Falcons win BIG tonight

[t-wizzle]

You heard it here first. Atlanta will steamroll the sorry-ass Saints tonight. New Orleans is done, cooked.

So many squares taking the Saints because they are a desperate team and they "need" this win. Face it guys, they are not a good team. The defense is atrocious and the offense lacks some of the firepower it had last season. I can look down their schedule and say they have 2 quality wins this season. Sunday was their big chance to really get themselves back into contention and they came up short on their home field. Now they head to Atlanta in a major revenge game and I look for a performance from the Falcons much like the one the Saints put on them last year on Monday Night Football.

Everything I see from the line indicates that Atlanta wins this game big. Falcons are -3 1H at the greek with the Saints being juiced heavily indicating to me that they will collect on the juice as Atlanta jumps out to a big lead early. Also at the Greek, Falcons -7.5 is a mere +165 and -10.5 is only +230.

The Falcons will bury the Saints tonight and put them out of their misery.

Falcons -3.5 -110 for 10 units

[cblackgold]

I think you are right. I will lay a few bills on the spread.

[pulledclear]

Falcons 29
Saints 20

[GunShard]

The Saints are known to defeat the Falcons most of the time in this division rival. But the Falcons play well at home.

[Summer_Catch]

I am on the band wagon too, just laid 5 units on it! LETS GO FALCONS!

Reasoning...

- Home team on short week!
- Saints were manhandled by the Niners last week and will be feeling it tonight!
- REVENGE FACTOR!!! (dont underestimate this, the falcons are still pissed off their perfect season was ruined)

[broadway6]

love when we are on the same side, wizzle

[t-wizzle]

love when we are on the same side, wizzle

Let's get it broadway

[PAULYPOKER]

Falcons have not beat the Saints since 9/26/10 and it was by 3 lowly points,

Falcons might win but I doubt they will "steam roll the the sorry ass Saints",

square side or not,

								Rushing	Passing		Turnovers		Penalties
Date	Teams	Score	Line	Result	Half	FD	TOP	ATT-YDS	CMP-ATT	YDS	FL	INT	PEN-YDS
11/11/2012	ATLANTA	27	-2	Over	17	25	32:35	18-46	34-52	408	0	1	6-53
	NEW ORLEANS	31	53.5	SU ATS	21	21	27:25	29-148	21-32	292	0	1	5-35
12/26/2011	ATLANTA	16	53	Over	10	23	33:19	14-35	40-61	434	1	0	7-57
	NEW ORLEANS	45	-7	SU ATS	21	26	26:41	23-164	23-39	299	0	2	4-46
11/13/2011	NEW ORLEANS	26	49.5	SU ATS	10	18	30:03	16-41	30-43	322	0	0	8-79
	ATLANTA	23	0	Under	6	30	36:32	32-138	29-52	343	0	1	10-85
12/27/2010	NEW ORLEANS	17	50	SU ATS	10	23	36:35	24-72	35-49	296	0	2	8-92
	ATLANTA	14	-2	Under	7	14	23:25	22-75	15-29	140	2	0	1-10
9/26/2010	ATLANTA	27	49	SU ATS	14	25	45:50	50-202	19-30	215	1	0	6-40
	NEW ORLEANS	24	-3	Over	14	20	27:15	16-43	30-38	355	1	2	4-38

Good luck

[pulledclear]

Wow Pauly thats relevant!

[freakydave]

You heard it here first. Atlanta will steamroll the sorry-ass Saints tonight. New Orleans is done, cooked.

So many squares taking the Saints because they are a desperate team and they "need" this win. Face it guys, they are not a good team. The defense is atrocious and the offense lacks some of the firepower it had last season. I can look down their schedule and say they have 2 quality wins this season. Sunday was their big chance to really get themselves back into contention and they came up short on their home field. Now they head to Atlanta in a major revenge game and I look for a performance from the Falcons much like the one the Saints put on them last year on Monday Night Football.

Everything I see from the line indicates that Atlanta wins this game big. Falcons are -3 1H at the greek with the Saints being juiced heavily indicating to me that they will collect on the juice as Atlanta jumps out to a big lead early. Also at the Greek, Falcons -7.5 is a mere +165 and -10.5 is only +230.

The Falcons will bury the Saints tonight and put them out of their misery.

Falcons -3.5 -110 for 10 units

+1

I am on it also

GL

[suicidekings]

8 of 11 games the Falcons have played this year have been one score games, including 5 of their last 6. They BARELY escaped with wins over powerhouses like Carolina and Oakland, and they've only dominated San Diego and Philadelphia, who are arguably the two most dysfunctional teams in the NFL.

