not sure i can do anything but stay on the thu night 1st half under train...again dont luv it cause i think steelers can pass all over this team, of coarse they can prob run all over them as well..4-0 thus far (5-0 if you count the opener but that wasnt really short week), im sure it not gonna last forever and i certainly didnt expect it to be perfect up until this point but like i said from the jump betting these blind all yr will produce money... honestly if it wasnt thu id lean over bu prob not the 1st time ive thought this, far as a side i doubt i can stomach playing titans again anytime soon after what i watched last week, that said it prob the best time to play them if you really lean that way.....
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ive been with you on that 1h under. with the game, steelers are just so erratic (steeler fan here) so its hard to judge what theyll do. usually short weeks they stay on the ground, but with a younger receiving core, they may be different with a new o-coord. probably best to not pick sides here and go with whats been working on thurs hahahComment -
100% agreed with mia pick. stlouis is really not the same team without amendola. this miami defense is legit, holding opposing teams 3rd down % to 26.32%. most likely be on my card too...Comment -
both teams can play d, i guess biggest thing for me is tannenhill doesnt have any wrs for stl to cover anyway so that kinda negates a adv for rams imo... messed up as that sounds..but really it comes down to running and stopping the run, ive watched bits and pieces of fish as of late and they strike me as pretty physical team something i dont think stl can match on the road...Comment -
PS, another big reason I just noticed to back MIA in this spot is STL has one of worst offensive lines in the league, my ranking system has them at about 27th in the league....meanwhile dolphins are sitting at 7th overall in my offensive line ranking system,Comment -
.i know who mia wrs are and ill go ahead and stick with my statement, so rams shutting wrs down isnt as big a adv as it would be against a team that has better wrs to begin with is all i was saying, dont get your panties in a bunch but facts are facts fish wrs are far from elite and dont start on a whole hell of a lot of teams, they are 2s and 3s at best (although lambs could certainly use one of them,lol).... and stl corners are elite and they scheme very well..
like you guys been talking about and like i mentioned this gm is about the big uglies to me, personally id challenge anyone to find me a worse oline than rams (smut you say 27th who the fukk you have behind them?lol,curious), zona and phi the only 2 teams i can think of that are as bad, zona being the only team i would absolutely rank behind rams...
not sure about "due" but seeing how i believe mia will control line of scrimmage with run gm naturally that should set up for te's/fb to be open on some play action, im hoping tannehill is willing to check down a lot cause if he throws at lambs corners very often in this gm he will turn it over, from what ive seen he seems to get it a little and is willing to check down to his 2nd 3rd read and that will be huge in this gm that he gets threw progressions quickly as you cant convince me bess and hartline gonna eat up rams corners...hopefully there a lot of this gm planned in as rams d is no joke...both these defenses are playing very good fb and is why i thought it was important to get the -3 when it was available..
i could prob make a awesome case that teasing rams and under is just as good a bet here but i am still not a Bradford believer which isnt entirely his fault as his 1st few yrs he has never had a qb coach worth a damn which is criminal imo, im finally seeing some progress with him but the loss of amendola and rams oline vs fish pass rush and opportunistic d is gonna be a lot for him to overcome on the road....Comment -
I should probably let you know that I've been lurking and reading your posts and you know handicap much better than me. I don't like being on opposite sides with you on this game. So this back and forth is with due respect on my part.
