Originally posted by dlunc3
Week 16:
4:05 PM ET
San Diego at Detroit
Teams ROT Record Odds
SD
123 7-7 (2-4 V) 51
DET
124 9-5 (4-3 H) -3
This play will be my game of the year. Since my early gambling days 5+ years back (when I used to bet crazy amounts with no rhyme or reason), this will be my largest wager since betting $4,000 on a Colts game a few years back in which they covered and cashed me a nice ticket. I am a $200 unit bettor, and rarely bet more then 3/4 units, usually just 1 or 2, as my spreadsheet shows. Since September 1st, I have surpassed the 100 unit mark including NFl, CFB, and CBB since it has started. NFL has always been my best sport. Up until this week, I had not had a losing week this year. This week I dropped 5 units and am prepared for a nice comeback week. This will be a 12 unit bet for me.
I have had my eye on this play for close to a month now. The play has set up exactly how I had hoped it would. Only small aspect I would have changed is I would have had SD win a closer game vs. Balt last night, rather then a blowout. But, they continued to show the kind of team they are late in the season and how they tide has turned on their season. I was happy to get through the game healthy while continuing the strong play.
To start, lets take a look at this Detroit team that will be taking the field has a home favorite on Christmas Eve. As we all know, Detroit came out hot this year going 5-0 to begin this season. The following two games, they lost at home vs SF then again at home vs Atlanta. I will not hate on them too much for these shortcomings, as SF and Atl are quality playoff caliber teams, and Det played tough with with teams. The following Sunday, October 30th, Detroit showed up at the Mile High Stadium and completely embarrassed the Denver Broncos. This was the last time that fraudulent team showed their fraudulent faces. Since that game, Detroit has slowly gone backwards. They have gone 3-3 since that point, with wins only vs bottom of the barrel Carolina, Minny, and Oakland (who is playing like a bottom 5 team in football right now). Since the 5-0 start, this “playoff “ team is 4-5 with their only quality win being vs Denver (the beginning Tebow, which was also 2 months ago). To take a closer look, lets go back to December 11th at home vs the 2 win Minesota Vikings , who was playing without Adrian Peterson. Detroit allowed Ponder, Joe Webb, and company to go for 425 yards IN THEIR OWN BUILDING (what might phillip rivers do to them?
). Minny coughed the ball up 6 TIMES yet, with just seconds remaining in the game, Joe Webb and the 2 win Vikings, were in position to win the ball game vs this “playoff” Detroit Lions team. As you will remember, Joe Webb was blatantly facemasked inside the 5 yardline, but the ref missed the call, and the game ended with Detroit winning the game by 6. I will not take a win away from Detroit here, but I will remember how this game played out. The following week, just yesterday, Detroit went into the black hole in Oakland. This Oakland Raiders team once again was playing without their best playmaker, DMC, along with their top WR, J.Ford. This was the same team that had lost 77-3 the first three quarters in their previous two games prior to the garbage time 4th quarters. This same Raiders team led this “playoff” Detroit Lions team until the 39 second mark of the game when yes, the better team prevailed. The below average Oakland wrs were able to get behind this Detroit secondary time and time again, but luckily for Detroit, fumbles, drops and bad throws kept them from blowing the game out. The Lions then allowed the Raiders to get into position for a gamewinning kick when luckily, Carson Palmer committed one of the sins of a QB and took a sack that essentially ended the game. So again, I give credit to Det and wont take a win away from them, but I will remember how this game played out.
All this so far just to say: this Det lions team could VERY EASILY be 2-7 since their 5-0 start. Detroit has not kept any team below 27 points in 8 WEEKs, since the game vs the Tebows. They are the 2nd most penalized team in football, and their inexperience will show in a big time game this week.
