When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

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  • turboj
    SBR Hustler
    • 11-12-08
    • 83

    #771
    what the play for the nba games? thanks
    Comment
    • McRich
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-26-07
      • 961

      #772
      Originally posted by turboj
      what the play for the nba games? thanks
      No plays qualify for me yet. There are not enough bets. The only leans I see right now are the Hornets and Timberwolves. But it is way too early for a wager. It will probably be late in the afternoon before I will be able to make a play.
      Comment
      • apk2k6
        SBR Sharp
        • 06-09-08
        • 494

        #773
        Originally posted by turboj
        what the play for the nba games? thanks
        You know, it's easy to find the plays by yourself, give it a try.
        Comment
        • yisman
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 09-01-08
          • 75682

          #774
          Notre Dame
          [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
          [/quote]

          [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
          Comment
          • turboj
            SBR Hustler
            • 11-12-08
            • 83

            #775
            what ur take on dal@por -5?
            Comment
            • Capybara
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-17-08
              • 11803

              #776
              Originally posted by turboj
              what ur take on dal@por -5?
              It's a no-play in terms of RLM. Percentage of bettors and the money both going the same way. So no edge.
              Comment
              • FreeFall
                SBR MVP
                • 02-20-08
                • 3365

                #777
                Lal -2.5 was today
                Comment
                • McRich
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-26-07
                  • 961

                  #778
                  Originally posted by FreeFall
                  Lal -2.5 was today
                  I made a large RLM play on the Lakers today. Here is my story about the game though. I made my wager on the Lakers early today. Late in the afternoon I went to the casino to play some poker. The Lakers/Celtics game was on the TV. I watch the game until like 2:00 minutes left in the game and the score was pretty tight.

                  I get involved with three big poker pots in a row and I stop watching the game. When I look back up to the TV, a movie was on. I asked around the table if anyone knew the final. No one did.

                  So after cards, I drive the hour home and I just found out the Lakers won and covered!!! Cha-ching.
                  Comment
                  • turboj
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 11-12-08
                    • 83

                    #779
                    what the play for the nba games for tom.? thanks. desperate.
                    Comment
                    • McRich
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 10-26-07
                      • 961

                      #780
                      Originally posted by turboj
                      what the play for the nba games for tom.? thanks. desperate.
                      As of right now, I do not see a RLM play in the NBA today. This could change as they day goes on. If I see a play later I will post it.
                      Comment
                      • Capybara
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-17-08
                        • 11803

                        #781
                        Originally posted by McRich
                        I made a large RLM play on the Lakers today. Here is my story about the game though. I made my wager on the Lakers early today. Late in the afternoon I went to the casino to play some poker. The Lakers/Celtics game was on the TV. I watch the game until like 2:00 minutes left in the game and the score was pretty tight.

                        I get involved with three big poker pots in a row and I stop watching the game. When I look back up to the TV, a movie was on. I asked around the table if anyone knew the final. No one did.

                        So after cards, I drive the hour home and I just found out the Lakers won and covered!!! Cha-ching.
                        I couldn't go with the Lakers even though they were the clear RLM play, because it went against my other big system, BCEG -- bet the Celtics every game. Both systems have been paying big so I was torn... what I should have done is called it a no-play, but because I'm addicted to gambling AND a Celtics fan, I went in on the C's and got burned. Oh well.

                        Had a huge score with the Mavs/Blazers halftime and full-game overs, though, so at least that made up for it!

                        I've been hard up for our beloved RLMs lately in this barren sports landscape the last few days!! It's rough!!
                        Comment
                        • FreeFall
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-20-08
                          • 3365

                          #782
                          Right now I see rams +15.5(5dimes)
                          and
                          Oilers if we get more bets on it.

                          edit; let me know if you guys see hockey plays. They seem to be the hardest to find for me and I'm also losing with them right now on my SS. I might be doing it wrong. All other sports are successful for me thus far tho.
                          Comment
                          • FreeFall
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-20-08
                            • 3365

                            #783
                            Fairfield +22.5 -108 5dimes
                            Comment
                            • turboj
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 11-12-08
                              • 83

                              #784
                              hey guys, what's the play in nba for tom. thanks
                              Comment
                              • smitch124
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 05-19-08
                                • 12566

                                #785
                                Originally posted by turboj
                                hey guys, what's the play in nba for tom. thanks
                                Have my eye on the Bucks...
                                Comment
                                • McRich
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-26-07
                                  • 961

                                  #786
                                  Originally posted by smitch124
                                  Have my eye on the Bucks...
                                  Yes, I made a wager on the Bucks -5 for an RLM play. The last 3 out of 4 NBA RLM plays have come through. I am hoping for 4 out 5!!!
                                  Comment
                                  • McRich
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 10-26-07
                                    • 961

                                    #787
                                    I also have the Raptors +8 in the NBA for a RLM play tonight.
                                    Comment
                                    • apk2k6
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 06-09-08
                                      • 494

                                      #788
                                      St. Johns, Drexel, and West Virg. were all NCAAB plays, which went 2-1 today.
                                      Comment
                                      • McRich
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 10-26-07
                                        • 961

                                        #789
                                        Originally posted by apk2k6
                                        St. Johns, Drexel, and West Virg. were all NCAAB plays, which went 2-1 today.
                                        I wasn't able to wager on the Drexel and WV games. The RLM games I wagered on Sat. went 0-3. If I could have picked up the Drexel and WV games, it would have helped.

