Capy's 2013 NFL Thread

[Capybara]

Carolina -3, -115 (2x)

Car/Philly Under 42.5 (1x)

[Live Bet] Under 55.5 (1x)

+1.90 night to finish Week 12 at +2.30. Another green week! The updated tally:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units
Week 12: 6-5-0, +2.30 units

Total: 64-54-2, +16.13 units

Damn, would have six straight positive weeks if not for one stupid -0.02, LOL!

[Capybara]

Week 13!

My overall feel on tonight's game is that Atlanta will be revved up to get their revenge from the earlier game, and to try to make a major statement that they're not the little brother anymore. X's and O's-wise, I do also think they get a HUGE boost over the first game by having Sean Weatherspoon back in the middle of their defense; that should help shut down Chris Ivory, etc, and then maybe they can take advantage of a sometimes-shaky O-line and get to Brees. However, I'm still a little nervous about giving 3.5 for one of these division rivalry games, so since I do think the O/U is slightly high and seems to be coming down, I went with this teaser for two units:

6.5-pt teaser Atlanta +3.5/ Under 60.5, -110 (2x)

[Capybara]

Added:

NO/Atlanta 1H Under 27.5, -105 (1x)

[Capybara]

6.5-pt teaser Atlanta +3.5/ Under 60.5, -110 (2x)

NO/Atlanta 1H Under 27.5, -105 (1x)

Perfect +3 night. Didn't even need the teaser, lol.

[Capybara]

Dallas -10 (3x)

Philly is more or less an auto-fade from here on out. Mediocre as the Cowboys are, they eventually pull away in this one.

[Capybara]

Adding:

Baltimore -7, -107 (2x)

Steelers will fight hard, but there's a reason Charlie Batch is a 3rd-string QB. Baltimore's D has played surprisingly well too with their injuries. They also play very well at home, and they know they can wrap the division up today. Gotta play this.

[Capybara]

Adding:

Seattle +3.5 (1x) (SIA)

Seattle ML +150 (1x) (SIA)

Very interesting matchups here that seem to favor the Seahawks, not to mention how banged up the Bears got last week. And obviously you can't help but notice the reverse line movement too.

[Capybara]

Would be up 6 units this week, but the Cowboys couldn't cover a fukkin punt, so instead we stand at 4-2, +0.06 units right now, LOL.

This is a real toughie tonight, but I'm riding with these two plays to start things out:

Washington 1H +0.5, -103 (1x)

NY Giants/ Wash 1H Under 24.5, -102 (1x)

Should be a fun game, BOL to all tonight.

[Capybara]

Washington 1H +0.5, -103 (1x)

NY Giants/ Wash 1H Under 24.5, -102 (1x)

LOL, finish the week at +0.03. Was so close to pulling the trigger on that Under 50, but pussied out. Frustrating as hell, but beats losing!

The tally:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units
Week 12: 6-5-0, +2.30 units
Week 13: 5-3-0, +0.03 units

Total: 69-57-2, +16.16 units

[wildcats99]

Hey,
I have been following you. I tailed you on Seattle and a couple of other plays.
Good solid job.

Thanks!

[Capybara]

Hey,
I have been following you. I tailed you on Seattle and a couple of other plays.
Good solid job.

Thanks!

Awesome, man, happy to have helped out!

Assuming your "wildcats" is for Arizona, I hope they can find their mojo and pull away tonight for the cover! Been somehow capping reasonably well thus far in college hoops!

[Capybara]

Bummed I missed Thursday... was a crazy day and never had time to post or play... shoulda found 5 minutes because I'd been thinking Denver since the lines came out, simply because of mismatches. So of course since I never got in, it was a fairly easy cover; you never save money on the plays you don't play it seems, only lose out, lol.

Anyway, on to Week 14!

