cle d has been improving imo and while like usual i think mathews can run all over them as usual can we really trust that moron head coach to give him the rock? wonder what norv's numbers are off a bye? id guess far from stellar as they prob have more team parties than practices during break.. cant lay over a fg with these fukks traveling east for a early gm, if you let me take over playcalling we could hit it with confidence (not bragging as a retarded monkey could do a better job than currently), unfortunately that not gonna happen..
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What do you think about the NO-Denver game Banker? I think Denver is going to be fired up after the Bye week and NO’s defense looked vulnerable against the Bucs. I know NO has won 2 in a row, but I am not sold on them.Comment -
indy/ten ov 46.5 1x...what can i say? defense optional in this one, lol... last season neither team could generate any offense when they were on the road, think we can agree indy offense has been significantly upgraded and titans is playing much better as well, the winning team hit 27 in both gms the road team just couldnt keep up, id expect this to be competitive enough that if we get 27 out of the winner again this goes over....Comment -
you shouldnt be sold on them, they were gift wrapped both gms by their opponent and more importantly the officials, terrible calls/no calls at end of sd and tb gms gave them W in both, not to mention tb and sd did everything in their power to help make it closer than it should have been,,never be sold on a team that plays as piss poor defense as the Aints....i seriously doubt saints get as much preferential treatment in den where nfl golden boy peyton resides,,,biggest problem to me is den slow starts make laying that many points tough and you know saints will score, i didnt think they could make total high enough but they hung a pretty big number, cant blame them, id be scared to as id imagine my mom likes the over, lol.... den over tease sounds sexy to me..i have no doubt den wins and id lean to them covering, maybe not messing with total and playing spread better? not sure tho, it take a lot not to get it over 49, i have to look at this a little more but yea it either teased den/over or den-6,,no interest in Aints..Comment -
you accidently wrote buf/tenn in your pick.....although you meant indy/tenn
ya the den/new orleans over stuck out to me, think its solid though, kinda like last weeks buf/ten game, was pretty obvious, but thats how this business is sometimes, very situational, they cant deviate too much from the standard lines, and I think worst case scenario game ends in low 50s....these QBs wont have very many stupid INTs in redzone, and they will both pick apart each others defenses.....
im going out to eat real quick, gonna look over all these posts when I get backComment -
i see a line for gb/jac game for -13. seems like a lot but can jac even score in this game with no run game and a newb at qb?Comment -
oh shit thanx,,,fixed it...hopefully it comes close to buf/ten
...honestly im to the point that you can just leave open spot/ten ov whatever and hit it every week until lines shoot up or they let locker back in....this is the only team that has fukked the thu night under after all!
i mean yea they hung a hge number in no/den, they had to but 54.5 is big fukkin number for any nfl gm (55 now), could easily see it staying under that but barely, i could give bunch of scores that hit either 51 or 54 and make a decent case, hard for me to come up with one that stays under 49 tho..Comment -
as i proved being a degen in the afternoon gm last week, i dont like dd spreads and tend to lose if i actually play them, so i mean im not gonna try and make a case for jax cause even if i try hard there prob not much of one, but that said im not laying the points...Comment -
agreed bank, probably smart to stay away though i just dont see jac coming close to this. maybe their backup rb makes it a slow death instead of a blowout.Comment -
hahah that was the idea i was going withComment -
i think the thu night spread is a joke, obviously i will be on 1st half under as usual but min laying 7 to tampa? bucs better than zona, yea for some reason i like the bucs but im not wrong when i say this...if you can get 7 take id take it (bovada has it)...yea bucs pass d can be had but it not all that hard to stop a one man wr unit, contain harvin and ponder makes bad decisions with the ball, bucs run d solid and not only that but every week ap been missing practice due to ankle, not huge deal but on short week maybe a factor...i would hope we have seen the last of that fat fukk blount getting goal line carries, when martin more than capable of punching it in..min pass d looks solid enough but who the hell have they faced? this team was atrocious against the pass last yr and im not buying that they all a sudden this much improved, tb has weapons to exploit this secondary on the outside,,honestly i think bucs can win this gm.. thoughts welcome as i know i have a slight bucs bias for whatever reason, so tell me why im wrong..Comment -
i am taking gb in my survivor pools this week, 1st time im playing a real big fav or a team that im sure anyone who hasnt used yet will prob be on (done very well so far with small favs and even a dog or 2 ) ,,,again i guess that may be more scary than not,,,ppl left are dwindling down in both, would have been fukkin awesome if pats would have lost outright since they decided to fukk up my spread and teaser...