That said,
Since smutbucket's(another dude i agree with) system is similar to profootballoutsiders(a free site i suggest to ALL) offensive line rankings, these are the teams behind STL:
OLINE
You and I agree that both defenses are good, so how do they compare on the same site?6 MIA 25 STL 26 PIT 27 DAL 28 CAR 29 IND 30 OAK 31 TEN 32 ARI
I haven't really looked at your roster that much and analyzed all the players but I've read you talking up your CBs. Finnegan's always been a wild corner and he's with Fisher...that's good. But Sean Smith compares well against him. Maybe even better than him, and our safeties are getting better as the season goes on.TEAM DEFENSE
DVOALAST
WEEKDEFENSE
DAVERANK PASS
DEFENSEPASS
RANKRUSH
DEFENSERUSH
RANKNON-ADJUSTED VAR. RANK SCHED RANK TOTAL PASS RUSH 1 CHI -32.4% 1 -27.6% 1 -40.5% 1 -14.4% 12 -34.7% -43.3% -15.8% 6.9% 22 -6.3% 28 2 HOU -26.7% 2 -19.4% 2 -36.1% 2 -12.8% 14 -30.8% -39.0% -18.7% 5.6% 20 -12.8% 31 3 SEA -24.9% 5 -19.3% 3 -20.4% 5 -32.5% 3 -26.0% -21.0% -34.4% 4.0% 17 -7.7% 30 4 SF -21.2% 4 -16.0% 4 -14.1% 6 -31.7% 4 -20.5% -11.9% -33.2% 7.9% 23 1.4% 11 5 MIA -18.3% 8 -13.7% 5 -7.2% 9 -37.9% 1 -20.6% -7.4% -44.0% 3.0% 15 -5.1% 25 6 PHI -15.0% 3 -10.3% 6 -11.7% 7 -19.4% 8 -15.4% -9.8% -22.8% 10.5% 30 1.5% 10 7 ARI -14.7% 6 -9.2% 7 -7.4% 8 -24.1% 7 -15.8% -9.1% -24.7% 0.5% 1 -3.8% 22 8 STL -14.4% 9 -8.4% 8 -28.6% 3 3.2% 25 -13.9% -28.5% 4.3% 0.8% 4 -1.5% 18
PFO's rankings has your pass defense at -28 and Miami's at -7, Rams get the "statistical" edge.
I'd put our defensive front up against any offense in the league and the Rams offense is scaring nobody.
How good are your linebackers in coverage? Cause Fasano is great in the middle and Clay should be getting more involved in gameplans. Since your CBs cover so well, this makes sense, right? If Bush has a decent ground game, I expect some throws to TES out of play action.
I seriously think the Dolphins bust the over and score 24 points, and the Rams are lucky to get 17.
Should be a good game with two mid-level well coached teams.Comment -
ya the rankings a lil old i need to adjust/make changes....zona got sacked 9 times last week so they should be dropping below some of those
bottom 5 were....
GB, STL, PHIL, KC, CAR,
ya JayLA, I pretty much use FO as a base, kinda just try to get an overall number by factoring in team rush/pass %s,/ what I think....
KC had good week last week too so they bumpin upComment -
I am liking Seattle this Sunday at+ 3.5
and think they may win Su.
Little problem
brewing between Welker and Bellicheck may just
be all the distraction neeeded for the Seahawks to be
able to descend on the Pats and pluck them up.Comment -
this gm tough for me,,have some thoughts but im running late so ill post later on....either way gl pacmanComment -
Buffalo
Washington
Dont really have to play more than these winners
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the hard thing about this game is, seattle just cant put up points. theyve scored over 20 once this season with the help of the bipolar cowboys turn fumble/int. if seattle holds pats to 20-23ish then it has a far better chance, and the 2nd half of last week was a gun show for brady albeit vs a terrible teamComment -
i really like bills,,hate they going across country in b2b weeks but besides that which i figure they can deal with this play looks really good to me.... mario overpaid ass been getting blasted, nothing like the worst oline and a qb that holds the ball to long to take out your frustrations!!! not to mention as good as zona d has been they look sloppy in the secondary to me, id imagine chan gailey will scheme this team to death and guys be running free all over the field for fitzpatrick......
