Banker throwin darts at the NFL (all season!)

[groovybrandone]

i was eyeing the minn/sea game as well. similar to last weeks ideas. minn will run cause ponder doesnt throw well. seattle's d should take care of the running game and force ponder to make throws he's not comfortable with

i didnt watch jags last weekend vs the pack. not sure who even played cause i thought gabbert and mjd were both out but gabbert played and attempted 49 passes and there were at least 19 rushes? if that is similar for this weeks game, the d line should basically have their ears pinned back the whole game right? im assuming a few of those were short/screen but im lost to what they did last week

[groovybrandone]

taking a quick look at the kc/sd game.
kc has consistantly started off away games slow. not sure whos supposed to be play qb this week but 3 games they played away this season, their 1h scores have been 3 vs tb, 6 vs no, and 0 vs buff. considering taking a team total under. they also have a terrible red zone conversion rate @ ~12-13%. i dont think its sd that stops kc from scoring - just kc's inability to score

[MobFade]

Hey guys, great thread here. As a diehard Seattle fan that has bet them every week, I don't love them at -5. All games except Dallas have been w/in a TD, even when they dominate. This team is just too young to be consistently dominant IMO.

As for TNF, I like KC+10 if the line moves back that far which it could with almost 80% of money on SD. I pointed out in a couple other threads that SD beat them 37-20 earlier this year but that came off 6 KC turnovers (5 in the first half) that SD turned into 24 points. SD turns the ball over almost as much as KC, but only turned it over once that game. Also as far as garbage time TD's, I think Bowe is the best in the business.

Staying away from SEA for now, and waiting on KC. Plays I've made so far this week are: DEN-3-125, CHI-3-115, TB+1.5-110, WAS-3-120

[2daBank]

glad to see you guys already on it,,,,working a bunch this week and havnt really had much time, should get after it and be able to respond to everyone and have some stuff of my own after i get off work later on...

[2daBank]

quickly off the top of my head i like seattle home to minn a lot this week. been hitting these seattle games all year long.. went against em last week.. have a great feel for this team. ponder looks beyond lost.. not sure how he gets anything done in seattle. not sure how this doesn't go under either.

also leaning baltimore.. cleveland was lucky as shit to win last week. didn't get past the 50 after their TD. baltimore's suddenly pitiful depleted defense does scare me in this one. would think getting killed by houston and having a bye to prepare would set baltimore straight here. bank what are your thoughts on this bal/cle game? seen u have a good feel for ravens games.

also liking detroit again this week. seemed to finally get going last week. stafford's 1st td pass in a first half. was @ home though.. travelling to florida may be difficult , but not against the jags. right?

not sure how fixable ravens road offense is as i been saying all year this no huddle thing being new to them is much harder to run on the road and not sure that changes, if the oc had half a brain he would pound the hell out of rice and scale back the no huddle a little as it aint doing the d any favors with those quick 3 and outs....id expect weeden to be able to get some things going against bal secondary, i gotta look more at cle d vs bal O...i gotta get to work but i will start knocking this card out when i get home and hopefully have some better stuff tonight..

[2daBank]

Hey guys, great thread here. As a diehard Seattle fan that has bet them every week, I don't love them at -5. All games except Dallas have been w/in a TD, even when they dominate. This team is just too young to be consistently dominant IMO.

As for TNF, I like KC+10 if the line moves back that far which it could with almost 80% of money on SD. I pointed out in a couple other threads that SD beat them 37-20 earlier this year but that came off 6 KC turnovers (5 in the first half) that SD turned into 24 points. SD turns the ball over almost as much as KC, but only turned it over once that game. Also as far as garbage time TD's, I think Bowe is the best in the business.