On the opposite side of the ball, lets take a look at the San Diego Chargers. I will not make any excuses for the way this team started the season. But, just like the 5-0 start for the Lions has been long forgotten, the terrible start for the Chargers is long forgotten. Yes Buffalo and Jacksonville are bottom of the barrel teams, just like the minny and oak team that det beat… but, I view these wins as 100% different. The Charges offense, that we all knew was talented, has finally figured things out, just as they normally do this time of the year. They have completely dominated both sides of the ball three straight weeks now, with one of the blowouts being vs the Baltimore Ravens. This team is hot. Offensively, Rivers is back to his probowl self, and has all his weapons healthy once again. Vjax, Floyd, Tolbet, Matthews, Gates are all healthy and good to go. The offensive line has also been shored up, and has figured things out as well as of late, as Rivers has had the time he needs to work, even against that tough Balt Ravens defense. The SD defense has continued their strong play, not allowing any team to go over 20 points in 7 straight weeks. (34 points total in the last three combined). Rivers is a career 23-2 in December. Since the talk of Turner losing his job, this team has shown what they can really do on a football field to back their coach. Now at 7-7, these chargers are within striking distance and know that this game in Detroit is a MUST WIN.
The glaring advantage in most peoples eyes for Det this week is that it is a home game in front of their hometown fans. Though this seems like a great advantage, after speaking to some of my very knowledgeable contacts, the home field advantage in a game like this is not as great as one may think. With Christmas being less then 24 hours way, it will be very easily for players not to be 100% focused. A team like Det, who is very young and immature, could easily lose focus this time of the yr. From what I am told, these type games also favor the road team, as they are together for days in advance and do not have the “homelife” stealing their focus as they are in a different city with one goal in mind----WINNING.
Det is sitting pretty at 9-5, looking good in the standings. I am not saying that it will happen, but it would be very easy for this young team to come out flat and make stupid mistakes with the pressure of clinching a playoff spot on their minds. This team has not played well at home this year even without that pressure. They are 0-3 vs the 3 playoff teams they have played, and are 3-4 ATS in total. This is including their 5-0 fraudulent start. The Chargers beginning of the season was disastrous as well, but are 3-0 ATS the past 3 weeks and like I said, are obviously not the same team as we saw earlier this season, much like Det. Det has not covered a spread since week 11, yet is still being overvalued. Vegas will take a bad beating this week, as they are offering a great early Christmas present to all of us.
Detroit has been relatively healthy this season, but will still be without their top safety, Louis Delmas , and corner Chris Houston is also still dealing with a knee injury (not sure the extent of this one though). These could be concerns vs a potent passing offense like SD. On offense, from what I could see, Ksmith still did not look like himself this week, so the rushing attack for Det will continue to be average at best.
The Chargers have been slowed by injuries all season, both offensively and defensively. On offense, they have found what seems to be a good solution on the offensive line, while also getting all their playmakers back on the field. The injuries on defense has really taken its toll on this team this season, but as of late, the defensive unit seems to have figured things out (much like the offense), while like I said, holding 6 straight teams to 20 or less.
With all that nonsense said, I see this game as a great spot for the chargers vs an overvalued fraudulent team in Detroit. I expect this line to be closer to a pickem by gametime. The chargers being an underdog, getting an entire field goal seems almost like a joke to me. One of the hottest teams in football going against a team that was lucky/happy just to get by the vikes at home and the raiders on the road, is a nobrainer in my mind. I saw this game coming a few weeks back, and knew that vegas would have no choice but to make the lions a favorite in this spot. The chargers turned their season around in December, as expected, and now is rolling as one of the most talented teams in football clicking on all cylinders. I will never again call a game a lock… but this one just feels like the wrong side is getting three points. I know these numbers dont mean much once the game starts, but when a team that gives up less then 20 on average recently, meets up with a team that cant stop a nose bleed, or a team from scoring 27+, it is a good small ingredient for the recipe for success. The moneyline is the best value I see, but I will be taking the 3 points and running with them. I see a 10 point win for the chargers, without much of a problem. A bad turnover or mishap is all I could see keeping this game close.. even still, getting three points will be more then enough to steal this money from my book.
Ill take the 23-2 December QB and his veteran team against the young overrated Lions in this spot all day every day. Buy your bookie a little gift, and wish him a Merry Christmas as you politely accept the lump of cash he hands you next Monday.