far as skins, im a self admitted rg3 absolute hater! (not just a normal hater, cant stand this kid for whatever reason) so it hard for me to unbiasedly cap skins gms so ill prob just stay away and hope this pussy gets his bell rung again (yea yea im a asshole, but he gets paid a ton so really dont care about the consequences of his job)...Comment -
my biggest problem with the bills is their coaching staff, (you know how I love to talk about them ) I have the rated one of worst coaching staffs in league, Chain Gailey came in '10 to implement his 3-4 defense, now to start season they get dave wannstedt and hand the defense back over to him go back to a 4-3 defense, and its really showing (obvious been talked about on ESPN) how much they are struggling with all the changes
Gailey was good back in the day, but the NFL has evolved and since hes returned to the NFL (even in NCAAF he was pretty shitty) he hasnt done shit, his offensive schemes require "big-play recievers" who he gets them the ball but requires them to make big plays in open space in order to get their yards, something the bills lack is their WR position, with a lot of young talent who are still learning the game, his offense is a little to complex, not so much that they have a lot of different plays, but use a lot of different player packages/formations (as an attempt to confuse defenses I guess?) but this in term has left a lot of these players, missing blocking assignments, bad routes, etc. recently gailey even question the teams mental toughness in recent article I read on "oct.2" anyways this all being said I wouldnt trust the bills offense right now, even though theyre playing an overperforming arizona team, their terrible defense might just be what cardinals need to get out of their offensive "kink" they had in their last game in Stlouis, Whisenhunt is an offensive genious in my opinion and really sets up the team to win and put up points every game, especially against these weaker defensesComment -
just watching zona i think all the formations bills run on offense will do exactly what they are intended to do against that secondary,,ive been wrong before but zona looks lost back there at times, i mean yea patterson a beast but as a unit i see plays to be made against them if there time to throw... zona oline is miserable, they down to 3rd string back and kolb holds ball way to long, think it high time mario earns a little bit of that money, best time to trust a d is after espn documents their problems (i havnt watched much espn this week, taking your word for this smut)...Comment -
im so messed up on this thu gm,,,i mean we have hit every 1st half under and i guess there no reason to jump ship but i honestly think this week we see points in a gm i feel both offenses significantly better/healthier than the d's coming in to this weeks thur night short rest shitfest... i guess im hoping seeing how whole gms have all went under as well (i think), hoping that this the week 1st half pays off and i double dip and bet 2nd over maybe??? just stupid random thoughts, dont pay me no attention, trying to work this shit out in my head as there always a point where a auto play starts to worry me (not 1st week and it gets worse as they continue to cash as when streaks started getting noticed i start to worry)..Comment -
short rest with an aging defense makes the under harder to take, though the line opened at 20 and is now at 21.5 (5d)Comment -
liking the falcons this week? they're on a roll and I think Oakland is gonna run into a buzzsaw. Another shitty team coming off an early bye.. going across country playing at 10 AM their time.
& I know you like them bucs. Are you on them this week? Theyre one of my locks.. Brady Quinn? Cmonnn...Comment -
i actually teased them down when they were at -8.5 still, i forgot to post and since the line has went up, id still play them with 7 point tease and take them under a fg , they could easily blow oak out and it wouldnt surprise me, i just like the idea of needing atl to just win at home like they typically do... i teased with dal up to 10.5 but i see few other really good options out there as well....Comment -
banker which two teams would you tease out of these five:
browns
buccaneers
dolphins
cardinals
eagles
i like browns and buccaneers the best so far. but browns do suck though so cannot pull triggerComment -
browns only one i would even consider (actually think teasing brownies over a td makes lot of sense)..far as the rest i just dont tease favs across the 0, i hear ppl say that outdated and all but i just dont see where im getting any value using 4 points of my tease going thru bunch of numbers less than 3, certainly doesnt mean they dont or wont win it just something i dont do, i would imagine ml parlaying 2 of those favs pays + money compared to paying juice on the tease, just the way i look at it....i like mia quite a bit but if i teased that gm id tease stl up, gun to head id play bucs but not sure how willing i am to get involved in that gm..lean phi but still havnt finished that gm..i actually like bills so of those teams the only one i dont like on the surface anyway is zona, but again besides cle those just arnt numbers i would tease....teaser wise only fav i really like teased this week is atl, possibly sf but that really it...the rest id take dog from a teaser perspective but again not saying you wrong or that im teasing every dog, just stuck in my ways and it always has worked for me...Comment -
sharp post bank, of course you're right about teasing faves; just having trouble finding dogs for some reasonComment -
Bankster I am also having a hard time taking the 1H under on tonight's game. I just keep envisioning Steelers running all over Titans and covering 21-3 or something.