Staying away from SEA for now, and waiting on KC. Plays I've made so far this week are: DEN-3-125, CHI-3-115, TB+1.5-110, WAS-3-120

i agree im not real interested in laying 5 with sea either, i do think Ponder will be in for another rought day but minny defense ought to keep them in this gm as i dont think wilson capable of exploiting min questionable secondary the way tb did... 1st reaction would be under as feels like a race to 20..

score of the 1st gm between kc/sd was def deceiving as you mentioned kc pretty much handed this gm over early with a ton of turnovers,, played the under in that gm which was also buried early thanx to the turnovers...sd is on a skid and below .500 and now here comes Nov, seems about the time every year sd has looked like trash and decides to make a little run and kc is about the best team you could ask for if you struggling..i agree that a lot of points to lay for a not that good sd team but the fact i like chargers front 7 and they been very good against the run makes me really question how kc is gonna generate offense? it thu and i always play 1st half under on thu and i feel pretty good about this 1 as surely sd doesnt score another 24 off turnovers, gun to head i think sd wins this going away but as of now all im on is 1st half under and lean to a sd/un teaser..

the ones you on already it so hard not to like den, not the kind of spot i like and think ive faded broncos in every road gm thus far simply cause i think it much harder to run no huddle on the road especially with a team that is relatively new to each other...actually think last week was 1st since week 1 i played den and mentioned i thought they would get stronger as year went on, dont like that cincy off a bye, that it on road, or that cincy on a 3 gm skid where they out gained every opponent,,none of which is enough where i would consider cincy, it either den or pass but im still on the fence...

i cant lay points and juice on skins, defense is just too freaking bad for me to trust this team, secondary gets torched on a reg basis and they are terrible getting off the field on 3rd downs ,i mentioned a few times it was really surprising to me how poorly panthers run d has been this yr as i thought that was something they would significantly improve on this season and the last 3 gms they have done a much better job only giving up 87ypg,,,dont trust panthers but again laying points with a really bad defense just not for me....

speaking of bad defense titans may be exactly what the bears need, to me it bears or pass....

not to brag but not sure many were on the bucs bandwagon as being undervalued before me as i have liked this team from day 1, that said they took a big hit with the loss of carl nicks which could really hurt the ground gm (oak has been solid against the run anyway)..neither team has much success rushing the passer and both secondaries can be had, to me this one really has the looks of a potential shootout..i think both teams will move the ball and it might come down to oaktowns inability to punch red zone chances in for tds but think this thing comes down to the wire and right now my only lean is over 46...

glad to have you in the thread and gl this weekend..

[2daBank]

lot of interesting gms and card looks kinda tough at 1st glance,,,sucks im just getting started on card but sometimes things get in the way...starting to get some thoughts on gms and will start posting them, as always would love to hear about these or any other gms that have your interest..

played 2 overs last week, missing indy/ten badly and pushing the oak/kc gm, could prob make a case for feeling like over was right side in kc gm but then again was also little fortunate to get a push, so not sure how i feel about 1st couple things that caught my eye this were overs (looks as if both the ones i like it screwed me not getting started sooner but not much i can do about that)..

just thoughts/leans so far as im really just getting started..

tb/oak ov 46.....touched on in the above post but neither team is getting a lot of pressure on the qb, both secondaries have been abused at times, oak throws a ton and id expect with nicks out tb will struggle rushing forcing them to look to the air quite often as well..oak red zone offense is a concern and tb has been pretty stingy allowing tds when teams get inside the 20 but that is really only problem i have with this one at the moment..

pit/nyg lean pit +3.5 and ov 47.5.....said last week i thought steelers were primed to make a run and they didnt disappoint, they have struggled on road but lets be honest you rather play nyg at home...nyg off a big win in little d and have a strangle hold on their division, distractions this week with the hurricane and a pit team that needs to continue winning to get themselves out of the hole they dug early in the year.. steelers seem to have solved a lot of the problems that the run gm was experiencing early in the year as they have avg over 120 on the ground the last 3 and nyg is giving up a very poor 4.6 ypc (4.8 last 3),,i think pit continues the roll they have started but wont be easy, especially if clark is a no go, the over lean is pretty simple despite 2 pretty goods defenses we talking big ben vs eli and just feels like both teams get in the mid 20s, but between the 2 feel better about the pit side...

[2daBank]

pit+3.5 -115 ...grabbing this now as not sure the hook sticks around long..

