The rest are just burying the forum including myself....everyone would probably win a lot more if they were to ditch this place
Good work, Brock
Good work, Brock
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There's another guy that's been posting winners in PT. I won't say his name though. (I'll give you a hint: It's me)Comment -
Good work, WV...well then there's just the two of you cause everyone else is posting loser after loser...I may have to turn the dudley acct over to the original dudleydawson and go back to posting under my old name.Comment -
yeah some of us arent posting 70% in a season long thread or anything.....Comment -
good work, wantitall. Guess I should pay more attention to the threads.Comment -
Purdue and USC on a nice Teaser for me.
Best of luck
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He is automatic boysComment -
Don't forget seaweed. He's 8-3 going into tonight. Brock has done well though.Comment -
its actually 60 and if you want to count 'leans' its 85. You can only bet the games they put in front of you. But I have a long enough track record at other forums to surpass any long term or short term stupidity people want to try and identify. Not to mention the ML dogs plays which when weighted make it even more of a return.
Also add in the simplistic NBA approach of fading the lakers and betting on the spurs and that adds another 180 or so games with a damn fine ATS result of about 63% for a 175 game sample. Fade Lakers 53-33, On Spurs 57-31. I didnt personally bet that many, but my win rate was actually better that that just fewer games bet, so number of games is meaningless its all about the cash.
Then feel free to add in spot bets here or there where who knows what I am, and it shows more than enough ability.
I dont post a lot of plays, but when I do they win, surely a hell of a lot more than they lose.Comment -
All for nothing wanti if you don't bet yourselfComment -
if you bet based on what others are betting...then quit gambling.
true long time winners...make their own picks...create their own lines to predict value.Comment -
I made quite a bit of money this year, for most people it would be a lot of money, just fooling around more or less.
Not as much as I made when I was doing it everyday, but versus time invested it might be my second best year. First being the year I had the Marlins to win the national league pennant and made a sick amount there.Comment -
No price or spread and counting ML as 70%. Legit.
Looks like a first grader is posting, not a millionaire pro gambler posting picks for kiddies on the internet out of the goodness of his heart.Car ML (solid lean)
Atl minus best
Det plus bestComment -
lmao purdue is supposed to winComment -
Didn't Dad begin the NBA 16-0 or something last season?
I remember him being on a ridiculous awesome run.... 16-0 may not be correct but it was something awesome.Comment -
i made that money because i didnt worry about lines or spreads or the micky mouse shit people like to peddle on the internet.
I pick teams that win regardless of the numbers. end of story.
when all you fukking clowns can do is whine about 'you dont post a spread' then you show how truly ignorant you are.
its like putting a guy down who just won 50K but got the 'worst' number, who gives a shit? thats why guys like you will NEVER EVER EVER EVER win shit because youre so caught up in what a line does or what some 'sharp' is playing you dont have a clue what to do on your own or if something moves before you can play it.
I have posted opinions on about 75 individual games, the only time the line even mattered in any of them was the Bills game when they lost by 12, and 12 was available for 3 days, it closed 11. But if you didnt have 12 that was your own damn fault, so IMO that line didnt matter either.
But I suppose the 17 ML dogs I have predicted and having 10 of those win SU the spread mattered too huh?
If that avatar is really you it fits because it looks like youre half retarded in it, and thats about how you sound.Comment -
A little over the top, but in general I think you are spot on. I feel like I have an advantage this year in college football, and I would think that on average my picks are covering the spread by somewhere between 7-10. Getting the best line increases your chances, but if you take a team like UNC tonight and they blow out any spread anyone found by 3 scores, whats it matter?Comment -
over the top because the guy is a clown, sitting there trying to discredit a guy winning by saying something stupid. Broken record of stupidity basically.
But yeah, how many of these guys didnt bet the Bills tonight because it went from a PK to -2.5? thats why theyll never ever win. they either cant bet early enough to get a 'good' line, and then compound it by laying off a winner because it 'moved too much' when in the end it doesnt matter more than 1 to 1.5% of the time on those kinds of spreads.
Its the same shit on every forum now, 'beat the closer or die', 'cant win if you dont do this'. Here is a novel idea LEARN to pick winners on your own. Just a SU winner, THEN worry about spreads long after.