I don't like either side on this one either. Thursday NFL too weird, Titans too bad, and both teams erratic to some degree thus far.
I am going to take Steelers TT o24 at -130. BOLComment -
i think pit prob get 2-3 scoring chances in 1st half, just gonna depend on how many they punch in and how many times they kick fgs,,in the end it thur night and im sticking to my guns and saying they settle twice and half ends 13-7... if line doesnt hit 7 ever i feel pretty good about them not punching them all in..and like i said i think there a real good chance pit works the hell out of the ground gm and chews up some clock where there may not be as many scoring chances to go around....Comment -
honestly bro if i am capping this and it on sunday id say over,,i still think ten has enough weapons on offense to score and pit d is banged the hell up, maybe i jumped the gun last week playing ten/min over and hasselcrack needed to get a gm under his belt, or maybe ten really that bad offensively? when i look at the 2 sides of the ball for titans tho i think if one side has potential for improvement it is the offense..ultimately that what it comes down to, if titans can put up points pit wont be able to grind out a stinker and will pass all over them and this thing takes off,,,gun to my head i think it goes over and wish i had the balls to back out of my 1st half thu night unders but so hard to jump off a ship that been sailing so well....Comment -
as of now all i have on it is a little parlay with the under 7 in the cin/sf gm, the ov 8 in stl/nats, and 1st half un 21.5 in the thu night shitfest as the 3rd leg....honestly i dont like it and prob only way i play it is if the parlay makes it that far....
but again this could all be my paranoia of a streak getting to the point it noticeable but every week more and more ppl seem to be catching on as i see more and more thu night under threads..the question is jump off and kick myself for abandoning a perfectly good ship or be happy i got out before it sprung a leak?Comment -
i had giants/under parlay. the grand slam kinda killed that lolComment -
What do teams average against Tenn? 40 or 50 points per game...
Steelers Team Total overComment -
I see pts as well in this tonight Banker and see Titans landing in mid teens for the game maybe even hitting 20. For 1h though I think Pitt comes out throwing mostly and trying to get the 2 score safety net going into half like 17-6 probably. Then moreless cruising in 2h with Mendenhall pounding. Giving Titans a shot at the backdoor cover. 1H been good to you and like me keep betting till it fails when you see a pattern but like all patterns they flip at some point. Gonna tease Pitt just dont see them losing s/u tonight and going back and forth with total but think both sides likely hit teased 6/7 pts. BOL to ya bro!Comment -
pit/ten un 21.5 1st half... 55 to 50...it is what it is,,we talked about it a ton, ive been back and forth for no apparent reason, fact of matter is i try to come up with shit like this so i dont really have to cap these bs gms and so far it been perfect...will it remain that way? obviously not, and i guess we could end experiment and it would have profited on yr but that aint what i meant when i said "blindly play all year and you will be up" ! so onward and upward, seeing how the 1st half hasnt made a damn bit of difference yet maybe just maybe this the 1st time we get the 1st half under and the gm goes over, or maybe it loses, or maybe thu just continues being a shitfest..hell if i know, it the nfl, if you been riding these i wouldnt get off, nor would i jump on the bandwagon now (even tho i dont know schedule id still bet that you still be up at end of yr if you started playing these now, lol)... gl everyoneComment