                                        Hopefully there will be a turn around today.
                                        Comment
                                        • Capybara
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-17-08
                                          • 11803

                                          #790
                                          Good morning, RLMers!

                                          Yup, I had all those yesterday... nice start with the 2-1 in NCAA hoops, but awful finish with the two NBA losses, plus I also had Iona in NCAA hoops, so 0-3 finish to the day!!! Actually, hang on, I found an NHL RLM, Columbus, which hit, making two NHL hits in a row... so 3-4 RLM day for me.

                                          That reminds me, wanted to check in on NHL again. I know we talked about it before but I forget if we'd arrived on a formula. I've been figuring that if an NHL moneyline line moves at least 15-20, it's a play. Like Philly had 70% of the action but had gone from -140 to -123 or something like that (I forget the specifics), so that made Columbus a play for me. (Columbus won 3-0.)

                                          Agreed? Do you suggest a more stringent formula?
                                          Comment
                                          • McRich
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 10-26-07
                                            • 961

                                            #791
                                            Originally posted by Capybara
                                            Good morning, RLMers!

                                            Yup, I had all those yesterday... nice start with the 2-1 in NCAA hoops, but awful finish with the two NBA losses, plus I also had Iona in NCAA hoops, so 0-3 finish to the day!!! Actually, hang on, I found an NHL RLM, Columbus, which hit, making two NHL hits in a row... so 3-4 RLM day for me.

                                            That reminds me, wanted to check in on NHL again. I know we talked about it before but I forget if we'd arrived on a formula. I've been figuring that if an NHL moneyline line moves at least 15-20, it's a play. Like Philly had 70% of the action but had gone from -140 to -123 or something like that (I forget the specifics), so that made Columbus a play for me. (Columbus won 3-0.)

                                            Agreed? Do you suggest a more stringent formula?
                                            I need some help on NHL RLM also. So your minimum line move is 15. What about the percentage (is it 60%), and the wager amounts?

                                            Maybe LT can chime in to this NHL discussion.
                                            Comment
                                            • SexyMit
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 10-12-06
                                              • 6139

                                              #792
                                              Yes I saw that 1 as well. I also use the home dog more then the away team. Results are better then they are home team versus away.
                                              If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                              I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                              Comment
                                              • SexyMit
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 10-12-06
                                                • 6139

                                                #793
                                                I personally look for at least 70%, thats just my opinion. The more money the better the results. I usually don't play just 60-70. I like greater then 70% and the away team having the 70% the RLM is for the home dog, have had better results seems like then the away team RLM
                                                If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                                I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                                Comment
                                                • smitch124
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 05-19-08
                                                  • 12566

                                                  #794
                                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                  I would say 5,000 for hoops and maybe 3,000 for NHL. Keep in mind that these are purely guesstimates, as Sports Insights gives the vague "sufficient number of bets" when describing their record tracking.
                                                  This is LT's estimate (from this thread) for the number of bets he likes to see in the NHL...
                                                  Comment
                                                  • yisman
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 09-01-08
                                                    • 75682

                                                    #795
                                                    yeah, but we need advice on the amount of the line move necessary and what percentage. I'll PM LT.
                                                    [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                    [/quote]

                                                    [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                    Comment
                                                    • smitch124
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 05-19-08
                                                      • 12566

                                                      #796
                                                      Originally posted by yisman
                                                      yeah, but we need advice on the amount of the line move necessary and what percentage. I'll PM LT.
                                                      Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number to the close at the top books in MLB and NHL has also been profitable. Again, these records are for money lines only and do not include totals.


                                                      From LTs article:

                                                      Comment
                                                      • McRich
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 10-26-07
                                                        • 961

                                                        #797
                                                        Originally posted by smitch124
                                                        Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number to the close at the top books in MLB and NHL has also been profitable. Again, these records are for money lines only and do not include totals.


                                                        From LTs article:

                                                        http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...g-profits.aspx
                                                        Thanks for posting the info.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • FreeFall
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-20-08
                                                          • 3365

                                                          #798
                                                          I've been trying that so far and I'm 2-7 with doing what LT said to do. but I have a feeling I'm doing it wrong. Hopefully you guys can show me how if your now getting into hockey.