[groovybrandone]

speaking of totals, im thinking under on the texans/bills game. texans d shifting got fixed cushings got injured. bills give up a fair amount of yards per carry (6 on avg, 5.5 @ home) and obviously texans can run it. i think texans chew up the clock on the ground and probably wise for bills to keep it on the ground to at least get their d some time to rest up

[2daBank]

speaking of totals, im thinking under on the texans/bills game. texans d shifting got fixed cushings got injured. bills give up a fair amount of yards per carry (6 on avg, 5.5 @ home) and obviously texans can run it. i think texans chew up the clock on the ground and probably wise for bills to keep it on the ground to at least get their d some time to rest up

tough total,,it does feel high and no doubt hou will pound the rock but buf straight gets gashed so while obviously the clock be running not like it gonna take 15 play drives to score on bills, id be concerned hou could hit 35-40 themselves here, if not that many id at least expect them to jump out early to where buf will have to throw to try and keep up, watching fitzpatrick i feel safe in saying him passing will result in points, not sure which team for but points none the less...

[jrose2106]

pit/nyg lean pit +3.5 and ov 47.5.....said last week i thought steelers were primed to make a run and they didnt disappoint, they have struggled on road but lets be honest you rather play nyg at home...nyg off a big win in little d and have a strangle hold on their division, distractions this week with the hurricane and a pit team that needs to continue winning to get themselves out of the hole they dug early in the year.. steelers seem to have solved a lot of the problems that the run gm was experiencing early in the year as they have avg over 120 on the ground the last 3 and nyg is giving up a very poor 4.6 ypc (4.8 last 3),,i think pit continues the roll they have started but wont be easy, especially if clark is a no go, the over lean is pretty simple despite 2 pretty goods defenses we talking big ben vs eli and just feels like both teams get in the mid 20s, but between the 2 feel better about the pit side...

As a big steeler fan I would really worry about them getting 3.5 this week, going beyond the fact that Troy's out and maybe even clark. I actually made a thread with my thoughts as to why I'm sad to say I like the gmen alot, very interesting trend to go with it which ties directly into your thinking as to why you lean Pit, check it out http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...play-week.html

[2daBank]

As a big steeler fan I would really worry about them getting 3.5 this week, going beyond the fact that Troy's out and maybe even clark. I actually made a thread with my thoughts as to why I'm sad to say I like the gmen alot, very interesting trend to go with it which ties directly into your thinking as to why you lean Pit, check it out http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...play-week.html

i actually read your thread and appreciate the thoughts, not huge into trends, i would say there is prob something to yours as pit tends to be overvalued as they are a popular team but i feel perception of nyg right now has offset that to a extent, both teams are in a spot for them i typically fade as i didnt realize the 0-7 mark but pit def a team i like to fade on road after big win at home but nyg a team i love fading at home after big wins on road so i guess in the end i felt like this was a wash and decided to ride with the team i felt would be way more hungry in this gm and didnt have their whole week screwed with by a hurricane... troy p being out is nothing new, clark does bother me but ultimately i think this gm will be tight late and whichever of these qbs who has the ball last will win so i thought the 3.5 was the way to go,,,wouldnt be the 1st time i was wrong tho..

[jinxpro13]

couple quick points before i pass out..
im scared of the under in this kc/sd game man.. obv im leaning under here on thurs nite also, but the odds of stupid turnovers are so high in this game it scares the shit out of me.

i doubt AP trots for another 50+ score this week, and while he will get his yards I just don't see how Ponder will be able to get past the 50 in seattle. even if ponder WASNT playing like hot garbage we all know he would have hard time against this secondary in seattle. i was very impressed with how seattle kept up with detroit's scoring last week... and true i know it was detroit's shitty defense... but as you know I was against seattle all of last week , think this is a great spot to play them.
ill admit tho im playing the ML more than spread

[jrose2106]

just a thought...considering Dogs have been hitting alot this year, specifically,Road Dogs are hitting 65% this year, you guys think vegas is saying enough of it and is starting to tighten up the lines for home teams. There seems to be a lot of games around that =<4 range this week that just maybe should otherwise be closer to the 6-7 we see more often? maybe time to actually tail some favorites again ?