SD +3 for 12 units
4:05 PM ET
San Diego at Detroit
Teams ROT Record Odds
SD
123 7-7 (2-4 V) 51
DET
124 9-5 (4-3 H) -3
This play will be my game of the year. Since my early gambling days 5+ years back (when I used to bet crazy amounts with no rhyme or reason), this will be my largest wager since betting $4,000 on a Colts game a few years back in which they covered and cashed me a nice ticket. I am a $200 unit bettor, and rarely bet more then 3/4 units, usually just 1 or 2, as my spreadsheet shows. Since September 1st, I have surpassed the 100 unit mark including NFl, CFB, and CBB since it has started. NFL has always been my best sport. Up until this week, I had not had a losing week this year. This week I dropped 5 units and am prepared for a nice comeback week. This will be a 12 unit bet for me.
I have had my eye on this play for close to a month now. The play has set up exactly how I had hoped it would. Only small aspect I would have changed is I would have had SD win a closer game vs. Balt last night, rather then a blowout. But, they continued to show the kind of team they are late in the season and how they tide has turned on their season. I was happy to get through the game healthy while continuing the strong play.
To start, lets take a look at this Detroit team that will be taking the field has a home favorite on Christmas Eve. As we all know, Detroit came out hot this year going 5-0 to begin this season. The following two games, they lost at home vs SF then again at home vs Atlanta. I will not hate on them too much for these shortcomings, as SF and Atl are quality playoff caliber teams, and Det played tough with with teams. The following Sunday, October 30th, Detroit showed up at the Mile High Stadium and completely embarrassed the Denver Broncos. This was the last time that fraudulent team showed their fraudulent faces. Since that game, Detroit has slowly gone backwards. They have gone 3-3 since that point, with wins only vs bottom of the barrel Carolina, Minny, and Oakland (who is playing like a bottom 5 team in football right now). Since the 5-0 start, this “playoff “ team is 4-5 with their only quality win being vs Denver (the beginning Tebow, which was also 2 months ago). To take a closer look, lets go back to December 11th at home vs the 2 win Minesota Vikings , who was playing without Adrian Peterson. Detroit allowed Ponder, Joe Webb, and company to go for 425 yards IN THEIR OWN BUILDING (what might phillip rivers do to them?
). Minny coughed the ball up 6 TIMES yet, with just seconds remaining in the game, Joe Webb and the 2 win Vikings, were in position to win the ball game vs this “playoff” Detroit Lions team. As you will remember, Joe Webb was blatantly facemasked inside the 5 yardline, but the ref missed the call, and the game ended with Detroit winning the game by 6. I will not take a win away from Detroit here, but I will remember how this game played out. The following week, just yesterday, Detroit went into the black hole in Oakland. This Oakland Raiders team once again was playing without their best playmaker, DMC, along with their top WR, J.Ford. This was the same team that had lost 77-3 the first three quarters in their previous two games prior to the garbage time 4th quarters. This same Raiders team led this “playoff” Detroit Lions team until the 39 second mark of the game when yes, the better team prevailed. The below average Oakland wrs were able to get behind this Detroit secondary time and time again, but luckily for Detroit, fumbles, drops and bad throws kept them from blowing the game out. The Lions then allowed the Raiders to get into position for a gamewinning kick when luckily, Carson Palmer committed one of the sins of a QB and took a sack that essentially ended the game. So again, I give credit to Det and wont take a win away from them, but I will remember how this game played out.All this so far just to say: this Det lions team could VERY EASILY be 2-7 since their 5-0 start. Detroit has not kept any team below 27 points in 8 WEEKs, since the game vs the Tebows. They are the 2nd most penalized team in football, and their inexperience will show in a big time game this week.
On the opposite side of the ball, lets take a look at the San Diego Chargers. I will not make any excuses for the way this team started the season. But, just like the 5-0 start for the Lions has been long forgotten, the terrible start for the Chargers is long forgotten. Yes Buffalo and Jacksonville are bottom of the barrel teams, just like the minny and oak team that det beat… but, I view these wins as 100% different. The Charges offense, that we all knew was talented, has finally figured things out, just as they normally do this time of the year. They have completely dominated both sides of the ball three straight weeks now, with one of the blowouts being vs the Baltimore Ravens. This team is hot. Offensively, Rivers is back to his probowl self, and has all his weapons healthy once again. Vjax, Floyd, Tolbet, Matthews, Gates are all healthy and good to go. The offensive line has also been shored up, and has figured things out as well as of late, as Rivers has had the time he needs to work, even against that tough Balt Ravens defense. The SD defense has continued their strong play, not allowing any team to go over 20 points in 7 straight weeks. (34 points total in the last three combined). Rivers is a career 23-2 in December. Since the talk of Turner losing his job, this team has shown what they can really do on a football field to back their coach. Now at 7-7, these chargers are within striking distance and know that this game in Detroit is a MUST WIN.
