29- I actually just bet the LAA/OAK under, then realized the wrong pitchers were used in the simulations. Ugh. Decided to hedge out and just pay the juice, rather than letting it ride.
                                        Comment
                                        • matthew919
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-21-12
                                          • 421

                                          #160
                                          Nope, I lied- here's one play for 4/29:

                                          BAL/SEA u7.5 -110
                                          Comment
                                          • degengamble
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 12-03-12
                                            • 39

                                            #161
                                            Nice work - would you be willing to at least share what stats you look at in your model?
                                            Comment
                                            • matthew919
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-21-12
                                              • 421

                                              #162
                                              Not seeing anything else worth playing today; probably will wait for the overnights before posting any more picks.

                                              In other news, line movement has been rough against me in a few recent games, where I've been on the wrong side- hard. Still looking pretty good overall, although I prefer to see the avg cent movement in the 7+ range. We'll see what happens as the sample size increases some more. Here are the numbers through 4/28:


                                              UNDER WAGERS
                                              Line movement accordance: 31-10-3
                                              Avg movement: -6.77c

                                              OVER WAGERS
                                              Line movement accordance: 9-5-1
                                              Avg movement: +5.80c
                                              Comment
                                              • matthew919
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-21-12
                                                • 421

                                                #163
                                                Plays for 4/30:

                                                TB/KC o7.5 +105,
                                                BAL/SEA u7.5 -120,
                                                MIN/DET o7.5 -110,
                                                BOS/TOR o7.5 -125
                                                Comment
                                                • TankHankerous
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-22-12
                                                  • 2088

                                                  #164
                                                  Typo in the first game, should be CLE/KC
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TankHankerous
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-22-12
                                                    • 2088

                                                    #165
                                                    thanks for the picks matthew919!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • LT Profits
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                      • 90963

                                                      #166
                                                      Originally posted by TankHankerous
                                                      Typo in the first game, should be CLE/KC
                                                      No, the play is for 4/30 so TB is correct.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HilltopTony
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 01-09-10
                                                        • 767

                                                        #167
                                                        Originally posted by TankHankerous
                                                        Typo in the first game, should be CLE/KC
                                                        No it's TB/KC O/7.5 The game is on 4-30-13 (Tuesday)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TankHankerous
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-22-12
                                                          • 2088

                                                          #168
                                                          My bust
                                                          Comment
                                                          • kfranz31
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-09-10
                                                            • 1186

                                                            #169
                                                            good luck...nice job so far
                                                            Comment
                                                            • matthew919
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 11-21-12
                                                              • 421

                                                              #170
                                                              Originally posted by TankHankerous
                                                              My bust
                                                              Yeah, I play a lot of overnights, so make sure to double-check the dates. Doing my best to avoid typos, but I'll probably mess one up from time to time.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • YouHave2outs
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 07-02-11
                                                                • 4448

                                                                #171
                                                                thanks for the chime in LT Profits. Good to see SBRs only tout/shill/payroll monkey is aware of this random model thread. keep at it.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • matthew919
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 11-21-12
                                                                  • 421

                                                                  #172
                                                                  4/30:

                                                                  CHW/TEX o7.5 -110
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 19th Hole
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 03-22-09
                                                                    • 18959

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Originally posted by YouHave2outs
                                                                    thanks for the chime in LT Profits. Good to see SBRs only tout/shill/payroll monkey is aware of this random model thread. keep at it.
                                                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

                                                                    No need for name calling.

                                                                    Not that he needs anyone's defense
                                                                    but
                                                                    LT Profits has always been and continues to be, a stand up, honorable man.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • matthew919
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 11-21-12
                                                                      • 421

                                                                      #174
                                                                      For 5/1:

                                                                      MIN/DET u9 -105
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • matthew919
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 11-21-12
                                                                        • 421

                                                                        #175
                                                                        5/1:

                                                                        HOU/NYY u9.5 -105
                                                                        Comment
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