[2daBank]

couple quick points before i pass out..
im scared of the under in this kc/sd game man.. obv im leaning under here on thurs nite also, but the odds of stupid turnovers are so high in this game it scares the shit out of me.

i doubt AP trots for another 50+ score this week, and while he will get his yards I just don't see how Ponder will be able to get past the 50 in seattle. even if ponder WASNT playing like hot garbage we all know he would have hard time against this secondary in seattle. i was very impressed with how seattle kept up with detroit's scoring last week... and true i know it was detroit's shitty defense... but as you know I was against seattle all of last week , think this is a great spot to play them.
ill admit tho im playing the ML more than spread

i think they win, just think good chance it very close and very low scoring...was glad i passed on sea/det (glad you guys cashed) but man that gm could have went either way.. maybe im just not ready to lay points with the seachickens as ive grown accustomed to catching points with them, harvin may be a tough matchup for sea corners as he tough to jam and is quick enough to find some space and if th4ey in man could make some things happen after the catch...ill look at this one some more the next few days when i have time but right now i just cant wrap my head around laying 5..under is very tempting to me but again still early on this one..

certainly have to worry bout turnovers in the kc/sd gm, same total as the gm in kc (which i got creamed taking under), but i just cant believe there another 24 points off turnovers in the rematch... whether kc be successful or not i would imagine after barely giving charles the ball last week that kc hands off early and often, norv seems to be giving mathews more and more carries and just think we see a 1st qrtr that is over in a hurry, just need each team to get a few 1st downs before they punt...

[2daBank]

just a thought...considering Dogs have been hitting alot this year, specifically,Road Dogs are hitting 65% this year, you guys think vegas is saying enough of it and is starting to tighten up the lines for home teams. There seems to be a lot of games around that =<4 range this week that just maybe should otherwise be closer to the 6-7 we see more often? maybe time to actually tail some favorites again ?

what home teams you think have spreads less than 4 that should be 6 or 7 this week? (i dont see any short home fav i would make much higher), id say anytime i make a spread -6 or 7 and i can get it -4 or less im playing it (like pit last week),,id prefer not to generalize by saying something like you asking, dont think fact dogs been hitting means that all a sudden they will stop hitting, honestly dont put any thought into it, i cap the gm best i can and bet where i feel i have a angle/edge worth betting..far as lines tightening i mean yea typically are tight lines in nfl and obviously get tighter as books have more info, linemakers arent gonna just throw out 6/7 point spreads that lead to mls that are way off from what the dogs actual chances of winning are in many cases, i think shorter lines is more indicative to how close the majority of teams really are in todays nfl as there really not many teams you can say are head and shoulders above the rest and not really many of the absolute shitcans that are outclassed every week where there used to be more of both..

[jrose2106]

I mistyped when i said tightened up lines on home teams, i meant just on the lines in general as they are a lot of tight lines this week, but I do see your thinking and it is undeniable that the league parody is to the point that on any given sunday.....With that said though, I still wouldn't be shocked to see favorites go like 8-5-1 or better this week. Again, hope I'm wrong when it comes to Pit though, but Good luck vs the man this week !

[2daBank]

I mistyped when i said tightened up lines on home teams, i meant just on the lines in general as they are a lot of tight lines this week, but I do see your thinking and it is undeniable that the league parody is to the point that on any given sunday.....With that said though, I still wouldn't be shocked to see favorites go like 8-5-1 or better this week. Again, hope I'm wrong when it comes to Pit though, but Good luck vs the man this week !

nothing surprises me in nfl, and certainly wouldnt shock me if favs started hitting little more, i dont really go into a week trying to bet favs or dogs necessarily, just play where i see opportunity...they def have shrunk spreads, dont think i ever recall as many spreads less than 3 as there were last week, again tho think it just speaks to the parody in this league ..that 3.5 was just too much for me to pass in that pit/nyg gm, respect both qbs enough to think neither will let gm get out of hand, id expect pit to be the ones who jump out simply cause nyg habit of starting slow at home then eli come storming back but could just as easily see them go score for score, i put them both in the 24-27 point range so had to take the points,,like i said tho these teams both in spots where i would typically look to go against, the trend you brought up pit been following last several years obviously points to going against them but as mentioned im always down with fading gmen at home especially after a big road win (these guys been a play on road fade at home team for some time now)...should be a good gm,,,always appreciate the discussion and hope to see you come by and post thoughts you have on any gms..gl to you as well.