St. Louis/ Buffalo Under 42.5 (2x)

Both these defenses have been playing better lately, and now there are a couple more Bills O-linemen down. On offense, I doubt the Rams have Amendola, or a healthy one anyway, so there's not a lot the Bills really have to defend, just Givens and S-Jax, and again, they've been much better lately. Stevie Johnson has a bad hammy, too. Should be a little windy in Buffalo. This one just looks like a slugfest to me, with both teams having spotty success scoring points. Like a 20-16 type of final perhaps.

[Capybara]

Adding:

KC/ Cleveland Over 38, -104 (1x)

[Capybara]

Adding:

Minnesota +2.5 (SIA) (1x)

[Capybara]

St. Louis/ Buffalo Under 42.5 (2x)

KC/ Cleveland Over 38, -104 (1x)

Minnesota +2.5 (SIA) (1x)

2-1, +1.96 so far... Missed perfection by a point, oh well.

Possible play coming up right here... debating...

[Capybara]

MNF:

New England -5.5, -106 (1x)

New England 1H -3.5, -105 (1x)

Houston/NE 1H Under 26.5, -105 (1x)

Every once in a while the Pats lay an egg in a big prime-time game, but most factors suggest otherwise here. Pats D is getting better -- Talib is making a difference, for one thing -- while the Texans' (due to injury) has been trending down. The Pats should for the most part have their way if they can contain Watt (a big if), because if the Texans play with an extra d-back or two to stop the Pats' aerial attack, I believe the Pats will gash them with the run all night. Motivation-wise, the Pats NEED this game. If they drop it, they'll never catch the Broncos, who'll probably win out, and there goes the bye. And even though sometimes Brady is TOO amped, he loves MNF, and he could give a crap about bad weather too.

[Capybara]

MNF:

New England -5.5, -106 (1x)

New England 1H -3.5, -105 (1x)

Houston/NE 1H Under 26.5, -105 (1x)

5-1 week... The updated tally:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units
Week 12: 6-5-0, +2.30 units
Week 13: 5-3-0, +0.03 units
Week 14: 5-1-0, +4.96 units

Total: 74-58-2, +21.12 units

[wildcats99]

Wow, man, you keep killin it.

Don't know why you dont't have more followers in here, but keep it up, Cappy!

[Capybara]

Week 15!

Tonight's plays:

Cincy/Phil 1H Under 23, -107 (1x)

Cincy -4.5, -105 (1x)

Cincy's D is very underrated. With the pressure they can bring and their solid d-backs, I can't see Philly having any kind of sustained success on offense unless Foles REALLY rises up and plays amazing. There's just not enough that Cincy has to worry about. I'm not as sure about the opposite side. I feel like Cincy's O could really break out here, but a lot of times they underwhelm, otherwise I'd go heavier on Cincy to cover.

[Capybara]

Cincy 2H -4, -110 (1x)

Philly with amazing field position twice on turnovers and still only up a field goal. Cincy should take care of business here.

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] Cincy/Phil Under 42.5, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

Cincy/Phil 1H Under 23, -107 (1x)

Cincy -4.5, -105 (1x)

Cincy 2H -4, -110 (1x)

[Live Bet] Cincy/Phil Under 42.5, -110 (1x)

Definitely donating funds to the books this season with live betting... Oh well, still a positive night, 2-1-1, +0.90. Running count now up to 22 units!

[Capybara]

Houston -9.5, -105 (2x)

There'll be a lot of love for the 9-4 Colts getting all these points, but I think they're in for a long day here. They simply do not match up well with the Texans to begin with, and now the Texans will be an especially angry and focused team after their humiliating ass-whooping on MNF. Luck's been pulling games out in the end, but overall neither he nor the team are playing great ball lately, with Luck throwing picks and hitting at 50%. And now his o-line is especially banged up too. Texans will be very motivated to protect their turf and douse Indy's flame. I see this one being kinda one-sided in all likelihood. Only thing that frightens me from going heavier is the short week, but I think it should be good.

[EvilBettor]

My faves this week...