So the Saints lose to a team that's probably the best in the NFL (or at least the top 3), and suddenly that invalidates them as a threat? You're showing WAY too much faith in Atlanta.

[Big Bear]

Good luck pal i'm on it with you

[PAULYPOKER]

Saints got embarrassed by the best team in the NFL last week,

Saints are the neighborhood bully when it comes to the NFC south,

they got to retaliate on someone,

just sayin

[t-wizzle]

8 of 11 games the Falcons have played this year have been one score games, including 5 of their last 6. They BARELY escaped with wins over powerhouses like Carolina and Oakland, and they've only dominated San Diego and Philadelphia, who are arguably the two most dysfunctional teams in the NFL.

So the Saints lose to a team that's probably the best in the NFL (or at least the top 3), and suddenly that invalidates them as a threat? You're showing WAY too much faith in Atlanta.

You are what you are in the NFL. The Saints are a 5-6 football team. The Falcons are 9-1.

I haven't shown faith in Atlanta all season. Tonight is the night I will.

[Carseller4]

Saints 38
Falcons 24

[CDMKMP]

Falcons have not beat the Saints since 9/26/10 and it was by 3 lowly points,

Falcons might win but I doubt they will "steam roll the the sorry ass Saints",

square side or not,

								Rushing	Passing		Turnovers		Penalties
Date	Teams	Score	Line	Result	Half	FD	TOP	ATT-YDS	CMP-ATT	YDS	FL	INT	PEN-YDS
11/11/2012	ATLANTA	27	-2	Over	17	25	32:35	18-46	34-52	408	0	1	6-53
	NEW ORLEANS	31	53.5	SU ATS	21	21	27:25	29-148	21-32	292	0	1	5-35
12/26/2011	ATLANTA	16	53	Over	10	23	33:19	14-35	40-61	434	1	0	7-57
	NEW ORLEANS	45	-7	SU ATS	21	26	26:41	23-164	23-39	299	0	2	4-46
11/13/2011	NEW ORLEANS	26	49.5	SU ATS	10	18	30:03	16-41	30-43	322	0	0	8-79
	ATLANTA	23	0	Under	6	30	36:32	32-138	29-52	343	0	1	10-85
12/27/2010	NEW ORLEANS	17	50	SU ATS	10	23	36:35	24-72	35-49	296	0	2	8-92
	ATLANTA	14	-2	Under	7	14	23:25	22-75	15-29	140	2	0	1-10
9/26/2010	ATLANTA	27	49	SU ATS	14	25	45:50	50-202	19-30	215	1	0	6-40
	NEW ORLEANS	24	-3	Over	14	20	27:15	16-43	30-38	355	1	2	4-38

Good luck

Yeah but like they say in stocks "past performance is not an indicator of future results." Saints are way more crippled this year compared to those past teams, heck they don't even have the same coach right now.

Kinda curious where you pulled that data from though, if you don't mind sharing...

[PAULYPOKER]

Kinda curious where you pulled that data from though, if you don't mind sharing...

[double]

Falcons -3 and under 55 is my play. Good luck gentlemen!

[crackerjack]

You are what you are in the NFL.

They are who we thought they were. If you want to crown their asses, crown their asses. But they are who we thought they were.

[Goat Milk]

Falcons are not capable of blowing out the saints.

[suicidekings]

You are what you are in the NFL. The Saints are a 5-6 football team. The Falcons are 9-1.

I haven't shown faith in Atlanta all season. Tonight is the night I will.

So you think teams in the NFL are consistent throughout the season, while dealing with injuries and schedule imbalance? That's 100% wrong.

It's no surprise that the Falcons started the season strong with that weak schedule, but when you remove W-L record from the equation, as you should if you're actually interested in how good the team really is, then the Falcons aren't even a top 10 team.

For reference, Football Outsiders has them ranked at 12th, with New Orleans 16th in terms of total efficiency.

[tatddy]

8 of 11 games the Falcons have played this year have been one score games, including 5 of their last 6. They BARELY escaped with wins over powerhouses like Carolina and Oakland, and they've only dominated San Diego and Philadelphia, who are arguably the two most dysfunctional teams in the NFL.

So the Saints lose to a team that's probably the best in the NFL (or at least the top 3), and suddenly that invalidates them as a threat? You're showing WAY too much faith in Atlanta.

This guy gets it. Don't get carried away with a primtime play. Your best action will be live betting if that's an option for you.

[t-wizzle]

So you think teams in the NFL are consistent throughout the season, while dealing with injuries and schedule imbalance? That's 100% wrong.