The glaring advantage in most peoples eyes for Det this week is that it is a home game in front of their hometown fans. Though this seems like a great advantage, after speaking to some of my very knowledgeable contacts, the home field advantage in a game like this is not as great as one may think. With Christmas being less then 24 hours way, it will be very easily for players not to be 100% focused. A team like Det, who is very young and immature, could easily lose focus this time of the yr. From what I am told, these type games also favor the road team, as they are together for days in advance and do not have the “homelife” stealing their focus as they are in a different city with one goal in mind----WINNING.
Det is sitting pretty at 9-5, looking good in the standings. I am not saying that it will happen, but it would be very easy for this young team to come out flat and make stupid mistakes with the pressure of clinching a playoff spot on their minds. This team has not played well at home this year even without that pressure. They are 0-3 vs the 3 playoff teams they have played, and are 3-4 ATS in total. This is including their 5-0 fraudulent start. The Chargers beginning of the season was disastrous as well, but are 3-0 ATS the past 3 weeks and like I said, are obviously not the same team as we saw earlier this season, much like Det. Det has not covered a spread since week 11, yet is still being overvalued. Vegas will take a bad beating this week, as they are offering a great early Christmas present to all of us.
Detroit has been relatively healthy this season, but will still be without their top safety, Louis Delmas , and corner Chris Houston is also still dealing with a knee injury (not sure the extent of this one though). These could be concerns vs a potent passing offense like SD. On offense, from what I could see, Ksmith still did not look like himself this week, so the rushing attack for Det will continue to be average at best.
The Chargers have been slowed by injuries all season, both offensively and defensively. On offense, they have found what seems to be a good solution on the offensive line, while also getting all their playmakers back on the field. The injuries on defense has really taken its toll on this team this season, but as of late, the defensive unit seems to have figured things out (much like the offense), while like I said, holding 6 straight teams to 20 or less.
With all that nonsense said, I see this game as a great spot for the chargers vs an overvalued fraudulent team in Detroit. I expect this line to be closer to a pickem by gametime. The chargers being an underdog, getting an entire field goal seems almost like a joke to me. One of the hottest teams in football going against a team that was lucky/happy just to get by the vikes at home and the raiders on the road, is a nobrainer in my mind. I saw this game coming a few weeks back, and knew that vegas would have no choice but to make the lions a favorite in this spot. The chargers turned their season around in December, as expected, and now is rolling as one of the most talented teams in football clicking on all cylinders. I will never again call a game a lock… but this one just feels like the wrong side is getting three points. I know these numbers dont mean much once the game starts, but when a team that gives up less then 20 on average recently, meets up with a team that cant stop a nose bleed, or a team from scoring 27+, it is a good small ingredient for the recipe for success. The moneyline is the best value I see, but I will be taking the 3 points and running with them. I see a 10 point win for the chargers, without much of a problem. A bad turnover or mishap is all I could see keeping this game close.. even still, getting three points will be more then enough to steal this money from my book.
Ill take the 23-2 December QB and his veteran team against the young overrated Lions in this spot all day every day. Buy your bookie a little gift, and wish him a Merry Christmas as you politely accept the lump of cash he hands you next Monday.
SD +3 for 12 units
Excellent, thank you for the thorough write up, fact filled!
I wish more would share info like this when they have it, most posters just lob out "SD is a LOCK" like we are supposed to think they have any credibility. You did your homework and cited some issues that are not commonly known. Well done.
I am waiting to see how Vincent Jackson is... SD's key WR is gimpy with a groin problem... I will actually wait for pregame when the NFL channel & ESPN go from game to game and see what they say. He is such a powerful force, I will still go with SD (I like them, too) but not BIG if Jackson is in question. IF they say he is confident, then I will go BIG.
lolsmcwinsey has SD as the lock of the centry 
