Dos Santos vs Cain Dec 29

bjpenn85 · 11-19-12, 08:40 PM

Its a close fight

illmatick · 11-19-12, 08:43 PM

big play on Santos here. I see the line closing closer to-170.

BIGDAY · 11-19-12, 08:51 PM

Velasquez didn't seem himself the first time.

Fight not to go the dist is an absolute LOCK

hels · 11-19-12, 08:53 PM

-200 JDS

+180 Velasquez

PunisherIND · 11-19-12, 09:03 PM

Cain itd for me

sean2000 · 11-19-12, 09:10 PM

How much do you guys usually bet on ufc/boxing fights?

King Mayan · 11-19-12, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Velasquez didn't seem himself the first time.

that puto Dos Santos won't see what's coming this time..

El Nino · 11-19-12, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by sean2000

Why are the odds so close on this one?

I believe JDS was -105 or so in the first fight. It's a close fight. Cain has excellent wrestling and ground and pound, but we didn't get to see it because the fight ended so quickly. If JDS touches you, you go to sleep...plain and simple. Cain appeared to be overwhelmed by the moment and looked as though he'd lost before he even walked into the octagon. There was a ton of pressure on him. First national network fight for the UFC, in California, he was and still is pushed by the UFC to get Hispanic fans. Also, it was almost 11 months between fights for Cain, so there was ring rust.

We still haven't seen JDS on his back. Part of it is that he has not faced a highly decorated MMA heavyweight with great wrestling. Shane Carwin doesn't count, he was a DII wrestler, Cain was an All American DI at ASU. Part of it is that he appears to have excellent take down defense. If you are betting on JDS, you hope the fight stays on the feet and JDS picks Cain apart with his boxing and wins by KO or TKO. If you are a Cain backer, you hope Cain can hold his own on the feet and get inside and put JDS on his back, utilize his ground and pound for a KO or TKO.

Either way, I hope it's a great fight! I backed JDS in the first fight and I will be on him again FWIW.

GunShard · 11-19-12, 10:08 PM

I haven't heard of any new training that Cain has improved on ever since he lost to Dos Santos.

Imsmarterthanu · 11-19-12, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Velasquez didn't seem himself the first time.

I agree he seemed almost nothing like himself

maybe it won't matter maybe dos santos is cain's kryptonite and he just can't fight the same way against him

We all know that JDS can knock out cain with basically one punch now how is cain gonna win if JDS takedown defense is impenetrable

sean2000 · 11-19-12, 10:55 PM

I am thinking about putting 50k on JDS, what do u think?

sean2000 · 11-19-12, 10:56 PM

In vegas...

Mercersux · 11-19-12, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

I believe JDS was -105 or so in the first fight. It's a close fight. Cain has excellent wrestling and ground and pound, but we didn't get to see it because the fight ended so quickly. If JDS touches you, you go to sleep...plain and simple. Cain appeared to be overwhelmed by the moment and looked as though he'd lost before he even walked into the octagon. There was a ton of pressure on him. First national network fight for the UFC, in California, he was and still is pushed by the UFC to get Hispanic fans. Also, it was almost 11 months between fights for Cain, so there was ring rust.

We still haven't seen JDS on his back. Part of it is that he has not faced a highly decorated MMA heavyweight with great wrestling. Shane Carwin doesn't count, he was a DII wrestler, Cain was an All American DI at ASU. Part of it is that he appears to have excellent take down defense. If you are betting on JDS, you hope the fight stays on the feet and JDS picks Cain apart with his boxing and wins by KO or TKO. If you are a Cain backer, you hope Cain can hold his own on the feet and get inside and put JDS on his back, utilize his ground and pound for a KO or TKO.

Either way, I hope it's a great fight! I backed JDS in the first fight and I will be on him again FWIW.

JDS was actually about a 2-1 underdog in their first fight. The current odds do kind of make me scratch my head but i still think JDS takes this.

MD · 11-19-12, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by sean2000

I am thinking about putting 50k on JDS, what do u think?

You don't seem to be very knowledgeable when it comes to MMA, so I would strongly advise against betting on the sport, especially that kind of money. JDS is not a lock, not anything close.