But these guys know it all, so you cant tell them anything.Comment -
Yep who cares if it's +100 or -115. +120 or +130. Half point here, full point there. Who gives a fuk. Over 1000s of plays these things don't matter just pick winners, easy
Yes, the avatar is me. More 500 word responses and hooker reviews
Confirmed idiotComment -
If you could pick the winning side, you would
a) not be here anymore, as would nobody who could make millions per year
b) have a fukkin crystal ball in your bedroom
c) are somehow smarter than books who take huge bets on these lines
Now tell me your other bullshit before i go to bed pls, thx.Comment -
The majority of books set a line in order to get the same $ on both sides, or at least thats the goal. If they went out to set a line that is truly a 50/50 shot of hitting on either side, then no I could not beat them, but again, they do not do that. If you have a better perception of a team then the consensus of gamblers, you can make money. Look at simple things like fading the Lakers (overrated) and tailing the Spurs (underrated) over the past two seasons, and I hope you can realize it is possible.Comment -
OK last lesson, its a combination of all that. Picking the right side and also getting the best price, line doesnt really matter as much as vig does but that might be a little advanced for you guys.
You can make a lot of money if you recognize subsets and angles and situations that make money on the blind, as long as you identify them early enough to capitalize on them. But trying to say you cant pick winners jut good lines is also dumb. because a good line has a finite advantage and it isnt nearly enough to make a loser into a winner. But a guy with true ability to recognize advantages can over come a few bad beats getting a bad line might put on him.
I have years and years of data, line moves, openers, closers, you name it. So therefore I can look and see just how many side and totals are effected by moves, and I can tell you the number is fairly insignificant. Not nearly enough to go beyond random chance in nature.
Books put up tens of thousands of lines a year, so obviously they have to be close once in awhile, that is the thing you guys all hang your hat on. But if in say 25000 lines a year in the majors sports that use a spread, if only 300 of them come down to being on the right side or the wrong side of a move in determining a winner and aloser is that significant? What about 500?
What if I said that in 3 sports there were 17656 lines offered, sides and total. In those 17656 offerings only 236 of them were effected by moves. What would that say?
Well it would tell me that there were 17420 sides and totals that won no matter what, and there were 236 times both sides won.
There is always a winner or a loser, the most important thing is being on the right side at the right time, and trust me a line move isnt going to factor in nearly as much as you think it is.
Again like I said at EOG this is all easily proved out if you want to do a small search. Most guys dont however because they like to think they know it all even when a guy who can do a search and show them the exact times it happens tells them theyre wrong.Comment -
Keep up the great work, Brock!Comment -
fukkin blood bath in hereComment -
thats what happens when these guys who adhere to the new way of thinking (which is totally wrong) try and debate something they dont have a clue about.
coming in with the usual bullshit..."no lines listed" or 'small sample size nonsense' same old crock of shit pathetic losers who couldnt win with tomorrows paper make up to try and find flaws in something they couldnt understand if you drew them a map and surgically implanted it in their brains.
I have tracked the system since week 3. There have been 114 games played since I started putting up the system plays. I have offered opinions on around 60 of them so more than half the game played. Against the WORST numbers they are 29-14-1, against the BEST numbers theyre 32-12. I graded them 30-13-1 based on what I said during the process. So no matter how you slice it they are winning, it also highlighting a lot of games in a short time frame. To think it might regress or is on a 'lucky' streak is stupid. The one bad week it had it was so bad it was good, due to the fact I didnt adjust that week, which I even commented on before the games started.
Its a system, it isnt going to be 5-4 or 6-4, its either going to be 5-1 or 1-5. Thats how it is designed.
I did it for 3 years at covers and it was over 65% in about 350 plays, ML were close to 50% as well. Not sure if it is archived there or not, I doubt it since it was ten years ago and my exit from that place made JJs leaving here look like he got a gold watch and a golden parachute.
but the bottomline is its easy to be a condescending asshole when youre right and theyre wrong, especially when theyre too stupid to realize it, or too lazy to go double check and make sure what they think and act on is actually correct.
Like I said at EOG, I can look this shit up just as easily as I can look up any result, and that these guys are arguing with me is like them trying to tell me that the Patriots aren't 4-33 ATS if they lose SU since 2005. When I can plug "Patriots SU Loss" and have the results spit out for me in about a nano second. So theyre talking out their asses just like everyone else does.Comment -
sunde91 with the knockout punchComment -
I fade every prediction I see posted. Stacking winnings faster than a Wal Mart stock boy. Have to rent Brinks trucks and security to go to the bank safely to deposit.Comment