                                                          Edit Witchita St. is now a play
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Capybara
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 08-17-08
                                                            • 11803

                                                            #799
                                                            I got my A** KICKED today in RLM. Although I got my a** kicked in everything anyway.

                                                            But just out of curiosity, did anyone else try to play everything and have the same result? Want to make sure I wasn't playing too many RLM-leans and not true ones or something. I had:

                                                            NFL:

                                                            Rams (W)
                                                            Saints (L)
                                                            Broncos (L)
                                                            Jags (lean) (L)
                                                            Vikes (lean) (L)

                                                            NCAA

                                                            Wichita St (L)
                                                            Portland U (L)
                                                            Texas Tech (lean) (L)

                                                            1-7???!!!! Talk about an awful day. I went 4-9 overall, also awful, but 3-2 in non-RLM, so RLM was my downfall today... frustrating!! I want to keep using it and testing it, but I'm gonna need a bigger bankroll, because I'm almost out.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • FreeFall
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-20-08
                                                              • 3365

                                                              #800
                                                              the only full point RLM play I saw my friend was the rams. Not sure where you got the other data. I go by free bet tracker only too. In NCAA I only found Wichita St. but I dont check often and tend to miss NCAA plays.

                                                              Sorry about the bad day.

                                                              I'm flat out horrible in NHL though. After checking my SS where I keep my RLM plays

                                                              Risked: 12.10u Won: 3.60u Lost: -7.00u Net: -3.40u Win Percentage 30.00% | 3-7

                                                              flat out horrible. Maybe I'm doing it wrong and should be on the other side making me 7-3.

                                                              Without NHL this is how I'm doing
                                                              Risked: 34.56u Won: 14.00u Lost: -10.60u Net: 3.40u Win Percentage 58.33% | 14-10

                                                              I'd like to learn how to do NHL as it's the same as MLB as those are right around the corner.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • apk2k6
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 06-09-08
                                                                • 494

                                                                #801
                                                                NHL is easy. Instead of looking for the point spread to move a full point, look for the ML to move at least 10 cents.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FreeFall
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-20-08
                                                                  • 3365

                                                                  #802
                                                                  Originally posted by apk2k6
                                                                  NHL is easy. Instead of looking for the point spread to move a full point, look for the ML to move at least 10 cents.
                                                                  I understand that. Upon doing it I am 3-7. Maybe it's a down streak, but we'll see as my sample grows. Curious to see if others were doing it and have success.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Robust
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 09-13-08
                                                                    • 3254

                                                                    #803
                                                                    RLM has been BAD today.. usually that means tommorrow it will go 4-0.. don't take my word.. just commenting on what i have seen..

                                                                    I will be going to vegas on the 31st.. i am gonna parlay rlms and flm's (follow the money).. i will report how i do..

                                                                    got a thread in players talk about what I should bet on.. chime in!

                                                                    good luck!!

                                                                    Robust
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • smitch124
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 05-19-08
                                                                      • 12566

                                                                      #804
                                                                      Originally posted by FreeFall
                                                                      the only full point RLM play I saw my friend was the rams. Not sure where you got the other data. I go by free bet tracker only too. In NCAA I only found Wichita St. but I dont check often and tend to miss NCAA plays.

                                                                      Sorry about the bad day.

                                                                      I'm flat out horrible in NHL though. After checking my SS where I keep my RLM plays

                                                                      Risked: 12.10u Won: 3.60u Lost: -7.00u Net: -3.40u Win Percentage 30.00% | 3-7

                                                                      flat out horrible. Maybe I'm doing it wrong and should be on the other side making me 7-3.

                                                                      Without NHL this is how I'm doing
                                                                      Risked: 34.56u Won: 14.00u Lost: -10.60u Net: 3.40u Win Percentage 58.33% | 14-10

                                                                      I'd like to learn how to do NHL as it's the same as MLB as those are right around the corner.
                                                                      Freefall here is the record for the angle last season:

                                                                      NHL 2007-8 224 229 0 49.4% 85.69

                                                                      As you can see it has a losing record overall ands is plus units because it picks mostly dogs.

                                                                      I'm not sure what your 10 picks so far were, but I'm sure they were mostly dogs, and 3-7 betting mostly dogs is a 10 game stretch is something you are gonna see quite often over a long season.

                                                                      One thing I would say is if you are around the +- 200 mark I would look for a 20 cent move and if around the +-300 range I would look for a 30 cent move, for the simple reason that the price moves more swiftly at these levels.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • FreeFall
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 02-20-08
                                                                        • 3365

                                                                        #805
                                                                        Minnesota in NHL today

                                                                        Edit; Minn moved out and now nashville will hit with more bets hopefully
                                                                        Comment
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