MD · 11-19-12, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by Mercersux

JDS was actually about a 2-1 underdog in their first fight. The current odds do kind of make me scratch my head but i still think JDS takes this.

JDS opened as the favourite in their first fight and, by fight night, the best odds you could get were Cain at -120 and Dos Santos at +135.

MD · 11-19-12, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

Part of it is that he has not faced a highly decorated MMA heavyweight with great wrestling. Shane Carwin doesn't count, he was a DII wrestler, Cain was an All American DI at ASU. Part of it is that he appears to have excellent take down defense.

Junior certainly has great takedown defence. To say that Carwin "doesn't count" because he was only a DII wrestler is incorrect, though. What division did GSP compete in before he fought Koscheck? Collegiate wrestling ability is becoming less and less an indicator of MMA wrestling success.

Brock Lesnar is one of the most decorated wrestlers to compete in the heavyweight division, and he was manhandled by Carwin, and out-wrestled by a far, far smaller Randy Couture. Carwin has some of the best takedowns at heavyweight, I'd say.

El Nino · 11-19-12, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by MD

Junior certainly has great takedown defence. To say that Carwin "doesn't count" because he was only a DII wrestler is incorrect, though. What division did GSP compete in before he fought Koscheck? Collegiate wrestling ability is becoming less and less an indicator of MMA wrestling success.

Brock Lesnar is one of the most decorated wrestlers to compete in the heavyweight division, and he was manhandled by Carwin, and out-wrestled by a far, far smaller Randy Couture. Carwin has some of the best takedowns at heavyweight, I'd say.

GSP is a freak of nature. The guy out wrestles Canadian Olympians...guy is just a sicko. He is one of few though that has no wrestling pedigree that picked it up and utilized it in MMA.

As far as the Lesnar/Carwin fight, I recall Carwin beating Lesnar up pretty good on the feet and chasing him around the ring, I don't remember him shooting at all. He dropped Brock with a punch and tried to pound him out and gassed out. Brock easily took him down in the 2nd round and made him look foolish on the ground before he subbed him. I don't recall any of Carwin's fights where he utilized impressive wrestling. Most of his wins were by first round KO. His fight against JDS was pathetic. He didn't set up any shots and flailed around on the ground grasping for ankles. I would not rank his MMA wrestling very high. I would rank Cain's much higher. He strikes more technical and uses that to set up clean shots.

You are correct with Couture though his technique over matched Brock's pure strength. Couture is no slouch in the grecco roman department himself though.

sean2000 · 11-19-12, 11:41 PM

Has anyone made a big bet like that before and won big? 50k wud give me 40k back assuming the -125 odds in vegas remain correct? Thanks.

sean2000 · 11-19-12, 11:42 PM

IF you read some of my earlier posts, I was actually going to bet 10k on bradley when he fought pacman, but ppl on here urged me not to and now look what happened, he won! so?????? hmmmmmmm :-

MD · 11-19-12, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

GSP is a freak of nature. The guy out wrestles Canadian Olympians...guy is just a sicko. He is one of few though that has no wrestling pedigree that picked it up and utilized it in MMA.

As far as the Lesnar/Carwin fight, I recall Carwin beating Lesnar up pretty good on the feet and chasing him around the ring, I don't remember him shooting at all. He dropped Brock with a punch and tried to pound him out and gassed out. Brock easily took him down in the 2nd round and made him look foolish on the ground before he subbed him. I don't recall any of Carwin's fights where he utilized impressive wrestling. Most of his wins were by first round KO. His fight against JDS was pathetic. He didn't set up any shots and flailed around on the ground grasping for ankles. I would not rank his MMA wrestling very high. I would rank Cain's much higher. He strikes more technical and uses that to set up clean shots.

You are correct with Couture though his technique over matched Brock's pure strength. Couture is no slouch in the grecco roman department himself though.

From what I remember of the Lesnar fight, Brock shot for takedowns early, but Carwin easily stuffed him and controlled him with a wizzer, eventually got him down (can't remember how; Sherdog play-by-play says Lesnar slipped), and destroyed him on the ground. The wrestling wasn't even close until Carwin gassed.