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not gonna pay the -125 pricetag on tb+7,,,,if i call line a joke im not stressing a half point on any number..seems no one wants to talk me off bucs so im getting impatient and i just dont see how this line doesnt shrink a little,,as ive said a bunch tho im no line movement expert but we have been getting the better side of moves on gms we bet early last few weeks, who knows if that last, lol..
Bucs+6.5 1.5x..i will prob consider ml later on, not sure if ill go there tho.. still wopuld lik eto hear others thoughts,,,hopefully my guy sk will make another guest appearance this week as he a smart cat (not that ya'll are not ) ..
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agreed agreed agreed. i have no bias for the bucs, in fact i probably have more of a bias for minnesota. you watch ponder the last 2 weeks he hasn't looked that good to me. minnesota should obviously be favored but not by 6.5 i like tampa here. wish my teasers came out earlier than friday so i could match it up with some more stuff. TB could win the game. will they, i dunno. spread should be closer to -3.5 id say, maybe even 2.5Comment -
It is a big total for sure. But no way I will take the under on that game. And yes, the saints will score (moore is back and Graham might be back as well), but I think manning will put up some serious points against the powder puff NO defense. So denver teased to a pick might be a better option.Comment -
i have minn on the ml in a ml parlay, though i think 6.5-7 is to much for them to cover. ponder has looked like shit and ap has been making up the ground for the team. he had 58yards against arizona, only 17attempts 8 completions. part of which was because they could move the ball on the ground. not sure the 3rd down conversion on anything 4yd+ but if i remember correctly it wasnt great.
tb might play fired up as well since they lost to some bs @ no, and now this game is starting to scare me but my ml's are already in lolComment -
hot damn just got my team to go with mia tease...already bet it..
2 team 6 point teaser 2.2 to 2
mia+8.5..talked about either in here or lbs thread
bears-2..it is what it is, not fan of teams off mon night but bears went on road and pulled this off once already, scam newton vs that d, sign me up..Comment -
thurs 1st half O/U just dropped on my site. 21 pts flatComment -
5d doesnt have it either but the game line went from 41.5 to 42, so think its staying @ 21Comment -
i was more scared of the pitt / ten one .. i like this one.
tampa can throw but will they? i doubt this game starts hot. since you been blindy betting these no reason to stop now especially on this game. i feel the thursday lack of prep theory etc etc. u know minn will be rushing eating clock.Comment -
not gonna sit here and start debating giving reasons to take carolina, cuz i wont.. but i will say this. newton seems to play his best when everyone is down on him, and chicago definitely should have been scored on a couple times last night. obv don't see how you lose this ... just saying.Comment -
I only got one teaser done before the Giants moved to -1. Annoying as that Giants +7 is gold this week.
I think the Seahawks, and Dolphins are both solid plays this week as small ML dogs and/or teased to +7/+7.5. The Seahawks have had a long week to prepare for the Lions and are every bit as good in the secondary as the Bears. I think this is a defining week for the Seahawks season if they hope to compete for the division, and the Lions are coming off a huge division loss where Jim Schwartz's play calling cost them the win more than anything. Carroll has a big edge on him, and I expect the Seahawks to challenge the Lions secondary downfield a lot more than what they saw in Chicago, with Wilson giving his receivers .