[2daBank]

pit+3.5 -115 ...grabbing this now as not sure the hook sticks around long..

well thu night ya'll know what i do...

kc/sd 1st half un 21.5..unlike a few of these recently i actually like this one, with kc coming off a inexcusable gm plan against oak where cassel who didnt even start lead the team in rushing attempts and sd coming in with a banged up wr corp i think there be a ton of running early in this gm and barring a bunch of turnovers in teams own end of the field dont think they can get over this number, id expect 3/4 scoring chances in 1st half but kc has been absolutely miserable cashing in red zone chances (27% td percentage on year and if that not bad enough 12.5% last 3!) , sd not exactly world beaters in this category at just around 50%, so lets say we actually see 4 scoring drives in the 1st half which i think is the high side odds are not good that more than 2 end up in 7..2 biggest things is save the turnovers until you cross midfield and hopefully both teams can generate just enough offense to move keep the chains and clock moving as we race to a 10-6 halftime score! thu night shitfest 1st half unders are at 6-2 on year now but we have lost 2 of last 3 (both losses we really didnt like if you recall), it is what it is as i still playing them all and happy we actually have 1 that i actually like after capping it...

2 team 6.5 point teaser -120 .6 to .5

sd-1/un49...made this 6.5 as hated being stuck on 48.5 so brought up to 49,,,if this a gm that comes down to who runs it better i like sd to get the job done, nov is the time of year sd comes around from looking like shit to make a little push, not sure how strong that push be this yr but getting kc at home is a good way to start...

wont be around till later,,,would love to hear everyone's thoughts on mia/indy as that gm really interest me, couple teams we have done pretty well on and against so would like to get a good discussion going,,be back later on and will try and respond to anything on this or any other gms....

[Madison]

Pitt travel screwed up. Traveling Sunday?

[Madison]

TB with horrible pass D sends DB to Pats. Hummmm!

[2daBank]

Pitt travel screwed up. Traveling Sunday?

yea i just got in and heard that,,cant be good, although that cant be to long a flight is it? if anything it negates the disadvantage i thought gmen had dealing with the storm all week...

[Madison]

KC had 1, that's right 1 offensive TD in the month of October. Really???

[2daBank]

that kc/sd total dropped like a rock today huh? any news that caused it or line just moving?

[2daBank]

KC had 1, that's right 1 offensive TD in the month of October. Really???

that would explain the 12.5% td percentage in the red zone over there last 3, lol.. i know they were in red zone a handful of times against bal when i played them and think they turned it over every time...

[Madison]

Norv Turner = "More lives than a cat". How is he still coaching? He failed when he was loaded with talent. He must have incriminating evidence.

[Madison]

yea i just got in and heard that,,cant be good, although that cant be to long a flight is it? if anything it negates the disadvantage i thought gmen had dealing with the storm all week...

Unless someone comes up with a solid angle this one might a good on to pass on. Too much going on.

[2daBank]

Unless someone comes up with a solid angle this one might a good on to pass on. Too much going on.

to late for me,,,of coarse i get a late start to the week and miss a few lines and then top it off by this being 1st game i played...lol, maybe i think about eating the juice, prob just hope for the best, cant be that huge of a deal right? what that flight like 35-40 minutes? (total guess by me)....

[Madison]

to late for me,,,of coarse i get a late start to the week and miss a few lines and then top it off by this being 1st game i played...lol, maybe i think about eating the juice, prob just hope for the best, cant be that huge of a deal right? what that flight like 35-40 minutes? (total guess by me)....

Short flight yes, but it's still travel to and from airport. no sleep in, maybe different pre-game prep, etc. personally unfamiliarity is seldom good.

[2daBank]

Short flight yes, but it's still travel to and from airport. no sleep in, maybe different pre-game prep, etc. personally unfamiliarity is seldom good.

yea, in the end it cant do anything but weaken my bet, not sure it does but it either no difference or disadvantage, obviously wont help it any..id think good that it a 4 oclock start, prob worry more if it was a early gm..

[jinxpro13]

went with you on the 1st half under per usual lets cash this shit bank i dont wanna see any crazy fumbles or pick 6's for td's this first half!

also put a unit down on jamaal charles over 70 yards rushing.
like ryan matthews under 92.5 but didn't touch it. don't wanna put too much into this crap game.

gl homiez

[groovybrandone]

lol @ turnovers

[2daBank]

lol @ turnovers

nice when they come at the right times

[jinxpro13]

nice when they come at the right times

[groovybrandone]

indeed! still very similar game in terms of ball handling and protection