The 2012 NFL with John Ryan

SEKTAUR · 09-30-12, 07:11 PM

John good season so far but what did u see to make a 10* play on the NO/GB under?

John Ryan · 09-30-12, 07:15 PM

20 * UNDER First half line 23 1/2
10* Giants + 2

More to come.

Play UNDER with home teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. 35-6 record since 1983.

The Sensei · 09-30-12, 07:22 PM

just wondering, at what point can you tell if a trend is a trend or if it is mere coincidence

John Ryan · 09-30-12, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by The Sensei

just wondering, at what point can you tell if a trend is a trend or if it is mere coincidence

After a three to five season period where it has gone 88% or better. Then, it actually can become a bit of a contrarian indicator.

stone cold locks · 09-30-12, 08:29 PM

Looking good on first half under. Too bad my local doesnt do half's. You still on dallas tomorrow for 10*???

John Ryan · 09-30-12, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by stone cold locks

Looking good on first half under. Too bad my local doesnt do half's. You still on dallas tomorrow for 10*???

yes, Dallas is a go.

In hindsight, I should have thought about local guys and players and just encouraged an UNDER play UNDER for the game.

mmcconn · 09-30-12, 09:04 PM

Simply Nasty John

That was one nasty, contrarian pick on the 1H under John. Well done.

Riding Eli and his historical Q4 prowess. Go G-Men!

Big G Vinny · 09-30-12, 09:05 PM

John,

Great pick on the 1st half under. Any picks for the 2nd half?

Realist888 · 09-30-12, 09:11 PM

Any 20* john for the second half maybe under 23?

O · 09-30-12, 09:14 PM

I know it seems crazy.... but I think the last 6 mins of the 2nd quarter is an indicated that it will go over. A couple quick ones I reckon. They both found their offenses I reckon.

It will lose but I did Eagles ML and Over 23.5

John Ryan · 09-30-12, 09:14 PM

I like the Giants for the second half as some of you already mentioned.

The last two minutes was due to Philadelphia going into a 'dumb' cover -2 and then a single safety set and Eli just went to the opposite side of the field. There was no pressure and the Eag;les defensive front looks gassed.

So, we already have a 10* play on the Giants and i will recommend a 5* play UNDER 23 for the second half. I don't see much chnaging except the Giants score on the scoreboard.

O · 09-30-12, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

I like the Giants for the second half as some of you already mentioned.

The last two minutes was due to Philadelphia going into a 'dumb' cover -2 and then a single safety set and Eli just went to the opposite side of the field. There was no pressure and the Eag;les defensive front looks gassed.

So, we already have a 10* play on the Giants and i will recommend a 5* play UNDER 23 for the second half. I don't see much chnaging except the Giants score on the scoreboard.

Sorry, JR. I Forgot you were on the Giants. I didnt mean to post contradictory info in your thread. I was on the 1st half under and appreciate it. Had I remembered the other play I wouldn't have said anything. Keep crushin' em!

John Ryan · 10-01-12, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by O

Sorry, JR. I Forgot you were on the Giants. I didnt mean to post contradictory info in your thread. I was on the 1st half under and appreciate it. Had I remembered the other play I wouldn't have said anything. Keep crushin' em!

No worries my friend.

John Ryan · 10-01-12, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by jbizzle

I took the Under and GB tonight. What about that offensive pass interference on the last play!? Terrible ref calls these first 3 weeks.

Initially I liked the over as a contrarion play since everything seemed to point towards the under but after seeing JR on the over and seeing how you only missed the 3* play and nailed everything else this weekend I felt the law of averages had to come into play. What's your thoughts JR on factoring in the law of averages when betting? I know every play is individual of others but for example: The Prick this week was 9-1 before making his picks this week. So I figured he can't sustain that type of betting win percentatge therefore I keep that into consideration when choosing to follow or fade some picks.

How did you do this past weekend?

Big G Vinny · 10-01-12, 12:21 PM

John- Already read your commentary on the side and the over/under for tonight. Do you plan to upgrade/downgrade any picks? Any first half plays?

Thanks as always.

Realist888 · 10-01-12, 01:49 PM

Good post...so john are you staying strong with cowboys and the under both for 10* plays?

John Ryan · 10-01-12, 03:42 PM

Will provide an update at 6:00 PM ET for tonight's MNF game. Thanks everyone.

5mike5 · 10-01-12, 03:43 PM

thanks John

stone cold locks · 10-01-12, 03:54 PM

John how much do you factor in line movement? If tonights line went from 45 to 41 why shouldnt we be taking the over? Vegas is not there because of winners and it takes a helluva lot of action(barring no injuries) to move a line 4 points.

cantpickem · 10-01-12, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

yes, Dallas is a go.

In hindsight, I should have thought about local guys and players and just encouraged an UNDER play UNDER for the game.

Thanks for the pick. Had 2.5. Local doesn't do it either

Vreston · 10-01-12, 04:07 PM

Hope you have a good season John!

shaunT · 10-01-12, 04:33 PM

Hey John

Hi John, I just started to read your articles and follow your picks. I was hoping you can help me understand something though.

I noticed that you will write things like this is 7* play or 10* titan play or 15* monster or 20* play.

What does that mean? What is a titan play? What is a monster? Can you explain what you mean by that?

Thanks.

nbballaz7 · 10-01-12, 04:35 PM

Just Started following good luck!

John Ryan · 10-01-12, 05:14 PM

OK. I am upgrading the Dallas side selection to a 20* graded play. -3 -110

The running game is vastly better than what has been on display in recent games. Romo then has play action to some serious offensive weapons.

10* UNDER 41 1/2 -110

I know you can get slightly better juice, but for easier record keepig let's keep everything consistent with a -110 traditional amount.

drew2 · 10-01-12, 05:45 PM

thanks John here we go

guyc · 10-01-12, 05:49 PM

Thanks John for all you do.

stone cold locks · 10-01-12, 06:08 PM

i got -3 and 42. lets rock baby!! I'm down from sunday.

stone cold locks · 10-01-12, 06:11 PM

just talked to my local whom I'm friends with as well. After i bet he always tells me the action if i ask. He has 4:1 bets on Dallas. yuck!

rainman416 · 10-01-12, 06:31 PM

Takin it! Thanks John for your wisdom!! Lets go Cowboys!!

troutsky · 10-01-12, 06:40 PM

i'M with ya john . a little nervous now that i see forte is in the game.

Juubi · 10-01-12, 06:50 PM

Thank you for you advice John

calmeat · 10-01-12, 06:52 PM

Tailing you tonight John but Throwing into a teaser to give me some insurance.

stone cold locks · 10-01-12, 07:13 PM

They announce Forte is starting and the line doesnt ove at all anywhere. Strange.

PlatinumBerg · 10-01-12, 07:16 PM

I like the UNDER as the bears have a very good defense, and they like to run the ball to keep the clock running. I think Dallas statistically has one of the best defenses in the NFL right now as well. However, I am very skeptical of the big 20 unit play on DAL -3. Romo and Cutler are both too unpredictable. You don't know how either one is going to do. This should be a very interesting game, if DAL does win, it will be within 1 score.

PlatinumBerg · 10-01-12, 07:19 PM

If anyone wants to know, I have tonight's game teased to BEARS +9 and UNDER 47.5.