The Dolphins are in a solid spot coming off the bye week and the Jets. Since losing B2B games on FGs in OT, Miami has been playing really good football and took a 2 win streak into the bye. Lots of confidence, lots of rest, and getting a chance against a Jets team that's really been riding the highs and lows this year.
I also like the Broncos -6 and Vikes/Bucs Over,Comment -
it could be a gm,,,scam could have solid gm, but that panther defense blows and off top of my head wanna say they wont pressure cutler a whole lot so id expect a better offensive effort from bears this week.. not gonna lie i was having real hard time finding partner i loved for fish and when this line opened and it was right in my range for favs i just jumped on it w/o backing up my perception with reality, but in the end scam prob pull some backdoor bs on the cover but think chitown gets the W,,,far as scam playing good when no one expects it not sure i buy that, when last time anyone expected him to be good? and when last time they were proven wrong? kid keeps saying dumb sht and sulking if anything i think his team bout to give him the willie beamin treatment..Comment -
As for the Falcons, I don't buy into the Eagles having a ton of value here, despite Andy Reid's record off a bye. I know the line looks odd to some, but considering the preseason line was Eagles -6.5, and the Eagles continue to be a team that's loaded with talent and have underperformed due to bad play calling and turnovers, I don't think -2.5 is really so out of line. The only real edge the Eagles have here is LeSean McCoy against an average to weak run defense. However inconsistency in the Eagles OL and a shortage of touches for McCoy make that advantage highly questionable. The Falcons have been weakest defending runs off the right end, so with Vick preferring to roll left, I think the key to victory for the Eagles lies with Dunlap/Bell having a productive day, winning at the LOS and creating opportunities for McCoy/Vick to run the ball around the left end.
I don't think Maclin/Jackson are going to win the 1 on 1 battles downfield against the Falcons corners in their base coverage, and Vick will be under pressure at times, so if I was Andy Reid, I would be prioritizing ball control in this game with a lot of designed runs for Vick and McCoy, a timely end around for Jackson, and creative use of Brent Celek in the short passing game underneath, where there should be a decent amount of space to operate. The Eagles need to play mistake free ball and force Atlanta to stop them at the line of scrimmage, only then taking shots downfield and allow the fast WRs opportunities to win 1-on-1
That being said, I don't think Reid is going to take this approach. Vick has personally turned the ball over a minimum of 2 times per game in five of six games this year. I think if the Eagles take a conventional approach to offense in this game, we're probably talking about the Eagles having to make up at least a -1/-2 TO margin. A team that's had 5 of 6 games end in a margin of a FG or less this year can't afford to be giving that up every game. I also don't think the firing of Castillo actually changes things that much for the Eagles. Their defense has not been the problem this year, so much as short fields given up to opponents off turnovers and poor offensive play calling.
The Eagles defense is currently ranked 9th in the NFL, but they're 27th on offense and 27th in special teams. Castillo is just a scapegoat. On defense, the Eagles are 31st in average starting field position allowed to opponents (31.5 yd line), while Atlanta ranks 1st (23 yd line). On offense, PHI is also 31st (starting at their own 23.5 yd line) and Atlanta is 4th (starting at their own 30 yd line). That's a differential of ~8 yards of field position every time the teams trade possessions. In a game that I would expect to feature big defensive plays on both ends and a low score, that differential is a killer.
The Falcons playcalling is solid. Koetter and Nolan have done a lot for this team on both sides of the ball. This was most apparent in the first few weeks of the season as the Falcons had time to prepare for their opponents. Now with a bye to prepare and a 6-0 record to protect, I really think this is a big spot for Atlanta to show off that creativity from the OC/DC in employing complicated schemes and misdirection.
