Falcons win BIG tonight

[possum11]

the square side would be determined by the number of bettors on one side not the amount of money on one side, correct? sports insights is showing 56% of the bets on the saints, making that the square side. but if the money is really is really that far apart i don't understand why the line hasn't moved more towards ATL -4 or -4.5

[Dexter]

You heard it here first. Atlanta will steamroll the sorry-ass Saints tonight. New Orleans is done, cooked.

So many squares taking the Saints because they are a desperate team and they "need" this win. Face it guys, they are not a good team. The defense is atrocious and the offense lacks some of the firepower it had last season. I can look down their schedule and say they have 2 quality wins this season. Sunday was their big chance to really get themselves back into contention and they came up short on their home field. Now they head to Atlanta in a major revenge game and I look for a performance from the Falcons much like the one the Saints put on them last year on Monday Night Football.

Everything I see from the line indicates that Atlanta wins this game big. Falcons are -3 1H at the greek with the Saints being juiced heavily indicating to me that they will collect on the juice as Atlanta jumps out to a big lead early. Also at the Greek, Falcons -7.5 is a mere +165 and -10.5 is only +230.

The Falcons will bury the Saints tonight and put them out of their misery.

Falcons -3.5 -110 for 10 units

hope you're right....i need to get goin already in the nfl.

[Dexter]

New Orleans$85,785

Atlanta$226,670

ATL looks to be the Square side according to beta consensus................

interesting - i never knew that $$$ on a play equated to "square/sharp" labels....

were you being serious pauly? i know you joke a lot...

[MakeitRain]

I love that most of you are saying the falcons. Took Saints +4 for 3 units.

[PAULYPOKER]

New Orleans$85,785

Atlanta$226,670

ATL looks to be the Square side according to beta consensus................

Consensus Update

New Orleans$97,094
Atlanta$252,867

Update as of 7:18PM
New Orleans$127,400
Atlanta$287,277

[Big Bear]

So i guess sharp money on the dirty birds

[PAULYPOKER]

interesting - i never knew that $$$ on a play equated to "square/sharp" labels....

were you being serious pauly? i know you joke a lot...

A Square side is the side that is enticed or manipulated by a tasty line which oddsmakers provide.............

[paco]

Gl twizz

[t-wizzle]

Gl twizz

Thanks paco.

[PAULYPOKER]

interesting - i never knew that $$$ on a play equated to "square/sharp" labels....

were you being serious pauly? i know you joke a lot...

For instance if you were a bookmaker and you had one sided or 70% action on the ATS of-3.5

What would you do to even the action out?

A.move the line a half point until the action evens

b.leave it where it is and hope it evens out

c.leave it where it is because you the book are betting on the underdog to cover

[suicidekings]

Update as of 7:18PM
New Orleans$127,400
Atlanta$287,277

Are these figures including just the spread? Or the ML too?

[PAULYPOKER]

Are these figures including just the spread? Or the ML too?

Spread.............

[suicidekings]

Spread.............

Probably have to correct it a bit to account for those opting for -3 (-135) instead of -3.5 (-110), but still very one-sided. And it certainly reinforces that the public betting % numbers that are listed everywhere do not tell the whole story. Money is what counts, not number of bets.

[coop]

where are these dollar amounts from...?

[PAULYPOKER]

where are these dollar amounts from...?

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/consensus/

[Lee Jones]

Saints ML

[PAULYPOKER]

Looks like the books are calling for a 3 point ATL win....................

[Dexter]

A Square side is the side that is enticed or manipulated by a tasty line which oddsmakers provide.............

thank you for that lesson paulypoker...

[paco]

None of that matters cuz saints are lock of the year

[Speedy88]

Good luck Wizzle. Your right on in your analysis. Saints are crap. Only reason why the Saints are still in the playoff discussion is because Brees covers up so many of the Saints' flaws. They can't stop anyone on defense, and they still struggle to run the ball.

Agreed, if NO was going to make any type of playoff push, they needed to beat SF at home. They're pretty much dead, and if they lose tonight, put a fork in them.

[double]

None of that matters cuz saints are lock of the year

Surely Paco is on the Falcons. This confirms it.

[PAULYPOKER]

None of that matters cuz saints are lock of the year

@+3.5 that is.....................

[t-wizzle]

Good luck Wizzle. Your right on in your analysis. Saints are crap. Only reason why the Saints are still in the playoff discussion is because Brees covers up so many of the Saints' flaws. They can't stop anyone on defense, and they still struggle to run the ball.

Agreed, if NO was going to make any type of playoff push, they needed to beat SF at home. They're pretty much dead, and if they lose tonight, put a fork in them.

Thanks Speedy. Get the fork ready.

[Dexter]

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/consensus/

how did you set that up on your live odds page that it gives you $$ wagered?

[t-wizzle]

how did you set that up on your live odds page that it gives you $$ wagered?

Those #'s are prob from 5Dimes. That's interesting, I've never seen that. Still probably won't use it, it just kinda complicates things I think.

[PAULYPOKER]

how did you set that up on your live odds page that it gives you $$ wagered?

You can't unless you have them opened side by side in separate windows..............

[t-wizzle]

Forgot to mention the fact that Saints are coming off a game against the Niners in which they were physically beat up. Now on a short week they have to play a huge game. New Orleans looks beat.

[Bdolan33]

Saints are up to +300 on live betting, wtf is going on

[t-wizzle]

Keep throwin picks Brees.

[Parligod]

I dropped on Saints ML just because I think they have a shot at winning here. They match up well vs. Falcons and excepting last week they're still playing much more composed than they started out this season. I also give some leeway given the 49ers are the best team right now imo. At this writing Brees just threw his 1st interception which is bad for me, so we'll see.

[AnthonyColes]

Falcons are over rated. When you guys gonna learn.

[paco]

Under is free money.

[t-wizzle]

Keep it going Atlanta.

[You mad bro]

Under is free money.

Nice call on te eagles monday night

[You mad bro]

Falcons are over rated. When you guys gonna learn.

Raping the saints tonight