GB -3
DEN -3
ATL -1.5

Let me know what you like.

[Capybara]

Green Bay -2.5, -112 (2x)

I don't care how square this play is... Chicago is all kinds of banged up on both sides. Green Bay's running game has improved, and with no Urlacher, if they can get ANY kind of balance going, Rodgers will tear them up, even in Soldier Field. Also, Matthews is back, which completely transforms Green Bay's defense.

[shocktopme]

.

Hey bud...got your message...still around and doin good...pretty much just peek in service plays forum from time to time....Post your plays..I'll be lookin...Good luck!!!!!

[Capybara]

And some goofy shit I just threw down:

6-pt teaser, GB +3/ Over 37.5 (1x)

6-pt teaser, GB/Chi Over 37.5, Den/Balt Over 42 (1x)

[Capybara]

Baltimore 2H -1.5, -110 (1x)

Green Bay 2H PK, -115 (1x)

[Capybara]

What the fukk is with this fukking kicker for the Packers???!!!! Guy is gonna kill all kinds of bets for me!!!!

[jakeloftin2186]

your right i had green bay team total over 23 crosby use to be money

[Capybara]

your right i had green bay team total over 23 crosby use to be money

My two MAIN plays cash (HOU and GB) and I should be up HUGE right now... but then I mess around with teasers using the GB over, and get raped by Mason Crosby!... My own fault for getting too cute!!!

Good news is I've got a 4-teamer with 3 down, 1 to go and just need the Car/SD Over 45. I have a real bad feeling it doesn't hit now.

[Capybara]

Houston -9.5, -105 (2x)

There'll be a lot of love for the 9-4 Colts getting all these points, but I think they're in for a long day here. They simply do not match up well with the Texans to begin with, and now the Texans will be an especially angry and focused team after their humiliating ass-whooping on MNF. Luck's been pulling games out in the end, but overall neither he nor the team are playing great ball lately, with Luck throwing picks and hitting at 50%. And now his o-line is especially banged up too. Texans will be very motivated to protect their turf and douse Indy's flame. I see this one being kinda one-sided in all likelihood. Only thing that frightens me from going heavier is the short week, but I think it should be good.

Green Bay -2.5, -112 (2x)

I don't care how square this play is... Chicago is all kinds of banged up on both sides. Green Bay's running game has improved, and with no Urlacher, if they can get ANY kind of balance going, Rodgers will tear them up, even in Soldier Field. Also, Matthews is back, which completely transforms Green Bay's defense.

My two thought-out plays with anaylsis: 2-0, +4 units.

And some goofy shit I just threw down:

6-pt teaser, GB +3/ Over 37.5 (1x)

6-pt teaser, GB/Chi Over 37.5, Den/Balt Over 42 (1x)

Fukking around with teasers: 0-2, -2.20 units.

Baltimore 2H -1.5, -110 (1x)

Green Bay 2H PK, -115 (1x)

Trying to pick up some lost income with 2H shit: 1-1, -0.10 units.

Day's results: 3-3, +1.70 units. The positive days roll on! However, today's moral is: Keep it simple, keep it to what you like best, and stop fukkin' around!

Week 15 results including Thursday: 5-4-1, +2.60 units.

Okay, gonna take a last-minute look at tonight... Enjoy the game!

[Capybara]

Okay, I'll bite:

New England -3.5, -109 (1x)

New England 1H -3, +101 (1x)

SF/NE Under 49 (SIA), -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] New England +4.5, +100 (1x)

Probably throwing good money after bad, but can't really say no to this.

[Capybara]

Oops, Sunday night burial results in the following update for Week 15: 5-8-1, -1.59 units. Knew I should resist the homer plays and yet could not stop myself.

Plenty of opportunity to right the ship tomorrow night. Don't want to have my first losing week in six weeks, so will be doing lots of studying while I'm supposed to be working tomorrow. :-D Check back for winners!