I don't really care at all about public bettors or Andy Reid's record. Atlanta wins this game.Comment -
i was so pissed i screwed around and waited on nyg, dont love them in this gm but i did love idea of teasing them to +7 all day,,,didnt realize line was gonna just flip so quick i guess, whoops,,good grab..
was gonna post some thoughts on sea shortly and i agree with what you saying for sure, love seachikens secondary and agree swartz a moron... would like 3 or so as i still worry bout hawks on the road, they will compete but would like some points in case but that mon nighter had to be hell on det as in that div they are basically buried now....
den is the side for sure, as i said if they dont come out sluggish not sure they cant score every possession....i know there reasons for over in min/tb but here we go again as i luv my thu night 1st half unders, last time i had this prob was the pit/ten gm and i played under anyway and it cost me (took a blocked punt to do it but still i knew over was right side),,think i may just pass on this one and stick with bucs as i love them catching this many points, have to think on total still...
we agree on mia and they should have a healthier bush and thomas back in the mix, nyj has to be looking forward to the bye at this point ,, id expect mia tp punish them on the ground...hate rookie qbs against rex ryan but tannenhill has already seen them once which should help..
as always appreciate the thoughts bro..Comment -
always love when suicide drops in giving different angles changing up my way of thinkingComment -
all i care about in this gm is teams have been beating atl in the run gm every week and i just dont believe that something that can continue to happen and stay unbeaten,,giving reid his bye i would expect him to understand running mccoy is the way to beat this team, even tho we know he hates that, lol...i dont like the idea of laying any points in this gm and good chance i dont play it but i think phi wins..Comment -
wutup fellas.....havent got real deep into the numbers/card yet...gonna start tmrw-thursday, taking a couple days off to refresh ....
just my 2 cents on initial looking at lines and what you guys are discussing,
first off my initial lean was atlanta, but you guys bring up good points for both sides, honestly this ones hard for to see a solid edge, but I do like a lot of other games on this card....
definately have seahawks and dolphins circled and going to look into some more,....that detroit team is so freaking bad its rediculous, so many times on 2nd and 1, 3rd and 1, they do some shitty ass pass playcalling even when theyre getting so much push on line and easily averaging a couple yards per carry, even against the bears secondary....
as far as TB, definately think +6,+7 is solid and Im a minnesota believer but think this is good spot for a letdown, gotta look into more though
another one I got circled on my card, (probably be my only 4pm bet) liked it week 1 but didnt hit, both teams kinda starting off slow, making mistakes, both got offenses into sync later in game is nyg/dal over...anyways gonna look into card more later in week and discuss any solid edges I see....Comment -
i hvnt spent any time on dal/nyg smut, i will later..
gotta go do some stuff at work but thought id bring up one more gm that on my card but i havnt bet as of yet..
skins/pit....no time for lot of talk now but lean pit-4.5, lebeau over the years have been hell on rookies, dont think rg3 has seen a true 3-4 defense as of yet, and most importantly big ben should carve up skins secondary....as always thoughts welcome and ill be back later and try to expend on any and all.....Comment -
nice write. I live in philly area. listen to alot of sports talk. birds have been tough to watch this year. oline sucks w/o peters and kelce. undersized, yet they still take 5 and 7 step drops. vicks been getting killed. they can't even set up good screen passes anymore. expect more short passes underneath even though the team is built for the quick hit. need to utilize macoy more and expect they will. why not jackson on punt returns? he says he's willing. special teams need help. reid despertly trying to keep job. 8-8 won't do it. d has been solid except in 4th qtr. 5 blown leads leading to losses last yr, 2 this yr. expect more blitzes even though their personel isn't suited for that. rely on front 4 preasure which hasn't been delivering enough. no sacks last 3 wks. teams are trying to get rid of ball quick against them. new d coordinater, boles, has more player respect than castillo did. expect solid effort but unsure if offense can fix itself. vick is a fumbling machine. not sure 13-0 after bye means much this yr. atlanta had bye too. should be another tight game decided in 4th qrt. this yr not betting eagles ats. 3 wins total 4pts doesnt get it done when fav. think they 1-5ats . done ok teasingComment