As for GSP being a freak, that's correct. There's plenty of examples of guys with no wrestling backgrounds (or inferior wrestling backgrounds) more than competing with the best collegiate athletes in the sport. Mendes is a monster, and Aldo made him look silly. BJ took down Fitch with ease. Dominick Cruz out-wrestles everyone he fights, and he only wrestled for a while in high school; he never even went to college. Mighty Mouse? Also never went to college, outwrestles everyone at 125; although "wrestled for a while in high school" isn't a fair assessment for him; he was a great high school wrestler. Rory MacDonald, Lombard, Palhares... the list goes on.

A background in collegiate wrestling is certainly a useful credential to have, but there are a lot of guys with monstrous MMA wrestling who never even went to college.

MD · 11-19-12, 11:52 PM

Originally posted by sean2000

Has anyone made a big bet like that before and won big? 50k wud give me 40k back assuming the -125 odds in vegas remain correct? Thanks.

I'm sure lots of people have. That doesn't make it the correct thing to do, or a smart thing to do, either.

Originally posted by sean2000

IF you read some of my earlier posts, I was actually going to bet 10k on bradley when he fought pacman, but ppl on here urged me not to and now look what happened, he won! so?????? hmmmmmmm :-

Results-oriented. Bradley was the wrong side, and he got dominated. He won because of a bad decision. People advised you not to bet on Bradley because he wasn't as good as Pacquiao. If you're banking on someone winning a bad decision, you may as well bet 10K on every underdog fighter and hope for that. Not betting on Bradley was the right move, and not putting 50K on JDS unless you can afford to lose a lot more than that is also the right move. You're making a lot of amateur mistakes in your thinking.

El Nino · 11-20-12, 12:04 AM

Originally posted by MD

From what I remember of the Lesnar fight, Brock shot for takedowns early, but Carwin easily stuffed him and controlled him with a wizzer, eventually got him down (can't remember how; Sherdog play-by-play says Lesnar slipped), and destroyed him on the ground. The wrestling wasn't even close until Carwin gassed.

As for GSP being a freak, that's correct. There's plenty of examples of guys with no wrestling backgrounds (or inferior wrestling backgrounds) more than competing with the best collegiate athletes in the sport. Mendes is a monster, and Aldo made him look silly. BJ took down Fitch with ease. Dominick Cruz out-wrestles everyone he fights, and he only wrestled for a while in high school; he never even went to college. Mighty Mouse? Also never went to college, outwrestles everyone at 125; although "wrestled for a while in high school" isn't a fair assessment for him; he was a great high school wrestler. Rory MacDonald, Lombard, Palhares... the list goes on.

A background in collegiate wrestling is certainly a useful credential to have, but there are a lot of guys with monstrous MMA wrestling who never even went to college.

I hear ya, I was only breaking down JDS' previous opponents though. Out of them all, I would say Carwin had the best MMA wrestling and the best wrestling pedigree. However, I do not rank him anywhere close to Cain's MMA wrestling or wrestling pedigree. That's all. The fact of the matter is we haven't seen anyone successfully strike with JDS or set up a clean take down on him. Cain has the best chance to put JDS on his back out of any fighter in the heavyweight division....maybe Cormier, would have to see a few of his fights against stiffer competition.

El Nino · 11-20-12, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by sean2000

IF you read some of my earlier posts, I was actually going to bet 10k on bradley when he fought pacman, but ppl on here urged me not to and now look what happened, he won! so?????? hmmmmmmm :-

Did you even watch the Bradley fight? If you did, you would have thrown your ticket away before the decision was announced. Totally rigged decision to save a dying sport. If you have to ask if you should bet $50,000 on a fight that you know nothing about, you shouldn't.

MD · 11-20-12, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by El Nino

I hear ya, I was only breaking down JDS' previous opponents though. Out of them all, I would say Carwin had the best MMA wrestling and the best wrestling pedigree. However, I do not rank him anywhere close to Cain's MMA wrestling or wrestling pedigree. That's all. The fact of the matter is we haven't seen anyone successfully strike with JDS or set up a clean take down on him. Cain has the best chance to put JDS on his back out of any fighter in the heavyweight division....maybe Cormier, would have to see a few of his fights against stiffer competition.