It's no surprise that the Falcons started the season strong with that weak schedule, but when you remove W-L record from the equation, as you should if you're actually interested in how good the team really is, then the Falcons aren't even a top 10 team.

SK it's the nfl. The league of parody. A 9-1 team deserves credit. I have not been a big believer in Atlanta but it's time to give them their due. I strongly believe that in the nfl, you are what your record says you are. Now that doesn't mean that I can't be skeptical of certain teams and I am still skeptical of the Falcons long-term but they are the superior team and from a situational standpoint, I think they are clearly the play tonight.

[chino_09]

Based on strength of schedule comparison to last season, ATL has the 6th easiest schedule with respect to cumulative opponents' winning percentage. ATL hasn't "steam-rolled" any legitimate team this season and have been sweating bullets in every singe home-game...beating AZ by 4, Carolina by 2, Oakland by 3??? Taking the points with the Saints and Under for me.

[rainman416]

Saint's started off the season in absolute trash form.. The bounty Scandal hit them hard, they missed peyton early and YES they nearly achieved the worst defensive yards per game AVG in the history of the NFL... However...

Since getting back on track after losing by one to the "then" hot GB packers, Saints have gone 5-2 including wins against ATL, and the underrated Bucs.

Saints are a dome team as well and rivals in ATL so the homefield advantage that ATL usually utilizes very well, is lost in this game. ATL will want revenge, but the Saints WANTing ness will equal or dominate the falcons' who are now pretty much locked into as division champs. Not suggesting they won't give it everything.. but the revenge angle is weak and likely irrelevant..

Not saying this is a make or break thing, but it's interesting to know that the Saints had egg's thrown at them by airport employees while arriving in ATL.. just to add flavor to this already bitter rivalry.

Saints need this win.. that's not irrelevant.. Don't lose sight of the fact that this team hasn't changed a whole lot since they won the super bowl in prime fashion in 2009, aside from their all star coach who's absence they seem to have now recovered from.

TBH I see no value in betting the falcons here who have been trending negatively in their last 8 games where, despite being 7-1 they have only won by more than a score in one of those games which was against philly..
They barely beat CAR (by 2), OAK (by 3), DAL (by 6), ARI (by 5) - which were all in ATL by the way... then last week Jusssssst finished off the Bucs by 1 point..

Can they beat the saints tonight? Sure.. do they need to? No. If they do win, I don't see it being by much.. maybe 4-5 points MAX.. the value here is in the hot handed Brees/Graham combo, with a newly found explosive running game in Ivory, Thomas and Ingram, a defense that has now recovered from their brutal start.. again.. not a player issue as much as a coaching issue..

This game has Saints+3.5 value written ALLL over it.. and after reading your post and writing this reply I'm feeling much better about the play win or lose.

Saints+3.5 (x7 units)
Saints-ML (x3 units)

Wouldn't be suprised if this game turned into a nasty shoot-out.. Will be looking to tease this game as well (imo almost a lock).. but I don't like that word..

Saints+10.0
OVER 50.5
@+102

BOL either way, will be the first to call it if I'm off.. but I will be risking my +55 unit season here in a confident way regardless.

[ChiLLx]

I get the feeling Atlanta is due for a letdown

[rainman416]

I like ATL, was alllll over the ML last weekend where I agree it was time to give them their due credit.. but backing ATL tonight is a mistake . ML is +170 tonight.. REALlly? That's got more value than a brown guy flea market clearance sale. Jump on fella's

[PAULYPOKER]

New Orleans$85,785

Atlanta$226,670

ATL looks to be the Square side according to beta consensus................

[PhillyFlyers]

I think I'm going to go with NO.

[fitguy67]

SK it's the nfl. The league of parody.

I think you mean "parity"...but your sentence is unfortunately very accurate as is, particularly this year with the amateur-hour officiating.

[t-wizzle]

I think you mean "parity"...but your sentence is unfortunately very accurate as is, particularly this year with the amateur-hour officiating.

Lol yes you're right. That's a pretty bad spelling error right there.

[PAULYPOKER]

New Orleans$85,785

Atlanta$226,670

ATL looks to be the Square side according to beta consensus................

Consensus Update

New Orleans$97,094
Atlanta$252,867

[DennisGreen]

Tough call on this one tonight. I always like a team with something to play for against a team with no desperation.

I think the Saints have a mental edge as well knowing they are the only team to beat the Falcons this year.

Gut says Saints for me. Will be a beauty game either way

[brewersMKE]

i put 2 units on saints +3

[SXRD71]

Dirty birds clinch the division tonight.
Revenge on Saint's to put them out of their misery.