Indeed. Not many people can compare to Cain in terms of MMA wrestling, anyway. Even fewer at heavyweight.

Junior's biggest threats aren't wrestlers, I think; his biggest concern should be with more technical strikers. He should KO Overeem, but it's a very dangerous fight for him. He had some difficulty with Cro Cop's stand up, believe it or not.

The popular opinion (and the one I hold, to some degree) is that Junior would flatten Jon Jones with one punch, but it's honestly a very, very tough fight for Junior. Jones is tactically brilliant and far more diverse. Junior could KO him, sure, but a Jones decision is also quite likely. 60/40 Junior, I'd estimate.

daimoshokage · 11-20-12, 12:42 AM

Cain is the play.. Guy is injured on their last fight.. Now Cain is 100%!!!

Mercersux · 11-20-12, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by MD

JDS opened as the favourite in their first fight and, by fight night, the best odds you could get were Cain at -120 and Dos Santos at +135.

I have to disagree with you there. I'm almost certain JDS was hovering around 2-1 underdog the first fight. I mean the gap may have closed once the fight got closer. Is there a spot where you can find older lines like that?

Pinocchio · 11-20-12, 12:54 AM

That's right, Mercersux. At no point was JDS the favourite. Velasquez was the undefeated UFC Champion at the time. Very few people, myself excluded, thought JDS, a onedimensional stand-up guy on a good winning streak, could beat him.

That said, over 1.5 rounds and JDS to win (but probably not by knockout this time) are my plays.
Great odds, very little risk...

El Nino · 11-20-12, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by Pinocchio

That's right, Mercersux. At no point was JDS the favourite.

Sorry, but you are incorrect.

According to http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/...dos-santos-442

JDS opened the favorite at -125
Cain opened at -105

You can see how they opened and the mean value for each fighter and the closing #.

sean2000 · 11-20-12, 01:03 AM

Md, dont call me amateurish, I have the moxy to make a big bet like that, when i make 40k i'll come on here and give everyone some free gift certificates.

Nite.

MD · 11-20-12, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by Mercersux

I have to disagree with you there. I'm almost certain JDS was hovering around 2-1 underdog the first fight. I mean the gap may have closed once the fight got closer. Is there a spot where you can find older lines like that?

As Nino said, bestfightodds is a good source of reference. JDS opened the favourite.

Sean, I don't mean it as an insult, but it's not about "moxy". You have to understand where I'm coming from. Gambling isn't about picking a couple of big winners and putting big bets on them, then making $$$. You make consistent profit by consistently putting small portions of your bankroll on fights. If you make 40K, good, I'll be happy for you. It still won't be the right play, however, from a gambling perspective. It also wouldn't be the smart play.

If you and I coin flip for our houses, and you won, would you think it was a smart play?

beermankirk · 11-20-12, 01:14 AM

<small>Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos - 5 rounds - UFC 155 propositions</small>
Sat 12/29	1003 Velasquez/Dos Santos goes 5 rnd distance	<input id="radiox" value="M1_37" name="radiox" type="radio">+600
11:30PM	1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance	<input id="radiox" value="M2_37" name="radiox" type="radio">-1200

sean2000 · 11-20-12, 01:45 AM

No worries. "Tis all in good fun". The allure of making big bucks is too much to pass up, but I am still thinking about it, maybe i'll just put 10k and see what happens, but I am pretty sure JDS wins this one.

MD · 11-20-12, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by sean2000

No worries. "Tis all in good fun". The allure of making big bucks is too much to pass up, but I am still thinking about it, maybe i'll just put 10k and see what happens, but I am pretty sure JDS wins this one.

I would strongly suggest that. JDS is far from a lock. Cain is a freak, and can beat any fighter in MMA right now. Any fighter.

On an unrelated note, I hit JDS at -132, hoping to get a better arb by fight night.

Vaughany · 11-20-12, 04:41 AM

Originally posted by daimoshokage

Cain is the play.. Guy is injured on their last fight.. Now Cain is 100%!!!

JDS was also injured...his initially gameplan was to go out and move a lot and pick Cain apart and make sure he wasnt a static target for the takedown. But due to his injury he had to just go out and look for the big shot, and luckily for him it worked!